Week 6 AAF thread

[spongerat]

Lots of overs! Did they finally figure out how to score? Still a ton of turnovers too. I believe I would have won the AZ bet if they could hold on to the ball but no one wins if they turn it over 5 times. At least ORL beat Birm as predicted.

I have initial output from my model. I was looking at previous weeks and I have the right weighting dialied in now. If I had gone with the exact output I'd have been on the right side in nearly every game.


Week 6 schedule

Mem @ SL
Should be a close low scoring game

AZ @ ORL
Orl all day.

SA @ ATL
WTF SA, this week they scored so much I don't know how to view them anymore. Atl has done a solid 180 too.

Birm @ SD
should be low scoring?

 

[spongerat]

Finished data entry for my model, had to go manual this week as my data scraper isn't working anymore for some reason.
My lines:
Mem -2
SL 43

AZ +7
ORL 45

SA +2.5
ATL 40

Birm +1.5
SD 38.5

 

[spongerat]

Openers are up! AZ/ARL and SA/ATL are about as I expected. Birm is a bigger dog than I thought and Mem is a much bigger dog.

Mem +8.5
SL 40

AZ +9
Orl 42.5

SA +1.5
ATL 40.5

Birm +6
SD 35.5

 

[spongerat]

Openers are up! AZ/ARL and SA/ATL are about as I expected. Birm is a bigger dog than I thought and Mem is a much bigger dog.

Mem +8.5
SL 40

Dammit I'm an idiot.

I see why their line is Mem +8.5 and mine was -2.5, I made an error during data input since it was manual this week. I had one digit wrong and it threw things off. When I fixed it my line came out as Mem +5.64 and a total of 39.28. Oh well. With that fixed I think Mem +8.5 is a play and the under 40.