Week #5

[Yanks27Sox9]

New week...and for once, I had my PR#s updated on Tuesday night (versus Weds or Thurs)...so I've had more time to dig into other things. Anyhow, lots of variances...so should end up with a sizable card...just taking my time pulling the trigger, and studying. Anyhow, too many 4-6 Saturdays to date...so hoping to turn that around asap.


Thurs. 9/25
Oklahoma St TT over 42 (-110) for 3/4
UCLA/Arizona St under 65.5 (-110) for 3/4
Friday 9/26
Fresno St TT over 38.5 (-110) for 3/4
Saturday 9/27
Duke (+7) over Miami (-110) for 3/4
Auburn TT over 47 (-110) for 1
A&M TT over 40.5 (-110) for 1
Ole Miss TT over 40 (-110) for 1
MSU(-18) to Wisky(-24) to Auburn(-22) for 1.1 to win 1
Penn St(-3) to SDST(-11) for 1.1 to win 1
USC(-2) to Stanford(-1) for 1.1 to win 1
Cal TT over 40 (-110) for 3/4
WashSt/Utah over 60.5 (-110) for 3/4


More to come over the remainder of the week. Best of luck, boys.

:cheers3:

 

[The Capping Genius]

GL

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Thurs. 9/25
Oklahoma St TT over 42 (-110) for 3/4
Friday 9/26
Fresno St TT over 38.5 (-110) for 3/4
Saturday 9/27

a couple team totals to begin the week.


as for all the weekday games...

I made GeoSou only an 11.5 pt fav tomorrow. Don't really wanna touch this game...but if that 19.5 climbs a bit higher, i may have to nibble.

Okie Lite has put up 52, 59, & 66 in their L3 vs Tech. Even w/out Walsh, I still see them throwing up a big number here...so i played the team total above.
My PR#s made Okie Lite an 18.5 pt fav here...but no interest in touching that spread w/out Walsh...as Tech might score a bunch as well.

Not even thinking about touching the UCLA game. One, this series is ALWAYS close. Two, there are too many unknowns here. Before the injuries, my PR#s make the Bruins a 1 pt fav on the road. Kelly's out...but Hundley's obviously very dinged as well...and Mora's not going to risk losing him for what's on deck (utah/oregon).
Anyhow, I will of course be watching. So if the Bruins are indeed conservative with Hundley...and on the other side, if Bercovici still looks shaky (though he does have a live arm, fwiw)...an in-game under play may be the way to go. I need to see how things start though, and hopefully get a better feel for these unknowns.

I made MTST a 1.5 pt fav here, but would prefer to avoid this game. I see that RAS played MTST, but the line has risen. Don't wanna touch it...but if it keeps going in that direction, I may have to nibble here as well.

Lastly, the other team total. This one was a coin flip between the TT and the over, tbh, as Fresno has issues on defense as well...and will struggle to stop the run. After all, these two typically (4 out of L5) get into the 80s. That said, I settled on the Fresno team total...call it gut instinct.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

my updated PR#s, w/out the HFA adjustment, if interested...


[TABLE="width: 241"]
<colgroup><col><col></colgroup><tbody>[TR]
[TD]98.42[/TD]
[TD]Auburn[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.52[/TD]
[TD]Florida St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]97.03[/TD]
[TD]Texas A&M[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.92[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]96.32[/TD]
[TD]Alabama[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]95.91[/TD]
[TD]Baylor[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]94.67[/TD]
[TD]Oregon[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]93.12[/TD]
[TD]Georgia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]92.39[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]91.53[/TD]
[TD]UCLA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.93[/TD]
[TD]Notre Dame[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.76[/TD]
[TD]Stanford[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.56[/TD]
[TD]Michigan St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.35[/TD]
[TD]USC[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]89.13[/TD]
[TD]LSU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.98[/TD]
[TD]Mississippi St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.92[/TD]
[TD]South Carolina[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.88[/TD]
[TD]Wisconsin[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.68[/TD]
[TD]Clemson[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]88.61[/TD]
[TD]Ohio St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]87.29[/TD]
[TD]Oklahoma St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]86.53[/TD]
[TD]BYU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]86.01[/TD]
[TD]Arizona St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]85.17[/TD]
[TD]Nebraska[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.33[/TD]
[TD]TCU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.28[/TD]
[TD]Kansas St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.26[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]84.21[/TD]
[TD]Missouri[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]83.94[/TD]
[TD]Louisville[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]83.06[/TD]
[TD]Utah[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]83.04[/TD]
[TD]Duke[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.54[/TD]
[TD]Arizona[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.45[/TD]
[TD]East Carolina[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.33[/TD]
[TD]Washington[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]82.16[/TD]
[TD]Marshall[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.44[/TD]
[TD]Florida[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.34[/TD]
[TD]Penn St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]81.24[/TD]
[TD]Oregon St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.72[/TD]
[TD]West Virginia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.32[/TD]
[TD]Texas[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.16[/TD]
[TD]Maryland[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]79.14[/TD]
[TD]Boise St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.90[/TD]
[TD]Pittsburgh[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.51[/TD]
[TD]Cincinnati[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.39[/TD]
[TD]Virginia Tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.16[/TD]
[TD]Tennessee[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.14[/TD]
[TD]Georgia Tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]78.07[/TD]
[TD]Miami[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.47[/TD]
[TD]UCF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.14[/TD]
[TD]Michigan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]77.08[/TD]
[TD]North Carolina[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.50[/TD]
[TD]Syracuse[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.36[/TD]
[TD]Iowa[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]76.21[/TD]
[TD]Indiana[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.67[/TD]
[TD]Minnesota[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.57[/TD]
[TD]Northern Illinois[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.42[/TD]
[TD]Virginia[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]75.07[/TD]
[TD]Boston College[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.54[/TD]
[TD]Houston[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.38[/TD]
[TD]North Carolina St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.26[/TD]
[TD]Navy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]74.20[/TD]
[TD]Memphis[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.75[/TD]
[TD]Rutgers[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.69[/TD]
[TD]Texas Tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.65[/TD]
[TD]Washington St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]73.57[/TD]
[TD]Kentucky[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]72.99[/TD]
[TD]California[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]72.94[/TD]
[TD]Colorado St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]72.58[/TD]
[TD]UTSA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]71.81[/TD]
[TD]Nevada[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]71.45[/TD]
[TD]Temple[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]70.87[/TD]
[TD]Toledo[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]70.74[/TD]
[TD]Northwestern[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]70.37[/TD]
[TD]San Diego St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]70.35[/TD]
[TD]Iowa St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.74[/TD]
[TD]Utah St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.64[/TD]
[TD]North Texas[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.39[/TD]
[TD]Bowling Green[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]69.14[/TD]
[TD]Illinois[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]68.75[/TD]
[TD]Western Kentucky[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.97[/TD]
[TD]Fresno St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.88[/TD]
[TD]Colorado[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.75[/TD]
[TD]Arkansas St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]67.46[/TD]
[TD]Louisiana Tech[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.89[/TD]
[TD]Middle Tennessee[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.68[/TD]
[TD]Rice[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.42[/TD]
[TD]San Jose St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]66.12[/TD]
[TD]Georgia Southern[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]65.83[/TD]
[TD]Vanderbilt[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.72[/TD]
[TD]Kansas[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.60[/TD]
[TD]Purdue[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.57[/TD]
[TD]Ball St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.46[/TD]
[TD]UAB[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.38[/TD]
[TD]Hawaii[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.33[/TD]
[TD]ULL[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.32[/TD]
[TD]Wyoming[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]64.31[/TD]
[TD]ULM[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.87[/TD]
[TD]Tulane[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.83[/TD]
[TD]FAU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.59[/TD]
[TD]Central Michigan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.47[/TD]
[TD]Buffalo[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.47[/TD]
[TD]Akron[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]63.15[/TD]
[TD]Wake Forest[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.66[/TD]
[TD]Texas St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.63[/TD]
[TD]Ohio[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.50[/TD]
[TD]Western Michigan[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.43[/TD]
[TD]Army[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]62.28[/TD]
[TD]Old Dominion[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.90[/TD]
[TD]South Alabama[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.74[/TD]
[TD]UTEP[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]61.65[/TD]
[TD]Air Force[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.64[/TD]
[TD]USF[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.33[/TD]
[TD]Connecticut[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.26[/TD]
[TD]SMU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]60.01[/TD]
[TD]Tulsa[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]58.41[/TD]
[TD]UNLV[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.90[/TD]
[TD]New Mexico[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.75[/TD]
[TD]Southern Mississippi[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]57.41[/TD]
[TD]Appalachian St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]56.57[/TD]
[TD]Miami-Ohio[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55.97[/TD]
[TD]FIU[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]55.53[/TD]
[TD]Kent St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53.23[/TD]
[TD]New Mexico St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]53.17[/TD]
[TD]Troy[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]52.69[/TD]
[TD]Massachusetts[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]52.65[/TD]
[TD]Idaho[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]50.81[/TD]
[TD]Georgia St[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]47.76[/TD]
[TD]Eastern Michigan[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]

:tiphat:

 

[captbunch18]

Thanks Yanks!

 

[RetroVK]

wmich higher than utep? come on ... hehe

gl this week yanks

 

[bones]

sure like to read your thred

 

[NYGiants25]

BOL this week ... thanks for posting ... :shake:

 

[dilaudid8]

yanks my man bol

 

[Play2win]

on that Okie light tt with ya, BOL Yanks

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

not waiting for the game to start. addition...

UCLA/Arizona St under 65.5 (-110) for 3/4

total was 59.5 earlier in the week...with kelly out, and hundley questionable. looks like RAS or somebody pushed that total way up, so value was created. furthermore, now i hear that the zona st backup QB is also out for undisclosed reasons...so bye, bye to Bercovici's strong (if inaccurate) arm.

bottom line, if this game goes over it'll be due to turnovers and short fields. zona st will be one dimensional...ucla will be cautious with Hundley...but if Rick's kid plays instead, he sucks...despite the late TD in Tejas. the o-line's got major issues for ucla...and missing goforth for the remainder won't hurt here w/ a 3rd string QB who's unprepared.

lots of running the rock by both sides. still expect a very tight game...but now also kinda expecting a shitfest. don't see either offense doing all that much...see the weaknesses of both defenses not being such an issue due to the situation/injuries/etc...and short of multiple scores of turnovers, &/or returned kicks/punts, i cannot see this fucker approaching 60 points.

obviously, i may be way off base...but they'll have to prove it to me first, especially with the value created in this total of late.

 

[RetroVK]

It's like stealing. GL Yanks .. couldn't agree more.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

had to step away and watch Jeter. fuck the teasing i'll probably get...but dammit, my eyes are all fucking watery. would give damn near anything to be at the Stadium tonight.

 

[Play2win]

you know who my team is, that being said, #2 is my fav player of all time, possibly in any sport

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

you know who my team is, that being said, #2 is my fav player of all time, possibly in any sport

:shake:

 

[xyzky]

It's like stealing. GL Yanks .. couldn't agree more.

:shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Thanks Yanks!

thanks, capt :shake:

wmich higher than utep? come on ... hehe

gl this week yanks

lol...they all gotta fall in there somewhere, right? thx, vk...you too. :cheers3:

sure like to read your thred

grazie, bones. :shake:

BOL this week ... thanks for posting ... :shake:

:cheers3:

yanks my man bol

you too, D8, my brotha. :shake:

on that Okie light tt with ya, BOL Yanks

let's get this... :shake:

It's like stealing. GL Yanks .. couldn't agree more.

hope so, vk...thanks again. hoping we don't see any funny business tonight though.

 

[J Galt]

:shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

damn...full disclosure, i was ready to get off this bruin/sun devil under with a 2nd half over play. then, low and behold, a pick six...totally screwing up any chance of doing that.
oh well, gonna ride out this 2nd half...and watch the under lose. yep, i was way off base with these defenses. a team like oregon would've thrown up 42 by now...

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

had to step away and watch Jeter. fuck the teasing i'll probably get...but dammit, my eyes are all fucking watery. would give damn near anything to be at the Stadium tonight.

tonight was a perfect example of why sports are so popular. every so often something truly magical (beautiful) happens.
i've got no problem admitting that tears were rolling down my face at the end. was great to see so many legends paying their respects as well following the game.

anyhow, it was an appropriate end to an era. my final tweet of the night summed up my personal thoughts perfectly, so i'll leave it at that.

:tiphat:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

:shake:

:shake:

:shake: :shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

like i said...fucked up that ucla under addition, as it turned into a different kinda shitfest. anyhow, juiced out with the 2 thurs nite team totals as a result.
had it not been for that pick six right before the half...assuming asu kicks a FG...at least i would've been able to escape with a 2H play on the over. still should've done that, in hindsight...but at the time, that late score took a 2H play outta the equation by inflating the number (to 34). oh well, shit happens. silver lining is that the bruins got the W.

more additions...

Duke (+7) over Miami (-110) for 3/4
Auburn TT over 47 (-110) for 1
A&M TT over 40.5 (-110) for 1
Ole Miss TT over 40 (-110) for 1
MSU(-18) to Wisky(-24) to Auburn(-22) for 1.1 to win 1

jumped 3 of the team totals i've been eyeballing. teased 3 big favs that i liked this week at home, but the spreads were pretty damn tight. and had to take Duke before the 7 was lost, as it's already gone to 6.5 at BM. (kicking myself for not grabbing the 7.5 last night.) the U may have the revenge angle...but at least by my PR#s, they aren't the better team in this game. anyhow, definitely more to come before Saturday.

:tiphat:

 

[casual]

GL today / :shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

GL today / :shake:

thanks, bud...appreciate it. :cheers3:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

well, had the family out at Chili's for dinner...at my baby girl's request...when low & behold, Fresno St made me cuss out loud in the restaurant 2/3's of the way thru the 4th Q, lol. how they didn't get into the mid 40s is beyond me...and the degenerate in me couldn't keep it all inside tonight, i guess.

anyhow, moving on...more additions...two more teasers, and two more team totals. (i need to spread my plays out to other offshores, so these new TTs will be finalized in the morning...whenever dimes or bm puts the #s out, like betus/etc already have. too many eggs in the same small basket right now, tbh...so will update the details later.)

Penn St(-3) to SDST(-11) for 1.1 to win 1
USC(-2) to Stanford(-1) for 1.1 to win 1
Cal TT over 41?
Utah TT over 39?

biggest revenge angle of the week is SDST...and UNLV might be as dinged up a team as there is right now...so might play them SU as well.
pac-12 lines are freakin' tight, so just finding plays in conference where i can.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

some (other) line value, according to my PR#s...

Minnesota +13 (my #s say +6)
Maryland +4 (my #s make it a pk)
Penn St -10 (my #s say -15.5)
Vandy +17 (my #s say +10.5) -- wouldn't touch with a 10 foot pole though
Texas St +4 (my #s say they should be a 1 pt fav)
Blowing Green -5 (my #s make them a 14 pt fav) -- not touching, new stadium/etc
Colorado +14 (my #s say +6) -- respectfully disagree
SMU +31.5 (my #s say +21) -- see my vandy comment, lol
A&M -8.5 (my #s say -17) -- think hogs keep it closer than that
Washington +8 (my #s say +3) -- respectfully disagree
FIU +17 (my #s say +10.5) -- see my vandy comment yet again

mainly just highlighting these variances to track. obviously interested to see how my #s perform in these spots. but can also see myself adding a few action plays manana...at least where i can stomach them, lol.

:shake:

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

ok, lets shit or get off the pot with these team totals. if some of the spots can make them available, you all can.

opcorn:

 

[~Utah]

GL yanks

 

[RetroVK]

damn...full disclosure, i was ready to get off this bruin/sun devil under with a 2nd half over play. then, low and behold, a pick six...totally screwing up any chance of doing that.

Ya that was tough for the under backer who wanted out. I was at 59.5 so it wasn't an option for me anyway.

gl today

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

Cal TT over 41?
Utah TT over 39?

the details on these two...

Cal TT over 40 (-110) for 3/4
WashSt/Utah over 60.5 (-110) for 3/4

change of plans. not sure what knocked the wazzou/ute total down so much today, but don't care. the result is that i went from a ute team total to the game going over. all the better, now that halliday can contribute to the cause.