Week 5 ncaa props discussion/plays

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
Week 5 already, time flies when we having fun and the only thing fun is winning, so far we been having a blast!!! Lol. Let’s try to keep the good times rolling..

The ones I played tonight are little smaller, not cause they bad plays just not as strong as some others we hopefully find on Saturday!!


Ville/ncst

Concepcion ov 61.5 rec yards

Ive talked bout this game quite a bit so I’ll keep this short, I strongly believe the way to beat ville d is thru the air and far as I can tell this kid is the Wolfpack lead wr.

Armstrong un 50.5 rush yards

I never play unders so proceed w cation, I have no clue how the heck this gonna work out! All I know is we got to play Armstrong rush yards over 31.5 last week against imo a much worst Uva run d!! My concern here is all the new coaches for ville, I know they have the athletes in the front 7 to limit Armstrong’s legs. The last 2 years ville faced him playing for Uva they held him to negative rush yards! While I don’t expect that kind of performance ville d has been better against the run than the pass, it be nice if ville was generating more pressure (ex, sacks!) but even without sacks I don’t expect Armstrong to run more than 10x and think ville can hold him under 5ypc!!
 
Cincy/byu

Slovis ov 227.5 pass yards

I said it before Gabriel and Sooners took cincy apart last week and I’ll say it again here. While I like the cincy front 7, they have lot of holdovers from previous regime who be playing on Sundays, I’m not so impressed w the secondary that lost a lot of talent! Bottom line, if you can protect your qb he will find receivers open against this secondary! Despite not exactly playing a murders row of passing offense the bearcats are allowing 8.2 yards per pass! I don’t expect cougs have much of any success on the ground and think they will be quick to abandon run plays and turn Slovis looose.
 
Utah/Oregon st

Fenwick ov 36.5 rush

Ok now this one is a bit a dart tho, honestly I didn’t plan on playing any props in this game cause I’m pretty invested in Oregon st and just doesn’t strike me as a greet prop game being playing w 2 excellent defenses. That said they got me cause when I saw this number i couldn’t resist. Bottom line we know Fenwick will get 10 or so chances, we know he can take it the distance from anywhere! There is def a chance the utes bottle up everyone involved w the beavers run game, but there also a chance his big nasty oline gives him one sliver of daylight and he hits his head on the goalpost! It only takes one and I think it worth a shot.,
 
2daBank said:
Week 5 already, time flies when we having fun and the only thing fun is winning, so far we been having a blast!!! Lol. Let’s try to keep the good times rolling..

The ones I played tonight are little smaller, not cause they bad plays just not as strong as some others we hopefully find on Saturday!!


Ville/ncst

Concepcion ov 61.5 rec yards

Ive talked bout this game quite a bit so I’ll keep this short, I strongly believe the way to beat ville d is thru the air and far as I can tell this kid is the Wolfpack lead wr.

Armstrong un 50.5 rush yards

I never play unders so proceed w cation, I have no clue how the heck this gonna work out! All I know is we got to play Armstrong rush yards over 31.5 last week against imo a much worst Uva run d!! My concern here is all the new coaches for ville, I know they have the athletes in the front 7 to limit Armstrong’s legs. The last 2 years ville faced him playing for Uva they held him to negative rush yards! While I don’t expect that kind of performance ville d has been better against the run than the pass, it be nice if ville was generating more pressure (ex, sacks!) but even without sacks I don’t expect Armstrong to run more than 10x and think ville can hold him under 5ypc!!
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Good Luck, I am on Concepcion too. Still thinking about the Armstrong under. :cheers3:
 
He Hate Me said:
Good Luck, I am on Concepcion too. Still thinking about the Armstrong under. :cheers3:
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Might be the 1st prop under I played! Def the 1st ncaa prop under! The few I’ve tried in other sports didn’t go well but I mean there been so few and it got me to bail on them so quickly it was more a case of wrong side of variance and never making enough under plays to really determine if I suck at them or not! Lol.

I just couldn’t help myself here, despite not loving the fact I don’t know a lot bout ville d under the new coaches I still think the front 7 is vastly more talented than Uva and we played over 31.5 w Armstrong last week! That makes no freaking sense! How can he be damn near 20 yards higher than last week when he faced a really bad d?? I wish ville had better track record of getting sacks but all they have to do is pop in game film the last 2 years against Armstrong:Uva and the last 2 against cuse and they should see the blueprint on how to stop this! My money says anyone who can get a dc job can figure this out! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Week 5 already, time flies when we having fun and the only thing fun is winning, so far we been having a blast!!! Lol. Let’s try to keep the good times rolling..

The ones I played tonight are little smaller, not cause they bad plays just not as strong as some others we hopefully find on Saturday!!


Ville/ncst

Concepcion ov 61.5 rec yards

Ive talked bout this game quite a bit so I’ll keep this short, I strongly believe the way to beat ville d is thru the air and far as I can tell this kid is the Wolfpack lead wr.

Armstrong un 50.5 rush yards

I never play unders so proceed w cation, I have no clue how the heck this gonna work out! All I know is we got to play Armstrong rush yards over 31.5 last week against imo a much worst Uva run d!! My concern here is all the new coaches for ville, I know they have the athletes in the front 7 to limit Armstrong’s legs. The last 2 years ville faced him playing for Uva they held him to negative rush yards! While I don’t expect that kind of performance ville d has been better against the run than the pass, it be nice if ville was generating more pressure (ex, sacks!) but even without sacks I don’t expect Armstrong to run more than 10x and think ville can hold him under 5ypc!!
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I have the game on in the background with no audio so this may be obvious to anyone listening to it but I don't think Concepcion has been back in the game since the first pass attempt on the first drive where he kinda stretched to try to reach the ball and then grabbed his thigh.
 
He Hate Me said:
I have the game on in the background with no audio so this may be obvious to anyone listening to it but I don't think Concepcion has been back in the game since the first pass attempt on the first drive where he kinda stretched to try to reach the ball and then grabbed his thigh.
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I saw him one or 2 times but he clearly wasn’t right then he hurt himself again. Leave it to that awful head coach to have the game plan be Armstrong run up the middle 20x for 3 ypc!! Not a very good start to weekend, I hit the ville/ncst under and beavers ats but missed every one these damn props. I fell asleep kinda early, I woke up and saw the byu score and thought for sure Slovis woulda went over, but nope.
 
So every week I’ve tried to find a running back to pick on the Buffs run d. Last week iving barely got over his number cause like always w ducks they gave 3 backs a handful of touches, Irving got 89 yrds on just 10 carry’s, the other 2 got another 15 carry’s for 99 yards. Combined ducks 3 main rbs had 25 carry’s for 188 yards, a whopping 7.52 per carry! Enter usc Marshawn Lloyd who is averaging over 10 ypc!

The problem is much like the ducks usc tends to spread the carry’s around as last week was the 1st time Lloyd got dd carry’s this season, he showed out going for 154 on 14 carry’s! Did usc come to the conclusion this is the guy? Caleb Williams was the only other Trojan credited w more than 3 carry’s so signs point to Lloyd being the guy in usc backfield. Buffs are 114th in the country allowing 5.3 ypc and over 200 rush yards per game!

So there 2 main concerns here, 1) can we trust Lloyd to get a large portion the carry’s, I think we can. 2) and this one bothers me, is it possible usc gets caught up in the hype of this game of Williams v sanders and forgets about the run game? This could happen but I think Lincoln Riley is smart enough to see running the ball is the best way to neutralize the buffs offense and take the juice out the stadium! Plus if usc gets out to a lead it only makes sense they lean on the undersized, undermanned Buffs squad! If Lloyd gets 15 carry’s you better believe he is going for 100+!!
 
2daBank said:
So every week I’ve tried to find a running back to pick on the Buffs run d. Last week iving barely got over his number cause like always w ducks they gave 3 backs a handful of touches, Irving got 89 yrds on just 10 carry’s, the other 2 got another 15 carry’s for 99 yards. Combined ducks 3 main rbs had 25 carry’s for 188 yards, a whopping 7.52 per carry! Enter usc Marshawn Lloyd who is averaging over 10 ypc!

The problem is much like the ducks usc tends to spread the carry’s around as last week was the 1st time Lloyd got dd carry’s this season, he showed out going for 154 on 14 carry’s! Did usc come to the conclusion this is the guy? Caleb Williams was the only other Trojan credited w more than 3 carry’s so signs point to Lloyd being the guy in usc backfield. Buffs are 114th in the country allowing 5.3 ypc and over 200 rush yards per game!

So there 2 main concerns here, 1) can we trust Lloyd to get a large portion the carry’s, I think we can. 2) and this one bothers me, is it possible usc gets caught up in the hype of this game of Williams v sanders and forgets about the run game? This could happen but I think Lincoln Riley is smart enough to see running the ball is the best way to neutralize the buffs offense and take the juice out the stadium! Plus if usc gets out to a lead it only makes sense they lean on the undersized, undermanned Buffs squad! If Lloyd gets 15 carry’s you better believe he is going for 100+!!
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Remember the start time is very unusual, 10am local in Boulder and 9am for USC, wonder how many of the stoners will be able to muster up the juice to properly tailgate and how many will either pass out or still be passed out. Not sure how it affects the game play really but neither team is accustomed to that kind of start time at all.
 
I’ve talked a lot bout clemson/cuse in other threads so don’t wanna repeat myself to much. I simply do not buy this cuse offense or Shrader being able to move the ball on the tigers d. The minute I saw this total I was thinking “cuse team total really gonna be 23?”, well we didn’t quite get that as I see cuse 22.5 which ain’t exactly a meaningful number, i told myself anything above 20 felt to high, I just don’t think cuse has enough talent on the outside to threaten clemson d vertically, if they can’t stretch the field and clemson Uber talented d can fly downhill I don’t think Shrader runner or the rpo quick passing game is gonna work. Even if cuse hits a deep ball I don’t think they can continually drive the field for enough points to get over this number. Cuss d rates very good and they been the best red zone d in the country albeit vs questionable competition, tigers have struggled punching the ball in, There certainly a case for the game undsr opposed to the cuse team total. Where I’m struggling Is with cuse run d, is it really this good or is it once again a product of a cup cake schedule? Shipley ov 72.5 rush yards def has my eye.
 
KJ said:
Remember the start time is very unusual, 10am local in Boulder and 9am for USC, wonder how many of the stoners will be able to muster up the juice to properly tailgate and how many will either pass out or still be passed out. Not sure how it affects the game play really but neither team is accustomed to that kind of start time at all.
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Yes im with ya. Biggest reason I’m not looking to jump on the over with rest the world. I’ve never liked these super high totals in early start games, this being one the most unusual early starts of them all def has me a bit skittish. Thanks for bringing up, I knew it was early but that little tidbit had kinda escaped me as I’ve started zoning in on the ganes.
 
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2daBank said:
I’ve talked a lot bout clemson/cuse in other threads so don’t wanna repeat myself to much. I simply do not buy this cuse offense or Shrader being able to move the ball on the tigers d. The minute I saw this total I was thinking “cuse team total really gonna be 23?”, well we didn’t quite get that as I see cuse 22.5 which ain’t exactly a meaningful number, i told myself anything above 20 felt to high, I just don’t think cuse has enough talent on the outside to threaten clemson d vertically, if they can’t stretch the field and clemson Uber talented d can fly downhill I don’t think Shrader runner or the rpo quick passing game is gonna work. Even if cuse hits a deep ball I don’t think they can continually drive the field for enough points to get over this number. Cuss d rates very good and they been the best red zone d in the country albeit vs questionable competition, tigers have struggled punching the ball in, There certainly a case for the game undsr opposed to the cuse team total. Where I’m struggling Is with cuse run d, is it really this good or is it once again a product of a cup cake schedule? Shipley ov 72.5 rush yards def has my eye.
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As of yet no Shipley rec yards prop which been a prop I’ve liked several times this year!
 
KJ said:
Remember the start time is very unusual, 10am local in Boulder and 9am for USC, wonder how many of the stoners will be able to muster up the juice to properly tailgate and how many will either pass out or still be passed out. Not sure how it affects the game play really but neither team is accustomed to that kind of start time at all.
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When I was these kids age my ass was just calling it a night around this time! Lol. Im sure most of them more disciplined than myself! Lol
 
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I had another under wrote down but seems like I wasn’t the only one with that idea as uk running back rush total has dropped 5 yards since I capped it few days ago
 
2daBank said:
When I was these kids age my ass was just calling it a night around this time! Lol. Im sure most of them more disciplined than myself! Lol
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To know Boulder it's probably right there with Berkeley as far as campuses that are in that same boat although I'm not sure all the weed will have them up all night, just not up til tomorrow night
 
Patients gonna be the key this week, last week started w a bang with bunch of good plays/games, then another flurry of plays at night. This week I don’t see as much in the early games, 2:30 games a few more, but then a bunch of bangers at night! Gotta remember to pace myself and just let the day come to me!
 
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KJ said:
To know Boulder it's probably right there with Berkeley as far as campuses that are in that same boat although I'm not sure all the weed will have them up all night, just not up til tomorrow night
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Mfers gonna be walking on the field still stoned from tonight!
 
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How real is uk defense? I hate these teams who 4 weeks in we don’t have any good data points cause they have played a dog shit schedule! I just don’t know if Uk is anywhere as good their rankings suggest? They didn’t exactly destroy vsndy, after jumping out 21-0 the game played pretty even. It tough to take much from that either cause maybe uk took foot off the gas? When candy the only power 5 you have played I just dunno what to make of you!! The sad thing is they had to play vansy, if it was up to them my guess they would have played cup cake culinary college!!
 
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2daBank said:
How real is uk defense? I hate these teams who 4 weeks in we don’t have any good data points cause they have played a dog shit schedule! I just don’t know if Uk is anywhere as good their rankings suggest? They didn’t exactly destroy vsndy, after jumping out 21-0 the game played pretty even. It tough to take much from that either cause maybe uk took foot off the gas? When candy the only power 5 you have played I just dunno what to make of you!! The sad thing is they had to play vansy, if it was up to them my guess they would have play cup cake culinary college!!
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I had uk running back under wrote down but has dropped 5 yards already, the one think I strongly believe about the gators is it gonna be very tough to run between the tackles on them, they rotate about 5 d-tackles that look like nfl players to me! I also have Etienne over rush yards wrote down, I think I prefer him to the smash mouth wright in this game.
 
Imo They came w very strong prop numbers for ND this week, Hartman passing yards damn near 250, they have Estime rush yards at 89.5! Even with Irish using 3 backs last week. To me that just screams Irish and think I’ll be so invested in them that I might stay away from the props, I’m not sure duke can stop this rushing attack? I know for them to have any chance they will have to sell out and that means Hartman beats them imo. Elcho is great at disguising looks and confusing qbs but Hartman been around for more than half a decade playing ncaa ball! You not gonna show him things he hasn’t seen or rattle him imo. I was really hoping to be on Estime props but with those other rbs lurking I didn’t expect to see such a high number.
 
I’d like to hear from my guy @He Hate Me on this one. Jefferson rush/pass totals. There no question Jefferson rush total of 36.5 feels short, I’d bet my left nut he has at least 50 rush yards here, the glaring problem here is A&M has the 3rd best sack rate in the country at 11% while ark 117th in the country getting sacked on 10.5% of dropbacks! I think we have to factor in at least -30 yards in sacks! Can Jefferson have a big enough day to overcome that? I think it possible but think we have to cap 75 rush yards to be able to make a play on his rushing prop!

On the other hand I strongly believe the Aggies stellar looking numbers against the pass are a product of facing awful passing teams! (Not so much the sacks, I think they have a pass rush plus as mentioned ark has not been good protecting Jefferson). It looks nice and pretty that AM only allows 53% completions and 6.7 per pass but let’s look at how they accumulated those numbers. Aggies have faced 2 power 5 teams and one of them was a Auburn offense my nephew high school team could stop! They didn’t allow 60 passing yards in that game! Let’s be real, I been bitching about this Aub offense for weeks, they are simply that bad so I can’t give Aggies much credit for this (there no way this offense scores over 14.5 on Uga btw!). Aggies held ULM to 95 pass yards, again I say more fugazi numbers! FinLly in week 1 they held the always scary New Mexico offense to 130 pass yards! Let’s just admit at the very least the jury still out after those games!

here where it gets interesting, when Aggies played Miami (the only legit passing game and power 5 they have played! I refuse to call auburn offense legit!). we easily cashed Miami, the over, and van Dyke pass props in that game. Now I don’t think KJ Jefferson is on Van Dyke level as a passer but they not asking him to be with this number which a good 50 yards short of where van Dyke was! 222.5 passing is not a big ask imo. If we believe Aggies can score points amd force Hogs to keep up I think he sails past this. So it really just comes down to game script for me. I have no doubt Jefferson can thru for 250+ in this game, the question is with a different qb starting can the Aggies offense force hogs to hang a decent sized number?
 
2daBank said:
I’d like to hear from my guy @He Hate Me on this one. Jefferson rush/pass totals. There no question Jefferson rush total of 36.5 feels short, I’d bet my left nut he has at least 50 rush yards here, the glaring problem here is A&M has the 3rd best sack rate in the country at 11% while ark 117th in the country getting sacked on 10.5% of dropbacks! I think we have to factor in at least -30 yards in sacks! Can Jefferson have a big enough day to overcome that? I think it possible but think we have to cap 75 rush yards to be able to make a play on his rushing prop!

On the other hand I strongly believe the Aggies stellar looking numbers against the pass are a product of facing awful passing teams! (Not so much the sacks, I think they have a pass rush plus as mentioned ark has not been good protecting Jefferson). It looks nice and pretty that AM only allows 53% completions and 6.7 per pass but let’s look at how they accumulated those numbers. Aggies have faced 2 power 5 teams and one of them was a Auburn offense my nephew high school team could stop! They didn’t allow 60 passing yards in that game! Let’s be real, I been bitching about this Aub offense for weeks, they are simply that bad so I can’t give Aggies much credit for this (there no way this offense scores over 14.5 on Uga btw!). Aggies held ULM to 95 pass yards, again I say more fugazi numbers! FinLly in week 1 they held the always scary New Mexico offense to 130 pass yards! Let’s just admit at the very least the jury still out after those games!

here where it gets interesting, when Aggies played Miami (the only legit passing game and power 5 they have played! I refuse to call auburn offense legit!). we easily cashed Miami, the over, and van Dyke pass props in that game. Now I don’t think KJ Jefferson is on Van Dyke level as a passer but they not asking him to be with this number which a good 50 yards short of where van Dyke was! 222.5 passing is not a big ask imo. If we believe Aggies can score points amd force Hogs to keep up I think he sails past this. So it really just comes down to game script for me. I have no doubt Jefferson can thru for 250+ in this game, the question is with a different qb starting can the Aggies offense force hogs to hang a decent sized number?
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I think the Jefferson rushing total is low. I think A&M's D is improved but their sack total is somewhat of a product of playing against drop-back pocket passers like Thorne and Van Dyke. Ashford had some success in limited action running the ball on A&M and he is not the same threat to throw the ball as Jefferson. Plus Jefferson killed them on the ground last year.
 
B.A.R. said:
Caleb o3.5 tuddies -113
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I have been back and forth on Caleb props. My initial feeling was to bet over the passing yard total because he will play the whole game since there will be a lot of eyes on it. He has basically played 3 quarters in each of the first 3 games and played the whole game the last one, against AZ St. Then I look at how easy it is to run against Col and think how can USC not plan to run the ball more. The TD total may be a safer play than the yards. Also, Caleb is -120 or so for a rushing TD
 
He Hate Me said:
I think the Jefferson rushing total is low. I think A&M's D is improved but their sack total is somewhat of a product of playing against drop-back pocket passers like Thorne and Van Dyke. Ashford had some success in limited action running the ball on A&M and he is not the same threat to throw the ball as Jefferson. Plus Jefferson killed them on the ground last year.
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So you prefer his rush prop to passing? Last time we did this w byu I had the passing and he came up short rushing. Im not as sold this week the passing better tho, that why I asked you (I knew this number would stand out to you, lol). . I tend to agree w that sacks to a extent and really the same thing applies to AM sacks as I was pointing out about the entire pass d, those numbers inflated by the fact they have only faced one competent passing team. I guess my concern is I assume AM has nfl type edge rushers and Jefferson has been sacked a lot., Jefferson def more talented than ashford but ashford not gonna take any sacks cause he almost never throws (thank god! Lol). I’m warming up more to the rush yards cause while I like the passing yards they kinda depend on a game script where Aggies arre scoring points, I’m not incredibly confident they do that! Lol
 
2daBank said:
So you prefer his rush prop to passing? Last time we did this w byu I had the passing and he came up short rushing. Im not as sold this week the passing better tho, that why I asked you (I knew this number would stand out to you, lol). . I tend to agree w that sacks to a extent and really the same thing applies to AM sacks as I was pointing out about the entire pass d, those numbers inflated by the fact they have only faced one competent passing team. I guess my concern is I assume AM has nfl type edge rushers and Jefferson has been sacked a lot., Jefferson def more talented than ashford but ashford not gonna take any sacks cause he almost never throws (thank god! Lol). I’m warming up more to the rush yards cause while I like the passing yards they kinda depend on a game script where Aggies arre scoring points, I’m not incredibly confident they do that! Lol
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Yeah, I lost the BYU rush prop. It is just tough to pass up 35 yards with Jefferson. I only played a 1/2 unit on Jefferson over 35.5 rush yards and no passing prop.
 
He Hate Me said:
Yeah, I lost the BYU rush prop. It is just tough to pass up 35 yards with Jefferson. I only played a 1/2 unit on Jefferson over 35.5 rush yards and no passing prop.
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I wasn’t like bringing it up to throw salt. It was just similar as in I preferred passing but I do think there more reason to like rushing here. Byu didn’t have the sack threat but they also knew that so stayed disciplined in their lanes, I can’t remember last time I accused Aggies of being disciplined. I do think he prob get sacked a few times but I think he runs for more than enough to overcome it today
 
2daBank said:
I wasn’t like bringing it up to throw salt. It was just similar as in I preferred passing but I do think there more reason to like rushing here. Byu didn’t have the sack threat but they also knew that so stayed disciplined in their lanes, I can’t remember last time I accused Aggies of being disciplined. I do think he prob get sacked a few times but I think he runs for more than enough to overcome it today
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No, I understood what you were saying and did not take it negatively, similar situation.

Jefferson had more than 35 yards rushing in every game last year except against BYU. He also only had 21 yards rushing against BYU this year. So it seems that BYU is scheming to stop that.
 
I thought I would be on some under props in the Clem/Syr game, but the only 1 I am still considering is the Schrader under passing yards.

For the noon games I have played:

KJ Jefferson over 35.5 yards Rushing. I have added more to this so it is a normal play for me.
Caleb Williams 1 anytime TD -121
 
He Hate Me said:
I have been back and forth on Caleb props. My initial feeling was to bet over the passing yard total because he will play the whole game since there will be a lot of eyes on it. He has basically played 3 quarters in each of the first 3 games and played the whole game the last one, against AZ St. Then I look at how easy it is to run against Col and think how can USC not plan to run the ball more. The TD total may be a safer play than the yards. Also, Caleb is -120 or so for a rushing TD
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Yes, that's the safest Caleb bet.

I like him to have 5-6 tuddies (including rushing).
 
And here come the big rushing tuddies for USC

Hopefully their piss poor defense gives up scores quickly today.
 
B.A.R. said:
And here come the big rushing tuddies for USC

Hopefully their piss poor defense gives up scores quickly today.
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I was happy for Lloyd yards but you got me torn w Caleb tds, lol., I was ok waiting for Lloyd. Surely Lincoln gonna get his guy 4 td passes
 
I also played these:
Jayden Daniels o57.5 yards rushing -115
Hammond (Pitt) o76.5 yards rushing
Jurkovec u186.5 yards passing -115
 
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