Week 6 ~ Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Just trying to get a few in before 8 when Tony still offers nickle lines. Back later with the bs
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SUN 6-3 +1.53u
YTD 138-149-2 -26.296u
  • 903 Philadelphia Phillies -135
  • 916 Detroit Tigers +108
  • 918 Boston Red Sox -222
  • 919 New York Yankees +141
 
Not a big fan of pads, but how can I argue with this

  • 911 San Diego Padres +150
  • 911 San Diego Padres +1½ -145
Away dog of 145 or more with less than 35% win % in division and APR-MAY. Even if you remove month parameter, still over 30% ROI https://goo.gl/v6qMb2

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:)
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers +129
away dog of 140 or less who scores more runs than opp and over 6 rpg L5 and opp starter off bad start over 2+ years
AD and tA(runs) > oA(runs) and Average(runs@team and season, N=5) >= 6 and season > 2015 and line < 140 and os:NQS
SU: 55-49 (0.25, 52.9%) avg line: 114.3 / -124.4 on / against: +$1,298 / -$1,850 ROI: +12.4% / -14.3%

RL: 70-34 (1.66, 67.3%) avg line: -180.1 / 162.2 on / against: +$1,071 / -$1,823 ROI: +5.7% / -17.3%

OU: 54-48-2 (0.30, 52.9%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: +$189 / -$1,062 ROI: +1.6% / -9.3%
 
MON 4-6 -3.08u
YTD 142-155-2 -29.376u

Close calls here and there, just not going my way.
  • 961 Los Angeles Dodgers -188
  • 956 New York Mets -171
Here we go again with big favs...lol
They have actually cashed well this year 48-12 20% ROI.. https://goo.gl/H1xK8c

Also of note, almost as many big favs 185 to 225 this April than the past 2 combined and seems like each year has more

View attachment 32272
 
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  • 974 Minnesota Twins -121
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ +167
Home fav 140 or less off loss to opp and giving up > 7 rpg last 7
HF and Average(o:runs@team and season, N=7) >= 7 and season > 2015 and line >= -140 and SG > 1 and p:L
SU: 19-11 (1.43, 63.3%) avg line: -117.5 / 107.5 on / against: +$648 / -$750 ROI: +18.4% / -24.8%

RL: 14-16 (-0.07, 46.7%) avg line: 167.3 / -186.2 on / against: +$654 / -$909 ROI: +21.8% / -16.3%

OU: 12-17-1 (0.35, 41.4%) avg total: 9.3 over / under: -$675 / +$365 ROI: -20.5% / +11.0%



https://goo.gl/sFf9zK
 
  • 964 San Francisco Giants -146
  • 964 San Francisco Giants -1½ +155


Couple solid trends...
Home fav after walk off win vs same team and scored first in previous game
season >= 2013 and HF and p:WOW and SG > 1 and p:SF > 1
SU: 63-31 (1.18, 67.0%) avg line: -149.0 / 137.7 on / against: +$1,909 / -$2,223 ROI: +13.6% / -23.6%

RL: 50-44 (-0.32, 53.2%) avg line: 146.9 / -161.6 on / against: +$2,771 / -$3,451 ROI: +29.1% / -22.7%

OU: 38-52-4 (-0.32, 42.2%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$1,830 / +$1,045 ROI: -17.8% / +10.0%


Home fav on Tue when both starters have ERA over 5.25(this one is 13-2 last 2 years)
HF and o:STDSERA > 5.25 and STDSERA > 5.25 and season > 2013 and day = Tuesday
SU: 20-7 (1.19, 74.1%) avg line: -142.0 / 131.1 on / against: +$1,038 / -$1,112 ROI: +27.1% / -41.1%

RL: 13-14 (-0.31, 48.1%) avg line: 151.7 / -166.4 on / against: +$598 / -$769 ROI: +21.9% / -17.1%

OU: 13-12-2 (1.81, 52.0%) avg total: 8.8 over / under: -$10 / -$205 ROI: -0.3% / -6.9%
 
TUE 0-5 -5u (NYM cancelled)
MAY 0-5 -5u
YTD 142-160-2 -34.376u

How low can I go??
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  • 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 7½ -120
  • 906 Washington Nationals -195
  • 913 Los Angeles Dodgers +106
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -189
  • 907 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets* Under 7½ -110
  • 921 Texas Rangers/Cleveland Indians* Under 8½ +100
I'll spare the bs until I get some sort of a decent streak rolling. I know no one cares anyways.
Just call me mr"fade"em
:hide:
 
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Toronto has now won 9 in a row on Tuesday. Simply avoided the game
Ross had great history with the ump and I bet on him.
As to the Dodgers you and Bench seem to avoid the fact that Kershaw has become a very average pitcher
 
tuck321 said:
Toronto has now won 9 in a row on Tuesday. Simply avoided the game
Ross had great history with the ump and I bet on him.
As to the Dodgers you and Bench seem to avoid the fact that Kershaw has become a very average pitcher
Click to expand...

Minny was in game, but their pen cost them...again. Kershaw pitched a quality game vs a good team on the road and the pen blew the lead. But I hear you, I don't think CK is average by far, but he definitely hasn't found his groove yet, not bad...just not Kershaw'eske. Nice call with Ross, I actually considered him earlier on but was swayed the other way...such is the way my season has fell...so far. I'm down, but far from out.

GL Bro
 
Kershaw went 6 innings and gave up 2 runs with a ref that he had been superhuman with. And it would not surprise me if Nova won tomorrow he certainly could out pitch Strasburg although 1 trend bothers me
 
  • 905 Pittsburgh Pirates +178
  • 905 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -125
Nova been pretty good the number likely inflated

Home favs of 155 or more after beating opp by over 7 are only 11-24 RL(27% ROI for doggie)
season > 2015 and HF and p:margin > 7 and SG > 2 and line < -155
https://goo.gl/H9mAjL
 
I like the Pirates RL...riding that one with ya...picked up the over today in Cleveland with your temp system, its been working pretty true to form...gl tonight
 
WED 5-4 -0.16u
MAY 5-9 -5.16u
YTD 147-164-2 -34.536u
  • 951 Pittsburgh Pirates/Washington Nationals Over 9½ -105
  • 954 New York Mets -107
  • 953 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Under 8½ +110
  • 958 Houston Astros -1½ +170
  • 958 Houston Astros -122
  • 957 New York Yankees/Houston Astros Under 8 -115
  • 969 Toronto Blue Jays/Cleveland Indians Over 8½ -105
  • 970 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110 https://goo.gl/wHUwqw
  • 970 Cleveland Indians -184
  • 956 Arizona Diamondbacks -120
McCullers good early season pitcher and Tanaka has shown regression, how's this trend RL ROI +172%

View attachment 32287

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BenchCoach said:
I like the Pirates RL...riding that one with ya...picked up the over today in Cleveland with your temp system, its been working pretty true to form...gl tonight
Click to expand...

yeah, both nats and tribe hit the va's...let's bang 'em again today
 
Well, I do believe maybe I'm snakebitten...so many chance and they all go south. My losses are kinda ridiculous, nothing I cant afford, but idiotic. I love the action, but will prolly just play 20 dolla plays for awhile on the down low. Sometimes I think posting my picks jinxes me. Anyway I'll be on a break Not quitting or done, just a reset break.

Good luck gentlemen!

View attachment 32305
 
could only stand it one day...I'm back although I'm using lower unit value
  • 951 Chicago Cubs +111
  • 953 Philadelphia Phillies/Washington Nationals Over 9 -105
  • 965 Cleveland Indians/New York Yankees Over 9 -115
  • 965 Cleveland Indians +101
  • 967 Detroit Tigers +1½ -160
  • 973 Boston Red Sox -150
No BS stats unless I can put together some kind of winning streak
 
  • 961 Colorado Rockies +113
  • 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Over 9 -112
Also boxed 5-6-7-10 in derby trifecta
 
5-4 Sat
  • 911 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Over 8½ -120
  • 912 San Diego Padres +1½ -115
  • 912 San Diego Padres +150
  • 902 New York Mets -175
  • 909 Miami Marlins +104
  • 929 Houston Astros -193
  • 916 New York Yankees -135
  • 906 Washington Nationals -1½ +120
  • 906 Washington Nationals -189
  • 924 Texas Rangers +1½ +125
  • 924 Texas Rangers +220
https://goo.gl/5x6dRu
https://goo.gl/JQf3H4

team = Padres and temperature > 70 and H and season > 2014 and month < 6
SU: 7-10 (-2.29, 41.2%) avg line: 107.4 / -117.6 on / against: -$312 / +$240 ROI: -17.3% / +11.8%

RL: 6-11 (-1.85, 35.3%) avg line: 102.1 / -119.5 on / against: -$619 / +$471 ROI: -28.1% / +19.8%

OU: 14-3-0 (1.97, 82.4%) avg total: 7.4 over / under: +$1,085 / -$1,157 ROI: +55.3% / -64.2%

Should be mid 70 is SD today ;)
 
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add
  • 902 New York Mets -1½ +125
Away dogs over 150 off 4 game win streak last 3+ years...don't fair well
500cde52-4d27-41fe-bee4-a9e9983ac32f.png
 
couple more...
  • 926 Oakland Athletics -165
  • 926 Oakland Athletics -1½ +125
season >= 2013 and HF and p:WOW and p:SF >= 1 and SG > 1
SU: 144-69 (1.33, 67.6%) avg line: -154.6 / 142.2 on / against: +$4,544 / -$5,312 ROI: +13.8% / -24.9%
RL: 109-103 (-0.17, 51.4%) avg line: 143.4 / -157.6 on / against: +$4,852 / -$6,320 ROI: +22.6% / -18.8%
OU: 94-107-11 (0.33, 46.8%) avg total: 8.2 over / under: -$2,164 / +$368 ROI: -9.3% / +1.6%
 
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