Week 6 Broncos, Panthers, Giants and Browns

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
Broncos:
I smell something here. Maybe is something I ate? Its in my gut, I feel it.

The overall data on Thursday night home favorites are very strong and profitable enough to take blind (assuming the trends continue) Data here >>>>

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com


Now using what I know I have this case that bucks the overall home chalk winning trend. Here >>>>

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

I realize its only 14 games of data but I dont care at all. The trend is strong going against A strong Thursday night Home chalk. Its a regression angle that is highly successful. I believe the Broncos have more in them that what has been put of the field so far this season. It a rivalry that has been dominated by the Chiefs in a long stretch of years.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com

A Broncos team with no covers this season playing on Thursday night. I think the Broncos show up big time this week and make this a game.


Broncos +10.5
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-=-=-=-
 
The Browns fall into a strong ROI data situation this week but the line has not gotten to the exact mark I need. Its has to be +6 or more and I predict it will get there.

Until then its a no play.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com



The 49ers also are in a data position that fails quite often.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

Also as I said in week 6 general discussion The 49 past opponents except for the Cowboys have sucked! One could make a case for the Steelers but they have only been favored 1 time this season.

49ers Played :

Pit 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Rams 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Giants 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Cards 0 favorite and 5 times a dog

Cowboys 4 favorite 1 time a dog

The 49ers played thier last 3 games as home favorites and covered them all. This road chalk game certainly will be more of a challenge.

If the line moves higher to +6 or more I will have more than 1 unit on the Browns.
 
many people find winning difficult.

Well here is a small profitable NFL data system that has lasted the test of time and will continue to thrive.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

Its takes just over 52% winner to profit on a -110 line. Well now one can find reduced lines and this NFL system hits at 54%. Some may squawk its a waste of time or its not enough profits. Well in some cases you could have all your lost wagers back and still turn a profit. If one has an unsuccessful past this maybe of value.

Its conservative and profitable.

Also this da system has had losing seasons, but the record following a losing season is

2002: 51-34 60% ATS
2004: 45-39 54% ATS
2006: 37-42 46% so these were back to back losing seasons but look at what follows. The dogs catch up for a few seasons in a row
2007:44-32
2008: 44-38
2009: 43-35
2010: 43-33

all of this data is linked here

KillerSports.com

killersports.com killersports.com
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
The Browns fall into a strong ROI data situation this week but the line has not gotten to the exact mark I need. Its has to be +6 or more and I predict it will get there.

Until then its a no play.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com



The 49ers also are in a data position that fails quite often.

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

Also as I said in week 6 general discussion The 49 past opponents except for the Cowboys have sucked! One could make a case for the Steelers but they have only been favored 1 time this season.

49ers Played :

Pit 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Rams 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Giants 1 favorite 4 times a dog

Cards 0 favorite and 5 times a dog

Cowboys 4 favorite 1 time a dog

The 49ers played thier last 3 games as home favorites and covered them all. This road chalk game certainly will be more of a challenge.

If the line moves higher to +6 or more I will have more than 1 unit on the Browns.
Click to expand...
what are these 49ers browns trends in laymans terms, little trouble deciphering the coding - edit = just the second one first one is saying home field with rest and line above 6

agree with u on 49ers - since purdy took over they've played lot of average to below averaget teams - they are really good team, but not elite tier like eagles were last year and it showed in playoffs - they have a rather non dynamic offense at its core when facing a team that can shut the run down and i don't think purdy is anything more then serviceable..........for the browns i need to see pj walker - dtr is trash and i prbly trust walker as much as watson plus would get line value if watson still out
 
EL CAPO said:
what are these 49ers browns trends in laymans terms, little trouble deciphering the coding

agree with u on 49ers - since purdy took over they've played lot of average to below averaget teams - they are really good team, but not elite tier like eagles were last year and it showed in playoffs - they have a rather non dynamic offense at its core when facing a team that can shut the run down and i don't think purdy is anything more then serviceable..........for the browns i need to see pj walker - dtr is trash and i prbly trust walker as much as watson plus would get line value if watson still out
Click to expand...
Home dog off a by week getting +6 or more. Its basic but consistant and high ROI

Then the 49ers are also in a bad trend after 3 home favorite games in a row covering all of those playing as a road chalk laying at least -3

2 different angles that the data is strong on the Browns on both.
 
Last edited:
spottie2935 said:
Home dog off a by week getting +6 or more. Its basic but consistant and high ROI

Then the 49ers are also in a bad trend after 3 home favorite games in a row covering all of those playing as a road chalk laying at least -3

2 different angles that the data is strong on the Browns on both.
Click to expand...
2nd one is one i'm not understanding - shows tampa and dallas were last 2 occurances and neither team covered 3 home games in a row
 
AF is the current game is away favorites so the 49ers are away favorites this week and all these away favorites were all previous 3 games consecutively were 3 games in a row as home favorites, In those 3 consecutive home games they covered every game. not even a push. Its line inflation and road games.

the data for these away favorites are 5 covers and 22 fails
 
As I look further at the data the favorite has only won the game SU 12 of 27 chances. Its just a huge situation favoring the books to get a lot of money from most favorite bettors.

They set favorite bettors up to trust a team then walk you to the plank, splash!

One of my superpowers is finding these spots. These are not available every week.
 
spottie2935 said:
AF is the current game is away favorites so the 49ers are away favorites this week and all these away favorites were all previous 3 games consecutively were 3 games in a row as home favorites, In those 3 consecutive home games they covered every game. not even a push. Its line inflation and road games.

the data for these away favorites are 5 covers and 22 fails
Click to expand...
that makes sense except last year dallas did not cover vs houston at home the week prior to going to jax and for tampa i know at least the chiefs game they didn't cover
 
EL CAPO said:
i think the querry is just showing 3 consecutive home games as favorites, not that they covered, before going away
Click to expand...
The first condition is AF

There could be an error the site has a few of them. It’s sucks but there is no better site for this and at 5-22 ats I have room in the ROI for an error.

I didn’t back check the data, sounds like you’re on top of it. Either way these away favorites do very poor.
 

KillerSports

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Okay I see what I did. I posted a lot of links and was confused what your question was.

In this case it is not concerned with covers. It is only concerned with the 3 previous home favorites games. No stipulations on who covered those home games.


AF and p:HF and pp:HF and ppp:HF and not DIV and line<=-3 and season>=2000


AF and 3 previous home games as favorites in all those games. This game is not a division game this line must be at least-3 and higher. All the date is from the year 2000 to present.

5 covers 22 losses


I don’t have a lot of time to go thru these step by step and this site doesn’t have a lot of conversation within threads so I just post and say a few words.

You’re good now
 
Good stuff here! It's tough to jump in front of that 49ers train but this is a great week to fade them. Thanks for posting!
 
spottie2935 said:

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com


Okay I see what I did. I posted a lot of links and was confused what your question was.

In this case it is not concerned with covers. It is only concerned with the 3 previous home favorites games. No stipulations on who covered those home games.


AF and p:HF and pp:HF and ppp:HF and not DIV and line<=-3 and season>=2000


AF and 3 previous home games as favorites in all those games. This game is not a division game this line must be at least-3 and higher. All the date is from the year 2000 to present.

5 covers 22 losses


I don’t have a lot of time to go thru these step by step and this site doesn’t have a lot of conversation within threads so I just post and say a few words.

You’re good now
Click to expand...
now i'm wondering if it is even better trend with the 3 consecutive covers - did you run that one
 

KillerSports

killersports.com killersports.com

p:HF and pp:HF and ppp:HF and ats streak>2 and A and line<-3


Excluding the absurd -15.5 line the dogs are 4-2 SU no points as long as the away favorite line is <-3. The away favorite has to have covered more that 2 in a row
 
dfresh said:
Deshaun mysteriously hasn’t practiced in 10 days. Something fishing going on there
Click to expand...
I trust my systems that I know to be long term winners. I really dont track injuries and such. I know its important to win with good players. Also teams can rally off injuries and missing players. All these variables mean not much in terms of my data.

You do you I am opposite most ppl. I have been here many times.

I have taken some +5 and waiting for a higher line. If it drops it a good sign for me.

The books just took 3 losses against all the majority betting on SF. At some point bettor keep going with the same team get burned.

I could go on but I trust my data and hope the data stays true.
 
Not discrediting your system but if you think DTR (if he starts) is scoring a single TD against the 49ers then you are mistaken.
 
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