Week 5 plays, leans, and my opinion on Cincy/SDSU

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 5-5, +2.25u
Week 2: 5-4, +0.8u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 3: 7-3-1, +6.85u (also 0-1 on ML plays)
Week 4: 6-6, -2.575u
Straight plays: 23-18-1, +8.125u
MLs: 0-2, -0.8u
Total: 23-20-1, +7.325u

Not a great week last week, but I was still happy with the majority of my plays. I stand by the Idaho and Oregon St. plays, as turnovers doomed those teams. Did get very lucky with the small play on the Buffalo/Baylor over as there were 2 TDs in the last 3:15.

Season plays:

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins (4.2u to win 4): W 38-35 (1-3)
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins (3.45u to win 3): L 23-28 (2-2)
South Carolina Over 7 Wins (2.4u to win 2): L 16-28 (3-1)

Obviously, a horrendous week for the season plays. Still confident in South Carolina, GT looks like possible trouble, while what once was a lock with Syracuse gets a little shaky, especially with Miami OH and Buffalo coming up.

Week 5 plays:

Colorado St +13 (3.3u to win 3) - This line is 5 points off IMO. Write-up coming.
Buffalo +17 (-120) (2.4u to win 2)
Cincinnati -13 (2.2u to win 2)
Western Michigan -1 (2.2u to win 2)
UCLA/Oregon St Under 55 (2.2u to win 2)
Rutgers -13 (1.65u to win 1.5) - Middled with Maryland +18 for the same amount.
Akron +14 (-115) (1.725u to win 1.5)
Florida Atlantic/Kentucky Over 65 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Central Michigan -3 (1.65u to win 1.5)

ML Experiment

Temple +220 (0.25u to win 0.55)
Colorado St. +370 (0.25u to win 0.925)
Akron +550 (0.25u to win 1.375)

Week 5 Leans:

Central Michigan -3
North Texas +36


Very happy with the openers that I bet. One regret is Temple, as it came out at +9.5 and I stared at it as it fell to 7.

Write-ups either tonight or tomorrow at the latest. GL to all this week. :cheers:
 
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Dmoney, Vandals melted down on us this weekend. I have a strong lean to Colorado St, the more I look at the line the less I understand it. I have no doubt in my mind that Caleb Hanie can throw on TCU and as long as he can throw then they got a shot at putting some points up. I will say that the team could be a little deflated after blowing the huge lead vs. Houston this past weekend. It just is not in TCU's DNA to blow teams out this yr, even though they beat CSU by about 30 last yr.
 
Colorado St +13 at TCU

TCU has scored 78 points in 4 games this season. This is not an especially alarming number considering it is just under 20 points per game. However, looking at their opponents, it becomes more of a concern. They have played Baylor (27 points), Texas (13), Air Force (17), and SMU (21). With the exception of Texas, this TCU team has gone up against 3 sub-par defenses and have failed to produce. Three of their scores have been defensive scores, and they only have three offensive TDs since week 1's win at Baylor. They scored one offensive TD against a hapless SMU defense and we all saw how they gave away the AF game despite 40 plays inside the AF territory in the 2nd half.

The TCU offense is basically hopeless outside of running back Aaron Brown, who returned in a limited capacity against SMU for 11 carries. They will ride him completely if he is able to go.

TCU will ride their defense, who has forced 9 turnovers through 4 games. Truth is though, every QB except for AF's Shaun Carney (193 yards) has thrown for over 200 yards on them so far this season. These QBs were ultimately doomed by turnovers, but they obviously have had some success.

Colorado St. comes in at 0-3 but has had one of the tougher starting schedules in the country. They faltered @Colorado in OT 31-28, lost to #10 Cal at home 34-28, and lost last week @Houston 38-27. Now they go to TCU, who is actually arguably the worst team that they have faced thus far. Kyle Bell leads a steady, grind it out rushing attack, but the strength of this team is QB Caleb Hanie and the passing game. He has completed 68.7% of his passes thus far, which includes an impressive 9.12 yards per attempt. He has 7 TDs compared to 4 INTs. They did lose TE Kory Sperry for the season, but they have a slew of WRs to pick up the slack. This an underrated passing attack and an offense that actually outgained Colorado and Cal in their losses. Hanie has thrown for 220+ in each of the first three, and he seems to be effective in the short and vertical passing game.

I feel that Hanie will do enough to keep this team in the game. TCU's offense simply can not cover this spread on their own. Unless CSU hands them points, I think this stays close the whole way.

TCU 20
Colorado St. 17
 
Cincinnati (-13) at San Diego St

I didn't plan on touching this game. I thought this was a fairly easy line to set. -17 seemed very correct to me, but I have to bite at under two TDs.

Now, I realize that this is basically the worst situational spot possible for the Bearcats. They have a cross-country road trip the week before conference play starts. The first conference game is @Rutgers where Rutgers is in a revenge spot. However, I feel Cincy has enough to take control in this game.

San Diego St suffered massive defensive losses after last season (they still gave up 27 ppg last season) and as a result, this team has no real semblance of a defense. SDSU gave up 654 yards to Washington St. (and 45 points), 479 yards to Arizona St. (and 34 points), and 458 to I-AA Portland St. (and 17 points). Both Washington St. and Portland St. threw for over 400 yards against them. While Cincy's spread attack does not have the same effectiveness as Arizona St's or Washington St's, they have a more effective defense and should be able to contain the Aztecs.

San Diego St only scored 14 ppg last season. With nine guys returning, this offense has improved, but some of their numbers are deceiving.

- Kevin O'Connell is 69-113 for 896 yards, 6 TDs, and 2 INT on the season. 443 of these yards and 5 of these TDs came against Portland St.
- RB Brandon Bornes has 37 carries for 184 yards (5.0 avg) on the season. Much of this were on 59 yard and 41 yard runs. Take these away, and he has 35 carries for 84 yards. He was shut down against Portland St. with 39 yards on 18 carries.
- WR Brett Swain has 16 catches, 336 yards (21.0 avg), and 3 TDs on the year. He had 6 receptions for 224 yards and 3 TDs against Portland St. This includes 75 yard, 53 yard, and 30 yard catches.

Not trying to take credit away from their improving offense, but they obviously will not be able to do the things against Cincy that they did against Portland St.

The story remained the same for Cincy this week, a 40-14 win sparked by defense and turnovers. Bernard Morris actually played quite well, but Cincy held when it mattered. Expect more of the same this week.

The formula for this game is simple. Much of SDSU's success has come against Portland St. They have yet to see a defense close to the caliber of Cincinnati's. While SDSU has faced more prolific offenses, I feel that Cincy will have enough to make their mark. Given SDSU's pass D so far, I am confident that either Mauk or Grutza can do the job this week. It wouldn't surprise to see Cincy sleepwalk early on, but they should rebound for a comfortable victory.

Cincinnati 37
San Diego St. 14
 
Adding:

Western Michigan -1 (2.2u to win 2)


Also, I'd appreciate if someone could tell me more about Penn St. It seemed like an easy enough play at first, but I looked at last year's box score, and Illinois basically dominated that game, but lost due to turnovers.
 
Dmoney - Awesome writeups and analysis bro! My only play thus far is Penn St.

I agree with your analysis of Cinci @ SDSU for the most part, though this one is a NO-PLAY on my list for a couple of reasons.

For starters, SDSU's first two games were against tough, Pac-10 opponents (ASU & Wazzu, both on the road). SDSU did give up 17 to Portland State, but the offense put up 52, which forced the Vikings to go to the air for most of the 2nd Half. I'm definitely not saying our defense is good, but this game was definitely not a shootout. O'Connell has been serviceable, and Bornes has been streaky.

Cinci, on the other hand, has played Southeast Mizzouri State (LOL), MiamiOH (who got crushed/shutout by Colorado), and Marshall (giving up nearly 300 yards/game on the ground). Their only legit opponent to this point has been Oregon State, who fell apart on National TV with a hapless Canfield at the helm. I look at OSU's game against Cinci much like UCLA's game against Utah...nothing went right for the Beavers that night.

I'm just a little leary of laying so many points on the road with the Bearcat offense. Yes, they've looked good...but this will only be their second road game so far this season, and a very long one at that (Cinci to San Diego). Their other road-game was right around the corner in Miami(OH).

And, this is also a bit of a trap game for Cinci. This team is new to the Top-25 realm, and they're traveling to play a team that everyone thinks they will handle with ease. It's easy to fall from grace when you suddenly shift from the Underdog to the Favored. With a potential Top-25 matchup against Rutgers looming next week, it's tough not to think that some of the Bearcat's will be thinking ahead to their biggest road game of the season.

Again, I do think you're on the right side...but it's still a no play for me. I typically don't bet against the Aztecs anyway.

GL this week!

:cheers:
 
Nice write-ups thus far. As for the Penn. St. game, I think a better play would be the under whatever that number is. Both defenses are pretty stingy. I couldn't bet on Penn. St. during the game they played Notre Dame because I was sure that there offense couldn't get them the points but the Defense helped them get good field position and score. I don't think the offense can move the ball up and down the field. Illinois, on the other hand, hasn't even played a team with a tough defense yet. So it's hard to say, I think the line is right. But if there's an O/U in the 40's or above, then i would have to take the under.
:cheers:
 
Thanks for the thoughts Aztec and bell. Helps me get a better outlook on those contests. Thanks Hunt, ETG, and RO as well - GL this week.

Getting this now since it seems to be dropping: It is 15.5 on Pinny and 16 on BM:

Buffalo +17 (-120) (2.4u to win 2)
 
Sorry that I wasn't around for the totals discussion earlier, but I was at work and trying to sneak a peek at the totals. Missed the Aub/Fla Under 59 and the Arky/North Texas Over 66, but managed to snag one:

Florida Atlantic/Kentucky Over 65 (1.65u to win 1.5)

VK, write-up coming...
 
Western Michigan (-1) at Toledo

Early Injury Report:

WESTERN MICH

Linebacker Austin Pritchard (9/24, knee) is questionable for Saturday's game against Toledo.

- Pritchard is a starting outside LB. He had 27 tackles and 2 sacks last year.


 TOLEDO

*Defensive lineman Douglas Westbrook (9/25, undisclosed) is questionable for Saturday's game against Western Michigan.
Defensive end Sean Williamson (9/20, left leg) will miss the remainder of the season.
Safety Greg Harris (9/24, leg) is questionable for Saturday's game against Western Michigan.
Cornerback Nigel Morris (9/24, undisclosed) is questionable for Saturday's game against Western Michigan.
Safety Tyrell Herbert (9/24, undisclosed) is questionable for Saturday's game against Western Michigan.
Offensive tackle Jan Gewott (9/5, right knee) will miss the remainder of the season.

- Westbrook is a back-up DE
- Williamson is a starting DE. He was 4th on the team with 47 tackles LY.
- CB Morris is a starting CB and was 5th on the team with 45 tackles LY. He also had 2 INTs.
- Herbert is the starting safety - he led the team LY with 74 tackles and 3 INT.

WMU seems to be recovering form injuries while there are some questions for some of Toledo's vital defensive starters. They did not escape the Iowa St. game unscathed.

The Game

I simply think that WMU is the better team here, and they very well still be the frontrunner for the MAC despite the slow start.

Both teams started off 0-3, but both rebounded with a win last weekend. Toledo won at home against Iowa St. 36-35 behind two late scores. Western Michigan coasted 51-14 over Central Connecticut St.

Against Purdue, Central Mich, Kansas, and Iowa St., this Toledo defense has already given up 184 points. They have given up at least 35 points in every game thus far. They have been dominated both on the ground and in the air. Teams have passed for 13 TDs and 2 INT against them thus far, and one of these INTs was off of Purdue backup QB, Joey Elliot. Each QB has also passed for 240+ yards.

On the ground, Purdue ran for 244 yards on 32 carries (7.2 avg). Central Mich ran for 218 yards on 42 carries (5.2 avg). Kansas ran for 232 yards on 46 carries (5.0 avg). While they held Iowa St. to a 2.8 avg on the ground, Jamaciah Bass still had 134 yards. Bottom line, they can not stop anyone, and some of these stats were accumulated against an Iowa St. team that lacks offensive punch and against a CMU team that was trounced by North Dakota St.

While WMU has also been beat up on defense, I believe that their slate of opponents (WVU, Indiana, and Missouri) is far more impressive than Toledo's. This defense must be relieved that they no longer have to face the unique rushing attack of WVU or the vaunted passing attack of Missouri.

Sorry, not too much in depth analysis here. I feel that WMU is more balanced, is stronger on both lines, has the better defense, and has the better offense. WMU's injury situation also seems to be better at this point in time.

Western Michigan 38
Toledo 28
 
This is in RJ's injury thread, but figured I'd post it here as well as it is more ammo for the CSU bet.

Blake to take medical leave of absence
Associated Press

Updated: September 25, 2007, 3:57 PM ET
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FORT WORTH, Texas -- TCU defensive end Tommy Blake will miss at least the next two games on medical leave, the second time this season he's been sidelined for undisclosed reasons.

Coach Gary Patterson, who made the announcement Tuesday, and other school officials wouldn't elaborate. That was also the case when Blake left campus in mid-August and went home for personal reasons, missing five practices and a scrimmage.

Patterson said Blake, who also missed the season opener, won't play Saturday for TCU (2-2) against Colorado State or Oct. 6 at Wyoming. Patterson said his status will be re-evaluated after those games.

Blake, a two-time All-Mountain West Conference selection who came into the season as a top NFL prospect, has 11 tackles and a sack in his three games. He was the MWC leader with seven sacks and 16½ tackles for losses last season.

After missing the season-opening 27-0 victory over Baylor, Blake started against Texas and Air Force before coming off the bench Saturday against SMU. He missed practice Thursday.

Copyright 2007 by The Associated Press
 
I don't like the buying of +16.5 to +17 as I think that's irrelevant over 95% of the time...but of course last time I said that to someone it was on Maryland +17 - make sure to check out the final on that one.

Regardless, I'm with you on this one, let's hope they just win SU and having the hook won't even matter...
 
linde, I realize that it is not mathematically correct (it is only the smart thing to do on 3 and 7, right?), but it was just a gut feel thing that I have to eventually learn to ignore.
 
Buffalo (+17) @ Ball St.

Credit goes to lindetrain for pointing me towards this play.

I am not going to lie, this is not a glamorous game to bet on, and some of the reasoning is based on Ball St's current situation. As linde said, how can they be mentally ready for this after blowing the game at Nebraska? They blew a 9-point 4th quarter lead (with the ball with under 9 minutes remaining), Dante Love dropped a ball that was right on the numbers that would have all but secured the win, and they missed a 55-yarder for the win.

Ball St. comes off three straight road games, and they must be mentally and physically worn down. They started the road trip off well, beating both EMU and Navy, but then they gave away that golden opportunity @ Nebraska (they are now 0-24 against BCS teams). I would also argue that they are in a bit of a lookahead spot as Central Michigan awaits them. CMU was projected to be atop the MAC and Ball St. is in a revenge spot there (CMU was also the only team to hold Ball St. under 20 points last season, beating them 18-7).

I am not going to spend time trying to spin the stats to try to show that Buffalo can shut Ball St's offense down, because if Ball St's offense is clicking, it could be a long day.

Thing is though, Ball St's offense often covers up their horrendous defense. It is absolutely terrible, especially recently. Navy ran for 521 yards on them - 8 yards per carry. Nebraska's Sam Keller threw for 438 yards - 11.8 yards per attempt.

Personally, I like the way that Buffalo has played thus far. Yes, they were beat up by Rutgers, but they have followed that up with a win over Temple along with respectable showings against Penn St. and Baylor. Though they lost to Baylor 34-21, that was a bit of a deceptive final. Five turnovers, two missed FGs, and 10 penalties for 81 yards ultimately doomed their chances. They actually shut down the passing game, as Baylor's Blake Szymanski was held to 172 passing and only 3.8 yards per attempt.

Another reason for this play is the quality play of QB Drew Willy. Until his 3 INT against Baylor, he had been damn near perfect on the season. He still sports a 69.1% completion percentage, 4 TDs, 5 INT, and 961 yards (about 240 yards per game). Some of this has come against Rutgers and Penn St as well (albeit in garbage time).

I also do not put much stock into home field in this game. Ball St. drew only about 15,000 fans per game last season, and I believe that a low-tier D-I squad like Buffalo actually becomes quite comfortable away from home. Buffalo was 5-2 ATS on the road last season, and they are 2-1 ATS on the road this season, including the thrashing of Temple.

If Ball St plays to potential, this cover could be in trouble. However, I find it very hard to assume that they will be ready for this game. That near-miss at Nebraska will haunt them for awhile. I also think that Buffalo's offense has developed enough that they challenge Ball St's sub-par defense.

Ball St. 34
Buffalo 28
 
Great information and thanks for the bronco information, dmoney. gl this week, especially with akron .hehehehe i am so greedy.
 
Thanks VK - sorry I couldn't give you more, but IU see any defensive strengths for Toledo and I feel that WMU has the advantage in most areas.

Mauk penciled to start at QB
Coach suggests he rest shoulder
BY BILL KOCH | BKOCH@ENQUIRER.COM

bilde

The University of Cincinnati's Ben Mauk replaced starter Dustin Grutza during their game against Marshall at Nippert Saturday September 22, 2007.

Most college football teams use Tuesday as the first day of practice in preparation for their game Saturday.

They do that at the University of Cincinnati, too. But for the Bearcats, Tuesday also is the day that head coach Brian Kelly begins to monitor whether his starting quarterback, Ben Mauk, will be able to play that week, or if Dustin Grutza will have to run the offense.

For what it's worth, Mauk said he felt fine after practice and is expected to start against San Diego State after not starting the last two weeks because of soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder.

Kelly thought he had an idea that would help sort things out when he went to Mauk on Monday and suggested that it would be wise if he sat out the San Diego State game to give his shoulder more time to strengthen.

Mauk said there was no need for that. His shoulder was OK.

"I sat out last year," Mauk said. "I'm not trying to sit out anymore games. I want to play. I'm at that point in my career where I don't have time to sit out and wait. I don't want to see my offensive linemen seeing me sit out."

"I don't want to see my receivers see me sitting out," Mauk added. "I'm going to try to be out there as much as I can."

And on and on it goes.

If the UC quarterback situation seems like a jumbled mess from the outside, Kelly has taken it in stride.

"It's something that we're going to have to be prepared to do because I don't know if we're ever going to have an ideal situation there with one guy prepared as the No. 1 guy each and every week," Kelly said. "I think we're going to have to continue to go down this road."

So far, that road has led to a 4-0 start and a No. 24 ranking, largely because of Grutza's resilience.

In each of the last two weeks, Grutza was told just before game time that he would start in place of Mauk. In both cases, he handled the offense as if he had prepared to be the starter all week, which, to some extent, he had.

"It's hard to go in and out of a game and not get in sync," Grutza said. "But you've just got to stay ready as much as you can and when you get the call, you go in there and make some plays.

"When they take me out, I don't put my head down or anything. I just think the next time I'm in there I've got to go."

Grutza completed 14 of 20 passes for 142 yards and two touchdowns vs. Marshall. He gave way to Mauk with 7:54 left in the first half and UC leading 19-2.

But when Mauk couldn't execute a throw later in the game, Grutza returned.

"I wouldn't have taken Ben out unless he had to come out," Kelly said. "He turned down a throw on third down and one that he couldn't make. He didn't feel confident driving the ball into a tight window. We pulled him based upon what his feedback was to me."

The situation is so fluid that it changes sometimes by the minute. For now, Mauk is scheduled to start against San Diego State.

By Saturday, who knows?

There are side benefits to this odd arrangement, though.

"You could see it on film," Kelly said. "Ben threw a touchdown pass to Marcus Barnett where he looked off the safety and was able to fit into the seam. Dustin Grutza had missed that opportunity earlier. When he saw Ben do it, he came back later in the game, did the same thing and hit Connor Barwin in the seam. He fed off the success of Ben. So I've got a pretty good situation with both of those guys, and I'll just keep managing it as such."

Kelly is adamant about one thing: He has no plans to simply hand the job to Grutza because of the uncertainty created by Mauk's iffy shoulder.

"If Ben Mauk is able to help us win, if it's for a quarter or two quarters, we're going to play him, and I'll make it work," Kelly said.
 
Thanks RSMS - GL this week.

Via a Ball St. blog....

Ball State Player Injured


Ball State running back MiQuale Lewis, who injured his knee late in the Cardinals' loss at Nebraska, will be out indefinitely.


The sophomore from Fort Wayne had a career-high 167 yards rushing at Navy a week earlier and had 122 yards before he was hurt in the fourth quarter of Saturday's 41-40 loss to the No. 25 Huskers.

The extent of the injury wasn't immediately known, although coach Brady Hoke said Monday it could keep Lewis out the rest of the season.

"They have to still do an MRI so I don't want to be too specific because I really don't know what the status of his injury is at this time," Hoke said.
 
Added:

Middled Rutgers -13 with Maryland +18

Also, trying an ML experiment: Temple +220, Colorado St. +370, and Akron +550 for .25 units each.


Still looking at Central Mich and North Texas as possible last second additions.
 
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