Week 5

[smh212]

Updated record before Sunday.

Min/Gb UNDER 47 (1.25)
My line: 45

After missing the boat early, I waited for a 47 and got it. The 41 points that Minny put last week was not a result of a sustainable offensive attack. Moreover, the guy that led that attack is out tonight, and their 3rd stringer is in. Yes, Ponder is likely the best 3rd string QB in the league, but before this week, how many snaps do you think he got with the 1's?

The other side of this is Mike Zimmer. Dude has a history of frustrating top tier QB's and has had his way with Rodgers in the past. The bottom line is the Pack are one dimensional on offense. I don't know what happened to Eddie Lacy, but is looking more like Trent Richardson than Adrian Peterson. Hold up.

:shake:

 

[wizardofodd]

I had the under also man. Trust me...pick 6 by peppers and the next turnover before the half for GB sealed the over IMO, 14 quick points. Tough break on that total, I'd play it under 10 out of 10 times!

GL!

 

[TreyDawg]

GL this weekend SMH. :cheers3:

 

[smh212]

Sunday

YTD:

• Sides: 9-5 +6.29
• Totals: 6-5 +0.62
• Team Totals: 1-1 -.44
• Player Props: 7-6 -0.27
• Teasers: 3-3 -2.20
• Second Half: 1-0 +1.25
• 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half total -1.10

Records are updated, and include the Minny UN loss. Wiz - you summed it up perfectly. I would also play it again if given the shot. Trey - Appreciate the look. GL to you as well.

Looking to add some write ups on my plays, and will likely have some adds depending on the prices. For now:

Den/ Az un 47.5 (1.25)
Ne/Cincy un 46 (1.5)
Giants -4 (1.25)
RAMS +7 (1)
RAMS +250 (.25)

Teaser:
3T Rice +3.5 (W), Mich St +3 (W), Ne/Cin UN 55 PENDING (4 units) - Considering a hedge/middle with NE total, but I really like the UNDER at 46, so will likely let it ride.

Leans/Probable Plays:
Det/Buf UNDER
Ravens
Cardinals
49ers
Jets
Jets/SD UNDER
No/Tb UNDER
Redskins spread and ML - Monday night

Nice numbers for some Wong teasers. See y'all in 6 hrs or so.

GL.

:shake:

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[smh212]

Sunday Cont...

Thanks BAR:

Sunday run-down:


Car/Chi
My Line: Car -2 45

Lean Chi here, but I don't trust Bears on road. Offensive lines issues, LT Bushrod now out. Chi D terrible, but so is Car O line, and Car down to 3rd string RB. Better on board.

Cle/Tenny
My line: PK 44

Slight lean towards Cleveland. Cle has a horrible D. Tenny on a horrific run, sporting -55.5 L3 against the closing number. However, played second hardest schedule over that time. Gives me an idea of the class they fit in. Can't trust either team. Passing.

Stl/Phi
My Line: Phil -5.5 47
My Play: RAMS +7 (1) and RAMS +250 (.25)

Philly has been suffering from a beat up line. However, now 2 weeks into, I expect to see improvement. That includes the running game, which is the engine behind the Eagles offense. Eagles avg 3.08 YPR last 3, 96 yards TOTAL on ground last 2 week. Expect improvement today. STL offense better under Austin, but he's still green. I think it get's worse for STL after today. However, the spot today makes sense from a value standpoint, as the Eagles are still considered "elite" by public. They check in at 12th overall in the NFL in my PR, and 19 th overall in the L3.

Atl/Nyg
MY Line: Nyg -6 47
My Play: Giants -4 (1.25)

Ny numbers have two teams going in opposite directions. That being said, I think the value on NY is gone. If not for ATL on the road with horrific offense line woes: The Falcons could have four new offensive line starters. They just lost right tackle Lamar Holmes and center Joe Hawley. Both are on injured reserve along with left tackle Sam Baker. And now reliable guard Justin Blalock, who has started 102 consecutive games, missed practice on Wednesday with a bad back. Rookie Jake Matthews has played well moving to left tackle and Holmes was brutal, but the Falcons' makeshift offensive line could consist of Cameron Bradfield, who was so bad Jacksonville cut him after Week 2, draft busts Peter Konz and Gabe Carimi along with Harland Gunn off the practice squad. I don't think ATL get's much done offensively here. Last week for a Giants bet for awhile for me. I like them by 10 to 14 points.

Tb/No
My line: No -10.5 45

Lean TB and under, but not playing. One note of interest: Teams that are away dogs of at least a TDafter winning as away dogs of no more thana TD last week are 44-19-1 ATS: Week 5 Candidates = Tampa.

Hou/Dal
My Line: Dal -6.5 46

I don't see any value in this one. Houston not as good as record would indicate. Dallas playing good ball, but always prone to lay an egg.

Running out of time.

Will be adding....GL

 

[smh212]

ADDING:

BALTIMORE +3 (1) and BALTIMORE +145 (.25)
My line: PK

Indy tops my Fraud Alert list. They have inflated numbers against poor competition. Let's see how they fare against a team that can actually play some football.

 

[~Utah]

Good stuff SMH

 

[smh212]

Thanks Alex.

Adding: JETS +6.5 (1.25)

 

[smh212]

Adding:

DET -4 (1.25)
SF -4 (1.25)

Made both of these teams -6.

 

[smh212]

Mediocre Sunday. I need to trust my numbers and come up with a system to eliminate plays.

For Tonight:
REDSKINS +7 (1.25)
my line: Sea -5

Seattle not the same on the road, and Skins wl be better than they showed recently. Last time we saw Skins they were getting blown out in front of a national audience.

 

[emkee]

Continued good luck this season, Smh.

Go Birds !