Week 6 ~ 2021

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [0-1 -4u]
2021 - [41-45 -14.45u]

• 5.5/5 Buccaneers -6½

Guess I'm on Bucs bandwagon tonight

 

[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [0-1 -4u]
2021 - [41-45 -14.45u]

SUNDAY:

• 3.57/5 Jaguars +140
• 4.40/4 Jaguars +3 -110

View attachment 59308

After 30 years of playing the line, I really don't remember ever losing like Thursday where a team goes for 2 points and gets it when there is absolutely zero reason to go for 2??? That one really puzzled me.


randoms...

• JAGS +3 ...a golden opportunity for the Jaguars’ to end their 20-game losing skid seems obvious. Jax is London’s adopted NFL child, making their 8th trip across the pond where they are 3-4 SU & ATS. Just remember, teams owning the better are 18-7-1 SU and 16-10 ATS all-time in this International Series. In fact, winless teams are 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS in London. The Fish are a sparkling 6-0-1 ATS in Game Six of the season since 2014, while the Jags have lost 11 consecutive Game Sixes, while going 0-6 ATS during the L6. However, MIA has been outscored 19 PPG without Tua, and appear to be a ship without a rudder at the moment. Jags fit strange system where winless non-division dogs in Game Six or later coming off DD ATS loss are an amazing 30-7 81% ATS since 1980. I think the stars align for the Jags today and Lawrence shows enough to get their fir win of the year. Statistically JAX has some good spots...at least comparable to MIA. 5.3 yards per rush and only 3.8 yards per rush allowed where MIA is 3.8 for and 4.4 against. Even though Lawrence only averages 6.2 yards per pass attempt, MIA is league worse at 5.1 per attempt. Big wrench in the fan will be if Tua comes back and plays well, which really seems like a longshot best I can tell. He likely gives it a shot, but I don't see him shining.

 

[mrpickem]

Main card...

• 5/4.81 PACKERS -6 -104
• 4/3.96 PANTHERS +2½ -101
• 3/3.75 PANTHERS +125
• 5/4.63 LIONS +3½ -108
• 5.15/5 RAMS -8 -103
• 5/4.81 RAMS / GIANTS under 48½ -104
• 5/4.90 BROWNS -3½ -102
• 5/5.00 COWBOYS -3½ +100
• 5/4.35 WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM +7 -115
• 5/4.76 RAVENS -2½ -105

randoms...

• PACK -6 ...the basic
  
  message in typical Bears-Packers forecast has been, “Aaron Rogers owns Bears.” The Packers are 21-3 SU, 17-7 ATS vs. the Bears since the 2009 season, when a 7-9 Chicago team was using Jay Cutler, supported by RB Matt Forte and receivers Greg Olson, Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and Johnny Knox to joust in vain against Rogers and the Pack. To deviate from a long-appreciated formula is to ask for trouble, like when Coca-Cola introduced new Coke! I do tend to back home dogs that appear to have the better defense. That much is true as the Bears allow 20 ppg, Green Bay 24. The Packers’ D has a 14-2 TD-INT allowed. Not good, on the surface. It’s why I was on the Bengals last week. But the Bears’ best RB is on IR and their QBs have 2-3 TD-INT in 5 games. One QB is inexperienced and slightly injured. Another is slightly injured, experienced, but ineffective so far. RIDING THE PACKERS 31-14ish
• BALTY -2½ ...The Indy-Balt game on Monday night was entertaining with 400+ passing yards by both the Colts’ Wentz and Lamar Jackson. Still Wentz’s team lost the game and Jackson’s team didn’t cover. When Baltimore runs for less than 100 yards, they aren’t Baltimore anymore and will need a prayer to get the job done for their backers (Colts’ underrated run D the key). Ravens lay a field goal (and the hook?) off a hard fought overtime win, a short week, and with Cincy on deck. But the Chargers’ D allows more rushing yards per game than anybody else (158, if you’re scoring at home). Browns’ coach Kevin Stefanski saw that, and his Cleveland RBs are still running through holes in their sleep, wondering how they lost that game. BALTIMORE should roll... 33-27ish

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[mrpickem]

NFL

LAST - [6-6 +1.57u]
2021 - [47-51 -12.88u]

SUNDAY:

• 4.5/4.21 Bills -6 -107
• 5/4.81 BILLS over 53½ -104

randoms...

The Bills had success

vs KC by allowing their defenders to play back, knowing they could stop KC running with just their front four. They’ll have to commit more personnel to contain the power running of Derrick Henry in this match-up, a scenario that typically favors the power-running, deep-shot pass offense which Tennessee owns, because the safeties are eventually forced to move nearer the line of scrimmage. Tennessee averages 168 rushing yards per game, 128 by the bruising Henry. It’s a lot of volume as his yards per carry works out to 4.4, good but not great. Expect the Bills to load up to force Ryan Tannehill to beat them. Thing is, he might beat their defense, given the match-up. But can the Titans’ defense –not much pressure up front, coming off sub-par Jets and Jacksonville offenses with rookie QBs -- prevent Josh Allen and the Bills’ offense from doing more business? Not likely, but 6 is substantial and of course the have the the over priced high. Still Ima ride with the Allen Express!