Week 5 AAF discussion

[spongerat]

Weird week last week, none of these teams are very consistent. At least I can say I beat all the closing lines that I bet.

What did you learn from Week 4? I still think Birm is good but not as good as I thought. They had 4 turnovers to 0 by SA, without those I think Birm would have won.

AZ is weird, losing at home to ATL.

ORL is consistent in that regardless of points the yards they put up is in the high 300s each game.

SD out gained Mem by 50 yards but still lost,



Week 5 schedule, actually in the right order this time! Also put my models initial spread and totals. I'm sure they'll throw in some screwy half points.

Birm 44
@Orlando -6

SL 40
@SD -8

Mem 39
@ATL -7

SA 44
@AZ -4

 

[D-Woww]

I think Orlando is the best team right now. I mentioned last week that Zona was being overrated bc of how great they looked week 1...Wohlford hasn't looked the same since. I would lay 6 with Orlando there. I liked Birmingham when they were projected to be the worst team in the league preseason, but I feel like the tides may have swung too far the other way. They aren't good and Luis Perez has disappointed me. Thought he was gonna be the breakout star of the league. And TRich continues to play exactly how Trich plays.

I'd take Salt Lake at that number; 8 is too much for a team led by Philip Nelson to lay

I'd take Memphis getting 7 I think; they are a better team with Mettenberger, and Atl shouldn't be laying 7

 

[spongerat]

I don't think ATL should be laying 7 based on the eye test but this is what my model spit out so we'll see how it compares to the openers, so far its been close. I think the 7 is home field advantage but last week could have really screwed things up as well. I'd be on Memphis also at 7. I think ORL should be a larger favorite being at home but again, we'll see.

 

[spongerat]

Openers are up!

Orlando -3.5
@Birm 34

SL 36
@SD -6

Mem 38.5
@ATL -2

SA 40
@AZ -2.5

Surprised the total is so low in the Orlando game. What do we think of the new version of ATL? I like SD at home but 6 is a tough line.

Low totals this week are taking away our easy unders.

 

[D-Woww]

Atl & memphis both much better than weeks 1 & 2. I lean memphis tho. Mettenberger looks good

 

[spongerat]

I like ORL -3.5, Birm has trouble putting up points but the total is scary at 34. They're thinking it'll stay low scoring which would favor Birm and their D. I think ORL finds a way to put up over 300 yards still and so I could see a final score of something like 18-12. I want to take the under but that total is so low already.

 

[D-Woww]

17-11 orlando? That sounds about right

 

[spongerat]

I also like AZ to bounce back this week. I know SA beat Birm last week but they wree still outgained. Even though AZ didn't play well they still ran the ball decently. I like AZ and the under.

 

[D-Woww]

Haha i didnt even see ut last sentence. Looks like we see the same kind of game

 

[spongerat]

Haha i didnt even see ut last sentence. Looks like we see the same kind of game

Haha good, that'll probably be a play for me. Can you really take the under though at 34? That just feels so wrong.

 

[spongerat]

I actually went back and adjusted my model and the numbers were even closer to the openers than my original projected lines. I didn't post because it was after so it would seem fake. The only one that is way off is Mem @ATL, which has a score of 16.19 to 22.40 with Atl winning by 6ish. The actual lines looks more right, and I lean Memphis too if I had to guess but maybe its an opportunity to trust my model and make a play.

 

[spongerat]

Damn better hit Orl-3.5 again, already seeing 4's and 4.5's popping up across the board.

 

[D-Woww]

fwiw the podcast I listen to weekly is predicting a Birmingham win. that game is gonna be sloppy; Birmingham has a great pass defense and all Orlando does is chuck it deep. should be a fun game. may not bet it.

to be honest, is there a better system than an under chase system? bet the under game 1, if not double up game2, if not game3.....very hard to see any scenario in which all 4 games in a weekend doesn't have at least one low scoring one

 

[spongerat]

to be honest, is there a better system than an under chase system? bet the under game 1, if not double up game2, if not game3.....very hard to see any scenario in which all 4 games in a weekend doesn't have at least one low scoring one

It works until it doesn't!

 

[spongerat]

You're right, its a good matchup, Orlando is the best pass O and Birm has the best pass D. But Orlando has the second best rush O in yards/attempt but Birm only has a mediocre rush D. What's the weather supposed to be like?

 

[D-Woww]

It works until it doesn't!

lol low and behold all 4 went over. guess this is why chase systems don't work