Week 5 CFB w/writeups.....

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
2005 Season

69-42-2 (62%)


2006 Season

Overall: 51-27-2..> (65%)

Week Days: 11-4

Ohio State OVER 10 wins (4-0)


What is up everybody? Well last week was a good one for me, and it looks like for many others. Here are some lines that just stuck out to me right away. I will lock these plays in now, and then fade, middle, or add more later. This way I ensure myself a better line on most of these plays. People often question on why I buy half of points? I do it because I bet through a local and it is only double juice. With that being said, here are just a few games that stand out to me:

Wisconsin - 10 (hook) (Pinny)

Ohio - 6 (hook...this is the are you kidding me line IMO) (BetCris)

Purdue/ND OVER 64 (Pinny)

Arizona State - 2 (pinny)

Va Tech - 8.5 (Pinny)

Cincinatti - 8 (Pinny) (also a candidate for a HUGE play)

Texas Tech PK (Betcris)

Michigan - 6 (BetCRIS)


I locked all these in within the hour. I wanted to get these down right away. Comments and contructive criticism is wanted. I will be back with writeups and additional plays throughout the week.

BOL:shake:
 
I'm not on any of those, so I'll wish you luck. Be careful betting Tech on the road. They are great to bet on at home against inferior teams, but they suck on the road -- especially against teams of like or better competition.
 
Sooners- Thanks bro. I am not too positive about that game. I just keep thinking of the A&M Army game....

Horses- Yeah I am lucky to get it at 6 but wish I could have got it at 4.5 when it opened
 
Wisconsin - 10 (hook) (Pinny) My feelings in this game a pretty simple. Wisconsin is a team that will ultimately be ranked anywhere from 15-35. Indiana is a team that should never see the top 70. This game is at Indiana but that does not mean much. Yes, Wisconsin does not have home field advantage by the Hoosiers really do not either. The Badger come into this game at 3-1. They played 3 cupcakes(smashed them all) and the lost to Big Blue last week. The Michigan game was a test, and the did play them even for 3 quarters. Mario Manningham played godly in ultimately deciding the game for Michigan. Indiana lacks a Manningham, Hart, or even a Burgess. Indiana comes into this game scuffling- back to back losses to UCONN and So. Ill. will do that to you. Bottom Line: Wisconsin tends to blow out inferior teams and I expect them to here.

Ohio - 6 (this is the are you kidding me line IMO) (BetCris) This is Ohio University I am playing and not the Buckeyes (there was some confusion with people). This line has already dropped to 5 at Pinny and at BetCRIS. I am really confused by this movement. OU is 2-2. They dominated a pretty good No Ill team and played under-rated Rutgers tough. I think the name Bowling Green is getting many people on this team- that is the only explanation I can think of. BG comes into this game 2-2. They got crushed by Kent and Wisconsin; struggled in wins vs. Buffalo (yes that Buffalo) and Florida Int. Bottom Line: OU has enough offensive power to put up a lot of points against this BG team. BG has given up 40 to Buffalo and 38 to Kent- 2 offenses who have struggled forever.



Purdue/ND OVER 64 (Pinny) This is just simple numbers in this game. Last week I said that ND and MSU would put up 80 and it was pretty close. This has all of the makings of a similar type game. Purdue has put up 60, 38, 38 and 27! The 27 was last week in a game that had bad weather. More importantly that Purdue's offensive stats is that they have given up many points to bad offenses. 35 to Indiana State, 31 to Miami OH, and 28 to Ball State. Notre Dame's offense finally looks like they have gotten their act together. They have two 40+ point games and two games of 21 or less. Both of their low point outings were against premier defenses ( Ga Tech and Michigan). The other two games were against average or below average defenses. This Purdue defense is definitely below average. Also against two good offenses, ND has surrendered many points ( 47 to Michigan and 37 to MSU). Bottom Line- Last year there was 77 points scored in this game. Neither defense has gotten better but their offenses have. I expect to see 80 in this one.

Arizona State - 2 (pinny) Well I pounded this team against Colorado and then faded them last week against CAL. I think it is about time to play this team again. ASU comes into this game looking to take some anger out on someone. They got flat out embarrassed on national TV last week. Now they get to return home and play in front of a good crowd. Oregon comes into this game after a buy week. Before the buy week was the Oklahoma error. These Duck players cannot really think they won that game can they? This is a great spot for a let down. Bottom Line: Whether Oregon deserves that win or not, they got dominated for much of the game. They got out played as a favorite and at home. ASU RB Ryan Torain should be able to put some yards up against this Oregon team ( they gave up 200+ to AP).

Va Tech - 8.5 (Pinny) Va Tech comes into this game flying under the radar again. This team continually has success but does not get a lot of run (probably because their end of season collapse every year). Though they have not played any football giants- their defense has only yielded 23 points in four games. Offensively they are getting over 30 a game. Georgia Tech comes into this game on a 3 game winning streak. Without a late hit call on Brady Quinn this team would probably be 4-0. That tough battle with ND did 2 things- 1) Ga Tech is getting a lot of love by the public 2) and Notre Dame was exposed as not being an elite team. It is hard to say a team does not have much fire power offensively when they have the best WR in CFB (Calvin Johnson) BUT they really are not that great. Bottom Line: I like Va Tech in this game. They are at home and will be ready to prove haters wrong. Victor Harris should be able to slow down Calvin Johnson. Also the DL should get enough pressure on Reggie Ball to create turnovers. I expect a close first half with Va Tech ultimately pulling away.

Cincinnati - 8 (Pinny) (also a candidate for a HUGE play) Right now this remains my favorite play on the board. Cincinnati comes into this game after suffering 3 tough losses. If you just look at the scores you really do not know what I am talking about. Well I watched them lose to Pitt, OSU, and watched some clips of the Va Tech game. First I will look at the Pitt game in which they lost 33-15. The Bearcats were in this game and their defense dominated the majority of it. They were down 7-0 at the half because of a pick 6. Another INT for 6 at the end of the game made the score look worse than it was. After Pitt they traveled to The Horseshoe and played the Buckeyes tough ( ahead at halftime but ultimately lost by 30). Last week they played Va Tech tough and again were ahead at the half. Turnovers and crucial mistakes have gave this team 3 losses instead of possibly 1 or 2 wins. Miami OH is bad( no other way to put it). They have been a fade machine for me all year (took NW and the Cuse). They have no rushing attack (leading rusher is their QB with 115 yards). This team like BG is getting to much love this year because of past success IMO. Bottom Line: Cincinnati comes into this game hungry. They have let 3 potential wins slip away in the second half's of games. Did they lose because of huge mistakes or did very good defenses take advantage of careless errors? I believe that they can afford to make the same mistakes in this game because MIA does not have the talent of an OSU or VT to take advantage of it. Moreover, The Nati comes home after 3 rough weeks while MIA is on the road for the 3 time in 4 weeks. Nati 33-17

Texas Tech PK (Betcris) There is not a lot I have to say about this game. This is a game that I may ultimately fade. I know Tech struggles on the road but A&M is not that good of a team. This game on a neutral field would probably be a 7-10 point spread. Ultimately this is still an instate game for Tech and they should win it.

Michigan - 6 (BetCRIS) This game is for the Brown Jug or something isnt it? I think there is a little too much hype on the Brown Jug thing. Michigan comes into this game with a business like attitude. This year they seem to be focused and ready to play. Every game seems like an isolated game to the Wolverines this year. They do not seem to have that typical "we are Michigan so fold" attitude. I have to give credit to Jim Tressal's bitch Lloyd Carr for having his team ready this year. I do not see Michigan slipping up at all this year. Bottom Line: Manningham, Hart, and Breaston on the turf will be way way way to much speed for this Minnesota team.



Norther Illinois - 6.5 (hook) GUYS this team is good. Yes they slipped up against Ohio but that was after a loss to the Buckeyes. This team has all of the tools to make another run at the MAC championship game. Garret Wolfe already has 828 yards on the ground. Horvath is a viable QB that lead the nation in completion percentage a year ago. Ball State is improved but they are still Ball State.



Yes I know that all of these plays are favorites BUT you have to play what you like right?


BOL all.....will respond to any comments and will add plays if I see any throughout the week
 
Well, very convincing on Cincinatti. I may add that after more research.

Nice write-ups..keep up the great work.
 
asu is -2 or +2? I like the ducks in this one. But not sure yet.
Nice day in the nfl bud!
 
Thanks BAR and good luck to you this weekend!absc- It was supposed to say + 2ADDING:Southern Miss - 5.5Alot has been said on this game. I just think people are thinking too much into this game by playing Central Florida. SPiss or whatever you want to call them is a much better team here IMO....BOL to all
 
Your writeups are good and certainly make me think some things over, which is always a good thing...

The one game that I'm not sure about is Arizona State over Oregon. I, too, was on ASU against Colorado, and then against them on Cal...but I guess I feel more like ASU beat Colorado due to Colorado being horrid, and then lost to Cal...but not because Cal is the top 5 team some thought they were, but because ASU simply hasn't played as they were expected to. I feel like Oregon is the better team, here...the only thing that is holding me back is the home-field...
 
Good stuff YesSir. I saw the Ohio U. line at -5 last night and was tempted to take it then. Just checked Pinny and it's down to 4. I'm jumping on 4 right now. Great line on the Wolverines. Us procrastinators have it at 10... 10's a no-play for me.

GL YesSir.

:Cheers:
 
YesSir - quick look, but didn't see any mention of the suspended players in your VT write-up....does this either not bother you or did you decide to play VT prior to the announcement?
 
I will respond to everyone later...Thanks all....Just real busy at work; wanted to clarify something:

Thanks BAR and good luck to you this weekend!
absc- It was supposed to say + 2

ADDING:

Southern Miss - 5.5
Alot has been said on this game. I just think people are thinking too much into this game by playing Central Florida. SPiss or whatever you want to call them is a much better team here IMO....BOL to all
 
Seabass- I do not necessarily think that Oregon is the better team in this situation. ASU is a top 40 team all together and a top 15 team at home IMO. I just do not expect Oregon to be ready to play early in this game. Call it a hangover or what, I expect them to be sluggish...Thanks and BOL

BAR- Thanks bro. I am not sure why this line is dropping? Where is the public at on this game- have not really had much time to look. I wanted to hit that Michigan game at 4.5 but when I clicked on it, it said the line has changed! ugh.

Mags- Yes, I played that game before I was aware of the suspensions. Someone else gave a pretty in depth look at this game with the suspensions. For what its worth, I understand the 2 spots getting crushed by injuries and suspensions are the teams strongest positions. I will do a lot more research on this game. BOL to you
 
YesSir, I'm with you on the Ohio, Purdue/N.D. Over and the Texas Tech games. The others look good too! Best of luck on all of your picks!
 
terpman- Thanks bro...BOL to you

Sparky- BOL to you

Troystacks- Thanks bro...>GL this week



Well Vegas caught me sleeping- I missed Tuesday's game by a half of a point and both of my plays tonight have shifted against me. With that being said, there is so many writeups on these games that I am just making my picks. I like both favorites to cover here. BOL all

Auburn - 13.5
TCU - 5.5

Both teased Auburn -7 TCU +1
 
Bottom Line: Whether Oregon deserves that win or not, they got dominated for much of the game. They got out played as a favorite and at home.

This is a completely false statement.

With all the sharp money on ASU, you might be on the right side here though.
 
GL this weekend, yessir.
with you on the purdue/nd over. msot though i missed the boat on the early lines. good job getting the value, bro.
 
rsm- Just my opinion after watching the game a few times..>BOL

Fondybagger- BOL this weekend...thanks

yanks- Thanks bro and BOL

Well I just got my balls kicked last night. Tonight I have a pretty strong play:

South Florida + 4.5 (Sports.com)
 
OFFICIAL PLAYS

Wisconsin - 6

Navy + 1.5

Ohio - 6

Cincinatti - 8

NIU - 6.5

Tech PK

Akron - 2

Michigan - 6

Zona St + 2

Texas - 45

Hawaii - 27.5 (hook)

Florida - 15.5

Tenn/Memphis OVER 46.5

Miami - 15.5

UCLA - 23.5

Nebraska - 22.5

MSU/Illinois OVER 55.5

Boise State + 4.5




And Yes I know it is a big card BUT that is how I roll soooo....


BOL to all
 
The bigger the the better!! Or, so my wife says, and I can't seem to keep her at home anymore . . . . .
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