Week 5

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
5-2 week 4 +3.65u

YTD 22-9-1 70.3% +13.86u


All played this morning. I realize Miami has moved but this is what I was able to get.

New England -10 -115
Cleveland +3 +100

Miami +6.5 -115
Pittsburgh -3 -115
Arizona +4.5 -112

Oakland +5
Seattle +7.5 -115
Washington +6.5

and yes... Kansas City -3 -116
 
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Appreciate the kind words.. Brief thoughts....

Miami +6.5- Lookahead line was 3.5.... What changed... Bengals are approximately 1 minute from being 1-3.. What would the line be then? Miami had an awful game and the Bengals are getting a lot of love for going in and beating a terrible defense. Would have buried it at 7 but I think Miami keeps it close and has a chance for the outright win.

Pitt -3 -115- Two teams going in the same direction. When it comes down to it, the injuries for Atlanta on the defensive side of the ball are too much to ignore. Might be a last team with the ball wins situation but I'll take Pitt despite their internal problems.

Arizona +4.5 Again, lookahead line was 3. Did SF play that well last week or did LAC get in a hole and pretty much control the game from that point forward. Anyone who backed LAC last week has it fresh in the mind that SF maybe can actually play with Beathard. Meanwhile lost in the shuffle is that Arizona played somewhat competent football in a tough battle with Seattle. I do like much better how they look with Rosen

Oakland +5- Going against the lookahead line of 6.5 here. I think Oakland is far away and I have a season win total under ticket on them but they have competed. Buttttt they have played well at points in every game and I see this as a Field Goal game.

Seattle +7.5- Just playing the number. At this number, Seattle would be a 14.5 point underdog at LA? I dont think so. Seattle is still a tough place to play regardless of their offensive woes.

Washington +6.5- Missed 7, not super concerned. By the metrics, Washington is the better overall team. And you're going to give me almost a TD? I'll take it.

KC -3- Jax got steamed a bit today but I have outlined my reasoning in the other thread.
 
I hate this team. But there are just so many injuries on the Colts side.

New England -10 -115
 
I believe Pats will commit to the run. Edelman hasn’t played for a couple years. Josh brand new. Gronk limited with ankle. I like under. D showed up last week against a pathetic Miami team. Still think they keep Colts from scoring much. 34-13 kinda game
 
Not a sexy but I’ve convinced myself it’s the play.

Cleveland +3 +100

I like it. Browns D laid an egg due to west coast. I think they rise up today. Second in opposing qbr and Ravens are pass-first. Plus Ogbah healthy for pass rush Kirksey too. Fade the public road fave!
 
5-2 week 4 +3.65u

YTD 22-9-1 70.3% +13.86u


All played this morning. I realize Miami has moved but this is what I was able to get.

New England -10 -115
Miami +6.5 -115
Pittsburgh -3 -115
Arizona +4.5 -112
Oakland +5
Seattle +7.5 -115
Washington +6.5

and yes... Kansas City -3 -116
Yes i really love the Chiefs. Wanna make it a top unit play and top unit play on there team total. But all this Jacksonville love make me hesitant
 
Yes i really love the Chiefs. Wanna make it a top unit play and top unit play on there team total. But all this Jacksonville love make me hesitant

Who cares who loves Jacksonville. Only your viewpoint counts, i‘m sure it wouldn‘t be the first time where you‘re right while most are wrong :)
 
Who cares who loves Jacksonville. Only your viewpoint counts, i‘m sure it wouldn‘t be the first time where you‘re right while most are wrong :)
Well I value a couple peoples opinions/plays on here. So when they are seeing something different than me it makes me a little hesitant. I'm gonna be on the Chiefs until the wheels fall off though lol. Especially them playing at home. All team totals and game over should cash as well
 
I like it. Browns D laid an egg due to west coast. I think they rise up today. Second in opposing qbr and Ravens are pass-first. Plus Ogbah healthy for pass rush Kirksey too. Fade the public road fave!

If Hyde gets a first down last week, this line would have been 1. I’ll take it.

Just took me a little while to convince myself
 
I'm on 6 of your 8 plays also Cap. And lean with you on the other 2. Hope its a big day!

Any “expert” will tell you this many games is a bad idea for money management (and I agree if done for 17 weeks) but I do like the card today and feel good about our chances!
 
With you on most of them. I’m on Cincy, though. They are 3-1 and were an underdog in every game. Pretty impressive. Vegas finally adjusted the line. A little worried about all the injuries but I think Burfict returning will help the defense a lot. All around one of the most talented teams in the NFL. Need Mixon to stay healthy, though.

I like Cleveland, Pittsburgh and KC quite a bit. Best of luck!!
 
I’m staying away from the browns game but the way I see it the ravens have the better defense better qb and choach also browns off or so I’m confused
 
I’m staying away from the browns game but the way I see it the ravens have the better defense better qb and choach also browns off or so I’m confused

Very briefly. I think Balt is overvalued and Cleve undervalued. Defenses are virtually equal per the metrics. And if this were at Baltimore, would you be comfortable taking them at -9? Because that’s what this line reflects. On a key number like 3 (wish 3.5) I like the Browns. 2.5? Maybe lay off. Good luck.
 
Any “expert” will tell you this many games is a bad idea for money management (and I agree if done for 17 weeks) but I do like the card today and feel good about our chances!

I feel ok having bigger cards early in the season. Beyond week 5 or 6, if you're still hitting that many, you're in trouble IMO.
 
I play too many games every Saturday & Sunday based on money management. I tried to change, couldn't do it, and learned over time it is better to play the games I like regardless of volume.
 
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