TNF: COLTS
The Patriots are being overvalued here after exposing a lackluster Miami team. Miami was missing key pieces on defense and its top wide receiver. Miami's offense looked uninspired without Devante Parker. Even New England’s newly acquired corner from free agency was locking down Miami’s receiving corps. The Patriots beat a team who had beaten two bad teams and a messy and injury-ridden Titans squad in the opener. So there’s no value in New England because there’s nothing really impressive about their bounce-back victory.
I’ve been having fortune with backing Indy as a dog. Andrew Luck is healthy and having a great season. He just lit up a highly regarded Houston defense, 40-for-62, 464 yards four touchdowns and zero interceptions. T.Y. HIlton was dinged up during the game, but that didn’t stop Luck from leading a fourth-quarter comeback. In backing the underdog with a big spread like this one, it’s important to know the team’s character. If worse comes to worst and Indy is down a couple scores, Luck won’t give up, at least not for his bettors.
SNF: TEXANS
Houston is arguably the best losing team with the level of talent that it has at quarterback, receiver, and on defense. Dallas enjoys a boost from its home crowd but remains lackluster on the road, mustering eight points at Carolina and 13 in Seattle. The key is to stop Dallas superstar running back Ezekiel Elliot. Houston’s run defense is trending upwards. The linebackers feature Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom excel against the run. Also in terms of pass rush, J.J. Watt is finding his groove, so also trending upwards. He’s produced five sacks in his past two games and four stuffs in his past three games. Watt will lead the charge against a struggling Dallas o-line that ranks 30th in percentage of sacks allowed.
On offense, Houston’s strength is Dallas’ weakness. Dallas’ pass defense ranks 28th in opposing quarterback rating. DeShaun Watson is amassing yards and touchdowns on a weekly basis with superstars Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. The run game would even get a serious boost if Dallas linebacker Sean Lee remains injured.
COLTS: Patriots overvalued after beating an overrated and uninspired Miami team. This is too many points to be giving Andrew Luck, who is consistently keeping Colts competitive against favored teams.
BILLS: The Titans just achieved a highly dramatic upset against the defending champs. I know it’s the Bills, but it’s not like they’re incapable of winning—see Bills vs Vikings. This one screams let-down.
DOLPHINS: Don’t overreact to uninspired effort against pissed off Pats. Cincy is pass-first and Fins’ improved secondary (second in opp. qb rating) will keep it close. More Drake on ‚O' will help TOP.
BROWNS: I get that Baltimore’s defense is superb, but so is Cleveland’s. Baltimore is pass-first and Cleveland ranks 5th in opposing QB rating. Ogbah and Kirksey are healthy again. Game will be tight.
LIONS: Tempting to auto-bet Rodgers, but he can’t play defense as well. Packers’ secondary is dinged up with numerous injures and Detroit has the weapons to take advantage—Stafford, Tate and Golladay
JAGUARS: Chiefs’ run D is abysmal and injury-ridden (Ford and Berry) and the Jags like to run and control tempo. Jags’ D is elite, led by two top corners and d-line. This will be Mahomes’ toughest test.
JETS: Broncos rely on their rush attack because Keenum isn’t good. They’ll face a much stiffer test from New York’s d-line. The Jets rank 7th in opposing YPC. Broncos not the same away from Denver.
STEELERS: Falcons’ defense is really suffering from its injuries at linebacker and safety. Pittsburgh ‚O‘ will therefore bounce back against much easier test. Steelers 4-0 ATS since 2017 after SU loss.
GIANTS: I loved how New York’s defense looked against New Orleans and that was without Apple and Vernon, who very well could return. Carolina run D ranks low in opposing YPC, so Saquon should have big day.
RAIDERS: Defense is optional in this one, although the rivalry factor could give us a tighter affair. Historically, this has often been a closer match-up and I don’t see much separating either team.
EAGLES: Minnesota’s famed defense has looked like a mess the past few weeks while the Eagles’ offense is getting guys healthier and should keep jelling. Wentz and Jeffery already looked great together.
49ERS: Rookie Rosen’s first ever road game. Beathard looked competent and the 49ers were surprisingly effective despite injuries. Arizona’s O still looks pedestrian, has yet to score more than 17 points.
RAMS: Rams still look unbeatable. Its offense will spread out the defense and create so much space for its sundry receivers or Gurley. Seahawks will miss key piece Earl Thomas in the secondary.
REDSKINS: Skins have a strong secondary led by Josh Norman that ranks third in opposing passer rating. He’ll limit Brees and Thomas. Saints ‚D" that allowed 40+ points in two different games is still unreliable
TEXANS: Dallas has been pedestrian away, scoring 21 points in two road games. Houston has the linebacker quality to stop Elliot. Dallas pass ‚D‘ vulnerable, so Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins will excel.
The Patriots are being overvalued here after exposing a lackluster Miami team. Miami was missing key pieces on defense and its top wide receiver. Miami's offense looked uninspired without Devante Parker. Even New England’s newly acquired corner from free agency was locking down Miami’s receiving corps. The Patriots beat a team who had beaten two bad teams and a messy and injury-ridden Titans squad in the opener. So there’s no value in New England because there’s nothing really impressive about their bounce-back victory.
I’ve been having fortune with backing Indy as a dog. Andrew Luck is healthy and having a great season. He just lit up a highly regarded Houston defense, 40-for-62, 464 yards four touchdowns and zero interceptions. T.Y. HIlton was dinged up during the game, but that didn’t stop Luck from leading a fourth-quarter comeback. In backing the underdog with a big spread like this one, it’s important to know the team’s character. If worse comes to worst and Indy is down a couple scores, Luck won’t give up, at least not for his bettors.
SNF: TEXANS
Houston is arguably the best losing team with the level of talent that it has at quarterback, receiver, and on defense. Dallas enjoys a boost from its home crowd but remains lackluster on the road, mustering eight points at Carolina and 13 in Seattle. The key is to stop Dallas superstar running back Ezekiel Elliot. Houston’s run defense is trending upwards. The linebackers feature Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney, both of whom excel against the run. Also in terms of pass rush, J.J. Watt is finding his groove, so also trending upwards. He’s produced five sacks in his past two games and four stuffs in his past three games. Watt will lead the charge against a struggling Dallas o-line that ranks 30th in percentage of sacks allowed.
On offense, Houston’s strength is Dallas’ weakness. Dallas’ pass defense ranks 28th in opposing quarterback rating. DeShaun Watson is amassing yards and touchdowns on a weekly basis with superstars Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins at receiver. The run game would even get a serious boost if Dallas linebacker Sean Lee remains injured.
COLTS: Patriots overvalued after beating an overrated and uninspired Miami team. This is too many points to be giving Andrew Luck, who is consistently keeping Colts competitive against favored teams.
BILLS: The Titans just achieved a highly dramatic upset against the defending champs. I know it’s the Bills, but it’s not like they’re incapable of winning—see Bills vs Vikings. This one screams let-down.
DOLPHINS: Don’t overreact to uninspired effort against pissed off Pats. Cincy is pass-first and Fins’ improved secondary (second in opp. qb rating) will keep it close. More Drake on ‚O' will help TOP.
BROWNS: I get that Baltimore’s defense is superb, but so is Cleveland’s. Baltimore is pass-first and Cleveland ranks 5th in opposing QB rating. Ogbah and Kirksey are healthy again. Game will be tight.
LIONS: Tempting to auto-bet Rodgers, but he can’t play defense as well. Packers’ secondary is dinged up with numerous injures and Detroit has the weapons to take advantage—Stafford, Tate and Golladay
JAGUARS: Chiefs’ run D is abysmal and injury-ridden (Ford and Berry) and the Jags like to run and control tempo. Jags’ D is elite, led by two top corners and d-line. This will be Mahomes’ toughest test.
JETS: Broncos rely on their rush attack because Keenum isn’t good. They’ll face a much stiffer test from New York’s d-line. The Jets rank 7th in opposing YPC. Broncos not the same away from Denver.
STEELERS: Falcons’ defense is really suffering from its injuries at linebacker and safety. Pittsburgh ‚O‘ will therefore bounce back against much easier test. Steelers 4-0 ATS since 2017 after SU loss.
GIANTS: I loved how New York’s defense looked against New Orleans and that was without Apple and Vernon, who very well could return. Carolina run D ranks low in opposing YPC, so Saquon should have big day.
RAIDERS: Defense is optional in this one, although the rivalry factor could give us a tighter affair. Historically, this has often been a closer match-up and I don’t see much separating either team.
EAGLES: Minnesota’s famed defense has looked like a mess the past few weeks while the Eagles’ offense is getting guys healthier and should keep jelling. Wentz and Jeffery already looked great together.
49ERS: Rookie Rosen’s first ever road game. Beathard looked competent and the 49ers were surprisingly effective despite injuries. Arizona’s O still looks pedestrian, has yet to score more than 17 points.
RAMS: Rams still look unbeatable. Its offense will spread out the defense and create so much space for its sundry receivers or Gurley. Seahawks will miss key piece Earl Thomas in the secondary.
REDSKINS: Skins have a strong secondary led by Josh Norman that ranks third in opposing passer rating. He’ll limit Brees and Thomas. Saints ‚D" that allowed 40+ points in two different games is still unreliable
TEXANS: Dallas has been pedestrian away, scoring 21 points in two road games. Houston has the linebacker quality to stop Elliot. Dallas pass ‚D‘ vulnerable, so Watson, Fuller, and Hopkins will excel.
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