Week 5 Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Oct 6 Thu 2022

07:15 PM
301Indianapolis Colts+3
-110		O 43½
-105
302Denver Broncos+1 Markets-3
-110		U 43½
-115
Oct 9 Sun 2022

08:30 AM
451New York Giants+7½
-110		O 41½
-110
452Green Bay Packers

+1 Markets		-7½
-110		U 41½
-110
12:00 PM
453Seattle Seahawks+4
-115		O 44
-105
454New Orleans Saints+1 Markets-4
-105		U 44
-115
12:00 PM
455Houston Texans+7
+100		O 44½
-115
456Jacksonville Jaguars+1 Markets-7
-120		U 44½
-105
12:00 PM
457Pittsburgh Steelers+14
-115		O 47½
-110
458Buffalo Bills+1 Markets-14
-105		U 47½
-110
12:00 PM
461Chicago Bears+7
-120		O 43
-110
462Minnesota Vikings+1 Markets-7
+100		U 43
-110
12:00 PM
463Tennessee Titans-3
+100		O 42½
-110
464Washington Commanders+1 Markets+3
-120		U 42½
-110
12:00 PM
465Miami Dolphins-3
-117		O 44
-110
466New York Jets+1 Markets+3
-103		U 44
-110
12:00 PM
467Los Angeles Chargers-3
-105		O 49½
-110
468Cleveland Browns+1 Markets+3
-115		U 49½
-110
12:00 PM
469Detroit Lions+3
-120		O 47
-110
470New England Patriots+1 Markets-3
+100		U 47
-110
03:05 PM
471San Francisco 49ers-5
-110		O 39½
-110
472Carolina Panthers+1 Markets+5
-110		U 39½
-110
03:25 PM
473Philadelphia Eagles-5½
-115		O 49½
-110
474Arizona Cardinals+1 Markets+5½
-105		U 49½
-110
03:25 PM
475Dallas Cowboys+5½
-112		O 45½
-110
476Los Angeles Rams+1 Markets-5½
-108		U 45½
-110
07:20 PM
477Cincinnati Bengals+3½
-120		O 47½
-115
478Baltimore Ravens+1 Markets-3½
+100		U 47½
-105
 
I told my buddy yesterday I should just blindly bet all dogs ATS as it's easier than thinking. But I don't see a bunch I can make much of a case for. Short numbers for NE & Tenn jumped out but depends on Detroit's injuries. If they are healthy I could see them scoring at a clip that NE can't keep up with.
 
You gotta think NO can clean it up at home vs SEA. Mistakes and penalties, no AK, No Thomas…start Andy again if those guys come back and see what it is
 
twinkie13 said:
You gotta think NO can clean it up at home vs SEA. Mistakes and penalties, no AK, No Thomas…start Andy again if those guys come back and see what it is
Click to expand...
SEA after a 3 pt win three time zones away now at NO the next week. Not sure their travel schedule but seems like NO can name the score
 
Counter to that is NO is coming back from their own travel to London. I’d definitely want to know the status of AK and Thomas before I got involved with that one.
 
- Indy-Denver - hard to touch with both teams banged up and coming off losses. Not sure who wins although my fantasy teams are rooting hard for Denver.
- Giants-Green Bay (london) - You can move the ball on the ground against both these teams, and both will want to run the ball. Like the under 41 for that reason. Side is tight.
- Pitt-Buffalo - Revenge angle for the Bills. Pickett makes his first start. No Watt has meant defense is susceptible for Pitt. At +14 this is likely the biggest dog Tomlin has ever been. They were +12 against the Chiefs last year and were blown out of the building. Something along the lines of 33-17 covers. Steelers just blew a 10 point lead to Zach Wilson, who btw is a year younger than Pickett. Big number early in the year but 'm inclined to lay the 14.
- LAC-Cleveland - Browns coming off a bad loss to Atlanta, Chargers hung on to win at Houston. Browns were getting beat through the air until last week, when they got bludgeoned by the run. Meanwhile Chargers are getting run on, which is what the Browns want to do. Can see over the 47.5 in play.
- Chicago-Minny - Bears run and get run on. Vikings more balanced. Hard to back an over in any Bears/Giants/Falcons game. Probably a pass on this one.
- Detroit-NE - Not sure who the QB is in New England yet, but I'm not sure it matters. Healthy dose of 37 & 38 coming. Also not sure who's playing for the Lions yet. Teams are moving the ball on the Pats, but I think they try to take the air out of the ball and grind out a 40 min TOP win. I'll lay the 3.
- Seattle-NO - Geno and company off a thrilling shootout but the back to back trips to the east time zone have to be taking a toll. Saints at least get to come home. I think they welcome seeing a bottom five defense and cover the -5.5.
- Miami-NYJ - Teddy gets the start, and he just wins games. Jets off a win but a still pretty up and down. Miami -3 for me.
- Atlanta-Tampa - Falcons take their running circus to Tampa, who's getting a bit pissed off back to back home losses. Tom has his weapons back and is starting to look good again. They're also still good against the run. I like them to cover -8.5.
- Tenny-Wash - Both teams have been decent against the run but are getting thrown on. Both teams lost their up and coming rookie WR. I'm interested to see if Robinson plays for WFT and what he might add. Probably staying away from this one.
- Houston-Jax - Texans showed some life late last week and took both games from the Jags last year. This is a measuring stick game for Jacksonville, they gave a good account in Philly and are expected to take care of business this week. I just don't know if laying over a touchdown is worth the risk. Pass.
- San Fran-Carolina - Niners defense showed out but now they go across country on short rest. Panthers have been getting CMac going lately. This is their fourth home game in the first five weeks, so there's some urgency here for them. Niners have been funky on the road this year. I kinda like taking the +6.5.
- Dallas-LAR - Sounds like Dak is going to wait another week or two before returning. I think it puts them in a better position since defense has been the team's identity so far. Rams played OK on D against the Niners but their offense is just out of kilter and the OL just got dominated. Now Micah and DLaw come to town. I think +4.5 is the choice although Rams might win by 3.
- Philly-Ari - Wondering if the Cards turned a corner with their win at Carolina. Philly is just rolling along but its more in spurts than a continuous pounding. They've scored points in just 5 of the last 12 quarters, which is unusual. I'll pass on this one.
- Cincy-Baltimore - Bengals have gotten their act together and now go to Baltimore who they hung 41 on TWICE last year. Ravens do not appear to have fixed their pass D issues. Over 48.5 and Bengals +3 seem to be very hard to pass up.
- Las Vegas-KC - Much like the Bengals, the Chiefs just boat-raced the Raiders last year, winning by a combined 89-23. Has that much changed since last year? Chiefs only TD pass in the KC game last year was from Mahomes to JOSH GORDON. Over 51 and Chiefs -7 seem like the only way to go.
 
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This is the 1st time since they've been keeping track of point spreads that the Steelers are at least +14 point dogs. Last team to do so.
 
Bills game is an interesting one to me. Coming off a huge emotional road win to face the Steelers @ home. Rookie qb first road start facing a defense that should be getting a couple more players back. Secondary has been getting shuffled but they've survived. Rookie cb Elam played a great game vs Balty. Benford may be back. Oliver may be back to a front four that even without him has been generating a ton of pressure without blitzing. I'd expect Pitt to lean heavily on the run game, but they are in TROUBLE if they can't get into short yardage 3rd downs.

On the other side of the ball we have an offense that is very much still finding it's identity. 7 turnovers in 4 games has to be concerning for Buffalo, but they are making great improvements in other areas. They couldn't have had better clock management vs Balty, which was great to see after the Miami debacle. Injuries have now hit the offense, and I think it may affect this week's game plan more than ppl may think.

Crowder broke his leg, which really offensively isn't much of a loss as McKenzie has settled into the slot spot. Special teams is affected though-he's the pr and with Hyde already out that likely means rookie Shakir would take over punt returning duties. McKenzie would be the kick returner normally but is in concussion protocol- also as the only established healthy slot wr I highly doubt he's back there. That leaves Cook at kr.

I think Buffalo wants to go into this one and play sound turnover free football. Pitt has already struggled vs the run and it'll be trouble if Haywood can't go. At the same time I think you may see the Bills slow it down and look to run a little. Waiting to see what's up with all the secondary injuries for Pitt as well because if Minka is out Diggs might go off.


Total looks high af I just don't get it. Bills defense has been playing great and I don't see how the Steelers put up 17. You know they aren't trying to throw Pickett to the wolves- I expect run, run, run with some misdirection. Field position game for as long as they can keep it within 2 scores and hope for a special teams turnover or something. As of right now I think the Steelers tt u16.5 is the best looking wager.
 
I'd be careful playing on jax and fading chargers - in the event that game was just a one off , a mirage so to speak where one team just didn't show up as the chargers have been known to do........if we take that game away how do we assess the teams ? jax lost to the great washington redskins and let wentz throw for 300, beat a team in indy that they just match up well with and kind of own so that's not a resume i'd be touting to back jacksonville at a line of 7.5.....we are one year removed from the texans winning fairly easy with the same roster by in large for both teams

chargers have looked absolutely fantastic outside of 1 game - and people saying they horrible. I'm not going to overrate injuries they are a much more well rounded team then the browns in my estimation. It's a bad matchup with the browns run game but i'd lean chargers.

Another game i'm eyeing is rams vs cowboys - both have not impressed me but cowboys more so. Boys have looked very mediocre and gotten by beating mediocre to bad teams aand if the rams that were up on the falcons by 28 points shows up they should cover.
 
EL CAPO said:
I'd be careful playing on jax and fading chargers - in the event that game was just a one off , a mirage so to speak where one team just didn't show up as the chargers have been known to do........if we take that game away how do we assess the teams ? jax lost to the great washington redskins and let wentz throw for 300, beat a team in indy that they just match up well with and kind of own so that's not a resume i'd be touting to back jacksonville at a line of 7.5.....we are one year removed from the texans winning fairly easy with the same roster by in large for both teams

chargers have looked absolutely fantastic outside of 1 game - and people saying they horrible. I'm not going to overrate injuries they are a much more well rounded team then the browns in my estimation. It's a bad matchup with the browns run game but i'd lean chargers.

Another game i'm eyeing is rams vs cowboys - both have not impressed me but cowboys more so. Boys have looked very mediocre and gotten by beating mediocre to bad teams aand if the rams that were up on the falcons by 28 points shows up they should cover.
Click to expand...
I've been looking at the Texans & ML. Could be a spot where Jax could come out flat and Houston sneaks a win before going and getting crushed @ LV. Houston has found something with Pierce and with Cooks/Collins I think they could move the ball. They've been in every game outside of last week, but just like any bad team they blew leads in every one of them. Just looked back and prior to facing the Chargers they were outscored 30-0 in the fourth quarter. I wouldn't be shocked if Jax won & covered but I'm not betting on it.

I agree about the Chargers and think they roll the Browns here. Everyone's expecting Chubb to just run wild but he's the 1 person they have to stop. Browns are another bad 4thq team and haven't played a team of the Chargers caliber yet this season. Statement win for Herbert before they go and do something dumb like lose to Denver haha.

I think the scheduling & situation favor Rams HEAVY but right now aren't they just a mediocre team? Kupp is unreal, but everyone else unimpressive. Might be overthinking but to me the obvious thing most will think is fade Dallas off 2 divisional wins with look ahead next game vs Eagles. I think they are playing harder for Rush & the defense is good enough to give Stafford some trouble. The Rams can totally fall to 2-3 & still have a 10 win season. Rush hasn't thrown a pick yet so he's due but then again the Rams got 4 turnovers off Buffalo and still lost by 21. I lean Dallas but not sure I can stomach it.
 
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