Week 5 plays, leans, and Cincy/Akron

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Week 1: 3-5, -2.75u
Week 2: 3-5, -0.87u
Week 3: 7-2-1, +6.15u
Week 4: 3-6, -3.35u
Straight plays: 16-17-1, -0.62u
Sides: 6-12, -9.2u
Game Totals: 10-2-1, +12.03u
Team Totals: 0-3, -3.45u
MLs: 0-1, -0.2u
Total: 16-18-1, -0.82u

Maybe I should stick to just totals?

Season plays:

Cincinnati OVER 6.5 Wins (+115) (10u to win 11.5): 2-1
Last Week: W 45-20 vs. Miami OH
Next: at Akron

Purdue UNDER 7 Wins (-140) (1.4u to win 1): 2-1
Last Week: W 32-25 vs. Central Michigan
Next: at Notre Dame

Week 5 plays:

Kent St. +18 (2.75u to win 2.5)
New Mexico/New Mexico St. Over 51.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan St./Indiana Over 49 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon/Washington St. Under 61 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Cincinnati -9.5 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Cincinnati/Akron Under 60 (1.1u to win 1)
Northwestern/Iowa Over 41 (1.1u to win 1)
Bowling Green -3 (1.1u to win 1)
Western Michigan -3 (-120) (1.2u to win 1)
Kent St. ML +850 (0.4u to win 3.4)

Week 5 leans: (Bolded leans are stronger leans)

SMU +17
West Virginia -15.5
Syracuse +15.5 - need at least 17.
Iowa -7.5
Eastern Michigan +6.5
South Florida -8.5
Colorado +6
Western Kentucky +21.5
Florida International +19 - Almost certain play.
North Texas +18.5

Huge fan of this card - favorite of the year so far. Most of the leans consist of teams in the unfimiliar role of large favorite.

Write-ups and such coming soon.

BOL to all this week. :cheers:
 
Last edited:
RJ, looks like we are thinking on the same wavelength this week as we share several plays. That's always good to see - GL this week.

Added:

New Mexico/New Mexico St. Over 51.5 (2.2u to win 2)
Michigan St./Indiana Over 49 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Oregon/Washington St. Under 61 (1.65u to win 1.5)
Cincinnati/Akron Under 60 (1.1u to win 1)
Northwestern/Iowa Over 41 (1.1u to win 1)<!-- / message -->
 
BOL DM, tailing you and a couple others on that MSU/Indiana total....

NM/NM State I agree with too, last 3 meetings have combined for 59+ points...

Holbrook should have a lot of success against a very weak secondary for NM....
 
Cincinnati -9.5 at Akron, Under 60

Well, I made this line -14, and I have a tough time envisioning a way that they made this lower than the 11 that Cincy gave to Miami OH last week.

In my opinion, there were two reasons why that line was 11 and not 14:

1. Cincy's pseudo-rivalry with Miami-OH.
2. The uncertainty about Tony Pike.

Pike, to a certain extent, has answered those questions. While one game doesn't prove much, his 20-24 effort demonstrates that he is at least capable of leading this offense. Cincy didn't punt once in the Miami OH game. And, if he can do it to Miami OH, why not Akron? Cincy beat Akron 20-14 two years back when most of their current players were sophomores.

Akron was picked last in the MAC by some publications coming into the year. They have proven to be a little better than that (particularly on offense), what have they really done to this point? They have beaten Army and Syracuse while losing convincingly to both Ball St. and Wisconsin. I'd still rate Miami OH 3-4 points better than Akron on a neutral field.

They could have easily lost to Wisconsin by 35 as they scored a garbage TD in the last minute of the game. They also benefitted from a PJ Hill fumble inside the five and an Evridge pick in the end zone (returned back to the Wisky 35 and set up a FG).

The Army game is nothing to brag about either. In fact, they had only 18 first downs and were only 1-9 on 3rd down. Five turnovers along with the fact that Army is content to run up the middle for 2 yards 80% of the time also helps.

As VK mentioned his thread, Kelly knows the MAC and will be familiar with the Akron game plan.

Akron won't be able to run all that much, as Cincy has contained their opponent's running games to this point. You can beat this team by throwing short passes and sustaining drives, and that is what Akron will have to do.

Cincy should be able to move the ball efficiently, and they do have the punting advantage with Huber. It was encouraging to see Rogers make all of his kicks last week as well.


As for the under, it is a bit scary as both teams run the spread offense. However, Cincy showed last week against Miami OH that they are willing to be more balanced in order to get Pike into the comfort zone. They ran 31 times to 24 throws last week. Many of these runs were late in the game, but they were relatively balanced throughout, and if they are up 3 scores in the 4th quarter again, they will probably take the air out of the ball once more.

When Akron's on offense, they will likely be focusing on passes within 10 yards of scrimmage. Look at Miami's scoring drives last week:

17 plays, 75 yards (8:40): 19-yard FG
10 plays, 71 yards (4:56): 10 yard TD pass (this drive was aided by 35 Cincy penalty yards: back-to-back interference calls and a sideline infraction)
9 plays, 48 yards (1:14): 42-yard FG (two minute drill at the end of the half)
9 plays, 79 yards (4:45): 34-yard TD pass

Maimi OH's only true condensed drive of the night was early in the 2nd half on the 34 yard TD pass to Givens. If they didn't string together a bunch of first downs, they either turned it over or punted.

Lastly, Kelly was unhappy with the defensive effort last week, so we'll see if they come out stronger this week.

Akron only drew 9,000 to the Rubber Bowl for Ball St., so I don't anticipate a raucous crowd for this one. Cincy is just under four hours away from Akron, so a split crowd is not out of the question here.

Cincinnati 35
Akron 17
 
UC football notebook
Win good, but 'D' upsets Kelly; New QB Pike not problem for 'Cats
By Bill Koch • bkoch@enquirer.com • September 22, 2008

bilde


In the aftermath of the University of Cincinnati's 45-20 victory over Miami on Saturday night, UC coach Brian Kelly said he wasn't surprised that in his first start Tony Pike reached the "high standards" that he has for his quarterbacks.

He couldn't say the same for his defense.

The numbers weren't that bad. Miami gained 301 yards and scored two touchdowns while managing only 66 rushing yards. But quarterback Daniel Raudabaugh passed for 235 yards and was sacked only once.

It was that lack of pressure on the quarterback and some costly penalties that had Kelly bemoaning the state of the UC defense after three games.

Remember, this is a UC defense loaded with seniors, a defense that led the nation in interceptions last year and was expected to be a pillar of strength this season.

So far it hasn't happened.

"I wasn't that pleased with our play in the first half," Kelly said. "We couldn't get off the field in certain situations. The penalties drove me crazy. We had a little chat about that at halftime and in the second half we were penalty free."

The Bearcats (2-1) were called for six penalties for 70 yards in the first half, including two consecutive pass interference penalties against Brandon Underwood and Mike Mickens that led directly to the RedHawks' first touchdown and two personal fouls.

Kelly has good reason to be concerned about the lack of pressure the UC defense is getting on opposing quarterbacks. The Bearcats recorded only one sack against Miami a week after failing to get to Oklahoma quarterback Sam Bradford.

"It's a concern of mine," Kelly said. "We're not getting the kind of push that we need and we've got to keep searching for it because we've got to play the guys we've got. Certainly that's an area we've got to continue to work on. We're going to keep searching until we find the right sets and the right looks to get that pressure."

Pike, meanwhile, impressed Kelly not just with his efficient statistical line (20 of 24 for 241 yards and three touchdowns) but with his ability to function when the RedHawks pressured him.

"I liked his escapability," Kelly said, "staying with the play. On the last touchdown they brought inside pressures. He didn't do a very good job picking it up but he sidestepped one guy. He's 6-6, 235 pounds. He's a tough guy to bring down. He stayed with the play and kept his eyes downfield. That's a great quality to have."

The Bearcats, who have outscored Miami by an average score of 39-13 in their last three meetings - all UC wins - will travel to Akron (2-2) on Saturday with an offense that seems to be in capable hands with Pike at the controls.

"I feel good about what we're doing offensively," Kelly said. "We're not there defensively. We've got to keep improving in every area.

"But to know that you lost your starting quarterback and your number two comes in and goes 20 for 24 for 241 and three touchdowns, in his first real start, I feel pretty good about that."
 
GL Cap - The MSU total just strikes me as low. I'm not concerned about MSU's past two low scoring games. One was due to Notre Dame's style (and that total was 47/48 - how can you place this at 49?) and the other was due to the pouring rain that came down throughout the FAU game. Indiana playslittle defense and Lewis should be enough of a dual threat to put some points up.

Check out JPicks' thread for great info on NM/NMSU. NM's best CB is out, and the injury to Porterie may not be a bad thing for the total. Gruner has been an interception machine so far (short field for NMSU), and he apparently like to throw downfield.

VK - agreed, but we could conceivably still win that bet even with a Purdue victory here. Hopefully they live up to their road woes of the past (I'm rooting for this team to go 6-6 and make a bowl in Tiller's last season). Hopefully the Tiller/under middle that I'm looking for eventually hits.
 
Dmoney, when you get time, get me off NW. I just don't like Iowa and don't think their is the conducive to covering spreads over a TD against a team not much worse then them.
 
gl dmoney...like most of your card here, and cinci/under combo looks solid...question: if you HAD to choose one su winner out of fiu, kent, and north texas, who would you choose as being the most likely to be able to win su? just curious because i'm considering moneylines in all 3 affairs and hopin to grab a little luck with a big one, and i see you like all 3...
 
broadwayjoe said:
gl dmoney...like most of your card here, and cinci/under combo looks solid...question: if you HAD to choose one su winner out of fiu, kent, and north texas, who would you choose as being the most likely to be able to win su? just curious because i'm considering moneylines in all 3 affairs and hopin to grab a little luck with a big one, and i see you like all 3...
Click to expand...

It would probably go:

1. Kent +750: This is still the MAC - anything can happen. If this is week 1, what is this line? 7? I know Kent has not lived up to pre-season expectations, but, being a MAC member, those games are esentially meaningless if they win Saturday to start the MAC schedule. If Jarvis is back there, they will run on Ball St. and should be able to eat up clock.

Again, the loss of Love is pretty big. Ball St. still has weapons, but they lose a special teams threat, and a guy that had 440 of Davis 1100 or so passing yards. The playbook shrinks with Love out - they would line him up on the outside, in the slot, at RB. If KSU plays a even average defense, they have a shot.

2. Florida International +700: Toledo has looked solid, but this situation sucks for them. How do they get up for this game. Draining game against Fresno St. last week, not they play a nameless Sun-Belt team before hosting Ball St. in a huge game for them. FIU can't score much, but Toledo still can't stop anybody. FIU is also battle tested: @Kansas, @Iowa, USF. FIU also played solid run defense (Toledo's offensive strength) in two of their three game against the big boys.

If FIU finds a way to win the turnover battle, why can't they win? This game is borderline meaningless for Toledo. For MAC teams, you basically care about conference games or games against big-time opponents that could get you noticed. This is neither.

3. North Texas +650: Wouldn't blame someone for taking UNT here, but I won't be. They may not stop Rice at all. UNT will need 3-4 turnovers to win here I think.

There is a good chance that I'll be on the first two though.
 
Appreciate it pags and Aztec - BOL this week and glad that we agree on some of these sides.

ETG - I'll get my thoughts up on that tilt later today.
 
Wow , what an awesome thread.

Can't remember a weekend where I will be cheering for you to win as much as this week. hehe. Like a lot of the same stuff.

On cincy , kent st , western mich and the michst/indy total with you.

I agree with the under 60 in the cincy game , in that i believe a lot of the line value for the cincy side is based too much love for the improved akron offense but avoided it because i don't like the correlation of large favorite to the under , especially on the road. Also have some concern about this game having a lot more plays than the average game this year due to pass attempts and incompletions. Obviously the more plays the better for the favorite but it will hurt the total. Still think it is the right side and i amde the game lower too but i don't have th cajones.

I know you have a good read on eastern michigan and i also know you were very high on northern illinois as being very improved this year during the offseason discussions. Wondering how you see that panning out as i think emu has a solid chance to win there. Help.

obviously i think your card looks awesome ..lol.
 
Pretty confident this week VK - GL.

BOL to you as well nawlins.

Added:

Kent St. ML +850 (0.4u to win 3.4)

Florida International and ML likely coming. Trying to anticipate to see if I can get +21 or not.
 
vegaskyle said:
Wow , what an awesome thread.

Can't remember a weekend where I will be cheering for you to win as much as this week. hehe. Like a lot of the same stuff.

On cincy , kent st , western mich and the michst/indy total with you.

I agree with the under 60 in the cincy game , in that i believe a lot of the line value for the cincy side is based too much love for the improved akron offense but avoided it because i don't like the correlation of large favorite to the under , especially on the road. Also have some concern about this game having a lot more plays than the average game this year due to pass attempts and incompletions. Obviously the more plays the better for the favorite but it will hurt the total. Still think it is the right side and i amde the game lower too but i don't have th cajones.

I know you have a good read on eastern michigan and i also know you were very high on northern illinois as being very improved this year during the offseason discussions. Wondering how you see that panning out as i think emu has a solid chance to win there. Help.

obviously i think your card looks awesome ..lol.
Click to expand...

I fancy myself an EMU expert, but I'm really not (See: last week's game). NIU has no business being a TD road favorite here. EMU better get their stuff together on D though - 51 to Maryland?

EMU or nothing I'd say. I'd need +7 to pop up again to consider it though, and probably would need +7.5 to actually play it.
 
E.T.G. said:
Dmoney, when you get time, get me off NW. I just don't like Iowa and don't think their is the conducive to covering spreads over a TD against a team not much worse then them.
Click to expand...

Sorry for the late reply etg.

I agree that NW is awfully tempting here, particularly given that you are getting the better offense +9. However, I see this game as a physically tough Iowa team going against a more finesse NW squad.

First, this NW team stinks on the road. Besides the miracle Michigan St. game last year when Bacher threw for 520, they were blown away in every road contest.

@Ohio St. (+23): L 7-58
@Purdue (+13.5): L 17-35
@Illinois (+13.5): L 22-41

They also really should have lost to Duke in their only road game thus far this year.

Second, this team ususally falters once they have to face stiffer competition. They do thrive in the moderate-big home dog role once in a while, but on the road, they are a joke more often than not. This team allowed at least 28 points in every conference game last year. That is an amazing stat. Obviously with the clock rules and such, they won't replicate that, but it demonstrates how they react in difficult situations.

Lastly, I don't care much for Bacher. In my opinion, he racks up big numbers against the bad opponents and then falters when it counts.

Last year:

vs. Northeastern: 23-29, 243 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT
vs. Nevada: 20-45, 227 yards, 3 TD, 0 INT
@Mich St.: 38-48, 520 yards, 5 TD, 0 INT
vs. Minnesota: 41-58, 470 yards, 4 TD, 0 INT

There is 13 of his 19 TD passes last year. Mich St. is the only team there that you could argue even had a decent passing D last year.

On the flip side:

@Ohio St.: 17-32, 120 yards (3.75 ypa), 0 TD, 2 INT
vs. Michigan: 22-42, 289 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT
@Purdue: 20-39, 208 yards, 1 TD, 3 INT
vs. Iowa: 27-54, 264 yards (4.89 ypa), 1 TD, 3 INT
@Illinois: 29-49, 310 yards, 2 TD, 2 INT

The guy can really be an interception machine if he is pressured. Granted, if Sutton is consistently back there to help the running game, then you would probably see a slight improvement on these numbers. Still, he definitely struggles against tougher defenses and Iowa qualifies in this instance.

His road/tough D struggles seem to be continuing this year as well, as he has excelled against Syracuse and Southern Illinois while struggling against Ohio and @Duke.

I'm thinking 31-17 Iowa here.
 
Thanks J - BOL this week.

I wake up this morning to see that Bob has taken Ball St. and Penn St.? What is going on here? Can someone explain this Ball St. line to me?

In all seriousness, I have never been so baffled by a line in my entire life. +1000 for Kent St. to win against another MAC opponent minus their best player? Seriously? This is essentially the same team that didn't lose one conference game by more than 11 last year. And outside of the Iowa St. game LY, they also performed poorly in the OOC: losing 56-20 to Kentucky and 48-3 to Ohio St.
 
I'm getting Kent St at +1500. You really should check into Matchbook for your Moneylines bro.

I'm hitting it in your honor. :shake: Let's do it.
 
RambleOn said:
I'm getting Kent St at +1500. You really should check into Matchbook for your Moneylines bro.

I'm hitting it in your honor. :shake: Let's do it.
Click to expand...

I got +850 earlier in the week when that was one of the better numbers available. But yes, I should get on there as well.

GL today Ramble.
 
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