Week 5 What Are We Learning

Learned that a new concussion protocol was put in place yesterday to where if you don't have a concussion but enough people think you do you...then you do.
 
Early games, lets see if there's anything new from what I thought in the discussion thread:

- Indy-Denver - hard to touch with both teams banged up and coming off losses. Not sure who wins although my fantasy teams are rooting hard for Denver.
Great game to stay away from. Too many pieces missing to learn much except that Russ and Hackett don't mesh.

- Giants-Green Bay (london) - You can move the ball on the ground against both these teams, and both will want to run the ball. Like the under 41 for that reason. Side is tight.
If you had told me that the Pack would finish with 22 I'd have said great, go cash my ticket. 120 offensive plays, so pace was as slow as advertised. Giants ran it more than they threw it. Rodgers decided it was going to be a Rodgers game so while Jones and Dillon should get 30 touches a game they got 21. And they lost. And that will happen a couple of more times this year, probably in the playoffs.

- Pitt-Buffalo - Revenge angle for the Bills. Pickett makes his first start. No Watt has meant defense is susceptible for Pitt. At +14 this is likely the biggest dog Tomlin has ever been. They were +12 against the Chiefs last year and were blown out of the building. Something along the lines of 33-17 covers. Steelers just blew a 10 point lead to Zach Wilson, who btw is a year younger than Pickett. Big number early in the year but 'm inclined to lay the 14.
Saw one power ranking this week that had the Bills at #2 and the Steelers at #29. That certainly looks to be the case right now. Tomlin trying a FG in the 2nd Q down 28-3 was curious. Tomlin trying a FG down 31-3 in the 3rd Q was high comedy and a total give up. No Watt until November, no wins until November?

- LAC-Cleveland - Browns coming off a bad loss to Atlanta, Chargers hung on to win at Houston. Browns were getting beat through the air until last week, when they got bludgeoned by the run. Meanwhile Chargers are getting run on, which is what the Browns want to do. Can see over the 47.5 in play.
Game played at as expected. Each team ran all over the other and when they didn't the QBs stepped up. Brissett is good enough to hang 24 on most teams, but the Browns D has not been good except vs. Pitt.

- Chicago-Minny - Bears run and get run on. Vikings more balanced. Hard to back an over in any Bears/Giants/Falcons game. Probably a pass on this one.
Game sailed over as Fields was surprisingly efficient on his 21 throws. Vikings had 74-47 play advantage. Game would've been more comfortably in their hands if Joseph could make FGs over 50 yards. As it was the win but don't cover the two score line.

- Detroit-NE - Not sure who the QB is in New England yet, but I'm not sure it matters. Healthy dose of 37 & 38 coming. Also not sure who's playing for the Lions yet. Teams are moving the ball on the Pats, but I think they try to take the air out of the ball and grind out a 40 min TOP win. I'll lay the 3.
Well I think we were headed as expected until Harris pulled a hammy, so Stevenson got all the run and my DFS lineups took a hit. Looks like hoodie was able to scheme Hockenson & St. Brown out of the game and the Lions couldn't get enough production elsewhere. Bailey Zappe had a QB rating of 100.0 and he even got Meyer a rare TD.

- Seattle-NO - Geno and company off a thrilling shootout but the back to back trips to the east time zone have to be taking a toll. Saints at least get to come home. I think they welcome seeing a bottom five defense and cover the -5.5.
Taysom freaking Hill, look for him to be named Player of the Week. Geno continues to ball, which is such a kick in the pants to Russ.

- Miami-NYJ - Teddy gets the start, and he just wins games. Jets off a win but a still pretty up and down. Miami -3 for me.
Until this game things were going pretty good. Then Teddy lasts what, 1 play. Should've realized that Miami would be super conscious of concussion protocols. The Jets hang a 40 burger with zero passing touchdowns? Skylar Thompson made Kenny Pickett look good.

- Atlanta-Tampa - Falcons take their running circus to Tampa, who's getting a bit pissed off back to back home losses. Tom has his weapons back and is starting to look good again. They're also still good against the run. I like them to cover -8.5.
This one was a killer. Bucs led 21-0 in the 3rd then dicked around for three series and let the Falcons get two TDs on 13 runs and only 5 throws. Still had a chance to cover late but they hit a 3rd and 7 conversion while in FG range to run the clock out. Right side, bad result.

- Tenny-Wash - Both teams have been decent against the run but are getting thrown on. Both teams lost their up and coming rookie WR. I'm interested to see if Robinson plays for WFT and what he might add. Probably staying away from this one.
Close, back and forth game, turning on a few plays late. Neither team is one I have much interest in backing most weeks.

- Houston-Jax - Texans showed some life late last week and took both games from the Jags last year. This is a measuring stick game for Jacksonville, they gave a good account in Philly and are expected to take care of business this week. I just don't know if laying over a touchdown is worth the risk. Pass.
AFC South is weird. Colts can't handle the Jags and the Jags can't handle the Texans. But there's no real rhyme or reason why.
 
Late game reviews
- San Fran-Carolina - Niners defense showed out but now they go across country on short rest. Panthers have been getting CMac going lately. This is their fourth home game in the first five weeks, so there's some urgency here for them. Niners have been funky on the road this year. I kinda like taking the +6.5.
Bad overestimate of the Panthers. Baker has been brutal, so bad he actually got replaced late. Niners D has been absolutely dominant this year, run game is winning even with retreads like Wilson and Coleman toting the rock, and Jimmy G is spreading it around when needed.

- Dallas-LAR - Sounds like Dak is going to wait another week or two before returning. I think it puts them in a better position since defense has been the team's identity so far. Rams played OK on D against the Niners but their offense is just out of kilter and the OL just got dominated. Now Micah and DLaw come to town. I think +4.5 is the choice although Rams might win by 3.
OK, love my Boys, but lets get real. Cooper Rush threw for 100 yards. That's not sustainable. Cowboys will be in most games with that defense but they do need a healthy Dak back at the helm. DLaw and Micah both got a little nicked up but were able to keep going. The Rams are being completely overmatched on the OL but the Panthers are coming in next week.

- Philly-Ari - Wondering if the Cards turned a corner with their win at Carolina. Philly is just rolling along but its more in spurts than a continuous pounding. They've scored points in just 5 of the last 12 quarters, which is unusual. I'll pass on this one.
Cards had Philly right where they wanted them, coming back from a 0-14 deficit. It doesn't seem like Kyler gets interested until they get behind. In the end the battle of the backup kickers went to Philly. That's an unknown variable worth avoiding. Eagles are unbeaten but not looking unbeatable. Again they had a hot stretch, this time the first 20 minutes, and then spun their wheels the rest of the time. They haven't put together a full game yet, one has to wonder if they are good enough to do so.
 
Vapster said:
Why Ask Why?! Drink Bud Dry And Remember Houston Is 15-2 Straight Up VS Jax Last 17...

:shake:
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Used to love Bud Dry.

I may have mentioned it last week about blind betting dogs, which I didn't do, again. Anyone have a dog-fave ats season tally? Dogs gotta be at least 65%
 
emg2525 said:
We’re learning that Brandon Staley isn’t learning. Even in a win.
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I guess I understand the criticism and hate that Staley gets, but if we really look at it, it's illogical and almost comical to harp on him and his decisions. As I mentioned in the in game thread after Monday night's game, either we trust the math or we don't. The decision Staley made yesterday was analyzed by "analytics guys" and they all came to the conclusion that he made the correct decision on the 4th and 1+ yard.

We heard for years upon years about how coaches are too conservative and always make the pussy decision...then analytics came around and we saw that yes, in fact, most (if not all) coaches were WAY TOO conservative and were actually doing things that were counter productive based on the math and odds. Everyone wanted "their coach" to start using analytics to make decisions.

Now we get some guys who are using the analytics correctly (and again, what people clamored for for years) and someone like Staley is second guessed every decision he makes. If you want your coach to be an "analytics guy" then that means he's going to make some decisions that look silly, or wrong, or not what we're used to...but if he's using the analytics consistently, there is no room for criticism. He can't be picking and choosing when the math makes sense to him, he just goes with the fucking math.

Just like we didn't like when our coach who always played field position and made the "safe call" decided to go out on a limb and go for it on 4th and 2...because they weren't being consistent in their decision making, they weren't staying in their philosophy so to speak. The same should apply to Staley and other coaches like him. People should get upset when he breaks from the pure math based decision and decides to revert to "old school" thinking.

He is, and has been consistent in his decisions...THAT is what any fan should appreciate and commend. If you want an analytics type coach who makes decisions based on the math of the situation, you have to live with that EVERY time, not just when you think it makes sense, because the math probably doesn't agree with you, it probably agrees with Staley, which is why he's doing what he's doing in that spot.
 
Sorry Jedi. It does not matter what the math says, what Staley did yesterday will never be the correct move. He basically gave instant game winning field goal position to the Browns. IF the Browns were not the Browns the game is over.

There is too conservative, there is too aggressive and there is just plain dumb.

You have a great punter, kick the ball and pin them inside their own 20 with no timeouts.
 
Coverdatspred said:
Sorry Jedi. It does not matter what the math says, what Staley did yesterday will never be the correct move. He basically gave instant game winning field goal position to the Browns. IF the Browns were not the Browns the game is over.

There is too conservative, there is too aggressive and there is just plain dumb.

You have a great punter, kick the ball and pin them inside their own 20 with no timeouts.
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The math said otherwise. It was the correct decision if the coach is following the math and trying to seal the game there.

It isn't the "correct move" in the minds of us who have watched football for decades without the analytics, I agree there for sure.

They also did, in fact, win the game. I wasn't even using the outcome in my analysis, and that should almost always be the case too...regardless of the outcome, at that time in that spot, the math said going for it made the most sense (and it didn't seem relatively close based on those twitter breakdowns).
 
Coverdatspred said:
Sorry Jedi. It does not matter what the math says, what Staley did yesterday will never be the correct move. He basically gave instant game winning field goal position to the Browns. IF the Browns were not the Browns the game is over.

There is too conservative, there is too aggressive and there is just plain dumb.

You have a great punter, kick the ball and pin them inside their own 20 with no timeouts.
Click to expand...

And the overall point in this particular case with Staley is that it does matter what the math says, and will ALWAYS matter what the math says...because that's who Staley is and that's how he's going to coach and make decisions on the field.

That's more to what I was really trying to say...fans were ALL about Staley and his analytics approach when he was hired (insert any coach here doing the same), until he makes a decision (based on the math, and the same thing they just loved 2 minutes ago) they don't like because they've been watching the same type of decision making for decades and all of a sudden he's a moron and he needs to be fired. It's just funny to me, that's all. You have to live with the "good" and the "bad" decisions, and just know that Staley is being consistent and doing what the analytics tell him to do.
 
No different than “analytically” the argument was made by many that under the old NFL overtime rules that a team should play defense first. There’s one thing that trumps analytics sometimes, and that’s common sense.

IMO, while I appreciate Staley’s analytical style of coaching and welcome it…he has gotten reckless with it, as opposed to using it as a tool.
 
2 coaches who holding back incredibly talented teams.


I been saying this for 2 years but Staley is a terrible coach! He damn lucky that stupid ass desicion didn’t cost them yet another game! All that talent and chargers will never win anything till they replace that guy. They still can’t stop the run, this guy supposed to know the defensive side, has tons of talent to work with, but his philosophy amd schemes are Ass!!

It’s painfully obvious Zach Taylor isn’t a nfl head coach, bungals luck box run to the super bowl has pretty much guaranteed this clown will remain their head coach, burrow and all that talent won’t be able to continue overcoming this losers play calling! Does he even understand route concepts or pre snap motion and formations can get guys open? He clearly has no concept of protection schemes! Going 5 wide with no protection for his qb is not the way to succeed with this talent! Teams have figured them out, play 2 deep and play games with the front 4 to get pressure. Nothing screams how figured out he is like last night where a ravens team Burrow threw for damn near 1000 yards in 2 games last year could only muster 17 points last night. This guy is awful and it will continue holding back another team with more than enough talent! This idiot ran the ball 25x against Miami when their corners were hurt and exhausted for 2 yards a carry but last night mixon was going for 5.6 a carry on a long of 12 and he only gets 14 rushes? Lmfao. Guy is clueless!!
 
I’d throw that clown broncos hired in there also but that too easy and at least it just his 1st year. Staley and Taylor have proven incompetent over multiple seasons!
 
jedi ninja said:
And the overall point in this particular case with Staley is that it does matter what the math says, and will ALWAYS matter what the math says...because that's who Staley is and that's how he's going to coach and make decisions on the field.

That's more to what I was really trying to say...fans were ALL about Staley and his analytics approach when he was hired (insert any coach here doing the same), until he makes a decision (based on the math, and the same thing they just loved 2 minutes ago) they don't like because they've been watching the same type of decision making for decades and all of a sudden he's a moron and he needs to be fired. It's just funny to me, that's all. You have to live with the "good" and the "bad" decisions, and just know that Staley is being consistent and doing what the analytics tell him to do.
Click to expand...

The problem is the same problem with guys who bet mlb using analytics as the be all end all. The world ain’t black and white, the shit should be a valuable tool, not the be all end all. Use them to help make aggressive but intelligent decisions, don’t be a prisoner to them. Anyone who ever been any good at madden knows there a time and place to be aggressive and there a time to take the points or punt the ball. Truthfully that not even the worst thing about Staley tho! He cut his chops as a DC, the guy sucks at defense! His teams continually get gashed in the run game cause he thinks running not as efficient so somehow it good teams control games against them with the run.
 
Gandolf said:
Why does that chart say to go for it on 4th and 8 inside your own 20? But it also says to punt on 4th and 9? There's something not right about that chart.
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I’m not sure but I noticed that as well. I haven’t seen the OP answer that question in the replies yet, if he does I will report back.
 
Gandolf said:
Why does that chart say to go for it on 4th and 8 inside your own 20? But it also says to punt on 4th and 9? There's something not right about that chart.
Click to expand...
I think because if you punt from your own 5, up 2 with a minute to go, you’re putting the other team in FG range instantly. You’re giving up a FG whether you punt, or go for it & don’t make it. Might as well go for it, and if you happen to get the first down, game is over and you win.

That upside is what people are missing in this discussion. Everyone is saying Staley going for it and missing puts CLE in FG range. But if they make the first down, game is over. That is huge. You could punt 50 yards, and still give up a drive into FG range.
 
2daBank said:
The problem is the same problem with guys who bet mlb using analytics as the be all end all. The world ain’t black and white, the shit should be a valuable tool, not the be all end all. Use them to help make aggressive but intelligent decisions, don’t be a prisoner to them. Anyone who ever been any good at madden knows there a time and place to be aggressive and there a time to take the points or punt the ball. Truthfully that not even the worst thing about Staley tho! He cut his chops as a DC, the guy sucks at defense! His teams continually get gashed in the run game cause he thinks running not as efficient so somehow it good teams control games against them with the run.
Click to expand...
1000% the analytics are wrong. remember penn state illinois last year in overtime in like 6 overtimes they couldn't convert 2 pointers, the "analytics" says that probability with a 50 percent chance on each 2 pointer is impossible to go to 6 overtimes..........the question then needs to be asked where is the data these analytics are pulling from, if they are including data from games of a dominant team who is bludgeoning their opponent going for it on 4th and 2 it's not applicable. Far too many coaches for it on 4th and short when they just got stopped 3 DOWNS IN A ROW on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd and short or goal and then think their is a 50% analytics chance of getting it on 4th......and they don't kick a field goal and end up with 0 points. Insert Brandon Staley, idiot......sign of a bad coach is not fixing a weakness after the offseason and they added some nice defensive tackles to that team too. It's like mel tucker i really thought he was a decent coach but you had 1 job all offseason and you come back and your pass defense is worse ?

MLB for life of me i haven't figured out why there is not an analytical value assigned to someone who strikes out ???? why is that not a "negative" that is accounted for ? I mean if there is based loaded with 0 out, a strikeout is a profoundly negative that takes away runs.
 
jedi ninja said:
And the overall point in this particular case with Staley is that it does matter what the math says, and will ALWAYS matter what the math says...because that's who Staley is and that's how he's going to coach and make decisions on the field.

That's more to what I was really trying to say...fans were ALL about Staley and his analytics approach when he was hired (insert any coach here doing the same), until he makes a decision (based on the math, and the same thing they just loved 2 minutes ago) they don't like because they've been watching the same type of decision making for decades and all of a sudden he's a moron and he needs to be fired. It's just funny to me, that's all. You have to live with the "good" and the "bad" decisions, and just know that Staley is being consistent and doing what the analytics tell him to do.
Click to expand...
I just posted above why i disagree with staleys analytis - but definately agree staley had nothing but fanboys all last year, people were frankly slobbering over this guy calling him a genius for going for it on 4th down so much his first couple games. Now the pro analytics are even upset at this decision in Cleveland - go figure.

I'm still waiting for the warren sharps of the world to say they might of been wrong about seattle mis-using russ wilson and holding him back
 
If I were Staley I would have gone for it. If you are handed a scenario at the beginning of the game and someone said, “if you get one yard on one play, you win”, who doesn’t take it? That’s literally the scenario. No gray area. Get a yard and you win. The end.
 
Capaholic said:
If I were Staley I would have gone for it. If you are handed a scenario at the beginning of the game and someone said, “if you get one yard on one play, you win”, who doesn’t take it? That’s literally the scenario. No gray area. Get a yard and you win. The end.
Click to expand...

AND in the real scenario, failing doesn't mean a 100% loss either.
 
We continue to learn about the overeactions with young QBs. Lawrence was generational when drafted, a complete bust under Urban back to generational the first few weeks under Pederson and now back to being a bust over the last few weeks.

Let these guys play and stop the crazy absolutes in both directions.
 
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