Week 5 FCS Plays and Discussion.....

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
Week 4

2* 3-0...... +6u
1* 1-0...... +1u

Week 5

2* 0-0-1...... +0u
1* 2-0...... +2u

Overall

2* 6-0-1 ..... +12u
1* 6-6...... -.75u

Swept the FCS card last weekend, and was swept on the FBS plays I posted. So I'll knock that shit off.



FCS Plays

2* Richmond +6/Wofford +7
1* James Madison -3/Liberty +18
1* Penn +14.5/Colgate +9.5

Week 5 Recap -


Another sweep of the card, with the exception of the push on the larger play. I would have went 5-1 ATS on the origional plays, but considering the 6 point cushion and the ability to get more money down than I would have on regular plays, it was very beneficial to do it this way once again.

Richmond pk teased to +6 20-26 final- This was the play that caused the larger teaser to push. Richmond feel into the "we're #1 trap" and Nova's QB controversy was cleared up with a solid performance from their backup. Looks like Young won't be seeing the field for the rest of the season.

Wofford +1 teased to +7 38-37 final - Wofford jumped out to a big lead at the half, but GaS once again found a way to come back, and send it to overtime. Wofford out gained the Eagles by 100yd, and dominated ball control with a 40/20 margin. Clearly the right side despite the close score.

JMU -9 teased to -3 24-10 final - The was the game I was most concerned about. with the event that JMU had a huge letdown after 2 huge wins. It was tied 3-3 going into the 4th, but the Dukes run game took over, and they put em away. JMU out gained Maine by 120 yards, and ran for 319 on the ground.

Penn +8.5 teased to +14.5 17-24 final - Penn needed a little comback in te 2h, after Layfayette did all their scoring in the 1h. It looks like it was another hard fought game, as the box score looks pretty even.

Colgate +3.5 teased to +9.5 31-24 final - Colgate went out and pounded the shit out of the ball, rushing 63 times for 379 yards. Hard to score, when you don't have the ball, and Fordham didn't.

Liberty +12 teased to +18 31-28 final - Liberty, as a double digit dog, goes out an takes care of business, getting a nice SU win. I called the game to have 90 rushes, but we only saw 73. Overall, just a very even game, and a FG as time expired decided it.
 
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2* Richmond +6/Wofford +7

Richmond travels to Villanova this week. Yes, Nova was a big play for me last week, and yes, Young was a douche bag and threw 4 INTs in the redzone, 2 of which were in the endzone. But Richmond is looking like a solid title contender this season. They went down to Elon in the season opener, and shut down an offense that is 5x that of Villanova's, at least IMO. I look for the Spiders to come out an make a statement in the CAA.

Wofford went into Columbia last week, and gave the Gamecocks a game, only losing by 10. Now they travel to Georgia Southern, to face a team off another last second loss to Elon (who statistically dominated them). GaS has been tied, or losing at the half in every game this season, and now they face the #2 rushing O in the country, yet their rush D ranks clear down at #82.

Last season's game was an all out slug fest between these two teams, as they combined for almost 800 rushing yards in the game. However, the loss of Jayson Foster will be evident in this game, and I look for Wofford to come out on top this time.
 
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Northeastern is also on my radar. They are an 0-3 team, but 2 games were against FBS teams, and the other was an OT loss.

UC Davis has opened the season at 1-3, and now has to travel 3000 miles to Boston, to play a 12:00 EST/9am PST game, a la Cal vs Maryland 2 weeks ago.

Yes, the Davis D is excellent, but it'll be an awfully early morning to play a decent team in their home opener.
 
A lot of fcs games in the northeast are in for some rain this week. Be sure to factor that in.
 
In an effort to focus more attention to the FCS games, I really want to get some thoughts down.These have been my bread and butter, and now that I can wager more money on them, it makes much more sense to focus a little heavier on something that I'm stronger at.

The #'s listed are what they should open at.

James Madison at Maine +11 - JMU off a huge win over App State, avenging last season's fluke loss in the playoffs. Now they have to travel out to the middle of nowhere, and take on the Bears. Plus, Deleware is on deck next weekend, and this is a super sandwich spot.

Liberty +11 at Youngstown State - YSU is fresh off of a big upset win against North Dakota State. They picked off Martens 4 times (who sprained his ankle pretty bad the week before against Wyoming), and put up 360 yards on the ground. But YSU's run D is pretty suspect, as they only rank #83. Yes, that includes a big game against Ohio State, but it also includes a really shitty D2 school as well, that evens it out. This could be a flat spot here for the Penguins, and Liberty's ground game is nothing to sleep on.
 
Central Arkansas +28 at Tulsa - Ratings wise, this is where the game should be at. Will it, I don't know. I'd assume that the line will be shaded Tulsa's way. But this puts up the #2 FBS offense against the #4 FCS offense. Sure, Tulsa is going to score, score, score, but if we see a line in the mid-upper 30's, Tulsa will have to be thinking about scoring close to 60, because I think C Arky puts up 21 here. An easy game to over look for Tulsa, with CUSA opening next week against Rice.
 
1* James Madison -3/Liberty +18

JMU came out a few points lower than I expected, and a chance to get them at just a FG favorite is too good to pass up. And Liberty came out just as I expected, but 18 points is a pretty significant spread to cover off a huge win, in a game that will see ~100 rushing attempts.
 
I'd like to think so, but last year's game ended in a 13-10 SEMO win, despite a +4 TO margin.

Also SEMO had to come from behind to squeak by a mediocre D2 team, despite benefiting from 4 ints and a fumble recovery, as well as 164 yards on 2 monster plays.

Then last week against Tennessee Tech, they were +3 in TOs again, and out gained by 150+ yards.

Indiana St is certainly a perennial bottom dweller, but the level of competition they've played is 20x that of SEMO. 2 FBS schools, and a top 25 FCS school in 3 games.

Honestly, I would like to think SEMO rolls, but no interest on betting shit against total shit.
 
But I will say that I will keep an eye on things, Dmoney. The line has now moved to -5.

I know it is a very, very small sample size, but last week line moves of 4+ points were only 1-5 I believe against the closing number. The only winner was Coastal, who blew out Towson, and a 28 point movement wouldn't have effected that game.
 
GL Hoopstar.I wish I could play these games with you.Frickin bookmaker and greek suck.They don't offer this. GL buddy.
 
Hoops- My hazy recollection of your previous cards leasd me to think you are only playing teasers. Is that correct?
You must havejumped in early becaues 5D is now showing Rich-4 (I still like Rich) and Wofford -1 1/2 ( I still like Wofford)
I was wondering if you would spot that Liberty game. GL with it.
JM should be a winner for you at 3 points.
That was one helluva game last week, huh?
I was sure I was on the right side at 21-0 , but I wasn't .
Still can't complain after that classic.

SE Mizzou is supposed to be better this year, and I'll prbably give them a shot.
Looking at Tenn-Martin, Penn, Princeton, and Yale
I'll add Northeastern to that mix. I think CalPoly are coming off a tough game with Montana and could be ripe for a let down vs a team they beat 28-10 in 2007.

GL
 
Yea Bull, I'm just looking at teasers now. I'm very confident that I can beat these lines with a 6 point cushion, because 5Dimes just does a simple calculation, and throws it on the board. I know what numbers they're going to hang, and know which way they will move if they don't hang an exact number. The FBS market is much smarter than I am, but I believe my subjective analysis on the FCS is better than the numbers they hang.

I also like the fact that I can bypass the $50 limits, 1.5 point line moves, and -120 lines. That's huge. I understand that it may be slightly riskier as going 1-1 in a pair of games will make me lose a full unit, as opposed to just juicing out, but I believe in the long run, I will easily be further a head bypassing the silly restrictions.

SEMO is worth a look, but I just can't trust a team that needs 5 TOs to squeak by a middle f the pack D2 team, no matter how bad Indiana State is. And who's to say how bad they really are? As the level of competition they've played is truly superior, especially for such a shitty team.

That JMU/App State game seems like it was another thriller last week. That would have been awesome to catch on TV. I'm pretty sure App State suffered some significant injuries, and the starting RB and DE are going to red shirt this year because of them. So that will be interesting moving forward.

Be careful with the weather up your way this weekend. VK pointed it out earlier, and I was totally oblivious that there was a mini storm coming off the ocean and hitting me tommorow, until I just saw it on the news while I was eating dinner tonight, lol. I wondered why it was so windy outside today.

GL this week, and maybe I'll steal a play or two off of you.
 
hoopsstar22 said:
I.

That JMU/App State game seems like it was another thriller last week. That would have been awesome to catch on TV.
Click to expand...


Well I turned it off after halftime being 21-0 and my Dukes were playing like crap....then my bro calls me about ten mins into the second half (he was there with JMU hotties) all fired up. I couldn't believe it was now 24-21! What a game from there on out...def. a classic!!!
 
def. a classic!!!
Glad you caught it Moot. I watched the whole thing.
Definitely a classic

Hoops- I should know the answer to this, but I don't.
What happens if one game pushes?
Is the bet a loss or a push? Or neither ???
Thanks
I might try a few this week.
I play mostly late when FBS juice is reduced ( betjamaica Fri eve and %D on game day ) so I will be up to date on the weather.
GL<!-- / message -->
 
Ties on a 2 team= No action..... On a 3 team, it would just drop down to a 2 team payout.

I'm keeping my eye on Mississippi Valley tonight, if that line keeps creeping up.
 
Not sure that I'm going to have any more plays this week.... None of the games that are likely to be effected by weather, seem to favor one team over the other. I'm not getting any big spreads, or predominate rushing teams against poor run Ds, or any mismatches like that.

Games that are still on my list.....

Dayton at Duquense +9.5 - Duquense has a Michigan State transfer under center, and is featuring a very strong passing O. Dayton's strength on D is against the run, and that's not what the Dukes do. Also, looking over last week's game against Robert Morris, Dayton scored off an INT return on the 3rd play of the game, and had 5 drives start inside RM territory. Still not sold on this Dayton team, in its first road game.

Sam Houston State at Gardner-Webb +8.5 - This is a long trip for SHSU to play an out of conference team. They do have former OU QB Rhett Bomar, and that's what is keeping me off GW. But the Bulldogs return nearly the whole team from a season ago that played an amazing schedule last year. They played Ohio, Mississippi State, App State, and Wofford, that's some amazing competition for a new Big South team. I do think GW has a solid D, and with their ability to pound to ball on the ground, catching these type of points at home could be a favorable situation.
 
Like the Wofford play, they should win outright.

Any thoughts on South Dakota at Montana State?

Last I heard, the line was MSU -11.5? That seems awfully high to me, South Dakota kept things somewhat tight at Northern Iowa, and lost at SE Louisiana because they went for 2 at the end of the game.

MSU played much better last week at Minnesota, but they have yet to play a FCS team, so they are hard to gauge. Just don't think they are at the level of Northern Iowa for sure, maybe not even SE Louisiana.

(btw I live in Bozeman and go to all the MSU games)
 
I think this is a significant jump up in competition for SD. This is their first year in the transition, and they return virtually no one on offense, which isn't a good sign.

I'm not sold on what they did against UNI, as they were coming back from BYU, and had SD St. on deck, who beat the living piss out of YSU.

SD's ratings and statistical rankings are super inflated, after playing 2 piece of shit D3 schools, so there's nothing real solid to go on here.

I think MSU should handle these guys pretty easily, but no real interest on the game for me.
 
And somebody just shit on Stony Brook, the lined moved from +2.5 to -1 in the last 10 min, as I was about to lock in Stony Brook.

Doh...
 
Someone's out there hitting these games... Northeastern just dropped from +2 to -1 also, and now Stony Brook is at -2.5....
 
Adding...

1* Penn +14.5/Colgate +9.5

Unless someone has died on the Penn team overnight, the line has moved to 8.5, which is ridiculous. The game will be decided by 1 score, regardless of who wins, so I feel comfortable taking Penn here catching 2 TDs.

We should see a little rain in the forecast which should benefit Colgate's power running game, and really control the clock. Again, this should be a game that goes down to the wire, and having this many points will help.
 
Blah... Richmond falls into the trap, and Nova's back-up QB started, and played a very solid game. Push on this game, make the teaser a push, regardless of the Wofford outcome.

We'll see what happens with the other games, but I wouldn't be surprised if I don't fare too well in FCS games, since I'm doing decent on the big boys for once.

Gl guys.
 
Added a recap of week 5 above....

Another solid week, and even most of my leans mentioned above were spot on.

Lets keep it up.
 
Good work, hooops.
I tried to get into your thread ( and others) all Friday evening and Saturday morning but I seemed to have been locked out of the forum. I guess I'm back.
Anyway I went 4-1 FCS, including a JMU-TennMartin tease., and had Liberty ATS. Finally a good week for me.
Cheers
bull
 
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