I am going to take two weeks in a row here. Hunt is swamped with work right now, so here we go...
I will not lie; I saw no part of the Nebraska and Indiana game this week. No doubt, I am happy for the Nebraska program to get a much-needed win. The first thing that pops out to me in this box score was the rushing for both teams...
Indiana 23 for 67 (and that is with a long of 34)
Nebraska 51 for 115 (wtf)
The next thing I noticed was penalties...
Indiana 11-92
Nebraska 12-111
Lastly, Indiana scored ALL of their points in the 2nd quarter.
So, after winning three early games, the Hoosiers are starting to come down to where they should be. This was a popular RSW under pick amongst the cappers here and all-over social media. The only winnable games left are Rutgers and Michigan State. This was a big loss for that bet.
The Bert Bowl had some wild complications for the conference and the University of Wisconsin. This game prompted a coaching change. Man, I miss Fondy right now because I would be very curious his reaction to this situation. The other quieter result here is this... we have some future opponents that are starting to take the Illinois team a bit more seriously...
Illinois dominated the 2nd half. Take away the garbage time 51-yard drive that ran the clock out and the Badgers had a grand total of 27 second half yards. Once again, like the Wazzou game, turnovers were detrimental to the Badgers. Illinois isn't flashy, but they get the job done. Bert ball at its finest.
Well, Purdue got a much-needed win versus a short-handed Minnesota team (had no clue about Ibrahim till early first quarter). our guy @PaintCrew came through with the play for us (and I'll note this was tee dubs big play last week). Minnesota is a very solid team, but that missing piece killed their offense. Tanner put up yards, but those picks were simply too much. Boilers had a very balanced attack and their giveaways only led to 3 points total. When you add in a missed FG and SOD's, Minnesota really had 5 giveaways in my book. Big win for a Purdue team that has lost some heartbreakers...
On my initial list of leans was maybe a Penn State team total of some sorts. I appreciate all the reading I did the day before the games and that helped me to not underestimate Northwestern. I simply left this game alone. This game was ugly, with EIGHT total turnovers. Here is another game where the rushing numbers pop out to me...
Northwestern 28 for 31
Penn State 58 for 220
Not too much more for me to say here, this was ugly.
Maryland rebounded from the loss in A2 to take care of Michigan State in College Park. The 2nd half of this game was just odd, as only 2 FG's were put on the board. Both teams had long drives that ended in downs. The Terps also missed a FG. I kind of thought at halftime that this could be a wild second half, but the complete opposite occurred. So, let's look at some positives each way...
Michigan State:
-Run game was by committee but they broke 100 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. This is a building block, as they have only run well versus non-P5 teams.
-Thorne didn't throw any interceptions.
-Jayden Reed had a nice game. They need him at full strength.
Maryland:
-Little Tua played and was near 80% accuracy.
-Averaged 5 yards per carry on the way to 175.
-Dominated time of possession.
Ohio State, as expected, rolled Rutgers. I saw 21-7 very early 2ndf quarter and then nothing happened till the very end of the 1st half. This was a game for rushing, not passing for the Buckeyes. Stroud was pretty average (for his expectations). Miyan Williaams had 20 carries for 119 yards and 1 other carry for 70. He was damn good.
Seems to me that Rutgers wanted to control the ball as much as possible, with over 33 minutes of possession. That is fine and dandy, but with a bad offense, you won't get very far. Obviously the most exciting part of this game was the fake punt and aftermath. You could tell Day had buyer's remorse after as Shiano would have him for dinner. Hey, there is a reason I/we bet a lot of Buckeye totals, and that is Ryan day more times than not will run things up. Urban had kind of gotten away from those his last 1-2 years.
Last, but not least, the team you love to hate -- The Michigan Wolverines. This trip to Iowa City played out a lot better than the last several times... and JJ was awarded his first career Big Ten road win (no easy feat). The gameplan to start off on offense was absolutely brilliant. Jim had supposedly tore into his offensive coaches early in the week about the Maryland gameplan, and you could see some positive results. That first drive was beautiful. The next drive was going great until JJ tripped over his lineman pulling away from center. The last two possessions of the half both resulted in FG's. The redzone play here wasn't all that great. With that being said, Michigan possessed the ball 4 times and moved it pretty easily. Only a trip and some failures near the EZ kept this from being an absolute blowout. Iowa had 3 brutal possessions couple with a pretty nice one that stalled out.
The big question at halftime; Can the Wolverines put this one away, or did they leave the door too open?
Well, the start of the 2nd half couldn't have gone better. The defense forced a 3 and out and UM followed up with a 10 play, 67-yard touchdown drive. The score was 20-0 and even your author, a true pessimist thought this was over. The teams traded punts, but Michigan made their first mistake. Heavy pressure forced JJ to scramble and an attempt to throw it away went sideways. Donovan Edwards luckily hustled like heck, but the resulting punt have Iowa the ball in plus territory. Petras had a few beautiful passes on this particular drive and the Hawkeyes had life.
Iowa forced a punt and started driving right down the field. They had UM on the ropes, but the defense stiffened in red zone and stopped the Hawks on down. A quick punt and Michigan once again had to be on defense. This time, they got great pressure and forced a turnover on downs. Corum ran one in on 3rd down to seal the victory. Fwiw, Iowa got a cheap one at the end much like Maryland the week before. Now, for those of us who bet Iowa LIVE at 16.5 right before their first score, we'll take it (better lucky than good, sometimes.
Pretty clean game overall, except some weird penalties both ways. Very nice win for Michigan, and JJ was very under control except for one play. Blake is just a beast right now and Edwards being back is huge. The concerns are on defense. These corners have played absolutely great. What we need to see is maybe some of these guys that get to the quarterback more successfully seeing more snaps. Linebacker is the weakness on this team right now. Junior Colson, a future all-American, had his worst game I have seen in either year. He'll improve.
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Alright, let us move on to WEEK #6 in conference....
First, and foremost, ticket prices..
-As low as 59 bucks in Bloomington
-27 bucks gets you in the door for a showcase Friday night game in Jersey
-How do you feel about spending a Saturday afternoon in College Park? 30 bucks and you'll get to see Jeff Brohm
-Ryan Field will soon undergo a renovation. Now is the time to get that final visit, 37 bucks
-Nothing is better than a Saturday afternoon into the evening in East Landfill. 55 bucks is the rate with OSU coming to town
-Coming off the win in the Bert Bowl, tickets are in demand. A surprising 57 bucks for a primetime showdown versus Iowa
Penn State and Minnesota are taking the week off...
So before we dive into this week, next weeks slate....
-Penn State at Michigan (top 10 matchup most likely)
-Nebraska at Purdue (these matchups are always interesting)
-Wisconsin at Michigan State (this is almost a must win for Sparty)
-Minnesota at Illinois (huge, huge game in the WEST)
-Maryland at Indiana (these types of games the Terps must win to get to the next level)
Alright, almost there, but I want to look at a very important team statistic before we go further...
PASS DEFENSE:
Leading the country is Tulane at 123.6 yards per game
On the other end of the spectrum is the Ohio Bobcats at 380.6 yards per game
The top 12 in pass defense includes these teams..
Minnesota
Ohio State
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
(all 140-160 ypg)
On the other end...
Penn State
Michigan State
Indiana
(all 262-277 ypg).
Just food for thought. Coincidentally, these are Michigan's next three opponents.
Okay, this is exhausting, hehe. Onward and upward...
Nebraska heads to Rutgers laying a FG with a total around 51. I'll say it right now, anyone betting the Huskers as chalk has ice in their veins. This is the type of game for the Scarlet Knights to find something on offense. My first instinct here is over. The Huskers will score some points and will give some up. The big thing here will be tempo. Rutgers can bog any game down...
Undefeated Michigan heads to Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers. This game, on the road, scares me every year. There was 3 straight games at this venue in the 2010's that were right down to the wire. I have nightmares of that dumb Hoosier fight song being played all too much. This year, Michigan needs to come in focused and execute on offense. They should be able to be a bit more aggressive through the air, and I hope they are. The continued maturation of the young guy counts on this. I feel like a TT will be in play at some point. I know I won't be posting it because those lose this year (unposted Mich bets FTW). I do think this team takes care of business but not without an early scare. I'll say, without looking at weather, this is a 43-17 type of game.
Big crossover game in College Park. Both these teams want to get to that next level in conference. So, who wants this more? Both QB's played last week despite the injury bug. The point spread says this is basically a toss-up on a neutral field. Time shall tell, I'll await some thoughts from @Timh and @PaintCrew .
New coach in Wisconsin this week. We have seen in CFB a few changes already. The Huskers got blown out by Oklahoma while Arizona State didn't fare well versus Utah in their first games with a new regime... The Cats played hard last week, and this is certainly no layup. With another road game on deck next week, Wisconsin badly needs a win here. Total is 44.5 and I am sure some sort of under can get cashed here (quarters, halves, team totals -- break it down).
The powerful Buckeye offense heads up to East Lansing to take on a struggling Spartan squad. This line is rising, and for good reason, right? What was the score at halftime last year? I believe 49-0. That was one of my biggest bets all of last fall and the easiest cash. This is a 'circle the wagons' type of game for Michigan State. Mel is a defensive guy, so he really needs to take charge. As far as I am concerned, this is a game you throw the kitchen sink at offensively and try to score, score and score. Stroud should have a field day like any good QB. I'm not sure about pregame bets here. I think after getting a feel for things early on a bet will present itself.
Illinois has to be feeling good about themselves right now. This game is a bit 'trappy' after the Bert Bowl. This O/U is freaky low. I honestly couldn't tell ya here. Iowa will always play hard. Do they feel better about themselves on offense after the last two weeks of moving the ball somewhat? We shall see... no betting interest here from myself...
I will not lie; I saw no part of the Nebraska and Indiana game this week. No doubt, I am happy for the Nebraska program to get a much-needed win. The first thing that pops out to me in this box score was the rushing for both teams...
Indiana 23 for 67 (and that is with a long of 34)
Nebraska 51 for 115 (wtf)
The next thing I noticed was penalties...
Indiana 11-92
Nebraska 12-111
Lastly, Indiana scored ALL of their points in the 2nd quarter.
So, after winning three early games, the Hoosiers are starting to come down to where they should be. This was a popular RSW under pick amongst the cappers here and all-over social media. The only winnable games left are Rutgers and Michigan State. This was a big loss for that bet.
The Bert Bowl had some wild complications for the conference and the University of Wisconsin. This game prompted a coaching change. Man, I miss Fondy right now because I would be very curious his reaction to this situation. The other quieter result here is this... we have some future opponents that are starting to take the Illinois team a bit more seriously...
Illinois dominated the 2nd half. Take away the garbage time 51-yard drive that ran the clock out and the Badgers had a grand total of 27 second half yards. Once again, like the Wazzou game, turnovers were detrimental to the Badgers. Illinois isn't flashy, but they get the job done. Bert ball at its finest.
Well, Purdue got a much-needed win versus a short-handed Minnesota team (had no clue about Ibrahim till early first quarter). our guy @PaintCrew came through with the play for us (and I'll note this was tee dubs big play last week). Minnesota is a very solid team, but that missing piece killed their offense. Tanner put up yards, but those picks were simply too much. Boilers had a very balanced attack and their giveaways only led to 3 points total. When you add in a missed FG and SOD's, Minnesota really had 5 giveaways in my book. Big win for a Purdue team that has lost some heartbreakers...
On my initial list of leans was maybe a Penn State team total of some sorts. I appreciate all the reading I did the day before the games and that helped me to not underestimate Northwestern. I simply left this game alone. This game was ugly, with EIGHT total turnovers. Here is another game where the rushing numbers pop out to me...
Northwestern 28 for 31
Penn State 58 for 220
Not too much more for me to say here, this was ugly.
Maryland rebounded from the loss in A2 to take care of Michigan State in College Park. The 2nd half of this game was just odd, as only 2 FG's were put on the board. Both teams had long drives that ended in downs. The Terps also missed a FG. I kind of thought at halftime that this could be a wild second half, but the complete opposite occurred. So, let's look at some positives each way...
Michigan State:
-Run game was by committee but they broke 100 yards and averaged 4.5 yards per carry. This is a building block, as they have only run well versus non-P5 teams.
-Thorne didn't throw any interceptions.
-Jayden Reed had a nice game. They need him at full strength.
Maryland:
-Little Tua played and was near 80% accuracy.
-Averaged 5 yards per carry on the way to 175.
-Dominated time of possession.
Ohio State, as expected, rolled Rutgers. I saw 21-7 very early 2ndf quarter and then nothing happened till the very end of the 1st half. This was a game for rushing, not passing for the Buckeyes. Stroud was pretty average (for his expectations). Miyan Williaams had 20 carries for 119 yards and 1 other carry for 70. He was damn good.
Seems to me that Rutgers wanted to control the ball as much as possible, with over 33 minutes of possession. That is fine and dandy, but with a bad offense, you won't get very far. Obviously the most exciting part of this game was the fake punt and aftermath. You could tell Day had buyer's remorse after as Shiano would have him for dinner. Hey, there is a reason I/we bet a lot of Buckeye totals, and that is Ryan day more times than not will run things up. Urban had kind of gotten away from those his last 1-2 years.
Last, but not least, the team you love to hate -- The Michigan Wolverines. This trip to Iowa City played out a lot better than the last several times... and JJ was awarded his first career Big Ten road win (no easy feat). The gameplan to start off on offense was absolutely brilliant. Jim had supposedly tore into his offensive coaches early in the week about the Maryland gameplan, and you could see some positive results. That first drive was beautiful. The next drive was going great until JJ tripped over his lineman pulling away from center. The last two possessions of the half both resulted in FG's. The redzone play here wasn't all that great. With that being said, Michigan possessed the ball 4 times and moved it pretty easily. Only a trip and some failures near the EZ kept this from being an absolute blowout. Iowa had 3 brutal possessions couple with a pretty nice one that stalled out.
The big question at halftime; Can the Wolverines put this one away, or did they leave the door too open?
Well, the start of the 2nd half couldn't have gone better. The defense forced a 3 and out and UM followed up with a 10 play, 67-yard touchdown drive. The score was 20-0 and even your author, a true pessimist thought this was over. The teams traded punts, but Michigan made their first mistake. Heavy pressure forced JJ to scramble and an attempt to throw it away went sideways. Donovan Edwards luckily hustled like heck, but the resulting punt have Iowa the ball in plus territory. Petras had a few beautiful passes on this particular drive and the Hawkeyes had life.
Iowa forced a punt and started driving right down the field. They had UM on the ropes, but the defense stiffened in red zone and stopped the Hawks on down. A quick punt and Michigan once again had to be on defense. This time, they got great pressure and forced a turnover on downs. Corum ran one in on 3rd down to seal the victory. Fwiw, Iowa got a cheap one at the end much like Maryland the week before. Now, for those of us who bet Iowa LIVE at 16.5 right before their first score, we'll take it (better lucky than good, sometimes.
Pretty clean game overall, except some weird penalties both ways. Very nice win for Michigan, and JJ was very under control except for one play. Blake is just a beast right now and Edwards being back is huge. The concerns are on defense. These corners have played absolutely great. What we need to see is maybe some of these guys that get to the quarterback more successfully seeing more snaps. Linebacker is the weakness on this team right now. Junior Colson, a future all-American, had his worst game I have seen in either year. He'll improve.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Alright, let us move on to WEEK #6 in conference....
First, and foremost, ticket prices..
-As low as 59 bucks in Bloomington
-27 bucks gets you in the door for a showcase Friday night game in Jersey
-How do you feel about spending a Saturday afternoon in College Park? 30 bucks and you'll get to see Jeff Brohm
-Ryan Field will soon undergo a renovation. Now is the time to get that final visit, 37 bucks
-Nothing is better than a Saturday afternoon into the evening in East Landfill. 55 bucks is the rate with OSU coming to town
-Coming off the win in the Bert Bowl, tickets are in demand. A surprising 57 bucks for a primetime showdown versus Iowa
Penn State and Minnesota are taking the week off...
So before we dive into this week, next weeks slate....
-Penn State at Michigan (top 10 matchup most likely)
-Nebraska at Purdue (these matchups are always interesting)
-Wisconsin at Michigan State (this is almost a must win for Sparty)
-Minnesota at Illinois (huge, huge game in the WEST)
-Maryland at Indiana (these types of games the Terps must win to get to the next level)
Alright, almost there, but I want to look at a very important team statistic before we go further...
PASS DEFENSE:
Leading the country is Tulane at 123.6 yards per game
On the other end of the spectrum is the Ohio Bobcats at 380.6 yards per game
The top 12 in pass defense includes these teams..
Minnesota
Ohio State
Michigan
Illinois
Iowa
(all 140-160 ypg)
On the other end...
Penn State
Michigan State
Indiana
(all 262-277 ypg).
Just food for thought. Coincidentally, these are Michigan's next three opponents.
Okay, this is exhausting, hehe. Onward and upward...
Nebraska heads to Rutgers laying a FG with a total around 51. I'll say it right now, anyone betting the Huskers as chalk has ice in their veins. This is the type of game for the Scarlet Knights to find something on offense. My first instinct here is over. The Huskers will score some points and will give some up. The big thing here will be tempo. Rutgers can bog any game down...
Undefeated Michigan heads to Bloomington to take on the Hoosiers. This game, on the road, scares me every year. There was 3 straight games at this venue in the 2010's that were right down to the wire. I have nightmares of that dumb Hoosier fight song being played all too much. This year, Michigan needs to come in focused and execute on offense. They should be able to be a bit more aggressive through the air, and I hope they are. The continued maturation of the young guy counts on this. I feel like a TT will be in play at some point. I know I won't be posting it because those lose this year (unposted Mich bets FTW). I do think this team takes care of business but not without an early scare. I'll say, without looking at weather, this is a 43-17 type of game.
Big crossover game in College Park. Both these teams want to get to that next level in conference. So, who wants this more? Both QB's played last week despite the injury bug. The point spread says this is basically a toss-up on a neutral field. Time shall tell, I'll await some thoughts from @Timh and @PaintCrew .
New coach in Wisconsin this week. We have seen in CFB a few changes already. The Huskers got blown out by Oklahoma while Arizona State didn't fare well versus Utah in their first games with a new regime... The Cats played hard last week, and this is certainly no layup. With another road game on deck next week, Wisconsin badly needs a win here. Total is 44.5 and I am sure some sort of under can get cashed here (quarters, halves, team totals -- break it down).
The powerful Buckeye offense heads up to East Lansing to take on a struggling Spartan squad. This line is rising, and for good reason, right? What was the score at halftime last year? I believe 49-0. That was one of my biggest bets all of last fall and the easiest cash. This is a 'circle the wagons' type of game for Michigan State. Mel is a defensive guy, so he really needs to take charge. As far as I am concerned, this is a game you throw the kitchen sink at offensively and try to score, score and score. Stroud should have a field day like any good QB. I'm not sure about pregame bets here. I think after getting a feel for things early on a bet will present itself.
Illinois has to be feeling good about themselves right now. This game is a bit 'trappy' after the Bert Bowl. This O/U is freaky low. I honestly couldn't tell ya here. Iowa will always play hard. Do they feel better about themselves on offense after the last two weeks of moving the ball somewhat? We shall see... no betting interest here from myself...
