Week 5 1-AA Discussion

hoopsstar22

hoopsstar22

Captain of Vanzack's yacht
6-2 YTD.....

Gentlemen, lines should be coming out soon, and we've been having some great discussions on these lesser known games. Let's continue the trend, and keep winning the money.

Games I'll be looking at first....

Citadel @ Chattanooga - The Citadel, coming off a bye, has a high power O, and a top 10 D, including the Wisky game. Chattanooga is coming off a big OT win against GA Southern on the road, yet are ranked 100 on O and 73 on D.

Weber St. @ Montana - Weber St. is easily one of the bottom 6 teams in 1-AA. Montana is #1. Will there be a line? I don't know. Will it be under 40? I don't know. But still work a look to see.

Southern Illinois @ Indiana St - Potential blowout city here. S. Ill is putting up over 48 per game, #1, and hung 58 on a good D in Arky Pine Bluff. Indiana St. is a bottom 10 team across the board.


Thats my initial rundown, as I have no clue what games will have lines, nor what they will be. No need to waste time and research for a shot in the dark.

Are there any other games of significance that you guys are seeing? Let's get the discussion rolling.
 
Okay, are there ANY good I-AA teams playing any bad I-A teams this week? I don't care if the line is a PK. NDSU just made me feel like a fool last week.
 
lindetrain said:
Okay, are there ANY good I-AA teams playing any bad I-A teams this week? I don't care if the line is a PK. NDSU just made me feel like a fool last week.
Click to expand...



Yea, I suppose a team covering by 44 will do that to you. You said you were going to hit it, why didn't you?

:36_11_6:


Still no lines up yet, but that's good because I have to go to work in a few.

I'm pretty sure conference play is about to start for most, so I don't think we'll see any gross cross-division matchups.
 
I told you on Scrapbook.com (haha), I went to 5Dimes to bet +10 and it was +8 and I decided I wanted no part of that.

Your bet probably moved the line down two points...
 
Other games on the radar....

Western Carolina @ GA Southern- GA Southern is coming off a surprising loss and could put up close to 500 yards on the ground in this game.

Appalacihan State @ Elon - Against the giant killers 2 weeks in a row? You bet. Elon has a few things going for them in this one, Llyod Carr isn't their coach, Appy State just suffered their first loss in a few years and are on the road again, their starting QB is more than banged up (missed 2 games prior to Wofford game, and left in the 3rd with a bruised shoulder), and Elon has a high powered offense that could create some serious problems for that suspect Appy D. Plus, with the public looking for a rebound, the line will go our way.
 
Lines are out....

Villanova @ James Madison -6

I'm sitting here scratching my head over this one. JMU is pounding people, their only loss was at UNC in the season opener. Villanova's only loss was against Maryland, but needed a missed GW field goal to take a game into and win in OT against a pretty bad Maine team. I would be very surprised to see less than a DD win for JMU here.
 
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The Citadel -10.5 @ Chattanooga

In order for Chattanooga to keep this game competitive, they're going to have to score. I just don't see it happening. Sure, they just beat GA Southern in OT 45-38, but they were outgained by over 100yds, 4 1st downs, recovered 3 fumbles, returning 1 for a TD. They also got an INT on their own 20, which they put in for a score, and recovered an onside kick in the first quarter.

The games its self was pretty inconsistent. The Mocs were up 17-7, then down 28-17, then came back and tied the game at 38s.

If they run this hocus pocus bull shit against The Citadel, maybe they'll win another game. If not, it'll be a 20 point loss. After all, they did lose by 12 to a D2 team at home.....
 
i am trouble getting injury report news on the citadel. Can anyone else get injury report news on this matchup?

Looking at UMASS hard as they are against BC. BC played putrid last week against of all people army!!!! I think BC will be giving normal starters limited reps as they know they are going to win this game and need a full slate of healthy starters for conference play.:cheers:
 
Looking at Northwestern State as well, TT can certainly run up the points but i do not think they are looking to do so against a sub par opponent. Starters i think will be in for about 6 or 7 touchdowns. Also, TT has the inability to stop anyone, so i think northwestern state will get 14 to 21 points here. The part of this matchup that worries me are turnover's by northwestern state that give TT a short field and having 30 second drives for TD's.

Right now they have it listed at 46 i would like it closer to 49 but if it starts dipping i may bite.
 
No problem.

As for Northwestern State, I agree with you in the fact they could get the backdoor there. I may consider it at 49, but my problem is that TT beat Se Louisiana 62-0 last year, Sam Houston state 80-21 and Indiana St 63-7 the year before.

Leach isn't afraid to shit on these small schools.
 
I wasn't aware of those TT numbers, i will most definitley avoid this in all likelyhood b/c i am sure there are frustrated players on TT such as Crabtree that would likely vent frustration on a sorry northwestern state.

I am afraid to touch anything with Ok state on it after troy then the points they put up against TT and the way they did it.
 
How far does the Appy St. line need to go before you jump on it hoops? Its already up to +10 and since week 2 I havent been all that impressed with Appy. By the way, great call on the JMU line movement, its moved 6 or 7 points since you took it. As I am glad I got it before the big jump.

How often do you middle these lines, as much as some certain ones move you can get some great value on these 1-AA games early. This is a great thread, by the way, I love it and tail you on a play or 2 here and there because you seem to know far more on these teams than myself. Thanks for the info man, BOL this weekend!

:cheers:
 
Pokey-

I'm going to keep letting it go and go. I'll admit that I'm not 100% sure I still want to play it, especially if the rest of the games will be coming out later, there may be some better plays than this. It's sitting at 12.5 now, and I think it'll keep going up. But like I said, I may not play it.

Kyle-

I probably wouldn't play it that high, but who knows, they were 15.5 point favorites against Coastal last week, and beat them by almost 30.
 
Also, Pokey, to answer your question about middling, last week was the first time I did it, in the Hawaii game, because of the injury to Brennan. It seems that 1-AA games go one way or the other, at least from what I see. Either the favorite blows them out, or the dog wins, or takes it into OT. But I don't know, I'm still fairly new to this ordeal.

Which leads me to another point, be careful tailing me. To be honest, I'm using this thread more for my benefit, than to provide others with plays. it may sound selfish, but I like using it to keep my thought process in check. It makes me look things over, and over again, and make me confident about my own play.

It blows that the lines move so fast, because of the low limits on these games, and if you're not right there waiting, they'll shoot so fast.
 
lindetrain said:
Is it now? I'll have to look at Bomar's boys...
Click to expand...


Sam Houston has the O to hang with these guys. If they can get a few stops on D, this may turn into a very interesting game. I think +29 was the best we'll see it, but hopefully a few public dumb asses will hit OSU, and get us something good.
 
I added it for +28, why not...I actually bet a full unit on this as opposed to the 1/2 units I bet before. You have to feel good about nearly beating ND State on the road (they were sick last year, and SHSU was up until 8 ticks left), and you know they've got some good leadership at QB.

The Pokes play no D, and you know that whole place is going crazy after this whole debacle with Gundy & Carlson last week...also a sandwich off the big win and a couple big games coming up.
 
I added Colgate -7 today to my plays. 1/20 of a normal unit as usual on my fcs stuff. Here is what I see.

Last year at fordham , Colgate pulled out a can of whoopass on the rams. They won that game 46-3. Colgate returns 8 starters from tht offense and has had a lot of success running the ball this year while they have slowly improved in the passing game with alex relph. The raiders anemic offense early in the year woke up last week against a decent Dartmouth team and I think with confidence in the qb spot and Jordan Scott running the ball that fordham will have a tough time stopping the colgate offense. Colgate has proven that they can whip this fordham team and if you look at their common opponent of Albany this year you will see that colgate played the superior game of the two. I don't think they whip fordham 46-3 but I don't need them to. already bet this but curious if you have thoughts on the game hoopsstar or anyone else.
 
I actually got JMU at -7.5 before it sky rocketed. If it gets to 14+ somehow, I dont see any reason not to middle it. That basically makes it a win/ tie situation with the chance to win both, and that is an easy decision.

I completely agree with your reasoning for posting these things for your own good. I look alot more into games when I actually do writeups on them and I often sway my opinion a pretty good bit to get me on or off a game I like. I dont mind flat out tailing someone on stuff like this, its fun actually, I was pumped when I got home from the MTSU game and saw Morgan St in OT last week. I figure I might as well tail ya til I lose the profit I have made so far betting 1AA games, haha... Good luck this weekend... How far do you think Appy st is gonna go? 13.5 now, startin to look sexy
 
Ummm, why is UMass +22 getting no play in this thread? This team is too damn good to go into BC and get absolutely killed...they almost beat Navy last year.
 
Kyle-

Looks like a great reason to take Colgate to me. I'm unfamiliar with both, as I haven't looked into any of either's games, but I may give it a view later today.

Linde -
Umass just isn't giving me a hard on right now. They don't have great numbers, and haven't played any decent teams yet. Perhaps they are playing down to the level of the competition. BC just went through the motions against Army, but UMass is an instate school, and there could be a little more adversity towards them. But on paper, UMass is just looking like an average team that is over ranked.
 
Umass is overranked?? They went 13-2 last year losing to Navy by 1 and Appy State in the Championship by 11(it was a lot closer game then that, sophomore QB Coen had a horrible game). This team could be in D-1 football right now if they had the stadium to handle it. They are 4-0 and have outscored their opponents 149-67 this year. Army (D-1) was catching 26 last week at BC and Umass (D-II) is catching 22 this week. D1 program 4 pts worse then DII program?? Umass is gettin a little respect here but not enough in my opinion. I think they keep this game relatively close, loving the +22.
 
Adding...

Montana -23

This one might not be for the faint of heart. I locked it in when I first saw it based on my initial matchup hunches. But the more I look at it, the more this game could be closer than I'd like. History has shown these two teams play each other close, for what reason, I don't know. Weber St. has benefited from garbage plays, kick returns, and good breaks. With that said, they played 3 QB's in last week's 21-5 loss to Montana St, at home, on homecoming. 1 Dude was 1-5 with 2 int's returned for TD's. This team statistically ranks 100 or worse in nearly every category imaginable. I like to think Montana get up for their homecoming, and puts a hurting on this team.


Georgia Southern -8.5

I look for Georgia Southern to be pissed about the loss to Chattanooga, and run for over 400 yards on W. Carolina. E. Kentucky pounded them with the run. They beat former D2 Presbyterian, which are heavily concentrated on the pass and boast 0 D, 33-20, with the game tied 20-20 in the 4th Q.
 
Georgia Southern is intriguing. Like the angle to go along with the stats in that puppy. How much are you folks betting on these games ?? These lines seem to move a ton. I know my $57.50 bets aren't moving anything. Just wondering , because if we discuss games and then you hit it before i do .... the line gets away. i mean if you folks are betting a crapload.
 
Slug -

I said looking at the team on paper, they are over ranked. I know that doesn't mean anything, but it makes me uncomfortable. Their D is top 20, but their O is just in the middle of the pack, and those are both without playing any 1-A teams, or upper level AA teams yet. They could very well cover the spread against BC, but I'm just not interested in the game personally. just because BC got wasted the night before Army, and pulled a Varsity Blues titty bar excursion, maybe they won't do that against UMass, maybe they will. Just no interest for me.

But this is what makes this thread awesome, the discussion. You, Frankie, and Linde should talk the game though, and cover all the angles. I'm not trying to post my plays to boost my "online ego." I just want to record my thoughts on particular games/plays, and see if they were true, and the team covers. If not, it will become a valuable tool in analyzing what I missed, so that I may not make the mistake in the future. Like I said before, it may sound selfish, but I'm doing this for me.

Kyle-

You'd be surprised how much that $57 bet moves the line. That's all I'm putting on these games, thus year at least. Although I did have a good bit more on the Coastal/Del State game in week 1. But I see the lines move directly after I put my bet in. I click submit, then go back into the wager menu, and at least 90% of the time immediately after I bet, the line moves 1.5 that way. The Citadel for instance, went from 10.5 to 12.5 immediately after I played it. Why, I have no idea. Maybe there were 50 others that hit it at exactly the same time, but I just think the limits are so low that the lines move instantly.
 
Wow, They must not get too much action on those games if $50-$60 bets move them 1-2 points... Thats crazy... I always wondered why I would read you posts and then go check out the lines and they be 2-3 points higher. ha. Interesting.
 
FWIW, I couldnt decide which game to take tonight, Boise/ So Miss or Mem/Arky St... So I went with:

Tennessee Tech +5

UT Martin's D has been horrendous this year, especially there rushing defense (220 ypg allowed), and the Skyhawks (0-4) play host to Tennesse Tech's high powered offense and rushing attack led by Derek White (98 carries, 648 yards, 7 TD, 7.1 per attempt). Tenn Tech (3-1) is averaging right at 43 ppg on the year. I dont see much reason why TTU doesnt win this one outright but who knows, that OVC is tricky, tricky.

On a side note, 310 UTM's rushing yards against came from Southen Miss, but even with that game excluded, they are still giving up 190+ per game on the ground.
 
Pokey-

That is an awesome find. I just locked it in at +3.5. UTM's offensive #'s aren't that great, despite playing against a #107 D in Missouri St., and Central Ark. which is around 101. Could very well be an easy DD victory. GL to us!
 
13-10 TTU

Not quite what I expected out of this one but hey, Win is a Win and a cover is a cover. This marks my first winning thursday all year. +1 unit headed into the weekend!

Thats how you do it FCS style :cheers:
 
For what it's worth, guys, sagarin has JMU and Villanova rated dead even.
I'm taking the double digit dog here. Nice line move in your favor, but I'd recommend hedging.
I haven't seen ia line on the SIU game but agree that you can afford to lay a bundle.
Also considering Ctadela nd Ga So myself
GL
GL
 
Tailing you on georgia southern hoopsstar but i had to eat a -11. hope it still has value. tailed bull on princeton last week and never got aroudn to posting it so its not in my record. second tail of the year. hope it works as well.
 
Bull-

I'm going to ride JMU to the bank or into the fire. For my money, I don' think Nova will even cover 2 td's. They got very, very lucky last week against Penn. I mean they only won 34-14, despite Penn throwing 7int's and 1 fumble. You show me another team that only loses by 20 with 8 TOs.

Kyle-

I don't think 11 is terrible, but I deffinetly wouldn't take it any higher. W. Carolina has to be beaten up a little bit, playing Georgia and Bama already, but being tied 20-20 in the 4th against a reclassifying Presbyterian club with absolutely no D, makes me feel safe.
 
Valparaiso +28 @ Drake has me scratching m head a little. Sure Drake upset Illinois St. 27-24, in a game that blindly looking at the box score would leave you scratching your head. They just got throttled by N. Iowa, who is very good, but beat 2 D2 teams. Valpo has had a cake schedule, but shit, a 4 TD dog in a conference opener? They also have their all time leading RB back this season, after receiving a medical redshirt last year.

N Iowa lit up Drake for 360+ yards on the ground last week.
 
Adding.....

Valparaiso +28

I'm still looking, but I can't find another reason not to. They were a door mat in the conference last year, but have a key player back, a very experienced front 7 on D, and have limited opponents to 33ypg on the ground. I don't care if it was against lesser competition or not, that's still pretty impressive. Drake only managed to beat a NAIA team, D3 with scholarships, 45-14 that still ran the ball 52 times, despite being down 38-6 at the half, that's sad. I'm not looking for a SU win here, just to keep it under 4 TD's.
 
Week 5 - 4-1-1

Week 5 Recap.....

Gentlemen, I'd like to thank everyone for making this another excellent weekend, and all the discussion we had. Hopefully we can keep this up for the rest of the season.

Tennessee Tech +3.5 W - 13-10 SU - A big thanks goes out to Pokey for pointing this one out.

James Madison -6 W- 35-7 - JM absolutely crushed, as expected. Nova's only score came in garbage time, down 35-0, with under 5 min left.

The Citadel -10.5 W- 41-16 - Once again, another game that went exactly as planned. Chattanooga's win last week was a fluke, and the Citadel had too much offensive power.

Georgia Southern -8.5 W - 50-21 - I was right, GA Southern was pissed. Don't let the score fool you, they were up 50-7 in the 4th quarter, until WC put on a few at the end.

Montana -23 L - 18-10 - What a surprise, the #1 1-AA team almost lost to one of the worst teams. Weber State actually took a 10-3 lead into the half.

Valparaiso +28 Push - Valpo was absolutely the correct play. Drake broke off some huge scoring plays, 80, 28, and 26 yard passes, and a 54 yard run. Look at the box score, you'll be scratching your head.
 
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