Week 5 NCAA Football

Marlo

Check out my DAD BOD
57-49 +18.2 units

USC -24. 1.1-1

This is a ton of road chalk, but this offense could easily cover this in the first half. See another 50-60 points being put up here.

LSU -24 3.3-3
Jarret Lee looked remarkable last week after his under killing interception he threw in the first half of the Auburn game. I expect LSU to fine tune there offense in this game, before they head into the meat and bones schedule of the SEC. Historically LSU has routed Miss. St. There defense should be able to limit Miss State here to 7 maybe 10 points. I have faith in LSU scoring 5 tds. LSU is 10-1 ATS the last 11. Miss St. offense is terrible, there defense is a little better, but not as good as what LSU faced last week. LSU in a route 42-10.

Cinci -10 2.4-2
NMST/NM Over 52.5 1.1-1


Minnesota +18 1.1-1
Minnesota has played well in there first 4 non conference games. They come into this tilt 4-0. They are having alot of success with there spread offense, and the young kids they have offense have gelled well. After watching OSU for 3 weeks now, @ home to Ohio, @ USC, and @ home against Toledo, this team doesnt have that killer instinct. Something is missing, maybe Wells not playing is the reason. Pryor looked great last week, I was impressed. Minnesota defense is improved since last year, and the main reason I'm betting this I think the Gophers have alot of confidence right now, and I mean alot. This team was terrible last year, and emotional there are riding a roller coaster. Brewster has his team believing, and Adam Webber has managed the games remarkably. There TO % is among the country's best. I see a 10-14 pt win for OSU, not 3 scores that Vegas has predicted.

Colorado +6 2.2-2
One of many of the live dogs this weekend. Wrong team is favored here. Colorado showed last week that a good quarterback, a good running game, and a good defense get you W's in football. This florida St team showed there true colors with there first true matchup of the season last week, with 7 turnovers.

Michigan/Wisky Under 42.5 1.1-1
Tough game to digest from a side standpoint. I believe Wisky is slightly better than a touchdown over Michigan, but Michigan/Wisky games are always tight at the big house. Both teams will run the ball, both teams will burn the clock in this one. As long as both teams avoid mistakes and dont give the other team short field position, this one should stay under.
The last 5 meetings at the big house
Michigan 27 Wisky 13
Michigan 21 Wisky 14
Michigan 13 Wisky 10
Michigan 27 Wisky 10
Wisky 31 Michigan 19

Purdue ML 1-1
Wrong team favored, just going with my gut as I believe Purdue should win this one. Purdue should find a way to score points. I'm not a believer in ND offense yet. They did put up 35 against Michigan, but alot of turnovers and short field position lead to those points for ND.

TCU +18 1.1-1
TCU defense has allowed 31 points in 4 games this year. Where as OU has scored an average of 54 points per tilt. TCU defense is hands down one of the best in the country. Don't like it that OU has some revenge in this game, but this is one possession to many. TCU isn't going to go into OU and just roll over and die. They have been here, and beat OU before. This might be one of the better games all weekend.

Central Michigan/Buffalo Over 63 2.2-2
Both teams can score, both teams should rely on passing the ball. Starks is doubtful for Buffalo which should take away clock burning running attack by Buffalo. Buffalo's defense is pretty depleted, and Central Michigan 32-56-28 points the last 3 outings. Game should be something like 38-28.
Over is 11-4 in BUFF last 15 conference games.
Over is 10-2 in CMICH last 12 games overall.
Caution before taking Buffalo. CMICH are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 home games

Marshal +15 1.1-1
Miss +22.5 2.2-2
GA -6.5 1.1-1
Auburn -6.5 3.3-3
Illy +16.5 1.1-1
CLemson -11 1.1-1
Northwestern +8 1.1-1
BG -3 1.1-1
 
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Great start to what I believe is your first season betting CFB Marlo? Either way good job bro. GL this week.
 
have a feeling COlorado goes down this week . Not sure they can handle the FSU defense and that could lead to short fields . FSU offense is poor as usual but the only reason they lost is because they faced a solid WFU defense . Wake did little to win that game they just didnt lose it ...Wake was 2-15 on 3rd down and ran it 38 times for 59 net yards..FSU was 7/16 on 3rd down but QB played killed them...

Not to mention COL didnt deserve to beat WVU at home:cheers:
 
Thanks J, yes its going well, going to try and tone down the plays though. Had way to much action last week, with not enough prep.

Kyle, since I can't get out and hit the clubs right now....beating down the books is my only choice.

Sport, when we don't agree on a play your 99% of the time on the right side. I will look into it more.

:cheers:
 
Some games that I can't get a read on.

Michigan/Wisky -6
Wisky def the better team, but only less than a TD at the big house. Michigan got beat by Utah, barely escaped a Miami ohio team, and played terrible against ND.

Michigan St/Indiana +8
To conflicting styles of play here, can JR really run the ball against 35-40 times? Indiana loves to air it out.

Purdue/Notre Dame -1.5
Game is a complete toss up, Im still not drinking the ND kool aid, but Purdue has played 2 really close games the last 2 weeks.

Stanford/Washington -3.5
If any team is desperate its Wash, but what have they shown us this year, that they should be Favs in this spot.

Bama/Georgia -7
I've read that many think this game should have opened at -3. It currently sits at -7, and the sexy pick is Bama with the TD. Overreaction from the Bama/Arky game?


Clemson/Maryland +11
Clemson hasn't shown us they can blow teams out, but only giving 11? Maryland has put up points in there last 2 outings, but that was against Eastern Michigan, and CAL. Thought I would see a -14 here.

Oregon/Washington St. +20
Isn't someone from CTG starting at QB for Oregon this week? 20 on the road in a division game.
 
I am on USC and LSU. Both should be beat downs. Michigan line is odd. Michigan sucks, Wisky is a top 15 team and they are only lay 6? Was thinking maybe -8 or -9. Love Alabama. They aren't getting enough respect. GA looked damn good last week at AZST but I will gladly take the 7 in a SEC rivalry. Like Purdue this week as well. ND still hasn't impressed me at all. Lean to Col but FSU defense isn't WVU. Not sure about that game. GL this week.
 
Thanks J, yes its going well, going to try and tone down the plays though. Had way to much action last week, with not enough prep.

Kyle, since I can't get out and hit the clubs right now....beating down the books is my only choice.

Sport, when we don't agree on a play your 99% of the time on the right side. I will look into it more.

:cheers:

If thats the case then please BOLD when we are clearly on opposite sides . Though I doubt its anywhere near that .

Games like that FSU-COL one I just see as the type where people loaded on WAKE as an FSU fade and got paid but it was nowhere as easy as expected or by the final score indicates . While people will see COL beating WVU and IMO they were just simply handed a guft wrapped win .

FSU has a really good defense and the offense should be able to do more then they did vs WAKE's solid defense ...not impressed with the COL defense .

I look at it like this I dont think they win SU so what do the pts matter ? Of course at times they do but rarely when there is a strong perception bias to the dog ....

Still have to research that game more but CU has holes that can be exploited .

As for the others ...I bought Michigan to +7.5 as soon as I could for a decent price . Wisky is less then a FG at Fresno and barely wins and now they are gonna go to Michigan and win by TD ? I dont see it . They were sloppy at home leaving alot of pts on the board early but overcame that because they were just so much better then there opponents . Michigan killed themselves with turnovers @ ND and they should be much less of them at home . Almost everythin ND did offensively was off a turnover and they hit 1 big pass play ...Just a game that if Michigan doesnt win see them worst case falling by 3 or 4 pts ...

With ND like them at home. There defense is solid . I had a rather strong play on Mich State last week because the ND offense was a huge concern and thought we could see 27-14 type game . Purdue is off two tough home games and now has to travel . There defense has shown some flaws IMO and the offense has not looked as good as I thought ...jsut expect ND to find a way to win here ...

CFB is funny because I dont research it as much as other sports . Sort of approach like it a poker player who rather then look at his cards just plays based on his position . I just look at the situations and perception cupled with how the line is set and go from there . So not going to be able to WOW anyone with indepth research ...

BOL bro:cheers::shake:
 
your rolling along nicely man, keep it up. I really don't lean against any of your picks and that Mich Under sticks out pretty good to me. Low scoring affair in the B10 sounds about right.
 
Good luck bro. Love that LSU game and I'm still on the fence about Minny and Colorado, will prob. be on the buffs. :shake:
 
Thanks TD/Ramble/ETG.

Added Purdue/the over in CM/TCU

Can someone explain to me this Auburn/Tennessee Game?

I watched Tennesse play Florida, and I wasn't impressed whatsoever. Auburn in the 2 games I watched looked very impressive. I gotta think Auburn is the better team here, and I have a hard time finding a way to back Tennessee, but something doesnt sit right here.

I know Fulmer is undefeated after playing Florida.
 
Glad to see someone with the cajones to bet TCU which definitely looks like the sharp side for that game.

gl this week marlo.
 
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