Week 6 1-AA Discussion......

[hoopsstar22]

10-3-1 YTD.....

4-1-1 Week 5...


Lets get the talk started.

Interesting Matchups -

Wofford @ The Citadel - Winner will have the upper hand in the So Con.

Deleware @ New Hampshire - A collision of powers. This will be very interesting. If Delweare is catching points, this will be a must play. Maybe we'll get lucky, and see an o/u on this one too, and play the over anywhere up to 70.

NC A&T @ Morgan St. - NCAT blows, and won't score more than a few FG's, if that. I'm sure the line will reflect this.

Youngstown St. @ S. Illinois - Another huge matchup. The Salukis are scoring about 100 per game, and YSU has been a power fro years and years. Lean to SI at home, will see what the line is.


I'll keep searching, and let me know if you guys find anything else.

 

[hoopsstar22]

I'm leaning heavy on Wofford right now. After looking over The Citadel's impressive D#'s, I realized that they are a little skewed for a few reasons.
Competition - Sure, they connected on some quick hitters, and hung with Wisconsin a few weeks ago, but they haven't played anyone else yet. Charleston Southern was game 1, and they are in a down year. Webber International. I can't remember off the top of my head, but I think they were an NAIA team (D3 with scholarships), and just absolutely terrible. I called Chattanooga's bluff last week, as The Citadel easily rolled them, as they should.

Wofford's offense will create problems for this untested D.

Hopefully Wofford is catching points, with it being on the road, but a play will all depend on what it looks like.

 

[hoopsstar22]

More potential matchups of interest.....

Maine @ Hofstra - Maine can't score, and Hofstra should score a few at least.

Western Illinois @ Indiana St. - Indiana State can't stop the run, WI can run the ball. Indiana St. can't move the ball on O, WI has a good D.

 

[frankiegotti]

That western illinois game initially caught my eye as well, i would have to think they'd be giving up a good amount. Like you said in the beginning hoopstar, it is all going to depend on the line. Just trying to wait patiently for the lines to come out.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Wofford +1

 

[hoopsstar22]

Delaware -1

 

[hoopsstar22]

GA Southern +8 - Tried to hit this for 100, but 5Dimes said its a circled game? What is up with this line?

 

[hoopsstar22]

Hofstra -8.5 - Maine won't score more than a TD if they're lucky.

Arkansas -46 - Ummm... Chattanooga has the #101 1-AA rushing D, and a #100+ offense. Perhaps a middle opportunity as the week progresses.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Another unit on GA Southern +7 - I'm still having trouble finding a reason this SD State is laying this much chalk, on the road, to this team.

Yes, the did just beat Steven F. Austin 45-0, but where did all those points come from? Looking at the box score, they only scored 3 TD's on offense, so where are the other 24 points? They also benefited from 5 INT's by 2 SFA QB's.

I'm still looking for answers. SD State's website absolutely blows, the 2007 schedule is the only piece of info from this season, and it's not even updated with results, so I'll have to dig a little more.

 

[hoopsstar22]

I guess Saragin is the only thing SD St. has going for them.

They have played a tough schedule, and was competitive with YSU in a 17-23 loss, but they have given up 275, 186, and 216 yards on the ground in their 3 losses. GA Southern will put up 300+.

Also, I think they are getting too much credit for their 17-31 loss to N. Iowa a few weeks ago, but how it wasn't a 50 point blowout, I don't know. They were out FD 25-13. 1 scoring drive was 2 plays, a 13 yard run, and a 57 yard pass.

I'll be sticking with this play, no doubt.

 

[PokeyFSU]

I am with ya on GA Southern, Hoops, seems to me like the wrong team is favored here, I think the books still have the UTC disaster in the back of their mind and that rushing attack isnt getting the credit one would think they deserve, plus its a home game. Lookin to move my 1AA record to 5-0 this weekend and that game looks like the one to do it!

:shake:

 

[metsrp86]

Any thoughts on Liberty +18.5 against Toledo? I think they can keep this came pretty close maybe within a score or two...

 

[hoopsstar22]

metsr-

I would say be careful with this one. Liberty is in the Big South, a very weak conference this year. 2 of their 3 wins came against D2 schools, and their other win was against a bottom 100 team in St Francis, all at home. On the road, they let Elon's a freshman quarterback put up 368 yds in a 42-14 loss, and William and Mary put up over 350 yards in the air.

Also, their rankings are all in the middle of the pack for 1AA, despite playing those 2 D2 schools.

I do remember from a few weeks ago though, that Liberty does have a pretty sweet message board, go there and check out what their fans and alumni are saying.

GL

 

[metsrp86]

Thanks for the heads up...it will prob be a no play for me

 

[hoopsstar22]

Removing Arkansas... Don't think the opportunity will present its self.

Delaware is getting spanked at the half. UNH's D decided to show up today I guess.

 

[hoopsstar22]

Week 6 Recap....

4-1 Saturday..
15-4-1 YTD....


We didn't really have much of a discussion this week, which was a little disappointing, but still managed to have a great day. Hopefully we can get a little more discussion going around for next weekend.


Delaware -1 ... L 30-35 ... UNH held off the comeback and played some great D in the 1st half.
Hofstra -8.5 .. W - 38-13 Hofstra basically dominated Maine from the get go.
Wofford +1 .....W 28-7 .. Tied 7-7 at the half, Wofford came out and pounded the ball down the Citadel's throat in the 2H, for the easy win.
GA Southern +7 & +8 .... W 41-38.. This had to have been an exciting game to watch. Ga Southern was crushing, 31-7 at the Half, but a huge rally by SD St. tied it up at 38's, then Ga Southern kicked a 54yd field goal on the final play, to give us the SU win, and the easy, but dramatic cover.

 

[metsrp86]

Nice weekend (ans season so far) hoops...I like betting on 1AA games, just dont have the time to research all these teams in addition to 1A teams (I had a lean towards Liberty, but I dont like betting on teams I havent seen play). I appreciate your insight into these games. I would probably wager more, but I think 5Dimes has $100 limits on these games, right?

 

[carolinablue]

Hoops - Just want to say that you are doing a great job on these 1-AA plays this season, keep up the nice work!

My biggest issue with the plays at 5dimes are the limits. It isn't worth it for me to do $57.50 (-115) plays over there at open and then hope for the lines to be at least in the same stratosphere by the time they finally get around to taking off the limits on gameday. Often times the lines move by 5+ points between when the limits are in place and when they come down so by the time I am ready to fill in the gap to make it a full unit play, there is no longer any value in the play, so it is frustrating to say the least.

Over the first few weeks when I was bored, I played around just for fun doing 57.50 to win 50.00 here and there, but I found that the ROI wasn't there as the work I was doing wasn't worth the small fraction of a unit I was laying so that is why I stopped bothering to be honest. I do enjoy reading your info though, just wish 5 dimes would start with 500 limits at least, as I won't be playing these as long as they open at 50 to 100 limits each week.

Continued success this year, you are definitely a solid contributor on these plays as you have nailed pretty much all of em week in and week out!

 

[hoopsstar22]

Metsr - I really wish I would have looked more into the Liberty game. It seems like it would have been so easy, if I would have only taken the time. But I guess that is a lesson learned.


CB- Thanks for words man.