Fresno St (-4.5) ----- REG WINNER
I've seen little leaguers take better pursuit angles than these Fresno defenders do. Defense tighten up in the 2nd half. Good pick. Side note.....I hope my Aztecs whip that ass next week.
Bowling Green (-5.5) ----- Small Potatoes
WTF is this line?? This has trap written all over it....sucker bet written all over it. & I'll bite on...I have to pay to see this. & that's my in-depth & thorough write-up for this game.
Miami OH (+6) ----- Small Potatoes (.75u)
Miami OH ML (+215) ----- Small Potatoes (.5u)
I love what Miami OH is doing so far this year. So much more competitive....I thought they would be good ATS early in the year, & really wish I would have went through with it & bet them. Oh well, I'll start now b/c I think Buffalo is on a bit of a down year, & Miami has some of that swag back. This team looks sneaky competitive.
Miami FL (-6.5) ----- REG
One concern here....Miami's rush defense. I have major concerns about it & it's the only reason this isn't a bigger bet. With that said, Duke has played cupcakes (& demolished them rightfully so). Miami is a little more battle tested, & I went back & re-watched the Nebraska game from last week & I am very, very impressed with how much better Kaaya is playing. Furthermore, I don't care what the final score was in that game, or even that Nebby was up 17 in the 4th qtr....Miami's fumble in the 3rd qtr totally changed that game or they may have had the lead late in the 3rd. I had a strong lean on Nebby last week too...but chicken out b/c I didn't like the -8 number. Anyway, Kaaya went into an extremely hostile crowd & played very well. This is the game we find out if Duke misses Kurt Roper, & I think they do. Miami didn't have their own Duke last year, & if the QB play can just match what it was last week, I think Miami wins this by DD's. I don't expect Duke to unearth an Ameer Abdullah....or even 5 OL that can block like Nebby's can.
Texas St (+3) & ML (+140) ----- REG
1 thing keeping this from being a MASTER is that I have serious situational edge concerns. Texas St is off an emotional game vs Illinois that they should have won, while Tulsa had a BYE week. Regardless, I think Texas St wins & won't be surprised if it's by DD's. I follow Tulsa football fairly closely, & this team has major defensive problems. I love Bill Blankenship (& even played against his HS team that he coached), but I just don't think he's been able to recruit the talent or athletes needed. The defense is so, so bad right now, & I don't think a BYE week is going to fix their problems. This team needs game-time experience, if anything. Dane Evans is much improved, & I still believe that Tulsa will win some games late in the season as the team (mainly defense & OL) mature. Texas St can run & pass the football, so I don't see much way that Tulsa can slow them down at all. Defensively, Texas St has a chance to put some pressure on Evans & force him into mistakes, as the kid has problems when faced w/ pressure. Again, this game would be MASTERED if it wasn't for the huge situational advantage that Tulsa has in this game.
Wazzou (+14) ----- REG
Wazzou ML (+460) ----- Small Potatoes
This is one of the BIGGEST sandwich games you will see all year long here for Utah. Just got off a huge roadie to The Big House & whipped up on Michigan, now play Wazzou who is 1-3 (although I know they are well aware that the Cougs almost beat Oregon), & next week have UCLA on deck. Just a massive sandwich game & I'm shocked that this line has jumped so much. I understand the love for Utah here.....hell, Wazzou could be in big letdown mode b/c they were so close to knocking off Oregon. I'll hold my breathe that Wazzou knows that they are 1-3, were a bowl team last year, & that they have gotten better the last 2 games they have played. Utah likes to play a physical style of football, which works well against Michigan, but not so sure it works so well against Mike Leach's offense. Last year Holliday threw all over the Utes, & I think it's b/c this offense doesn't play into Utah's wheelhouse. Wazzou's DL is their strength (if you want to call it that) on defense, which may be able to help some of the bleeding here in this game against a physical team. But make no mistake about it, this a major play on the terrible spot that it is for Utah & the fact that I'll take 2 TD's here all day. Very close to being MASTERED, but for now has 2u's on it.
Nevada (-5.5) ----- REG
Loved it at -2 on Sunday night & should have unloaded on it. Now it's climbed like crazy but I still think Nevada steamrolls SJSU, & the only way they don't is if they are too busy thinking about Boise next week. I like to think I follow SJSU pretty closely.....last year I was 7-1 betting their games ATS (started out 1-1 ATS) & was also 2-0 on my leans for them. This team resembles last years team in a big way.....aside for the fact they don't have a Fales throwing the ball. Basically, SJSU can't run the football.....now, much like last year at this time they couldn't either. SJSU will be able to run the football later in the year, which will help their offense out a lot. But right now they can't. SJSU still can't stop the run, although they have played amazing running teams, I still don't think they can stop it all. Sparty has good interior DL's, but nothing on the edge....& when playing Nevada this won't help them at all. SJSU has major troubles w/ running QB's b/c of this also...so Cody F should have a big day. Add in that Sparta has QB troubles still (no David Fales) & are starting a new QB this week, I just can't see how this goes well. RB Lawson comes back, which will help the run game as the season goes, but right now I don't think it will. WR Winston will help the new QB Joe Gray, as will Gray's ability to throw quick intermediate passes, but again I just don't see how it's going to be overly successful in his 1st game. This situation matches up identical to last year....SJSU had a bye (like this year) to figure out their run D problems, traveled to Minnesota & got steam rolled by the run game (like this year), & now play a team w/ a mobile QB & pretty good defense (like last year). Last year they got steamrolled by Utah St. 40-12. I was very leery of Brian Polian when he got hired & wanted to see how he did early this year, & I'm every bit impressed. He's gameplanned to where his team will pass when needed against a team, & his team will run when needed against a team. I also think SJSU misses HC Mike MacIntyre dearly. I thought Nevada could be a serious darkhorse in the MWC this year, & I've seen nothing to change my mind so far.
ML Parlay (+120):
Baylor, Temple, Stanford, SDSU
I missed a lot of lines this week. Miami's jumped up, Nevada's jumped up. I loved Temple @ -3 & -4 but now it's all the way up to -7. Love Stanford this week & if that game gets below a TD then I'll add it. The ML parlay is basically a play on the fact I think there is a 0.1% chance that SDSU & Baylor lose, so it's a way to make money on Stanford & Temple hopefully (unless their lines drop then I'll play them ATS).
UTSA almost made the card but that line has crept up too far. Kinda wish I put them in a ML parlay. Also, if S Bama keeps dropping I may have to play them.
No MASTERS as of yet....last week I should have took the week off of them. I played 1 instead & it lost....frustrating b/c I had 3 that I liked a lot & the other 2 won. Tomorrow there's a good chance I come back & add a MASTER to this card. I LOVE Nevada this week & that may get bumped up....also really like Wazzou & Texas St.
Next week is when, IMO, great college football begins. Starting next week the cards should be LOADED with great games & opportunities.
GL peeps, I'll prob stop back by tomorrow
