Week 5 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
7-5-2 last week brings the yearly total to 28-22-3 on sides. As I think everybody knows I don't typically play totals and I'm usually so bad at it that I would never be so bold as to write it up. Same 1st halfs, team totals, etc. Still reeling a bit from the first couple legitimately bad beats of the year last week (Auburn, Miami(OH)), but hopefully I'll get a couple breaks in the coming weeks.

It's a fantastic card this week. I've had to narrow a lot down because I can justify sides on about 30 games. Regardless of the betting results, there should be some prime viewing opportunities. We should be able to learn a lot.

Virginia +7 WIN
TCU +3 PUSH
USC -7 LOSS
Bowling Green +8 LOSS
Minnesota -5 LOSS
Cincinnati +5.5 WIN
UCF +5.5 LOSS
UCLA +6.5 WIN
Toledo -20.5 WIN
Washington +9.5 LOSS
Indiana -8.5 LOSS
Ole Miss PK WIN
Arizona +5.5 LOSS
NC State -10 LOSS
Oregon +3.5 WIN


6-8-1



1. @Virginia +7 v Florida State (BOL) : Should we be completely sold on Florida State? Maybe. I am not an admirer of Mike Norvell, but the lack of admiration is really only justified every other year. They seem to be either dynamite or severely incompetent, with not much in between and very little deviation within a year. They're certainly off to a good start, having hammered Alabama and then completely obliterated back to back patsies to the tune of 700+ yards of offense on each. Now they go on the road for the first time to face Virginia, who has been surprisingly good this year, especially on offense. Chandler Morris has been great addition with an 8/1 ratio and 8,8 yards per attempt, but the best thing about this offense in my opinion has been their offensive line. They've given up almost no sacks and their running game has been very effective, regardless of who has carried the ball. Both JMari Taylor and Harrison Waylee are averaging better than 5 yards per carry after contact and Taylor has already forced 17 missed tackles. The Cavs have given up some yards on defense but they've been great on 3rd down. The game of theirs that I watched the most was their road game at NC State, and they really should have won that game despite playing a really good offense in the Wolfpack. FSU of course has looked fantastic, but this is their first road game with this roster, and I am still not sold on Castellanos despite his great start(and it's been great). There's too much of an established track record of mediocrity to assume he'll be THIS good for the foreseeable future, and I think this game might be a good candidate for a regression. UVa's offense can score, so there's a great chance this one comes down to the wire. I'm a little scared about that Tony Elliott staff, but I have to give them credit for how they've looked in their 3 FBS tests.

The offensive line was once again a strength for UVa here. Tony Elliott almost blew it by going away from what got them where they were in the game late. He got mega conservative and went away from the crossers and screens that FSU never did stop. Lucky for him, he prevailed in OT because he did all he could to give FSU as many chances to beat him as possible. That offense is legit though. Castellanos reminded us what he has been the past 3 years. He's better, but still not a championship level QB, although Robinson dropped a game tying TD on a perfectly thrown ball.
 
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2. TCU +3 (-115) @Arizona State (BOL) : I moved when I had a chance to grab 3 in this one. These are a couple of enenly matched teams, but I think I'm getting the more well rounded team in TCU. Offensively, TCU can hurt you in a number of ways. They'll be without leading rusher Kevorian Barnes again this week, but without him, they ran for 113 yards on 19 carries with their backups against SMU. Also, Josh Hoover continues to napalm the opposition, throwing for 5 TDs and 379 yards. Defensively, ASU is solid, but their last encounter with a power 4 passing attack worthy anything was with Mississippi State, and Blake Shapen had them flummoxed for large parts of that game and when the chips were down in the biggest moment. Offensively, Sam Leavitt has not proven to be the kind of QB that can carry the load with the passing game. That's too bad, because TCU can be had in the secondary a lot better than they can in the front 7. ASU is a heavy rush offense, but that's TCU's forte. In addition to that, TCU has been very good on 3rd down while the Devils rank 104th in converting 3rd down. The matchups favor the Frogs in this one, so I'll take the FG in a game that TCU can certainly win.

Even though ASU had to convert several 4th downs late to get to OT, including a couple on penalties, I'll take this push because TCU was not going to win this in OT. Josh Hoover was rolling until he wasn't, and it was severe. We'll have to keep an eye on him because his decline was so rapid in this one that I suspect he was hurt.
 
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3. USC -6.5 @Illinois (BOL) : This is admittedly a terrible spot for USC, and in most cases I would not lay points with the Trojans on the road going east in the Big Ten until they proved they can, but the "on paper" advantages are just too much to ignore here, especially when you consider the injury problems that Illinois has. The Illini were completely manhandled last week, and a lot of that had to do with the uncanny brilliance of Curt Cignetti and the Indiana staff. They came into that game with a massive motivational advantage as well as the advantage of putting absolutely zero on film for Illinois to potentially exploit while benefitting from Illinois being a bit exposed by tape they had to show in order to show up undefeated for that game. But then they overpowered Illinois physically. In many cases it was Illinois backups because so many starters were either out for that game(when we thought they were going to play) or got hurt during the game. Moving to this week, Illinois is trending to have a lot of guys back, but if there's one thing we've learned about Bielema and injury reports, the surprises are always bad. He likes to indicate guys are going to play, only to have them become unavailable right before the game(Laughery and Bowick last week). Apparently, the 5 guys in the secondary that were hurt last week are all going to play, other than their best guy, Xavier Scott, a potential first rounder and by far their best corner. However, Matthew Bailey is recovering from concussion protocol, so he'll be a game time decision, Kaleb Patterson was in a boot as late as Monday, so he'll be less than 100%, and if Jahiem Clark plays, it will be for the first time this year ona tender hamstring. Even at their best, I don't know that they, o any secondary can hang with this USC receiving corp. There's some talk that Jakobi Lane will miss this game, but there are a ton of guys that can step in at that position after Makai Lemon, and USC is a ton more than a WR corps on offense. JUCO transfer RB Waymond Jordan has been electric, averaging 8 yards a carry and breaking tackles left and right. Maiava is just ok in my opinion, but you can't argue with his numbers so far against a subpar schedule. As for USC defensively, I think Illinois will get a bit of class relief after that impossible environment last week, but D'Anton Lynn knows his shit and they are running roughshod on opposing offensive lines with their pass rush, which is bad news for this weak Illinois offensive line. Maybe they'll right the ship, bu tthey've been whipsawed to the point every opposing coach they've played dogs them in the post game press conference. They can't run it, so they'll have to rely on Altmyer to score, and although I like Altmyer, he can't do it from flat on his ass. Hard to trust USC here, but the numbers are in their favor, and Illinois is way too banged up to be able to stop that offense for very long.

Not sure what to say about this, and I'll have to rewatch it, but the Illinois offensive line was dominant in this one a week after being emasculated. As a result, USC could not stop the Illinois offense. If Altmyer is kept upright, he can hurt you, which he proved in this one. USC 's offense was as good as advertised, although if you take away the two fumbles by Illinois at the goal line, it wouldn't have been that close of a game. I did not see that OL performance coming. Not that I'm pissed about it!
 
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Br@ssknux said:
2. TCU +3 (-115) @Arizona State (BOL) : I moved when I had a chance to grab 3 in this one. These are a couple of enenly matched teams, but I think I'm getting the more well rounded team in TCU. Offensively, TCU can hurt you in a number of ways. They'll be without leading rusher Kevorian Barnes again this week, but without him, they ran for 113 yards on 19 carries with their backups against SMU. Also, Josh Hoover continues to napalm the opposition, throwing for 5 TDs and 379 yards. Defensively, ASU is solid, but their last encounter with a power 4 passing attack worthy anything was with Mississippi State, and Blake Shapen had them flummoxed for large parts of that game and when the chips were down in the biggest moment. Offensively, Sam Leavitt has not proven to be the kind of QB that can carry the load with the passing game. That's too bad, because TCU can be had in the secondary a lot better than they can in the front 7. ASU is a heavy rush offense, but that's TCU's forte. In addition to that, TCU has been very good on 3rd down while the Devils rank 104th in converting 3rd down. The matchups favor the Frogs in this one, so I'll take the FG in a game that TCU can certainly win.
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I jumped in the fray on this one after major palpitations lol...BOL Brass!
 
4. Bowling Green +8 @Ohio (BOL) : When it comes to the MAC, whenever you have two of the non Kent or Akron teams, it makes a lot of sense to just favor the dog. In this case, I think we have two pretty evenly matched teams here, so I'm certainly going to look at taking the points here. BG came into the year with a bunch of questions, but one thing you can't question is their identity. Eddie George wants to run the ball and grind you to death while making you go down the field methodically on defense and hopefully make a mistake in the red zone or on third down. That's a recipe for covering, and when the opponent is an 8 point favorite who can't really play defense, I like it even more. Ohio is probably favored because QB parker Navarro has looked really good, and Ohio has played a great schedule, but BG has played some good teams as well in Cincy and Louisville. I think BG is going to run it on Ohio enough to keep themselves thoroughly in this game. I just think 8 is too much here, even though the line was higher earlier in the week.

BG was moving the ball great for big portions of the game, but it wasn't their day and the early pick 6 was a harbinger for the kind of day they had. Weak play here.
 
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5. @Minnesota -5 v Rutgers (BR): Typically, I'm not much of a fan of laying points with Minnesota, and I usually prefer to back Schiano as a road dog, but this is a really bad spot for Rutgers. Tough loss to Iowa, and now after 4 home games, they hit the road for a 5th straight week of playing while Minnesota welcomes them in off a bye. Also, this Rutgers defense simply appears to be terrible. They gave up 38 points and 10 yards per pass attempt to Iowa for crying out loud. Minnesota needs this game badly after their loss to Cal 2 weeks ago, and despite only mediocre numbers, I really liked what I've seen from Drake Lindsey. Fleck did not bother bringing in a transfer QB after having done it last year with good success because he believes in this kid, and you could tell he has some moxie. He's certainly good enough to torch a defense on his home field that got abused by Mark Gronowski, that's for sure. Minnesota is very solid against the run, so don't be surprised if that makes Rutgers very one dimensional on offense, and although Kaliakmanis is much improved, he's going to be under pressure and he doesn't perform well in that scenario, especially on the road. Darius Taylor should be back, and Rutgers is just as bad stopping the run(112th) as they are against the pass(120th). The only thing I'm worried about here is the PJ Fleck "make the offense disappear" trick when he's up 4 late. I think they'll be up more than that though.

Minnesota got off to an atrocious start and Rutgers took advantage. The Gophers eventually got their footing, but Once they kicked a FG to go up 3, I knew I was cooked. Minnesota could not run it, which surprised me and doesn't bode well for their run game going forward.
 
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6. Cincinnati +5.5 @Kansas (BR): Cincinnati has not looked bad this year so far, having been somewhat unlucky in a tough spot in their opener against Nebraska in Kansas City. They ran the ball with no problem and were good defensively in that game as well, holding Raiola to a smattering of dump offs for almost the entire game. Offensively, although his arm isn't going to win any howitzer look alike contests, Brendan Sorsby is a reliable QB. He's averaging 10+ yards per attempt and sports a 8/1 ratio. Whatever Cincy is weak on, Kansas lacks the ability to exploit them in that area. The Jayhawks have looked good this year, but a closer examination of the box scores tells us they might not be as efficient as it seems. They played a high scoring, entertaining game with mizzou in week 2, but they were outgained 595-226 in that game. Last week they had a rocking chair winner at home against West Virginia, but it was a hellacious spot for the 'eers and KU only outgained them 388-324 despite a 41-10 final. I show Cincinnati with the edge in almost every category that I follow, so it makes sense to take the points here with the Bearcats.

Gutsy effort by Sorsby and the Bearcats here, including their pass catchers who made a number of very tough catches. 1200 yards of offense in this one. Cincy was the better team ultimately.
 
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7. UCF +5.5 @Kansas State: (BR) : I don't know if Scott Frost transforms magically from buffoon into a buttoned up wisdom machine as soon as he sets foot in Orlando, but this UCF team looks nothing like his Nebraska abominations that turned Memorial Stadium into a shrieking house of horrors during his tenure there. They're 3-0 and since they ditched ultimate stiff Cam Fanche rafter their opener for an actual competent QB in Trayce Jackson Davis's brother Tayven Jackson, they've looked the part. Kansas State, on the other hand, has not and it's mostly because their QB stinks. Avery Johnson can't throw the ball effectively, proven by his last two outings, a couple of losses to Army and Arizona in which he led them to offensive outputs of 246 and 193 yards respectively. He can't convert a 3rd down and looks like he'll be up against it when he tries to move it on this UCF defense who has toyed with all of their opposition so far. K State lost to Army at home and escaped by the hair of their chinny chin chin against North Dakota, winning by a FG. If they couldn't cover a small spread in those cases, why should we believe they can take it to a good team in UCF? I don't think they can.

Avery Johnson showed up and played well and the Knights could not muster a back door score. K State played by far their best game of the year. UCF moved the ball ok but couldn't convert on 3rd down. This wasn't a very smart play. Undefeated teams that go on the road for the first time as an underdog don't fare very well. I took a chance thinking K State was the perfect foil and might be on free fall, but it didn't work out.
 
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Nice write ups! I really think Cincy is underrated and could pull off the upset here. USC might start off slow with the early start but the Illini has a banged up secondary and the Trojans should be able to take advantage. Good luck this week!!
 
8. UCLA +6.5(-114) @Northwestern (BR): This is the buy low spot of buy low spots. UCLA was so bad against new Mexico a couple weeks ago that they absolutely had to fire DeShaun Foster immediately. They named Tim Skipper the interim, who was the HC at Fresno last year, so at least they have someone who has run a program and can get them organized. I checked to see if there was any exodus prior to the redshirt deadline, but I can't find any players having given up yet, which can only be construed as a pretty good sign. Skipper reported good practices during the off week, and they can't possibly be worse than how they looked 2 Fridays ago. Last year at about this time even with Foster around they caught a bit of a wind, going on a covering streak amid a brutal schedule. I can see that happening here, and this game represents without question their best chance at a win. When they went on the road at UNLV they pretty much dominated the Rebels in the second half, so maybe we'll see some evidence of that here. Northwestern is certainly a good candidate to fade as a 6 point favorite as they thrive in the dog role much more than as a favorite. Preston Stone has been atrocious, completing under 60% of his throws and with a 3/6 ratio. PFF has him for 10 turnover worthy plays, which is TOTALLY believable if you watched even a few minutes of their opener at Tulane. Their top RB Cam Porter is out for the year, and their run defense has been terrible (127th in ypc), which is about the only area of decent results for UCLA. This might be a game where Nico feels himself a little bit before going back to a total poseur next week at home against Penn State. UCLA is about the last team anyone would want to bet on given their performance this year, but I think this is a good spot for them to succeed.

Good job by UCLA to not fold...they had a shot at the outright. The Cats proved they are not a good favorite.
 
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9. @Toledo -20.5 v Akron (BOL): Toledo is a total Jekyl and Hyde team, and I don't know which one is the one that would beat the shit out of someone when they're mad(Hyde?) but I think that's what's going to happen here/ Last week, Toledo did what Toledo tends to do under Jason Candle, and that's lose a game they really had no business losing. They were up the entire game at Western Michigan but once they got up 13-0 they just stagnated and what do you know, the Broncos somehow get a couple late scores and walk off with the 14-13 victory. Akron is ranked 130th or worse in every offensive category on the board against the #129 Sagarin schedule. I don't see any way they're going to move the ball on Toledo. Tucker Gleeson is just as schizophrenic as the rest of his teammates when it comes to QB performance, and he's due for a good one. Throw in the fact that Toledo somehow lost at Akron last year, and now you have a motivated Rocket squad coming off a loss looking for revenge. In the 4 games prior to last year, Toledo averaged 597 yards per game against the Zips, and I expect that to happen again. I don't like laying points like this but I don't think under 3 TDs is enough.

If I was asked to rank plays in order of confidence, even though I hate laying points like this, this would have been #1. Probably not a good idea to assume performances like this continue for Toledo, but less than 3 TDs at home against Akron off a loss?
 
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10. @Washington +9.5 v Ohio State (BR) : Most of the books have this one at 8.5 but Bet Rivers threw this number up at me and I took it. I'd play 8.5 too. I'm not breaking news when I say that Washington is a completely different team at home than they are on the road, but since they extricated themselves from the Jimmy Lake horror show, they've won 22 straight at home starting with DeBoer's arrival in 2022. After turning Arizona from a zombie apocalypse to one of the hottest teams in the country in late 2023, Jedd Fisch has hit the ground running at Washington too, despite almost having to start from scratch. He knows what he's doing, especially on offense. Washington hasn't really played anyone, but it's obvious they have some real playmakers on offense, starting with Demond Williams at QB, who is averaging 11 yards per attempt and can run with the best of them. They also have all Big Ten types in WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman, who has been among the PFF darlings in every metric for 3 years running. Now they welcome Ohio State, where Julian Sayin will make his first road start in about the toughest environment you could conjure up. He's been fantastic the past two weeks against Ohio and Grambling, but in his one go around against a real defense, Texas held the Buckeyes to 203 yards in the Horseshoe, and if you take away one nice throw to Carnell Tate, he averaged about 4 yards per attempt for the game. Also, I thought Texas dominated the line of scrimmage in that game, and would have won rather easily if they had even poor QB play rather than the feckless performance Arch Manning gave them. Washington has been banged up in the secondary, which is a concern with Smith and Tate out there, but I don't think Ohio State is going to be able to run on Washington. We'll see if OSU uses Bo Jackson rather than CJ Donaldson and James Peoples, who have been underwhelming. Washington is ranked 3rd in yards per carry allowed so far this year, and OSU is only 75th in their FBS games. If OSU can't run, that will put a lot of pressure on Sayin, which I'm not sure he can handle. I think Washington would have to have a disastrous effort to not be in this one. I think they have a good shot at the outright. Their history on Lake Washington certainly suggests it.

I liked this play, but it never had a chance. I probably need to start believing in Matt Patricia, or just understand that Day has things buttoned up because that was a virtuoso defensive performance. This is a very good Washington offense run by a very competent coach with high level skill guys and they did nothing. NOTHING. 234 yards, 1/11 on third down, sacked 6 times. Ohio State went to one of the toughest(maybe THE toughest environment) and just shoved them in a locker.
 
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11. Indiana -8.5 @Iowa (BOL): I know this looks square but I don't care. I'm still shellshocked by what Indiana did to my alma mater. Granted, Illinois was down to grammar school kids out there in blue jeans in the secondary in the second half, but my goodness, that staff just totally worked the Illinois staff, which is a pretty good staff! They manhandled Illinois at both lines of scrimmage and knew just how to exploit them. Not to mention they have some pretty fucking good players too. Putting aside the current Heisman candidate at QB who has a 16/0 ratio(!!!) Those two receivers, Cooper and Surrat are criminally underrated, and they have 4 different backs that can hurt you and defensive guys at all 3 levels that are 1st team all Big Ten caliber(Kamara, Fisher, Ponds). This Iowa team is coming off a nice win at Rutgers, but they were somewhat lucky to win and got outplayed for large portions of the game. Defensively, they spent 2.5 quarters getting shredded by Athan Kaliakmanis until they finally put him out of his misery. They looked passable on offense against that terrible Rutgers defense but they will be facing something they cannot handle this week. Ultimately, I could have just said. "Indiana is a wrecking machine. I will be betting them until I lose." That's basically my handicap, but I figured I'd throw in some window dressing too. I get that its a bad spot, and Iowa as a home dog is getting more points than anyone would ever imagine they'd get, blah blah blah whatever. I'd probably lay 21. If Cignetti wants to cover this, he will. If he doesn't, he just didn't feel like it.

Cignetti looked like just another guy in this one. Shotgun, slow developing handoffs on 3rd and 4th and 1 TWICE like any other moron. Iowa showed they had no shot of consistently stopping Mendoza and those receivers and he didn't really use them. Having said that, Indiana played about a 4.5/10 game and they still won at Iowa when Iowa played an Iowa game. They're good, but Cignetti needs to get in "Illinois mode" every week if they're going to be great.
 
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12. @Ole Miss ML (-125) v LSU (BOL) : Since I could get this at -125 I decided to not mess with the -1.5. Doesn't it kind of seem like a loss is inevitable here for LSU? Maybe I feel that way because I still remember the Garret Nussmeier of the A&M second half last year and have seen flashes of that in his play this year. Their wins against Florida and Clemson are what gives them their lofty ranking, but in retrospect those were not very impressive wins. Clemson is Clemson and to only beat Florida by 10 when DJ Lagway looked as if he was on the take was not impressive in the least. They are going to have to depend on Nussmeier being his best this week because Ole Miss can stop the run and the only bright spot fr the LSU running game(Caden Durham) looks like he'll be out for this one. Offensively, Ole Miss is going with Trinidad Chambliss at QB who has looked fantastic when he's been out there, and although LSU has been good defensively, this will be another level of offensive football they'll be grappling with. The vibe around Brian Kelly is very precarious...it almost seems like the whole thing is close to collapsing, and this might be the week. If LSU sacks up and wins here, it'll be an impressive feat to say the least.

I'm worried about LSU, well, not really worried, but wondering if they just aren't that good and might be about to fall off a cliff. This really wasn't as close as the final score. They got outgained 480-254 and benefitted from a couple very timely turnovers, one right at the goal line. Nussmeier isn't all that. It's a stretch to even say he's above average at this point. Without Durham they can't run to save their lives. What would you make the line for their game with Vandy in three weeks? If that game was in Baton Rouge(it's not) Vandy would probably be my biggest bet of the year if the Dores were getting 1 point.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
3. USC -6.5 @Illinois (BOL) : This is admittedly a terrible spot for USC, and in most cases I would not lay points with the Trojans on the road going east in the Big Ten until they proved they can, but the "on paper" advantages are just too much to ignore here, especially when you consider the injury problems that Illinois has. The Illini were completely manhandled last week, and a lot of that had to do with the uncanny brilliance of Curt Cignetti and the Indiana staff. They came into that game with a massive motivational advantage as well as the advantage of putting absolutely zero on film for Illinois to potentially exploit while benefitting from Illinois being a bit exposed by tape they had to show in order to show up undefeated for that game. But then they overpowered Illinois physically. In many cases it was Illinois backups because so many starters were either out for that game(when we thought they were going to play) or got hurt during the game. Moving to this week, Illinois is trending to have a lot of guys back, but if there's one thing we've learned about Bielema and injury reports, the surprises are always bad. He likes to indicate guys are going to play, only to have them become unavailable right before the game(Laughery and Bowick last week). Apparently, the 5 guys in the secondary that were hurt last week are all going to play, other than their best guy, Xavier Scott, a potential first rounder and by far their best corner. However, Matthew Bailey is recovering from concussion protocol, so he'll be a game time decision, Kaleb Patterson was in a boot as late as Monday, so he'll be less than 100%, and if Jahiem Clark plays, it will be for the first time this year ona tender hamstring. Even at their best, I don't know that they, o any secondary can hang with this USC receiving corp. There's some talk that Jakobi Lane will miss this game, but there are a ton of guys that can step in at that position after Makai Lemon, and USC is a ton more than a WR corps on offense. JUCO transfer RB Waymond Jordan has been electric, averaging 8 yards a carry and breaking tackles left and right. Maiava is just ok in my opinion, but you can't argue with his numbers so far against a subpar schedule. As for USC defensively, I think Illinois will get a bit of class relief after that impossible environment last week, but D'Anton Lynn knows his shit and they are running roughshod on opposing offensive lines with their pass rush, which is bad news for this weak Illinois offensive line. Maybe they'll right the ship, bu tthey've been whipsawed to the point every opposing coach they've played dogs them in the post game press conference. They can't run it, so they'll have to rely on Altmyer to score, and although I like Altmyer, he can't do it from flat on his ass. Hard to trust USC here, but the numbers are in their favor, and Illinois is way too banged up to be able to stop that offense for very long.
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Appreciate this from the Illini side.
 
Br@ssknux said:
12. @Ole Miss ML (-125) v LSU (BOL) : Since I could get this at -125 I decided to not mess with the -1.5. Doesn't it kind of seem like a loss is inevitable here for LSU? Maybe I feel that way because I still remember the Garret Nussmeier of the A&M second half last year and have seen flashes of that in his play this year. Their wins against Florida and Clemson are what gives them their lofty ranking, but in retrospect those were not very impressive wins. Clemson is Clemson and to only beat Florida by 10 when DJ Lagway looked as if he was on the take was not impressive in the least. They are going to have to depend on Nussmeier being his best this week because Ole Miss can stop the run and the only bright spot fr the LSU running game(Caden Durham) looks like he'll be out for this one. Offensively, Ole Miss is going with Trinidad Chambliss at QB who has looked fantastic when he's been out there, and although LSU has been good defensively, this will be another level of offensive football they'll be grappling with. The vibe around Brian Kelly is very precarious...it almost seems like the whole thing is close to collapsing, and this might be the week. If LSU sacks up and wins here, it'll be an impressive feat to say the least.
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Yup, always ML when that cheap!
 
Br@ssknux said:
10. @Washington +9.5 v Ohio State (BR) : Most of the books have this one at 8.5 but Bet Rivers threw this number up at me and I took it. I'd play 8.5 too. I'm not breaking news when I say that Washington is a completely different team at home than they are on the road, but since they extricated themselves from the Jimmy Lake horror show, they've won 22 straight at home starting with DeBoer's arrival in 2022. After turning Arizona from a zombie apocalypse to one of the hottest teams in the country in late 2023, Jedd Fisch has hit the ground running at Washington too, despite almost having to start from scratch. He knows what he's doing, especially on offense. Washington hasn't really played anyone, but it's obvious they have some real playmakers on offense, starting with Demond Williams at QB, who is averaging 11 yards per attempt and can run with the best of them. They also have all Big Ten types in WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman, who has been among the PFF darlings in every metric for 3 years running. Now they welcome Ohio State, where Julian Sayin will make his first road start in about the toughest environment you could conjure up. He's been fantastic the past two weeks against Ohio and Grambling, but in his one go around against a real defense, Texas held the Buckeyes to 203 yards in the Horseshoe, and if you take away one nice throw to Carnell Tate, he averaged about 4 yards per attempt for the game. Also, I thought Texas dominated the line of scrimmage in that game, and would have won rather easily if they had even poor QB play rather than the feckless performance Arch Manning gave them. Washington has been banged up in the secondary, which is a concern with Smith and Tate out there, but I don't think Ohio State is going to be able to run on Washington. We'll see if OSU uses Bo Jackson rather than CJ Donaldson and James Peoples, who have been underwhelming. Washington is ranked 3rd in yards per carry allowed so far this year, and OSU is only 75th in their FBS games. If OSU can't run, that will put a lot of pressure on Sayin, which I'm not sure he can handle. I think Washington would have to have a disastrous effort to not be in this one. I think they have a good shot at the outright. Their history on Lake Washington certainly suggests it.
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My thing here is we'll have to see about that Huskies run defense.

1. The opponents haven't exactly been great.

2. Big leads can deflate opponents rushing stats A LOT.

Interesting to see how this plays out. If the run defense is as advertised, then this will be a fun one!
 
13. Arizona +5.5(-114) @Iowa State (BR): I've never been much of a Brent Brennan fan, but Arizona has looked pretty good so far. It's a small sample size, but defensively, the Wildcats have been pretty elite, most recently completely flummoxing Kansas State, keeping them to 193 total yards in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicated. Iowa State is unscathed this year, but they haven't blown anyone out and benefitted from some terrible QB play by the opponents (Gronowski's performance in their game with Iowa was detestable). Also, Arkansas State had that game stolen from them a couple weeks ago with not one but 2 TDs called back on phantom penalties. His passing numbers haven't been great so far, but I really like AZ QB Noah Fifita's game as he's a pretty shifty dual threat, and they've run the ball very well this year. Common opponents aren't everything, but we do have one among these team in the young season in Kansas State. Arizona dominated the Cats while The Cyclones got outgained by them in Dublin. The fact that this line is only 5.5 despite the overall profile of these teams speaks volumes, and even then I think it's too high. If Arizona doesn't pee down their leg and gives a solid effort in this one it's going to come down to the wire.

Wishful thinking that Brent Brennan would go into a place like Ames and have a chance to win. Worst call of the week among many.
 
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B.A.R. said:
My thing here is we'll have to see about that Huskies run defense.

1. The opponents haven't exactly been great.

2. Big leads can deflate opponents rushing stats A LOT.

Interesting to see how this plays out. If the run defense is as advertised, then this will be a fun one!
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Absolutely fair points. I'm hoping they hold up well. Bo Jackson has looked good in those blowouts. It'll be interesting to see how they use him here. Seems like Buckeye fans are ready for him to take over.
 
14. @NC State -10 v Virginia Tech (BOL): The NC State defense has been a little porous, well, they've been a lot porous, but I don't think VT is going to put enough enough points in this one to cover this number. The VT defense is ranked 130th in yards per play against, 118th in rushing yards per carry against and 135th in yards per pass attempt against. Now they go on the road and face an NC State offense that's as good or better than what VT has faced so far. CJ Bailey threw 3 picks at Duke last week in a game NC State should have probably won, but other than those 3 throws(I guess?) he's been really good moving their offense. They're not going to be happy coming off that loss and Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers are not going to face much in the way of resistance in this one. Smothers is a PFF darling and he's coming off a 7.2 ypc performance against Duke. We'll see if Kyron Drones can pick himself up from the mat after the bye week, but the Hokies are 108th in yards per play and 107th in yards per pass attempt. I like the Wolfpack to win this one going away.

Another terrible idea here. But I wouldn't call it the worst call of the week because NC State should have done the job here. But they are a non-program. They are a pretender. Anyone who would lose to this VT outfit at home can't be taken seriously, and Doeren has been operating like this for awhile. He's a relatively competent guy and sometimes they're decent, but if you're NC State, you have to have low self esteem to keep going on like this. Games like this happen every year. VT walked in there and kicked their ass. They were the better team from the jump. maybe I should have seen a dead cat bounce, but this was statistically the worst defense in the Power 5, and they were playing on the road against a previously quite capable, polished offense. You can't be a serious program and fail to get 300 yards on them, and then give up 400+. A miserable performance. I would fire Doeren after that. Reality just punched you in the face.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
10. @Washington +9.5 v Ohio State (BR) : Most of the books have this one at 8.5 but Bet Rivers threw this number up at me and I took it. I'd play 8.5 too. I'm not breaking news when I say that Washington is a completely different team at home than they are on the road, but since they extricated themselves from the Jimmy Lake horror show, they've won 22 straight at home starting with DeBoer's arrival in 2022. After turning Arizona from a zombie apocalypse to one of the hottest teams in the country in late 2023, Jedd Fisch has hit the ground running at Washington too, despite almost having to start from scratch. He knows what he's doing, especially on offense. Washington hasn't really played anyone, but it's obvious they have some real playmakers on offense, starting with Demond Williams at QB, who is averaging 11 yards per attempt and can run with the best of them. They also have all Big Ten types in WR Denzel Boston and RB Jonah Coleman, who has been among the PFF darlings in every metric for 3 years running. Now they welcome Ohio State, where Julian Sayin will make his first road start in about the toughest environment you could conjure up. He's been fantastic the past two weeks against Ohio and Grambling, but in his one go around against a real defense, Texas held the Buckeyes to 203 yards in the Horseshoe, and if you take away one nice throw to Carnell Tate, he averaged about 4 yards per attempt for the game. Also, I thought Texas dominated the line of scrimmage in that game, and would have won rather easily if they had even poor QB play rather than the feckless performance Arch Manning gave them. Washington has been banged up in the secondary, which is a concern with Smith and Tate out there, but I don't think Ohio State is going to be able to run on Washington. We'll see if OSU uses Bo Jackson rather than CJ Donaldson and James Peoples, who have been underwhelming. Washington is ranked 3rd in yards per carry allowed so far this year, and OSU is only 75th in their FBS games. If OSU can't run, that will put a lot of pressure on Sayin, which I'm not sure he can handle. I think Washington would have to have a disastrous effort to not be in this one. I think they have a good shot at the outright. Their history on Lake Washington certainly suggests it.
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I was really impressed w OSU elite speed on defense in the Texas gm. Even with the change in coordinators, losing Knowles their ability to scheme run fits in their defense has been very impressive. They have shown well against mobile qbs so far (Manning, Navarro) not giving up more than 40 yards. Sayin has been extremely accurate so far and we know OSU WRs are elite every year. This should be a really good game to watch.
 
15. Oregon +3.5 @Penn State (BOL): This is a square play. I realize that. I just can't get over how sleepy these numbers look for Penn State even though I am positive they have shown absolutely nothing in their first three games. How could you possibly make a more cushy scenario for Penn State. 3 straight home games against cupcakes and then a bye week before their first real game with Oregon. It sets up well for them, but now they actually have to play for real. In their first three games, there is not really any impressive statistic they've accumulated. They haven't even run the ball all that well against Nevada, FIU and Villanova. Against the run, those 3 goliaths actually ran it decent enough that Penn State is ranked only 25th. They should be #1 with a bullet against that schedule. They haven't converted third downs and Allar has looked as pedestrian as ever. Maybe they have all kinds of tricks up their sleeve and they'll just turn it on and Oregon will shrink like a violet, but I doubt it. Oregon has studs all over the field, and although I still remember the Dante Moore Pick 6 express when he was at UCLA, he's under a different staff now. I trust Lanning and Will Stein to have the Ducks ready. Franklin is hard to trust in big games like this even with those coordinators. I think this at least comes down to the wore. Oregon is a tough squad. I don't see them folding in this spot.

This was a great game, but is it me, or did it look like Oregon looked like a bunch of kids playing flag football in those uniforms? I couldn't even tell what color their pants were until there was a close up because they were so short. I'm an old man, but is it asking too much to have them actually wear football uniforms?

As for the game, I wanted Penn State to prove they could win this game against severe competition and they failed. Moore looked good. Good job by Penn State getting off the mat and getting it to OT, but they were outplayed. 424-276 yard edge for the Ducks, they were easily the right side.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
11. Indiana -8.5 @Iowa (BOL): I know this looks square but I don't care. I'm still shellshocked by what Indiana did to my alma mater. Granted, Illinois was down to grammar school kids out there in blue jeans in the secondary in the second half, but my goodness, that staff just totally worked the Illinois staff, which is a pretty good staff! They manhandled Illinois at both lines of scrimmage and knew just how to exploit them. Not to mention they have some pretty fucking good players too. Putting aside the current Heisman candidate at QB who has a 16/0 ratio(!!!) Those two receivers, Cooper and Surrat are criminally underrated, and they have 4 different backs that can hurt you and defensive guys at all 3 levels that are 1st team all Big Ten caliber(Kamara, Fisher, Ponds). This Iowa team is coming off a nice win at Rutgers, but they were somewhat lucky to win and got outplayed for large portions of the game. Defensively, they spent 2.5 quarters getting shredded by Athan Kaliakmanis until they finally put him out of his misery. They looked passable on offense against that terrible Rutgers defense but they will be facing something they cannot handle this week. Ultimately, I could have just said. "Indiana is a wrecking machine. I will be betting them until I lose." That's basically my handicap, but I figured I'd throw in some window dressing too. I get that its a bad spot, and Iowa as a home dog is getting more points than anyone would ever imagine they'd get, blah blah blah whatever. I'd probably lay 21. If Cignetti wants to cover this, he will. If he doesn't, he just didn't feel like it.
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"If Cignetti wants to cover this, he will." Oh, he wants to. No question about it. For the rest of the year. This guy is spitting nails, and his team follows their leader.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. UCLA +6.5(-114) @Northwestern (BR): This is the buy low spot of buy low spots. UCLA was so bad against new Mexico a couple weeks ago that they absolutely had to fire DeShaun Foster immediately. They named Tim Skipper the interim, who was the HC at Fresno last year, so at least they have someone who has run a program and can get them organized. I checked to see if there was any exodus prior to the redshirt deadline, but I can't find any players having given up yet, which can only be construed as a pretty good sign. Skipper reported good practices during the off week, and they can't possibly be worse than how they looked 2 Fridays ago. Last year at about this time even with Foster around they caught a bit of a wind, going on a covering streak amid a brutal schedule. I can see that happening here, and this game represents without question their best chance at a win. When they went on the road at UNLV they pretty much dominated the Rebels in the second half, so maybe we'll see some evidence of that here. Northwestern is certainly a good candidate to fade as a 6 point favorite as they thrive in the dog role much more than as a favorite. Preston Stone has been atrocious, completing under 60% of his throws and with a 3/6 ratio. PFF has him for 10 turnover worthy plays, which is TOTALLY believable if you watched even a few minutes of their opener at Tulane. Their top RB Cam Porter is out for the year, and their run defense has been terrible (127th in ypc), which is about the only area of decent results for UCLA. This might be a game where Nico feels himself a little bit before going back to a total poseur next week at home against Penn State. UCLA is about the last team anyone would want to bet on given their performance this year, but I think this is a good spot for them to succeed.
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Dead cat bounce! Fire the head coach and the first game team plays better which usually means a cover.
 
Timh said:
Brass what is your read on Cal/BC, after Cal shit the bed last week.
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Sorry I never made it back to the thread today Timmy. Missed the opportunity on Cal, but I had that capped as a bounce back for both teams. BC was off a bye after their Stanford debacle, which was almost as bad as Cal's. Stayed away.
 
Br@ssknux said:
14. @NC State -10 v Virginia Tech (BOL): The NC State defense has been a little porous, well, they've been a lot porous, but I don't think VT is going to put enough enough points in this one to cover this number. The VT defense is ranked 130th in yards per play against, 118th in rushing yards per carry against and 135th in yards per pass attempt against. Now they go on the road and face an NC State offense that's as good or better than what VT has faced so far. CJ Bailey threw 3 picks at Duke last week in a game NC State should have probably won, but other than those 3 throws(I guess?) he's been really good moving their offense. They're not going to be happy coming off that loss and Bailey and RB Hollywood Smothers are not going to face much in the way of resistance in this one. Smothers is a PFF darling and he's coming off a 7.2 ypc performance against Duke. We'll see if Kyron Drones can pick himself up from the mat after the bye week, but the Hokies are 108th in yards per play and 107th in yards per pass attempt. I like the Wolfpack to win this one going away.

Another terrible idea here. But I wouldn't call it the worst call of the week because NC State should have done the job here. But they are a non-program. They are a pretender. Anyone who would lose to this VT outfit at home can't be taken seriously, and Doeren has been operating like this for awhile. He's a relatively competent guy and sometimes they're decent, but if you're NC State, you have to have low self esteem to keep going on like this. Games like this happen every year. VT walked in there and kicked their ass. They were the better team from the jump. maybe I should have seen a dead cat bounce, but this was statistically the worst defense in the Power 5, and they were playing on the road against a previously quite capable, polished offense. You can't be a serious program and fail to get 300 yards on them, and then give up 400+. A miserable performance. I would fire Doeren after that. Reality just punched you in the face.
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Totally right on Doeren…and major accolades for the dead cat bounce reference 🫡


Get em next week. Also, did you already go to BR?
 
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