Week 5 B1G Thread...

B.A.R.

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Alright, try and get this up a little earlier and get some more content this week...

First, I'll look back at some boxes/thoughts from yesterday...


UNLV @ Ohio State

Ohio State came out passing and passing and more passing. There was one point in 2nd quarter I looked and they had 5 rushing plays. That was something else. Overall they only had 40-190 on ground and played three QB's. The young kids looked good from what I was told, as you would expect from them. UNLV scored enough to easily get the cover though.

Rutgers @ Nebraska

What an awful game. Tanner Lee barely broke 100 yards and gave Rutgers 10 points as well. There was exactly 500 yards offense combined. That is pretty gross.

UCF @ Maryland

I am not surprised Maryland lost at all. I expected a battle. They got bulldozed though on the scoreboard. They only had 197 total yards (compared to 428 for UCF). The running stats were 250-42. I cannot figure out how the time of poss was nearly even in this game.

Ga Southern @ Indiana
IU rolled by 35 points. The stats were not horrible for GSU though other than 3 fumbles and a lot of penalties. The Hoosiers only had 2 drives of any length for TD's here. The rest were a bomb, fumble return, punt return and short fields.

Michigan @ Purdue

Michigan defense dominated again and is back to #1 nationally. The yards in 2h were 249-1...yes Purdue had 1 yard. I figured Purdue for some points on trickeration and funky formations and they did that early but once again Don Brown solved an offense pretty quickly. Now, on the other side...that will merit a post of its own at another time. I am just glad that they finally used their TE's and the middle of the field. Stubborn is as stubborn does.

Brohm after the game..


Brohm said he believes his team learned their lesson.

"I think we learned that we need to keep our mouth shut and just work hard and play football," he said after the game. "It's good to feel confident and feel good about yourself and I don't want to taper it too much but I think we were feeling a little too confident."


Notre Dame @ Michigan State

As has been said throughout the summer..MSU will struggle against real passing teams. They finally faced a team with an ability to forward pass this week. Also, Lewerke will make spectacular plays and give away points as well with turnovers. This game summed up them to a tee. They played very well on offense at times but this was a mismatch from the beginning.

Now, some will look at this boxscore and think 'wtf'...

Notre Dame did what they had to do early in the game and got key stops when they had to as well. Once the game was all but over late 3rd at 35-10 Michigan State piled on 234 yards of offense to 73 from the Irish. Before that drive stretch, Notre Dame led in yardage 282-262...

This is what we call 'Defeat with Dignity' up in East Lansing. The last two drives were for 153 yards from Sparty as they tried their hardest to get to 26 points and make the score look respectable. Down 38-10, they scored and went for 2 points in an exactly 4 score game. This is their new mantra. They might lose but they are not going to get throttled at home. They would have gone for 2 as well of they scored on that last drive before time ran out.

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Okay, all that is fine but Dantoni had his young star QB out there nearly getting killed a few times that last drive. He already broke his leg last year and has a reckless style with his great running ability. I guess it was all worth it to punch in a few scores late.


--------------------------

This week...


Nebraska at Illinois in an 8pm showdown...

Northwestern at Wisconsin 11am local start...

Maryland travels to Minnesota...

Indiana travels to Happy Valley...remember last years wild 4th qtr....

Iowa heads to Michigan State off the backbreaker. Michigan St Super Bowl is next week.

Ohio St heads east to play Ohio St East in a night game in Jersey...

Michigan has a bye week.

Purdue also with a bye week.
 
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Fwiw, after 4 weeks...my B1G Teams rated 1-14 (no divisions)

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Michigan
4. Wisconsin

5. Indiana
6. Iowa

7. N'Western
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan State

10. Maryland
11. Purdue
12. Nebraska

13. Rutgers
14. Illinois


Yes, those are specific tiers.
 
So they lost Piggy, then they lost Hill and Henderson has a hurt wheel too. Team has been qb injury cursed for a while now.

I'll be eying Terps TT under vs Gophers this week given their QB situation.

Also eying Huskers TT under at Illini.
 
I was really hoping to see a 10 on Minnesota, but 12.5 was all that was there once I got online. Considered laying it but will just see how the line moves the next couple days.
 
Thanks for the solid info amigo. I hope you don't mind if a little finds its way into my Sparty article if I cover them :barman:
 
Sparty up to -3.5 wtf? Why? I don't see how Iowa doesn't control the run game and also get production from Stanley, while on the flipside forcing Lewerke to win for Sparty
 
Sparty up to -3.5 wtf? Why? I don't see how Iowa doesn't control the run game and also get production from Stanley, while on the flipside forcing Lewerke to win for Sparty

Lots to think about on this game...we were discussing it in length earlier...

More thoughts after I run some errands...
 
Oh, as a Michigan fan, thank goodness Purdue is off the schedule for awhile...

No need for fear of season-ending or long-term injuries playing them...
 
Iowa had its intestines ripped out Saturday night. How in the world they get off the mat after that is beyond me. Can't run fast enough from the game with Sparty.
 
Where's the discussion? Would like to read it. Not sure how to assess Sparty's performance vs ND. If you just take out the turnovers and penalties...
 
Iowa had its intestines ripped out Saturday night. How in the world they get off the mat after that is beyond me. Can't run fast enough from the game with Sparty.

The question imo is: is Iowa's psychology the decisive factor or is Iowa's control of line of scrimmage with superior offensive line against anemic Sparty pass rush and weak d-line
 
Rutgers WR/PR/KR/everything Janarion Grant DNP last week, said to be back this week? Rutgers also lost CB Blessuan Austin with torn ACL, he led the team last year with 14 pbu (significantly more than anyone else on the team).
 
Where's the discussion? Would like to read it. Not sure how to assess Sparty's performance vs ND. If you just take out the turnovers and penalties...

They were dominated by the domers.

Worthless stops and worthless yards after the game was decided.

Iowa is no Notre Dame, though. And the domers UGA loss, which could easily have been a win, is a flattering loss of a sort at this point.
 
They were dominated by the domers.

Worthless stops and worthless yards after the game was decided.

Iowa is no Notre Dame, though. And the domers UGA loss, which could easily have been a win, is a flattering loss of a sort at this point.

I hate to say this about MSU... but everyone needs to factor that into any capping for any team but especially this one...

1. Coach Mike loves these moral victories now. He is not dumb, making a score look better appeases their fan base

2. Lewerke should be a great stats guy period, but when they are down and he can go out and run and sling the ball around against a bend/don't break/prevent defense he will do a lot of damage.
 
Once hunt has time, I know he has some very pro-Iowa thoughts. That is what I meant by we had a discussion on it. He had some valid points towards looking at them...
 
Tomorrow Nebraska and Illinois game is something I want no part of to bet/watch/see highlights... gonna be ugly..

Minnesota could easily win 27-0 or 24-7...something like that...looking at ways to attack that game...Maryland tt under is out the door with how the total has adjusted...

I'll defer to OSU guys but the Buckeyes got their air it out game with all the QB's getting good time in last week. This feels like a game CUM lets up on his old buddy Ash a bit....tough to touch it at all, imo.

I might be looking at a halftime or full game Iowa TT...we shall see...still thinking about it...otherwise not a lot of interest from me still with the different variables...

N'Western tt over either at half or full game is almost for sure a play for me...

IU and PSU is another watch-only game for me.

I'll be around a lot tomorrow for anyone that wants to chat...
 
I like the Maryland line at +14 if it gets there. I know they're on QB 3 but it's a different thing to have all week to practice and coach a guy up versus having to play a guy in a game due to injury. And to be honest, I just haven't been impressed with Minnesota that much. I've been thinking of fading them watching two of their games (not last week) as a team that won't do much but get more publicity due to having Fleck as a coach.

Northwestern looked "Tony in Blue Chips" bad against Duke but they looked more normal against BG obviously. I was hoping they'd be closer to 17-18 in this situation because I just don't love NU on the road. I do like the under here as the series has a recent trend that way and 49 means I really need winning team to get 27 or so before I get nervous and I think these teams know each other well enough that I won't really see that.

Nebraska/Illinois screams stay away because Tanner Lee just can't not turn it over. I think Nebraska is the better team and sub a TD is nice but I'm not betting Lee on the road to cover.

I like MSU in this spot because Iowa is getting love for the two point loss but PSU dominated that game and just had bad penalties/turnover cluster luck. MSU should be fine against the teams that don't pass a ton so I even like them next week to cover UM if it gets near 20 but winning at home against an average Iowa team seems fair.

My card
Maryland +13 (2 units if 14)
MSU -2.5
Northwestern/Wisconsin U49
 
I like the Maryland line at +14 if it gets there. I know they're on QB 3 but it's a different thing to have all week to practice and coach a guy up versus having to play a guy in a game due to injury. And to be honest, I just haven't been impressed with Minnesota that much. I've been thinking of fading them watching two of their games (not last week) as a team that won't do much but get more publicity due to having Fleck as a coach.

Northwestern looked "Tony in Blue Chips" bad against Duke but they looked more normal against BG obviously. I was hoping they'd be closer to 17-18 in this situation because I just don't love NU on the road. I do like the under here as the series has a recent trend that way and 49 means I really need winning team to get 27 or so before I get nervous and I think these teams know each other well enough that I won't really see that.

Nebraska/Illinois screams stay away because Tanner Lee just can't not turn it over. I think Nebraska is the better team and sub a TD is nice but I'm not betting Lee on the road to cover.

I like MSU in this spot because Iowa is getting love for the two point loss but PSU dominated that game and just had bad penalties/turnover cluster luck. MSU should be fine against the teams that don't pass a ton so I even like them next week to cover UM if it gets near 20 but winning at home against an average Iowa team seems fair.

My card
Maryland +13 (2 units if 14)
MSU -2.5
Northwestern/Wisconsin U49

What people might not see is that MN is a very young team. Lots of underclassmen getting playing time. QB position is iffy at best and he's really just there to manage the game, but they've shown over the past several years they can run the ball with just about any guy wearing a jersey in the 50's-70's. Soph WR Johnson is a stud and had two monster games to open the season. Outside of him there hasn't been much to look at.

Where I've seen the most improvement this year already is the defense. They lost a couple guys in the secondary (Calhoun as well as Murray who now starts for the Chiefs) but Winfield is one of the best DB's in the Big Ten. Plays well in the slot when needed and can play outside too. Very sure tackler. Their LB's are above average and DL is decent (although they are thin at NT). What this team needs is experience and I've seen them get a lot better as a team over the past couple games. Sure, the competition isn't much to write home about, but they should handle Maryland this weekend. Then it's going to be interesting to see how they play against a team with a pulse.
 
I know the spot is bad for Iowa and it's probably a sucker play but I can't pass them up +3.5. Spartans will shoot themselves in the foot and find a way to lose I. It's a letdown spot for Iowa but also a bit of a deflated spot for Sparty too I think. HFA virtually nada as well.....
 
Great situation for plays against PSU and Iowa, win or lose I can't help it...it's all I know
 
Great situation for plays against PSU and Iowa, win or lose I can't help it...it's all I know
True. The problem in East Landfill is that it is a great situational play against MSU too. Then add in how important this game is for their season and it is just a game with many questions.
 
Troy Fumagalli out today for Wisconsin. Leading receiver, one of the best TEs in the conference/nation.
 
True. The problem in East Landfill is that it is a great situational play against MSU too. Then add in how important this game is for their season and it is just a game with many questions.

Pretty sure the city is East Lansing :angryoldman:

But I personally can't really buy the while look-ahead angle for Sparty. They want to make a bowl and they know that they need to beat the beatable teams like Iowa so I think they're going to be very focused on fixing their errors from last week and redeeming themselves in front of the Sparty faithful
 
Wish Bortenschlager wasn't as bad as he is because I would really like to play Maryland here off that bad loss. The season is too young for a team to swallow a loss like that and take it. Maryland got humbled and Min hasn't been challenged. But with Bortenschlager behind C it is bad. If I can get 14 or better I will throw .5u on Terps still to satisfy my morbid curiosity I have for teams that most don't want to touch.
 
Agree, can't fathom a look-ahead for MSU off a loss and with Iowa being fairly good. If MSU had won last week and if Iowa was bad, maybe their mind wanders more about Michigan, but not the way this situation is.
 
Pretty sure the city is East Lansing :angryoldman:

But I personally can't really buy the while look-ahead angle for Sparty. They want to make a bowl and they know that they need to beat the beatable teams like Iowa so I think they're going to be very focused on fixing their errors from last week and redeeming themselves in front of the Sparty faithful
Oh, I know it is East Lansing having lived 90 minutes away my whole life. It is more of a Landfill though ;).

Take away MSU's 5 year stretch of glory in their 9 years of playing CFB and the week before Michigan isn't pretty when they have had similar types of squads..

2016 Lose vs Illinois
2015 Win and cover vs IU but that was a 24-0 4th quarter of basically an even game
2009 Lose vs Wisky
2008 Lose to OSU
2007 Lose to Iowa
2006 Lose to Illinois as 25 pt favorites

None of that really matters but to illustrate when they are an average team how big the UM game is to them(it is their Super Bowl every year anyways). They literally would trade a win next week to not go to a bowl game.

But, as we said, this game today is sooooo crucial if they hope to go .500 or better this season.

Such a game to run away from to be honest from a betting perspective.
 
N'western will get to 20 or more today...

Take it for what it is worth...

That is it for me in the B1G today...
 
Well I went to put it in and it was already off the board damn it. It was +125 to
 
Oh, I know it is East Lansing having lived 90 minutes away my whole life. It is more of a Landfill though ;).

Take away MSU's 5 year stretch of glory in their 9 years of playing CFB and the week before Michigan isn't pretty when they have had similar types of squads..

2016 Lose vs Illinois
2015 Win and cover vs IU but that was a 24-0 4th quarter of basically an even game
2009 Lose vs Wisky
2008 Lose to OSU
2007 Lose to Iowa
2006 Lose to Illinois as 25 pt favorites

None of that really matters but to illustrate when they are an average team how big the UM game is to them(it is their Super Bowl every year anyways). They literally would trade a win next week to not go to a bowl game.

But, as we said, this game today is sooooo crucial if they hope to go .500 or better this season.

Such a game to run away from to be honest from a betting perspective.


An ice storm in December kept me from going there, but i'll have to take your word for it amigo.

But yeah you pretty much just listed the trash seasons, 2009 with the disciplinary issues and last year was a debacle.

Fair enough perspective though, completely valid. We'll see which perspective holds more weight with the team. Then there's also Iowa's own psychology to consider after, like Fondy said, having their intestines ripped out of them.
 
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