Week 5 Discussion

Your ATL/Ten over is an interesting lean... I have a hunch that TEN might cover... after the ATL performance today.
 
Stacks, Is your NFL record accurate with your posted plays? i just saw how you had a teaser in your plays that you lost and had 11 wins comin into today and have 2 wins. maybe you made a mistake. anyway def likeing buffalo and like jacksonville as well.
 
i accounted teasers in wins loss under units but only post record on sides and i added NYG+2 last night in edizzles post...everything ids up to dae now i had th eunder in last nigths game as well posted in week 4 plays i am all caught up...first year doing units for me as well and damn if that isn't confusing as hell haha, but i am accurate now
 
oh nice, hang in there man. this year's been a little rough for me, but its all goin to start and turn around. I know you will be aight.
 
It might be easier to discuss these games when we can see the matchups and the lines.

Carolina @ New Orleans -3

Jaxx @ KC+2.5

Detroit @ Washington -3.5

Atlanta @ Tennessee -8.5

Miami @ Houston -5.5

Seattle @ Pitt -6

NY Jets @ NY Giants -3

Tampa @ Indy -10

San Diego @ Denver -1.5

Balty @ San Fran +3.5

Chicago @ Green Bay -3

Dallas @ Buffalo +10
 
Buffalo is the best bet on the board right now.... hope it atleast stays at 10!
Also like KC at home, and I'm not sure why my Steelers are laying 6 to the Shehawks?
 
I know buffalo at home is good...but stepping in front of the #1 offense in the league is a bad idea at anything less than 2 TDs. I don't see how anyone can back this BUF team with that offense and defense. I think it's DAL or no play. The public play...but oh well.

PIT at home laying 6 seems about right. Why don't you think this is an accurate line handykapt? At home, steelers have looked good (aside from last week) this season, seahawks offense is still a little anemic. I thought this line was spot on.

I also like KC at home getting points and the Giants laying 3.
 
i lean giants and steelers as well...does it worry anyone that dallas really ahsn't played anyone good. im a bills fan an make no doubt about it we're not very good either but lets be real here. home game and mnf which is rare for the bills and some great fans who will be loud as shit. edwards impressed me a lot klast week and the team really played well and had a bit more juimp in their step. bills is the best play IMO
 
Why does everyone like the Bills so much this weekend? Their offense is bad, the defense is banged up and I just don't think that they are good on either side of the ball. Plus, they are playing one of the best teams in the NFL. I think that the Dallas offense will put up at least 28 points on the Bills while I see the buffalo struggling to get 17. Anyone care to share their thoughts on this game. I had this as one of my bigger plays of the weekend, but now I am not so sure.
 
Buffalo is badass at home apparently. And a home dog on MNF I think has some high rate of covering. I'd love if someone posted it. But this is one of those trends I throw out when a team is so outmatched on both sides of the ball. Edwards looked good, but against a shitty NYJ defense. I think DAL rolls, but this might be a no play for me. It's still a lot of points to lay on the road on MNF.

Troy - Dallas has only played mediocre or bad teams, but Im not sure how many teams there are that aren't mediocre right now. Indy, NE, PIT, maybe GB or SEA. I really don't think any other team out there deserves anything over a mediocre tag. They've beaten their opponents by 10, 17, 24, 28. I don't see how they don't cover here...

I think I just talked myself into backing Dallas. Ugh.
 
Last week was one of the few times where the home dogs didn't do it on MNF. I'll try looking for the trend.
 
We unfortunately saw what happens to the Steelers when the level of competition is stepped up. Yeah, it was a road game... but its safe to say Seattle is slightly better than Zona. I'll wait and see how they rebound from a loss before I lay 6 pts to a 3-1 team. (capped it at -4) 21-17...
As far as Dallas, they will not go 16-0, nor will Indy, or NE... I'm not saying Buffalo wins, but this will be the toughest test so far for Dallas. (AFC home dog vs NFC on monday night capped... it at -7) 24-17
 
dallas is not as good as you all think. Not saying bills are either but Dallas is nothing specil...there are two good teams this the nfl Indy and NE and thats it. much like ncaaf this season #1 and #2 and the rest however you wnt to rank them. Just my 2 cents
 
TroyStacks said:
i lean giants and steelers as well...does it worry anyone that dallas really ahsn't played anyone good. im a bills fan an make no doubt about it we're not very good either but lets be real here. home game and mnf which is rare for the bills and some great fans who will be loud as shit. edwards impressed me a lot klast week and the team really played well and had a bit more juimp in their step. bills is the best play IMO
Click to expand...

i agree with you on the bills, i also like the over. dallas has new england on deck next week...
 
If you want to make money on your billy goats I suggest taking them first half. Dallas has been playing it close in the first half, then have been able to wear teams down in the second half having their way.

Cowboys are allowing fewer points every week and winning by a bigger margin each week.

  1. New York — 35 points allowed; 10 point win
  2. Miami — 20 points allowed; 17 point win
  3. Chicago — 10 points allowed; 24 point win
  4. St. Louis — 7 points allowed; 28 point win
I agree the Bills never get respect at home, and if it weren't for them beating the pathetic jets last week then we are looking at a 14 point line prolly.

The only worries I have are special teams, now Dallas was able to shut down Hester a few weeks ago but lost their special teams stud Keith Davis and all coverage units broke down last week. The human joystick Dante Hall housed one punt and set up the lambs with great field position all day. Roscoe Parrish is just as dangerous, and if Dallas special teams cant contain him then we could see some bills special teams score.

There is just way to many injuries for me to back this billy goat defense. They are DEAD last in total defense(430 YPG) and they are going up against the #1 scoring offense. Their defense is going to have to get by on the MNF atmosphere and adrenaline to keep up with the dallas offense.

On the other hand we have the Bill offense who averages 226 YPG(31st in league) and 10.3 PPG (31st in the league.) Now I dont really care how good Trent Edwards looked against the Jets D, they are terrible at getting after the QB. They only have 3 sacks on the season, which is 3rd last in the league. Dallas has been solid against the run giving up 80 rushing YPG(7th in NFL) I'm not saying Marshawn Lynch is bad, but he has only been AVERAGE this season at 3.8 YPC. So Edwards is going to have to beat them deep with Lee Evens or Parrish, and neither Losman or Edwards have done so all season.
 
TroyStacks said:
i lean giants and steelers as well...does it worry anyone that dallas really ahsn't played anyone good. im a bills fan an make no doubt about it we're not very good either but lets be real here. home game and mnf which is rare for the bills and some great fans who will be loud as shit. edwards impressed me a lot klast week and the team really played well and had a bit more juimp in their step. bills is the best play IMO
Click to expand...

Dallas might not have played anyone good, but take a look at the other 4-0 teams opponents records.

Cowboys -- 3-13
Patriots -- 4-12
Packers -- 5-11
Colts -- 6-8
 
Other games i'm looking at

San Diego +1.5....They dont look the same as last year, but these San Diego is a covering machine as underdogs.

Atlanta +8.5....should Tenessee be over a TD fav against anyone? I dont think so. Atlanta has played decent this season and it looks like Harrington is getting more comfortable in Petrinos offense. Titans have had 2 weeks to prepare though and I dont like betting against VY.
 
Dallas 1st half scoring-----40 points
Dallas 2nd Half scoring----107 points

I like buffalo 1st half, but dallas to still cover for the game.
 
fair enough but i stand by my statement that Dallas and GB haven't proven shit to me excepot they can win the gamnes they are supposed to win. I will not be sold on ROmo either until he wins a playoff game. Overrated as shit alst year this year he looks good but being young and a new starter give him 1 playoff win before these fucking assholes on espn start the favre and marino comparasons, honestly the guy hasn't doen shit yet. I do think he a great interview though better than that ass clown Irvin haha"The U".I will prolly do what you suggested though E 1H bills 2Hdallas. or maybe just wait and play Dallas 2H and the over.
 
The Steelers - they might have overlooked the game in AZ + the Seahawks are still not a quality road team, they just stepped up in their revenge game vs a Niner team w/out their qb. - I like the Steelers a bit, hope the line comes down more too
 
Dont go against us this week. Were playing better and better also I think the thing that makes the biggest difference is Greg Ellis and Newman are back our best db and great pass rusher that helps out our only weakness our sec im telling were going to kick there ass!
 
I don't know man. Im with stacks on this one. I believe buffalo is the play. Last week vegas baited us with the bengals/pats and now they will surely get ya if you play dallas this week. I believe the bills are a much better team with Edwards as a quarterback. Lossman really blows and I think we may have seen the last of him. This kid Edwards is goin to be ok and their new starter.
 
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lynch put up 80 yards rushing vs the pats, and that was mostly in the 1st half. i think buff can stay with them at home if they'll pound the ball. itd be nice if it was windy as hell up there in NY too.
 
they aren't the best in the nfc you will see soon enough it dfixed for favres exit believe me. this tem has enough talent to beat anyone and have a conspiracy behind it. the nfls poster boy will go out with a superbwl win. the biggest underdog in a superbowl ever and they will win it. watch and see. future bet that then give me 20% february 5th or whatever t is....
 
haha! no so fast my friend. AFC wins another one this year.

thanks jackal. i won't be depositing into bodog though. my local will probably have +14 by gametime
:36_11_6:
 
This is coming from another website, it is a dallas website but the author Rafael Vela does a good job of being objective. He also gets into player personnel, match ups and game plan.

When Dallas Has the Ball
(sigh) We’ve got to wait again for our fun as the Cowboys will be on Monday Night Football. They’re excited in Buffalo where this will be their first home MNF in years. Too bad they’re so injury riddled. Still, expect a vocal crowd. (Too bad they can’t drown out the MNF’s crew’s blather, but that’s grist for another rant.”

The Cowboys will bring the league’s top scoring offense to face the NFL’s worst defense, in terms of yards. The Bills have been respectable in points allowed, though they still rank 20th in that category.
Buffalo has played a lot of cover-2 in recent years, keeping both safeties deep to prevent the big play. Unfortunately, that tactic has not worked particularly well this year. Injuries have wiped out the free safety position, with starter Ko Simpson lost for the year. His backup Jim Leonhard is also injured, so starting SS Donte Whitner will be moved to the deep middle this week.

Buffalo’s D suffered another blow last week when MLB Paul Posluszny was lost for the year with a broken arm. Cover-2 schemes rely on athleticism; in the most basic cover-2 packages the corners jam the WRs and then release them to safeties who cover the deep thirds. The key to making the cover-2 click is an athletic MLB who can drop deep and cover the deep middle.

Buffalo has lost two thirds of its deep shell and has leaked big pass plays despite the bend-but-don’t break coverage. The Bills have surrendered an NFL-worst 18 pass plays of 20 yards or more. That’s 4.5 per game! What’s worse, with Whitner moving deep the strong safety spot will be manned by Bryan Scott, an ‘06 Saints backup who was signed just three weeks ago.
With all the duct tape and bailing wire holding the secondary together, the Bills have a poor rush to protect them. Buffalo has only four sacks in their four games. Only three teams have fewer.

So how do you attack a scheme like this? Where it’s most vulnerable — in the intermediate and deep middle. Look for the tight ends to get lots of work on deep ins and outs against backup MLB John DiGiorgio and the newbie SS Scott. With Buffalo likely playing a lot of three deep coverage to guard against bombs, look for an “inside-out” game plan from Jason Garrett. Send the tight ends deeper and work the receivers on lots of short and intermediate crossing routes, where they will get matchups on the Bills’ outside linebackers.

Tony Romo will get his chances to scan the field because the Cowboys’ line will stress the Bills’ front. Buffalo has gone with speed, just as Chicago and St. Louis have. There’s not a lineman on Buffalo’s front four over 300 lbs. The Cowboys started slowly against both other teams because the Bears and Rams used a lot of overloaded fronts. I don’t think Buffalo will do this, because the Bills’ cornerbacks are not strong in man coverage. Besides, the Bills won’t want to isolate their strong safety on Witten without help.

Consequently, I think Dallas might open passing but will quickly pound at the Buffalo front. The Bills have allowed 100 rushing days to Travis Henry, Willie Parker and Lawrence Maroney already. Marion Barber has gotten the better yards but I’m sure he and Julius Jones are both eager to get their carries against the Buffalo front seven.

Friday: Buffalo vs. the Dallas D and Special Teams.
 
TroyStacks said:
they aren't the best in the nfc you will see soon enough it dfixed for favres exit believe me. this tem has enough talent to beat anyone and have a conspiracy behind it. the nfls poster boy will go out with a superbwl win. the biggest underdog in a superbowl ever and they will win it. watch and see. future bet that then give me 20% february 5th or whatever t is....
Click to expand...

Tell you what, I'll put $5 on it and when GB loses in the playoffs to Dal, you can mail me a crisp George Washington. If they win, I'll split 50-50 and use my 50% to buy you a beer. Deal? :shake:
 
Here is the rest of that writeup by Rafael Vela, including prediction. Take what you want from it, but this guy has been on point when it comes to the Cowboys.

When Buffalo has the Ball

The Bills finally won against the Jets last week behind rookie QB Trent Edwards. Edwards appears more decisive than veteran J.P. Losman. Though he and Losman have almost the exact same number of attempts and their completion percentages are similar, Edwards averages a yard and a half more per attempt and has been sacked less than half as often. Edwards had a disciplined game versus New York, hitting 79% of his throws.

That said, Buffalo’s passing attack rates as the 31st best in the league. The Jets game was the only breakout game for the Buffalo QBs and receivers, raising the question of whether Edwards is bringing the Bills attack into focus or whether the Jets secondary is poor.

The Jets effort aside the Buffalo passing offense has been poor. The Bills had just 261 passing yards in their first three games, less than 90 per game. Opponents have been very successful doubling WR Lee Evans, the Bills one blue chip wideout. The diminutive Evans has blazing speed and is fast in and out of his cuts. Without a consistent second threat — former Cowboys castoff Peerless Price is the #2 — Evans has only averaged 9.2 yards per reception after averaging 15.5 yards per his first three seasons.

The Cowboys will certainly give corners Jacques Reeves and Terence Newman help. If they can eliminate big plays the Bills will be hard pressed to consistently mount drives. Buffalo is averaging just over 10 points a game this year and has a high of 17.

Rookie RB Marshawn Lynch has been the team’s most consistent weapon. Though he’s averaging a so-so 3.8 yards per carry behind the team’s giant offensive line, Lynch has given the Bills a respectable rushing attack. Buffalo invested heavily in G Derrick Dockery and RT Langston Walker in the offseason. They and emerging star LT Jason Peters give Buffalo a line almost as big as Dallas’.

The weakness for Dallas’ run defense has been up the middle. Chris Canty and Marcus Spears get little mention but they have responded well to the new scheme. They and OLBs Demarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer have kept wide runs under control. Look for Buffalo to hammer up the middle, as every Dallas opponent has done this year.

Special Teams

This game will match two of the best punters in Buffalo’s Brian Moorman and Dallas’ Mat McBriar. When Dallas punts they will need a healthy Keith Davis to anchor their coverage. Davis is an inside runner on the punt team, lining up just left of snapper L.P. Ladouceur and taking a central lane. Last week the Rams’ Dante Hall returned a punt for a touchdown, cutting up field in the lane Davis would have occupied.
This week the Cowboys face Roscoe Parrish, who boasts a 33.3 yard return average (which includes a 74 yard touchdown return). Dallas could surrender lots of field position if Davis’ can’t return.

Prediction:

Trap game?

Maybe, if Dallas is dreaming of New England. But which of the Cowboys’ performances this year suggests a letdown? The Cowboys offense has been consistently good while the defense has gotten steadily better every game.
The Cowboys are outscoring Buffalo by 28 points a game. Think of all the things Buffalo will have to do right and the Cowboys will have to do wrong to eliminate that gap.

Dallas is a slow starting team, but so is Buffalo. The Bills have just 14 points in their games before halftime.

Buffalo surprised New England two games ago, taking a 7-0 lead before falling 38-7. They’ll be sky high for their first Monday Night game in eons, but the Cowboys simply have more weapons.

Wade wants this, so Dallas should be prepared.

Dallas 30, Buffalo 10
 
TroyStacks said:
haha deal
Click to expand...

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:cheers:
 
bump.....a lot of good stuff in here about tonights matchup. Thought some of it could be of some use.
 
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