WEEK 5 HAMMERS!!!!!

HammersSpreads

HammersSpreads

Pretty much a regular
Season Record: 19-10 (65.5%)
Sides Record: 17-9 (65.39%)
Totals Record: 2-1 (66.67%)


MASTER Record: 2-2 (50%)

HAMMERED Record: 0-1 (0.00%)


3-3 LAST WEEK


Still haven't found a groove, which is normally what I expect early in the season. I am learning more and more about the teams though, still about a week or 2 away from feeling real confident in my "feel" for teams.
Last week was the 1st week I felt like I had bad reads on games.
NIU just isnt impressive right now, especially on defense. Their pass D has a lot of work to do if they expect to win the MAC. Doesn't help when you give up 20 points in the first 5 minutes of a game. I still like Ball St & Toledo here in the MAC.
SJSU just got ABUSED on the offensive & defensive lines. Fales is a stud, but there is only so much he can do. There is no reason why they should have allowed Minnesota to run down their throats, but they did. Something to pay attention to, especially this week against Utah St
Utah St. is solid, I love this team. If Gary Anderson was still coaching here then they would have beat USC straight up. Very questionable calls to do a fake punt on your own 30 yd line & then go for it on 4th down w/ almost 5 minutes left inside your own territory. Defense was playing lights out, that just wasnt a good coaching call.
ULL - I guess you could call it a back door cover against me, but I honestly expected them to handle Akron much better. Early on I felt great about it when they jumped out early, but then it faded.
Wyoming is a MACHINE
Ball St. looks SEXY

Since I am high OU fan/follower, I will try to give a break down of this weeks game against ND. I am very non-biased when it comes to OU as well. I am honestly surprised that they are 3.5 pt favorites (and a little bummed). But I am looking forward to this game BIG TIME this week.


I have lots of leans right now that I am gonna break down, & like quite a bit of dogs (which i like when that happens):

Kent St. (+3)
Utah St. (-8.5)
Wyoming (-11)
Buffalo (+2)
Tulsa (-3)
Arky St (+21)
LSU (+3)
Ole Miss (+16)
Southern Miss (+26)
& there are a few more I like too. I will cut these down though & get to lookin at them.

BOL this week gang

 
Thanks Yanks :shake:



Strongest leans after last night:


Kent St
Utah St




I'm not worried about Kent St's line moving b/c I will be playing solely the MoneyLine on it. The only reason I can think that Kent St wont win the game is b/c of past trends....and trends were made to be broken. The bet will make me feel a lot better if I can find out just how healthy RB Archer & OL McShane are, although even if both miss the game or aren't 100% i stil think they win SU.


I missed the -8.5 on Utah St., which was to be expected. It's already past key numbers, so I'm going to see what the line does. Speaking of lines.....thats the reason to take Utah St. here. Like I said earlier, David Fales can only do so much for Sparty. Utah St is the same (if not better than last year), SJSU isn't as good as they were last year....& last year the Aggies had zero problems with Sparty @ San Jose to the tune of 49-27.


Feeling good about both of these right now, but haven't locked anything in yet. Further write-ups to come
 
hammer great job my brother 19-10 keep that money train rolling
 
Thanks D

ya I see that McShane and Archer are both likely going to play. I honestly think they were holding them out until they got back to conference play. It'd be nice to know how healthy they are, but I really think Durham could run through W Mich by himself anyway.

Plays that will most likely be locked in:
Kent St
Wyoming
Florida

i still really like Utah St, but I may like the OVER more in that game. I'm gonna do some more looking.


The Ms. is off work tonight, so I'll prob lock them in tomorrow. See ya then fellas
 
Agree w/ many of your leans, except Lsu. Only problem w/ SJSU over is how good that Utah St D is. BOL this week :shake:
 
Va Tech ML (+245) ----- 1/2 unit
----- I like to live dangerously

Leans:
Kent St. ML - this will be locked in, just waiting for reduced juice lines pretty much
Utah St. (-9.5) - most likely going to play, I can't seem to talk myself off it
Wyoming (-12) - this is as good as locked in.....
Buffalo (pk) - debating, hoping to get Buffalo as a dog

LSU ML - debating
Bama (-14) - thought I liked Ole Miss at first, but I am beginning to really like Bama now. Especially if this line keeps crumbling

Stanford (-10)
Oregon St/Colorado OVER
Arizona/Washington OVER

Ohio St/Wiscy UNDER
OU/ND UNDER
 
Utah St. (-10)
----- Very rarely do I bet a road team, especially laying chalk, during a "Weeknight" game. I've tried to talk myself out of this all week, & all that happened was that I felt stronger about the play.
I love SJSU, I rode them like a pony last year....but this isn't the same Spartans as last year, at least not to this point. David Fales is a stud, but he can only do so much for this team. Their offensive line just looks out of sync, they can't run the ball & even their pass blocking isn't good, & Fales would be sacked much more if it wasnt for all the quick passes. Their defense is obviously having a hard time w/ the switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4, & I suspect its b/c they dont have the hogs up front to handle it. They had 2 weeks to get ready for Minnesota, knowing that they can't pass & had to stop the run, & failed miserably.
Utah St. is 2-2 & could very easily be 4-0 w/ a couple very good wins on their schedule. They have advantages on offense & defense against SJSU. They have probably the best o-line in the MWC going against a d-line that looks baaaaad. Now SJSU has to deal w/ a QB that can run & throw, & do both quite well.
My only concern is the whole national TV on a "weeknight" aspect that SJSU has going for them tonight.....but they also had their first national TV game last week, in which they had 2 weeks to prepare for their opponent, & they didn't look good at all. Last year, SJSU had a 2 weeks to prepare for Utah St. while the Aggies were coming off a physical game against BYU the week before....& the Aggies still drummed them by 22 pts b/c SJSU couldn't run the ball.
I think Utah St scores in the 40's, & SJSU scores in the 20's, so I have a very strong lean on the OVER also.


Leans:Kent St. ML - Tried to get cute & wait too long to lock it in. Might have been a MASTER, but I will still at least play it for sure.
Wyoming (-11.5) - this is as good as locked in...possibly a MASTER
Buffalo (pk) - debating, hoping to get Buffalo as a dog

LSU ML - debating
Bama (-15) - This is a near guarantee now....I'm loving Bama this week all of the sudden.

Stanford (-10)
Oregon St/Colorado OVER - Weather this weekend is KILLING my chances of locking this in.

Arizona/Washington OVER - Weather this weekend is KILLING my chances of locking this in.

OU/ND UNDER - I have no idea how 50 points get scored in this game
 
Also a little take on OU/ND....I could go into much more w/ this game. Very excited about it
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]OU/ND:[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]I'll give a little thought about this game. I honestly don't have much of an opinion on the game from a betting perspective. I will say that I was pretty surprised to see OU a favorite, & much more surprised to see all the love they are getting & the number rising. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Last years game against ND, the final was rather misleading. It was a 13-13 game w/ around 10 minutes left, then the wheels fell off. I strongly believe that OU still looks at this game & it motivates them. It's what has motivated them all offseason. Players have said that the A&M beatdown didn't sting & motivate them near as much as the ND game has. I can buy into that....there is a different mentality starting to come back into Norman. I believe this game may have started the wheels in motion to get rid of Patton & Shipp (the O & D line coaches). [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Turnovers are always a key thing in any game. So I won't go into all that, but turnovers are of course a HUGE factor in a big game.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]For OU, the key is to get physical. Compete with the big boys of ND. Compete at the line of scrimmage. They got man handled last year. OU brought in Bill Bedenbaugh to coach the o-line over the offseason, & he is wanting a more physical & tough mentality. A fun example is how starting LT Thompson got hurt in the 4th qtr against Tulsa, & originally got diagnosed w/ a high ankle sprain. They ended up downgrading it, but he was at practice going full speed on Monday. He said that last year he would have just sat out for a week or 2....that they didn't have that kind of tough mentality then. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]This game will be won or lost on the line of scrimmage, plain & simple. & while OU has looked much better early on, please keep in mind that they haven't played anyone NEAR as physical or athletic as ND. On the contrary, ND has played a rather tough schedule early on. I am still on the fence if this is good or bad or OU. Notre Dame can be had on the line's though. I think Nix hasn't played as well as he did last year, & part may be due to the fact they lost a little bit on the defensive side. Michigan St was controlling the scrimmage fairly well against ND last week, but then they got cute & drifted away from what was working.[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Quarterback. Plain and simple. The BIGGEST factor in last years game, & the biggest factor as to why someone should back OU is the quarterback position. No...no I'm not talking about Landry Jones. EVERETT GOLSON was the best player on the football field last year. OU was Golson's coming out party. I had to sit here & listen to the sports radio around here praise Golson & talk about how good he is....but I was never sold on him throughout the whole year. With that said, he had a coming out party against OU last year. He was the key reason for ND's success last year. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So now the teams have changed roles. ND has a pocket passer, & OU has a dual-threat. How much of a difference will that make?? I have no idea. I do, however, expect for Blake Bell to play well. I dont think he will set the world on fire, but i do think he will play well. Blake Bell has fire...he has intensity, & teams rally around that. I think he will do well b/c he has played in big games before, & i don't think he is easily rattled. We shall see though. [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]So bottom line, I would have thrown some dollars on OU ML if they were an underdog. But I by no means have a good feel for this game b/c we still just dont know how good OU is, particularly on the lines. I think we can see that ND is the same grind it out team, but just not as good as they were last year. OU, on the other hand, we don't know just how good their offensive and defensive lines are. They have played well so far, but ND is much bigger and more physical than they have seen. I do think there will be much more 4 d-linemen, as opposed to the 3 man front they have been running. I am very confident that the Stoops have been game planning well for this game, and we will see things from OU that we haven't seen yet. I see lots more 4 down linemen, and i can see some different running game looks. [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]BOL to whatever you bet, & BOOMER SOONER. [/FONT]
 
Kent St ML (-120)
----- Dri Archer is back. I'll take the team with by far the best player on the field. Kent also gets about 4 other players back including another change of pace RB. This would be a MASTER if I knew just how healthy Archer was.

Alabama (-13.5)
----- A lot of Ole Miss hype has brought this line WAY down. Now it sits to where it's saying that Ole Miss is as good as A&M based on Bama/A&M's spread. While I agree with this, it makes me feel stronger about this bet bc Bama should have covered easily against the Aggies. Ole Miss had a week off to prepare for Bama, but if you think that Bama spent all of last week preparing for Colorado St, you're fooling yourself. And they rested plenty of players last week.

Wyoming (-10)
----- JDNmoney had a great write up about this game. I can't think of 1 reason to not think Wyoming rolls all over Texas St....the only thing that is concerning is the travel.


Colorado/Oregon St OVER
----- this line has plummeted bc of weather. And even though the weather scares me, I still see both teams getting near 30 points. So I think I'll have to play it as it sits at 54.5


BOL Gents
GET MONEY!!!!!
 
Adding:

Stanford (-9)
-----love mike leach and hate betting against him. But I don't think he has the horses to stay with Stanford. And this is a neutral field, not at Stanford
 
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