WEEK 5

[mrpickem]

MONDAY
4/3.23 SEAHAWKS -124
3/2.86 GIANTS u47 -105

SEASON [48-43 +16.4u]
WEEK 4 [12-10 +5.44u]
LAST [2-0 +6.09u]

THURSDAY

• 6.18/6 COMMANDERS -6 -103
• 3/1.46 1H-COMMANDERS -205
• 4/3.70 COMMANDERS u44½ -108

randoms....

• WAS 13-8-1 62% ATS L4 YEARS FOLLOWING AN ATS WIN
• Prime time home chalk >=5 has covered 56.5% (39-30-3) last 7 years
• Prime time home chalk >=5 24-5 82.8% since DEC 2019
• Prime time last 7 years
• LAST 7 REGULAR SEASON GAMES

 

[mrpickem]

My model ratings after 4 weeks

 

[mrpickem]

​

WEEK 5​

THURSDAY
6.18/6 COMMANDERS -6 -103
3/1.46 1H-COMMANDERS -205
4/3.70 COMMANDERS u44½ -108

SEASON [48-46 +3.4u]
WEEK 5 [0-3 -13u]
LAST [0-3 -13u]

SUNDAY

• 3/2.91 JAGUARS +4½ -103
• 4/3.92 JAGUARS o48½ -102

​

randoms....

• JAX 3-1 SU & ATS IN ENGLAND AND THEY'VE BEEN THERE OVER A WEEK
• JAX 8-3 ATS IN LAST 11
• ROAD DOGS <6 POINTS THRU WEEK 8 OVER LAST 7 YEARS: 200-122-8 62.1% ATS
  

​

The 40M man, no worse contract I can remember...the gints really got btfo​

 

[mrpickem]

1pm action

• 5/4.76 FALCONS -2½ -105
• 6/5.71 FALCONS u42 -105
• 4/3.77 LIONS -8½ -106
• 4/3.81 LIONS u44 -105
• 5/4.72 TITANS -2½ -106
• 6/5.71 COLTS u43½ -105
• 4/3.81 DOLPHINS -12½ -105
• 4/3.70 DOLPHINS u48 -108
• 4/3.81 SAINTS +1½ -105
• 4/3.77 PATRIOTS u39 -106
• 5/4.72 STEELERS u39 -106

 

[mrpickem]

rest of Sunday action

• 4/3.64 BENGALS -3 -110
• 5/4.81 CARDINALS u45 -104
• 5/4.76 EAGLES -3½ -105
• 4/3.85 EAGLES o50½ -104
• 4/3.81 JETS +2½ -105
• 5/4.76 BRONCOS u42½ -105
• 5/5.15 CHIEFS -3½ +103
• 4/3.74 CHIEFS o52 -107
• 4/3.51 COWBOYS +3½ -114
• 4/3.81 49ERS u45 -105

​

 

[mrpickem]

SUNDAY
3/2.91 JAGUARS +4½ -103
4/3.92 JAGUARS o48½ -102
5/4.76 FALCONS -2½ -105
6/5.71 FALCONS u42 -105
4/3.77 LIONS -8½ -106
4/3.81 LIONS u44 -105
5/4.72 TITANS -2½ -106
6/5.71 COLTS u43½ -105
4/3.81 DOLPHINS -12½ -105
4/3.70 DOLPHINS u48 -108
4/3.81 SAINTS +1½ -105
4/3.77 PATRIOTS u39 -106
5/4.72 STEELERS u39 -106
4/3.64 BENGALS -3 -110
5/4.81 CARDINALS u45 -104
5/4.76 EAGLES -3½ -105
4/3.85 EAGLES o50½ -104
4/3.81 JETS +2½ -105
5/4.76 BRONCOS u42½ -105
5/5.15 CHIEFS -3½ +103
4/3.74 CHIEFS o52 -107
4/3.51 COWBOYS +3½ -114
4/3.81 49ERS u45 -105

SEASON [61-56 +14.67u]
WEEK 5 [13-13 -1.73u]
LAST [13-10 +11.27u]

MONDAY

• 5/4.76 PACKERS +2 -105
• 5/4.72 RAIDERS u45½ -106

randoms....

• LV ONLY 11-19 36.7% ATS LAST 5 YEARS AS THE FAVORITE
• LV 21-39 35% ATS AS SHORT FAV <=3 IN LAST 60(GOES BACK 22 YEARS BUT 4-11 l15)
• GB 24-17 ATS 58.5% FOLLOWING SU LOSS LAST 7 YEARS (14-5 L4 YEARS)
• GB 7-2 ATS AFTER PUTTING UP <= 250 TOTAL YARDS LAST 7 YEARS(WON LAST 7)
• Prime time home chalk <=3 in first 8 weeks: 8-11-2 42.1% over L7 years
• Prime time lines <7 w/total >39 first 8 weeks: 63.1% under total (53-31-5) L7 years
• 
• 
• GB offense should be near full strength for matchup against a mediocre LV D allowing 25.3 ppg. Starting guard Elgton Jenkins' return from injury will be huge as his backup has proven pure trash as a pass blocker. The extra rest after Thursday home loss will help easing some mild injuries on o-line(Runyan & Tom). LaFleur is 4-0 SU & ATS preceding a bye. Garoppolo is also expected to clear concussion protocol and get the start for Raiders but his best target WR Adams may be out or at least less than 100%. End of the day, Jordan Love can get the job done if given time and a much healthier GB front should be the difference in a close low scoring affair. 23-17