Week 5 Card

H

HookedOnUT1

Pretty much a regular
In my first posted plays this year, I went 7-7 last week but was carried by a 5-1 record on big bets to finish the week at +13 units.

Here's how the card is looking right now. Would love any and all feedback, as these are numbers-based (any adjustments due to other factors that I am aware of are noted.

Big Bets (6 units):
Florida State -21.5 (still waiting to see if I can get it at the 21 I saw earlier this week)
Arizona +10
Florida -12.5

Medium Bets (3 units):
Central Michigan +24
Oregon -37 (moved from a big bet based on some things I've read on here, as well as the line moving closer to my numbers)
Pitt -6
Alabama -15.5
Southern Miss +28
Stanford -10
Western Kentucky +3
UNLV -2.5
USC +6

Small Bets (1 unit, unless otherwise noted):
Wake Forest +28.5
Texas St. +11
New Mexico St. +17.5
Western Kentucky ML +120 (2 units)
Louisiana Tech ML +110 (2 units)
USC ML +190 (2 units)
Arizona ML +310 (2 units)

Also looking at Western Kentucky/Navy Over and Wyoming/Texas State under -- any thoughts?
 
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Schrute said:
GL this week

Solid start last week too

Also welcome to the forum
Click to expand...

Thank you Schrute. Hoping that I can build on things. Been a lurker for years, but just started numbers-capping this year. It's been fun getting on that side and trying to find value.
 
In an effort to clean up my first post, I'll give my limited thoughts here:

Big Bets (6 units):
Florida State -21.5 -- hoping to catch the 21 I saw earlier in the week. I have the Noles as being a 36 point favorite.

Arizona +10 -- Love how this sets up, with 2 weeks off for the Cats and UW has Stanford next week. My numbers also show that Zona should be the favorite; will play a 2 unit ML as well.

Florida -12.5 -- Florida's defense is certainly what leads my numbers to hear, but I was also impressed with what Murphy brought to the table for the Gators.

Medium Bets (3 units):
Central Michigan +24 -- my numbers actually show this to be a big play, but just barely. As a result, I've knocked it down a level as it's hard to put that much faith in a bad team.

Oregon -37 -- Hate laying this many points. As noted above, I moved this to a medium bet based on a few things.

Pitt -6 -- That Duke game was one that the Panthers let get much closer than it should have been. Feel that this is a better number as a result.

Alabama -15.5 -- Ole Miss has two weeks to prepare for this, but are they really better than the Aggies -- not to mention the home-field advantage A&M had. We all know that was a 14 point game (21 if Yeldon doesn't fumble).

Southern Miss +28 -- Golden Eagles with 2 weeks off. I played Boise last week and won, but like this spot and the numbers for Southern Miss.

Stanford -10 -- numbers say this should be a big play, but this sets up as a trap game for the Cardinal. That said, I think Wazzou is getting too much credit.

Western Kentucky +3 -- numbers also say this should be a big play, but just barely. That said, I made it a medium play with the line, as well as 2 units on the ML.

UNLV -2.5 -- some other factors besides the numbers that I like too (schedule primarily).

USC +6 -- strength vs. strength here. Hoping USC's defense can get them the W as my numbers suggest. Actually a big play, but seems to be the theme this week. I'm knocking a few plays down based on factors besides my numbers.

Small Bets (1 unit, unless otherwise noted):
Wake Forest +28.5 -- my numbers say medium play, but feel that Clemson could try to lay it on after last week's game vs. NC State

Texas St. +11 -- Kicking around playing the under here too. Numbers suggest a medium play, but don't know how much of a letdown after Texas State's trip to Lubbock.

New Mexico St. +17.5 -- San Diego State hasn't exactly torn it up this year, and I'm getting over 2 touchdowns and a field goal? I'll take it, although only for a small amount.

Western Kentucky ML +120 (2 units) -- see above

Louisiana Tech ML +110 (2 units) -- wrong team favored here based on my numbers.

USC ML +190 (2 units) -- see above

Arizona ML +310 (2 units) -- see above
 
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like several, gl and you will love this site. Many good people here that know their stuff
 
mrob said:
like several, gl and you will love this site. Many good people here that know their stuff
Click to expand...

Thanks mrob, and I definitely love this place. I've tailed people on here for years (and still do), and I hope that I can just get into the same ballpark as them. Gl to you as well.
 
Up and down week. Feel like the Noles could have easily covered, but just sloppy. All in all, a positive week, but some big whiffs too. Here's the recap:

Big Bets (6 units):
Florida State -21.5 L
Arizona +10
Florida -12.5

Big Bet recap: 1-2, -6 units

Medium Bets (3 units):
Central Michigan +24 L
Oregon -37 W - should have kept as a big bet, haha.
Pitt -6 W
Alabama -15.5, added 2 more units at -13. Both W's for a total of 5 units
Southern Miss +28 L
Stanford -10 W
Western Kentucky +3 W
UNLV -2.5 W
USC +6 L (bye bye Kiffin)

Medium Bet recap: 6-3, +11 units (counting both Bama plays)

Small Bets (1 unit, unless otherwise noted):
Wake Forest +28.5 L
Texas St. +11 W
New Mexico St. +17.5 W
Western Kentucky ML +120 (2 units) W
Louisiana Tech ML +110 (2 units) -- by the time I went to bet this one, the line had shifted to the point where I didn't like the value. No play.
USC ML +190 (2 units) L
Arizona ML +310 (2 units) L

Small Bet recap: 3-3, +1.4 units

Overall recap: 10-8, +6.4 units
 
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