WEEK 5

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT

Rutgers -2'/+1 W
Wazzu TT over 27' L
FSU +7/6 L
UCF TT over 38' L



smaller

Wazzu +7' L
Bama / Georgia 1H under 24 L
USF +5 L
WMU +5 L
ND/UL 1H UNDER 23 L

small

Tulsa +7' L
WF -2' L
Indy/Terps 1H UNDER 27 W
SDSU/CMU 1H UNDER 27 L
Fresno +0.5 1H L
Baylor -3 L
N Caro ML L
UAB +4' L


leans/waiting
updated Sat am


UMass
UTSA
ODU
FSU / SMU UNDER
Iowa St
Ducks
AUBURN wtf
FIU







THURSDAY 9/26

101 DALLAS -4
8:15 p.m.
102 NY GIANTS

103 ARMY -10?
7:30 p.m.
104 TEMPLE


FRIDAY 9/27

105 VIRGINIA TECH
7:30 p.m.
106 MIAMI, FL -14

107 WASHINGTON
8:00 p.m.
108 RUTGERS -2
R- @VT/@Neb

POST
6:00 p.m.
ASSUMPTION -28



SATURDAY 9/28


109 EASTERN MICHIGAN -12
12:00 p.m.
110 KENT ST

111 LIBERTY
12:00 p.m.
112 APP ST -1' ???
ASU - 6-10 OL

113 UTSA
12:00 p.m.
114 EAST CAROLINA -3?

115 STANFORD
12:00 p.m.
116 CLEMSON -21

117 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
12:00 p.m.
118 GEORGIA ST P

119 NIU
12:00 p.m.
120 NC STATE -9'

121 SAN DIEGO ST
12:00 p.m.
122 CENTRAL MICHIGAN P

123 LOUISIANA
12:00 p.m.
124 WAKE FOREST -2'

125 BALL ST
12:00 p.m.
126 JAMES MADISON -17

127 NORTH CAROLINA -3
12:00 p.m.
128 DUKE

129 AKRON
12:00 p.m.
130 OHIO -14

131 MARYLAND
12:00 p.m.
132 INDIANA -6

133 BUFFALO
12:00 p.m.
134 CONNECTICUT -3

135 MASSACHUSETTS
12:00 p.m.
136 MIAMI, OH -18

137 COLORADO
12:00 p.m.
138 UCF -12'

139 WESTERN MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
140 MARSHALL -4??
WM - off bye/Ball St
M- off Ohio St/App St

141 OLD DOMINION
12:00 p.m.
142 BOWLING GREEN -8'

143 WKU
12:00 p.m.
144 BOSTON COLLEGE -11

145 NEBRASKA -12
12:00 p.m.
0146 PURDUE
N- +1 rest - Ill/Rut
P - @ Oreg St/@ Wisky

147 FLORIDA ST
12:00 p.m.
148 SMU -2
FSU- Cal/CLEMSON
SMU- TCU/@ Lou

149 KENTUCKY
12:00 p.m.
150 OLE MISS -20'

151 OKLAHOMA ST
12:00 p.m.
152 KANSAS ST -5
OSU- UTAH/WV
KSU- @ BYU/BYE

153 CINCINNATI
12:00 p.m.
154 TEXAS TECH -5

155 TCU
12:00 p.m.
156 KANSAS -1'

157 USF
12:00 p.m.
158 TULANE -5
USF- Miami/BYE

159 ARIZONA
2:00 p.m.
160 UTAH -8'
U- @ OSU/BYE

161 WASHINGTON ST
2:00 p.m.
162 BOISE ST -5
W- SJSU/BYE

163 TEXAS ST -6
3:00 p.m. Houston, TX
164 SAM HOUSTON
T- BYE/Troy
SH- NMSU/Utep

165 NAVY
3:30 p.m.
166 UAB -1'
N- Mem/@AF
U- BYE/Tulane

167 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
3:30 p.m.
168 MEMPHIS -29

169 MISSISSIPPI ST
3:30 p.m.
170 TEXAS -33
M- Fla/BYE
T- ULM/BYE

171 BYU
3:30 p.m.
172 BAYLOR -5

173 SOUTH ALABAMA
3:30 p.m.
174 LSU -23???
SA- TWO HUGE W's
LSU- UCLA/BYE

175 IOWA ST -9'
3:30 p.m.
176 HOUSTON
ISU- Ark St/Bay
H- @Cinn/@Tcu

177 CHARLOTTE
3:30 p.m.
178 RICE -10
C- @Indy beatdown/ EC
R- Army/bye

179 OKLAHOMA -2
3:30 p.m.
180 AUBURN
OU- Tenn/BYE
A- Ark / GEORGIA

181 ULM
3:30 p.m.
182 TROY -9'

183 TULSA
3:30 p.m.
184 NORTH TEXAS -5

185 FRESNO ST
3:30 p.m.
186 UNLV -6

187 OREGON -22
3:30 p.m.
188 UCLA
O- bye/Sparty
U- @LSU/ @ Penn St ha

189 ARKANSAS
3:30 p.m. JERRYWORLD
190 TEXAS A&M -6
A- @ Aub/ TENN
T- BGreen/Mizz

191 LOUISVILLE
3:30 p.m.
192 NOTRE DAME -8
L- GTech/SMU
ND- Mia,O / BYE

193 ILLINOIS
3:30 p.m.
194 PENN ST -19

195 MINNESOTA
3:30 p.m.
196 MICHIGAN -10

197 WISCONSIN
3:30 p.m.
198 USC -16'
W- BYE/@ Purdue
USC- @ Mich/ @ Minny

199 LOUISIANA TECH
6:00 p.m.
200 FIU -1'

201 GEORGIA
7:30 p.m.
202 ALABAMA -2
G- BYE/Aub
A- BYE/@ Vandy

203 NEW MEXICO -2
8:00 p.m.
204 NEW MEXICO ST

205 OHIO ST -26
8:00 p.m.
206 MICHIGAN ST

207 AIR FORCE
8:00 p.m.
208 WYOMING -1'
 
Last edited:
Greyhound Racer said:
Illy +19 would be great, I capped it at 11
Click to expand...

Too depressed after Baylor/E Caro losses to adjust these lines last nite sorry boys ........

18'/19 was pretty solid - Illini looked MUCH better than I thought, especially offensively - Huskers are flawed offensively but D is pretty tough (SP+ #3).
>> so 'correct' number now is closer to 16' - tough to say how movement will go, I would expect an overreaction at first (14/15?) - maybe late Penn State money. Both are tough in this spot.
 
Confused line of the week? Wake -2.5/3 at home to ULL- that UL D is so awful. Wake off a bye and needing to get back on track? Hard for me to layoff at this price
 
satnightfever05 said:
Confused line of the week? Wake -2.5/3 at home to ULL- that UL D is so awful. Wake off a bye and needing to get back on track? Hard for me to layoff at this price
Click to expand...
Perfect spot for Louisiana this week and, while Tulane caught a few breaks, La couldn’t stop them in the second half.

I totally agree this jumped out to me but I have been as cold in CFB as you can be.
 
satnightfever05 said:
Confused line of the week? Wake -2.5/3 at home to ULL- that UL D is so awful. Wake off a bye and needing to get back on track? Hard for me to layoff at this price
Click to expand...

Just looking at that one .....will do small at least

Number is about right / these teams are about the same - SP+ has this ULL -4
>> WF with rest and coaching edge - ULL off tough, physical and emotional OT loss (outgained Tulane)

WF is great off a bye (8-1 ats) - last 4 at home 4-0, covering by 12 pts/game - ULL tough as short dog (6-1 su/ats getting 6 or less....
 
smaller at BM -115

FSU +6

FSU probably can't WAIT to get on the road - better there anyway. With Clemson on deck - can't afford to let this get away. Ponies took advantage of one of the worst performances ever seen by TCU (check box score). FSU with edge on D, and huge ST edge.
 
I like the Hoosiers as much as the next guy, but are they really in a position to be laying 7 to any decent conference opponent?
 
satnightfever05 said:
I like the Hoosiers as much as the next guy, but are they really in a position to be laying 7 to any decent conference opponent?
Click to expand...

The ONLY way you bet Indy here (at 7) is if - you're just betting them every week until you lose .....

These teams look similar to me - Indy maybe 1-2 pts better? Hard to tell really - they look great, but what have they (really) done?

I hate the Terps/Locksley- (unless home / non-conf games) - but they're really a solid team. #1 in net TO margin - yards/pt margin #7 - SP+ #65 O - #28 D - #39 ST -
>> but a terrible road dog - weak on the B10 road - OL is vulnerable (#109 TFL)

Note Indy has a massive HAVOC rating edge (not SOS adjusted) - Terp O #68 vs Indy # 10 D / Indy #5 O vs Terp #110 D

$ a LIVE/2H play on Indy might be the way to go if any - maybe consider Terps 1H as a starting point? - Indy's O and D gets better as the game progresses - 4Q their D gives up NOTHING (16 rushing yds and only like 3 points) - O comes out strong after halftime. Terps D tightens up a bit / O gets weaker.......
 
At this point we have enough info (most teams) ......
>> time to dive in to box scores / stats / data > STOP listening to other's opinions - FORM YOUR OWN

Start with Bill C's stuff for a quick snapshot for O/D/ST - ESPN+ or google docs

www.espn.com

SP+ rankings for all 134 FBS teams after Week 4: A new No. 1

It is extremely close at the top of this week's rankings, but the Texas Longhorns have pulled into the top spot.
www.espn.com www.espn.com

* click on link in profile for google docs - he has ratings for EVERY team in CFB (764 or so)
x.com

BCF Toys - 2024 FEI Ratings

www.bcftoys.com www.bcftoys.com
www.sharpcollegefootball.com

Sharp College Football | Beta_Rank | Advanced CFB Stats| College Football Covera

The home of Beta_Rank the most advanced CFB stats model and other advanced CFB stats, podcasts, and college football coverage
www.sharpcollegefootball.com www.sharpcollegefootball.com

CollegeFootballData.com

collegefootballdata.com collegefootballdata.com

College Football Team Stats | TeamRankings.com

Free College Football team stats and team stats leaders in simple, easy to read tables.
www.teamrankings.com www.teamrankings.com

Head to head? - before/after BYE? - vs conference play? - how does play vary month to month?

NCAAF Database: College Football Betting Data | Odds Shark

Use our NCAAF database to create your own betting reports. This free tool allows you to build your own reports with actionable betting stats and trends.
www.oddsshark.com www.oddsshark.com
 
Gonna post RUTGERS at 2'
>> but what I'll do is follow the movement - expecting (later in the week) hits on Washington - juice is a bit much now at 2' (I'll lock in a small play now - more later).

SP+ has Washington favored by 2' or so - Action Network (Collin Wilson) has it a P. Often the lines will move towards Bill Connelly's numbers - I expect to be able to get a juiced 2 at worst late in the week.......tall order here for the Huskies traveling on a short week, with Michigan on deck. UNDER should work as well....

$$ NOTE Washington might be overvalued here due to 2023 data hangover - SP+ / Vegas has to use a lot of 2023 data as a base - should be straightened out by now, but takes awhile. Their D might be pretty tough.
 
Last edited:
I like Wazzu this week - instead of adding to my play at 7' - gonna play their TT (at MB)

Number is way too high IMO - Boise caught a bad (at the time) Duck team - Wazzu survived a scrappy as hell SJSU, off one of the program's biggest wins ever

Both D's are bad, but Boise is worse. Boise D is one of nation's worst in RZ, yards/pt, and pts/play. Wazzu plays FAST (#15), and it's rush O is actually more explosive than Boise (#2 vs #6). Wazzu has a TO margin edge too (#24/+4 vs #56/+1).

WAZZU TT over 27' (-109)


This way if that rat bastard Jeanty runs for like 350 ha, and Boise scores 50 - Wazzu will score 40-45......
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Hard to judge Indiana since you can't compare them to previous years. New coach and very experienced QB....Every unit looks much improved....gimme Cignetti at home vs Locksley any day.....
Click to expand...

Here's a good way to judge .....?

If you consider Indy to be a strong (they'regonnakillem) type play - this line is at least 3 pts off, and maybe should be 10.

Without regard to how the game would be bet - and keeping Maryland where they are - you are telling us that Indy - having played the #190 SOS (Sagarin) so far - is POOF! already as good as:

OU - Louisville - Utah - Mizzou - LSU - Michigan - A&M ..... and just 2-3 points short of Clemson and USC..

Would you bet Indy at P against those teams on a neutral field? If so your bet makes sense. If not just make a small hunch type play or pass. Or play every week until they lose - who TF knows they might be THAT team that goes 10-2/11-1 ats.
 
bookieassassin said:
Gonna post RUTGERS at 2'
>> but what I'll do is follow the movement - expecting (later in the week) hits on Washington - juice is a bit much now at 2' (I'll lock in a small play now - more later).

SP+ has Washington favored by 2' or so - Action Network (Collin Wilson) has it a P. Often the lines will move towards Bill Connelly's numbers - I expect to be able to get a juiced 2 at worst late in the week.......tall order here for the Huskies traveling on a short week, with Michigan on deck. UNDER should work as well....

$$ NOTE Washington might be overvalued here due to 2023 data hangover - SP+ / Vegas has to use a lot of 2023 data as a base - should be straightened out by now, but takes awhile. Their D might be pretty tough.
Click to expand...
Great point, a bit of a lookahead here for those remaining from January Nattie game.
 
very small to spite the Indy cheerleaders ha ..... think the Terps can hang for awhile - Indy plays slow (#109) / Terps #67 - Terp D matches up well vs Indy O (mostly)

Terps/Indy 1H under 27

* will look to play Indy 2H/live
 
SDSU/CM 1H under 27

Aztecs a great 1H team - only allowed 3 1H TD's (all rushing) - D breaks down late (O can't move ball and plays really fast)
>> problem? their O has not scored a TD yet in 1H

I'll probably play them 1H ML too - look to play CM live/2H. Better games on the board but drawn to this weird one....

SDSU DEFINITELY not ready for prime time - those dogs are setting new standards for screwing up (lead world in penalties)- but keep in mind this is still MTW vs MAC - 247 lists SDSU with a #76 to #117 talent edge.
 
Last edited:
bookieassassin said:
SDSU/CM 1H under 27

Aztecs a great 1H team - only allowed 3 1H TD's (all rushing) - D breaks down late (O can't move ball and plays really fast)
>> problem? their O has not scored a TD yet in 1H

I'll probably play them 1H ML too - look to play CM live/2H. Better games on the board but drawn to this weird one....
Click to expand...
This would be even better at noon! 330 works though too.
 
FRESNO 1H +0.5

at BM

UNLV will likely be fine (losing QB) as backup can play - but tough to see them starting fast here (off bye) - Fresno playing great and a fast starter. UNDER maybe better?
 
BA

Any thoughts on the Ohio/Akron total? 46 isn't a big number....but I dont see either team getting wild here (especially Akron)....27-10 seems about right imo
 
Thoughts on South Alabamas offense rolling into Tiger stadium against that porous LSU defense?
Would think they could go blow for blow. 22 seems sky high to me. Thoughts?
 
Jhoss003 said:
Thoughts on South Alabamas offense rolling into Tiger stadium against that porous LSU defense?
Would think they could go blow for blow. 22 seems sky high to me. Thoughts?
Click to expand...

I wouldn't do it - for me this one is LSU or nothing......

But I'm probably the wrong guy to ask - I've overrated LSU from week 1 - here off another weak game vs UCLA - BYE next - then Ole Miss > Ark > A&M. SA in a App St/Ark St sammich. Does S Bama really wanna go all out here, and risk injury to key guys? Why would you?
>> speaking of D, check out SA vs Ohio and NTX - both rolled - note Ohio got shut down my Morgan State

Here I would wait to play SA live / 2H - I can see LSU getting up early / Jaguars with great backdoor potential.......
 
Rusty Trombone said:
BA

Any thoughts on the Ohio/Akron total? 46 isn't a big number....but I dont see either team getting wild here (especially Akron)....27-10 seems about right imo
Click to expand...

I would definitely lean that way .......

Not enough info for me to get involved don't think.......

Ohio OVER team at home / UNDER on road - Akron over on road mostly / under at home (4-0 over so far). Ohio should get QB back here. Both do play fairly slow (28 sec/play). Akron D is probably underrated (not bad in MAC play LY) - and has gotten better each year under 3Y DC
 
added

UCF TT over 38'
USF +5
WMU +5
Baylor -3


Missed early number on UCF - hoping for <'10 - shot up too fast. Deion and his traveling circus should get pounded like a blow up doll here - they do have extreme back door potential, so I don't wanna lay 14+

USF- talented team - should stay close or win outright - great on AAC road - juiced at BM

WMU - best players have been hurt so underachieved so far - here off bye vs one of the WORST home teams in America (Ohio State / App St sammich) - juiced at heritage

Baylor - backs to the wall - D matches up well here - off loss with Iowa State next - time for some regression for BYU / off massive upset W- posting now - waiting for 2' - BM best option probably
 
Do you have experience with blown up dolls my friend? Do not count out the Buffalos, as they have the Prime magic! :) The Colorado Buffalos are going to win this game! :)
 
Last edited:
PRIMETIMEE21 said:
Do you have experience with blown up dolls my friend? Do not count out the Buffalos, as they have the Prime magic! :) The Colorado Buffalos are going to win this game! :)
Click to expand...
The last time we saw fear like the Buff D will experience is when the Russians rolled into Berlin in 1945 ........

Ha - the UCF pass D and lack of pressure will give Colorado a punchers chance, but Knights should control the line of scrimmage and wear Col down late. Not a great spot for Buffs to win outright.
 
bookieassassin said:
added

UCF TT over 38'
USF +5
WMU +5
Baylor -3


Missed early number on UCF - hoping for <'10 - shot up too fast. Deion and his traveling circus should get pounded like a blow up doll here - they do have extreme back door potential, so I don't wanna lay 14+

USF- talented team - should stay close or win outright - great on AAC road - juiced at BM

WMU - best players have been hurt so underachieved so far - here off bye vs one of the WORST home teams in America (Ohio State / App St sammich) - juiced at heritage

Baylor - backs to the wall - D matches up well here - off loss with Iowa State next - time for some regression for BYU / off massive upset W- posting now - waiting for 2' - BM best option probably
Click to expand...
With ya on Baylor

Also couldn’t pass up 6 with Hogs against A&M
 
Best of luck today partner… let’s get that Bama 1H Under. With you on FSU and you talked me into some Waszzu. Nice card, bring it home…Bookers Bourbon on the house.

Any lean in the TCU/Kansas matchup? I love picking on the Jayhawks…
 
Last edited:
Wolfeman said:
Best of luck today partner… let’s get that Bama 1H Under. With you on FSU and you talked me into some Waszzu. Nice card, bring it home…Bookers Bourbon on the house.

Any lean in the TCU/Kansas matchup? I love picking on the Jayhawks…
Click to expand...

STAY AWAY from that game man ha - need to do a deep dive on Kansas (can't FINISH drives/vice versa it appears)...... how does TCU get off the mat after SMU game?




added (these late adds have been fade material last few BTW)

NCaro ML
UAB +4'
Louisville/ND 1H UNDER 23


leans

UMass
UTSA
ODU
FSU / SMU UNDER
Iowa St
Ducks
AUBURN wtf
FIU
 
Meant to tell you nice work on Rutgers last night! I caught. Little in game….that was a fun one.

I think you gotta give Va Tech that Tuddy as the call on the field . Can’t overturn that. Oh well…..Va tech coach is a goober. lol
 
Wolfeman said:
Meant to tell you nice work on Rutgers last night! I caught. Little in game….that was a fun one.

I think you gotta give Va Tech that Tuddy as the call on the field . Can’t overturn that. Oh well…..Va tech coach is a goober. lol
Click to expand...


lucky ha .....surprised Huskies moved the ball like that

If in Blacksburg ? - call stands right?

That entire broadcast - constant Miami propaganda, even when they were being outplayed? weird
 
It was sickening the way the officials blew that game., and I came away despising Miami because of what you called the "propaganda" of the broadcast team.


"
 
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