WEEK 4

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
Made no adjustments for games played already - as to not confuse things, AND to help guard against overreactions
eg- Kan St at OU ..... Wyoming at BYU.



THURS 9/22

301 PITTSBURGH
8:15 p.m.
302 CLEVELAND -2'


303 WEST VIRGINIA
7:30 p.m.
304 VIRGINIA TECH -2'

305 COASTAL CAROLINA
7:30 p.m.
306 GEORGIA ST -1'


FRIDAY 9/23

307 VIRGINIA
7:30 p.m.
308 SYRACUSE -9'

309 NEVADA
8:00 p.m.
310 AIR FORCE -24
$ AF 16-30 OL ! / Navy next

311 BOISE ST -16
9:00 p.m.
312 UTEP
* B- fcs/SDSU


SAT 9/24

313 BAYLOR -1' ?
12:00 p.m.
314 IOWA ST
* B- 4-0 in series

315 NORTHERN ILLINOIS
12:00 p.m.
316 KENTUCKY -23

317 CHARLOTTE
12:00 p.m.
318 SOUTH CAROLINA -28
* SC- GA / FCS

319 MASSACHUSETTS
12:00 p.m.
320 TEMPLE -6'

321 KENT ST
12:00 p.m.
322 GEORGIA -45

323 NOTRE DAME -4
12:00 p.m.
324 NORTH CAROLINA
* ND- Cal/BYE
UNC- BYE/VT

325 MIDDLE TENNESSEE
12:00 p.m.
326 MIAMI, FL -28
*UM- A&M/BYE

327 MARYLAND
12:00 p.m.
328 MICHIGAN -18'
*MI- > @Iowa

329 CONNECTICUT
12:00 p.m.
330 NC STATE -40
*N- > CLEMSON

331 CENTRAL MICHIGAN
12:00 p.m.
332 PENN ST -25

333 GEORGIA TECH
12:00 p.m.
334 UCF -16'

335 USF
12:00 p.m.
336 LOUISVILLE -18'

337 MINNESOTA
12:00 p.m.
338 MICHIGAN ST -5
MST- @Wash/Terps

339 CLEMSON -8
12:00 p.m.
340 WAKE FOREST
*C- @ NCST
W- 0-8/5-3 in series

341 WISCONSIN
12:00 p.m.
342 OHIO ST -21

343 AKRON
12:00 p.m.
344 LIBERTY -26

345 BOSTON COLLEGE
12:00 p.m.
346 FLORIDA ST -16'
*F- QB??

347 FLORIDA
12:00 p.m.
348 TENNESSEE -9
* T- Akron/BYE

349 INDIANA
12:00 p.m.
350 CINCINNATI -17'

351 NAVY
12:00 p.m.
352 EAST CAROLINA -20

353 BALL ST
12:00 p.m.
354 GEORGIA SOUTHERN -12'

355 BUFFALO
12:00 p.m.
356 EASTERN MICHIGAN -5

357 JAMES MADISON
12:00 p.m.
358 APPALACHIAN ST -10

359 IOWA -6
12:00 p.m.
360 RUTGERS
*I - Nev/MICHIGAN

361 DUKE
12:00 p.m.
362 KANSAS -7

363 MIAMI, OH
12:00 p.m.
364 NORTHWESTERN -6
* LOSS/Penn St

365 ARKANSAS ST
12:00 p.m.
366 OLD DOMINION -8

367 UCLA -18
2:00 p.m.
368 COLORADO

369 WYOMING
2:00 p.m.
370 BYU -27

371 HAWAII
2:00 p.m.
372 NEW MEXICO ST -3

373 UTAH -8'
3:00 p.m.
374 ARIZONA ST

375 USC -4
3:00 p.m.
376 OREGON ST

377 TOLEDO -3
3:00 p.m.
378 SAN DIEGO ST

379 OREGON -8'
3:00 p.m.
380 WASHINGTON ST
*W- 4-6/8-2 S

381 ARIZONA
3:00 p.m.
382 CALIFORNIA -3

383 STANFORD
3:00 p.m.
384 WASHINGTON -10

385 MARSHALL -8'
3:30 p.m.
386 TROY

387 LOUISIANA TECH
3:30 p.m.
388 SOUTH ALABAMA -7

389 BOWLING GREEN
3:30 p.m.
390 MISSISSIPPI ST -32

391 KANSAS ST
3:30 p.m.
392 OKLAHOMA -9'
*K- 2-3/4-1 S - 7/9 over

393 TULSA
3:30 p.m.
394 MISSISSIPPI -23

395 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
396 ALABAMA -42

397 TCU -1'
3:30 p.m.
398 SMU
*T- BYE/OU

399 TEXAS -6
3:30 p.m.
400 TEXAS TECH
*TT- @ NCST/KST

401 LOUISIANA -15
3:30 p.m.
402 ULM

403 ARKANSAS -1'
3:30 p.m. JERRYWORLD
404 TEXAS A&M

405 RICE
3:30 p.m.
406 HOUSTON -25

407 NORTH TEXAS
3:30 p.m.
408 MEMPHIS -12

409 SOUTHERN MISS
3:30 p.m.
410 TULANE -13
* T- HUGE road W / HOUSTON
SM- FCS/BYE

411 MISSOURI
3:30 p.m.
412 AUBURN -10

413 FIU
3:30 p.m.
414 WKU -20

415 UNLV
7:00 p.m.
416 UTAH ST -3

417 FAU
7:30 p.m.
418 PURDUE -18

419 NEW MEXICO
7:30 p.m.
420 LSU -30

421 WESTERN MICHIGAN
10:30 p.m.
422 SAN JOSE ST -3




LEANS

BYU
ARIZONA
Ga St
AF
N Illinois
S Carolina
Oregon St
Kan St
TCU
Wazzu
TTech?
Arkansas
Duke?
J Madison?
 
bookieassassin said:
yep they had lines up (before) BO last week ..... maybe 1:00pE or so?
thanks I might do that - a horrible matchup for Wisky
Click to expand...
I decided to add MB to my lineup after seeing all the UTR games they offered yesterday as I was able to hit Morgan state over sacred heart in a true degenerate special. Best of luck this week man!
 
Not too bad so far - 26-17 after 3 weeks
* LW the plays I liked the most went 2-4 - smaller / leans 14-5 ffs (7-3/7-2) , so came out ok, I do something with most leans...


Until bowls I'll just list standard plays - all 0.5 - 1.25 typically - and smaller stuff, all 0.25 or so ..... as my reg. season smallers are as good, or better way too often.

TCU -1

Can't see any meaningful movement in my favor here - so I'll just play now. KEY here should be Frog DC Gillespie, who got THIS job because he knows how to shut down the Ponies - L3 SMU 4.9, 4.6, 4.8 per play vs Tulsa. Frogs are off a bye (OU on deck).

A ROAD series, road team has covered 7/row. Ponies have won and covered the last 2 (both at TCU). Frogs have killed SMU the last 3 in Dallas, outscoring SMU 131-15. I like SMU, but TCU IMO is undervalued, and a team to play on ..... Patterson was obviously respected by his team (Baylor W LY) - but they had tuned him out probably, and will go all out here for Sonny (more a players coach)
 
thanks BA. Appreciate your posts. Going against some powers this week I see - that GA St. is a tough one. It sure seems CC is down this year but losing at home to Charlotte is tough to bet on. LOL. GL
 
love these...
gonna have a lot in common this week. great line with the gators too! :shake:

BYU -20'
Florida +12
Arizona +6
Kan St +13


smaller
Oregon St +7
Michigan -16
 
Even when we disagree, always appreciate you taking the time to post your thoughts as you are definitely adding solid value to the forum!
 
BA,

While we haven’t corresponded previously, I was a longtime lurker on another site where you used to post, and I’m a big fan of your capping style. Great to see you here continuing to do your thing and generously sharing your thoughts — hope you crush it this season, amigo.

Question for you:
I look at a lot of situational stuff in my capping, and recently I’m starting to believe in what I might call a “delayed” letdown spot in NCAAF…Let’s say you have a team that, 2 weeks ago, played a very taxing game (both physically and emotionally) where they were a big underdog, and they either won SU or barely lost / covered easily. A lot of people will bet against them the next time out, expecting a letdown, but often it doesn’t happen. So let’s say they held it together in that next game and managed to avoid the letdown, winning handily. I believe this team should *now* be ripe for an ATS loss in their 2nd game after that big energy drain. Texas would be that team this week, likely at a low point in their performance cycle after holding it together for one week post-Bama. Now I’m not saying I’d blindly fade the Horns on that basis, but it’s a starting point that would have me looking to either play Red Raiders or pass while I look at other factors.

I’ve never heard other cappers mention this theory, and I wonder what are your thoughts? Thanks.

-TBB
 
Last edited:
Dawgs a Barking as usual, hope you have yet, another winning week BA!
Zona, Duke, UF, Oregon St, K St all are live barkers, just like my neighbors’ damn pair of chihuahua’s…I’m certain I could punt one of those fawkers for a 10 yard gain. Thanks for the heads up on the early #’s, your card looks fantastic so far imo.

Take a 2nd glance at wazoo +7, Stanford +14…
 
Last edited:
added a few ...


TCU -1
Ga St +2'/ML
Buffalo +5
Duke +8'
BYU -20'
Florida +12
Arizona +6
Kan St +13

TREE +14
Clemson/WF 1H UNDER 28'





smaller

Oregon St +7
Michigan -16

WV/VT 1H UNDER 26
Navy +10 1H
Tulsa +22
USF +14'


leans

AF at 14 1H
S Miss at 14
S Caro 1H
Boise 1H
FAU ?


$ Like Tree off bye, vs wildazz celebrating ranked Huskies - off huge W. Tree a TO machine so not a large play - lotta points vs that QB/O

WF / new DC Lambert can now, and (should) create HAVOC, and rush the passer .... I see a lower scoring 1H in which stays close for awhile - Clemson pulls away late
WV should compete early (backs vs wall) - and keep things close in a low scoring, ugly as hell game. Game under likely fine.

Navy OWNS EC - off bye (backs vs wall) - and should ugly this one up for awhile. Game maybe fine too.

Tulsa prints money on the road as dog - Ole Miss D improved, but really haven't been challenged- plus Kentucky on deck. Might bump this one up, smaller only because I 'marked' Tulsa as a team to fade TY.

Lou off nasty loss, and a penalty and TO machine - USF comes in with confidence ? .... off fine effort vs Gators - 1H maybe better.



Like S Miss a lot - waiting for 14?

AF probably fine for game - but HC has NOT prepared team well off a SU loss - LW they had like 40 guys sick - and key guys out, so maybe some hangover - AND perhaps the dreaded BURST BUBBLE effect - and undefeated season and NY6 bowl shot to hell. But Nevada stinks and off a SEVEN HOUR / physical game at Iowa.

S Caro / frustrated O should come out strong - CLT, with QB Reynolds back very back door capable vs SC D....

Boise a GREAT 1H team on the road (historically) - if drops I might play 1H. Miner O shouldn't move the ball at all. UTEP TT under maybe best play.

Boiler O is beat up at the WR (and RB) position / off really tough loss, at Minny on deck, plus homecoming so maybe distracted here

BOL this week boys ............ :shake:
 
added

S Miss +13
Air Force -14 1H (smaller)

Don't think SM goes to 14 , saved a bit in case it does. Great spot for SM off FCS with a bye on deck, HC Hall coming back to where he was an OC. Tulane off huge upset W, with Houston on deck.

AF probably covers, but they have not bounced back well off a loss - figure they start strong here tho vs a sorry Nevada team off a 7 HOUR game at Iowa.
 
LVM - man CC literally has no chance in this game ha .......rough 1st 2 for Ga St - outgained and easily could have beaten S Caro on the road - then had to face a (better than you think) N Caro. Surprise appearance from QB Reynolds last week made CLT POOF! - about twice as good as expected, and surprised GSU I reckon. CC has arguably G5's top player, but no D - Panthers should run all day here. BOL buddy ..... :shake:
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on Buffalo/EMU?
Click to expand...

My 1st thought is I'm a dumbazz for playing it at 5 .....

HORRIFIC spot for the mighty Eagles - a fantastic road dog, especially in non-conference games (one of my favorite teams to bet on). But as a MAC home favorite, off a humongous win, vs backs to the wall Buffalo? - NOPE. Ha - they have been a bit better lately at home, and the Bulls aren't very good, so not enough points to get real excited about.

Throw up a hand if you boys know what a rusty trombone is, - or two if you've had one ..............:bow:
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on the SMU/TCU O/U68ish? Seems a bit high if TCU D bucks up....
Click to expand...

I'm pretty much a 1H / 2H / LIVE totals guy (easier for me) .... so a bad guy to ask. Hard to read TCU at this point - I would say if you like it, wait and see how how high it gets - as folks still have that Pony/ Terp game on their minds, and forget that SMU got shut down by Maryland 2H. One thing, it looks like it will be hot as hell - 11:00a kick. BOL this week RT
 
TeeBeeBee said:
BA,

While we haven’t corresponded previously, I was a longtime lurker on another site where you used to post, and I’m a big fan of your capping style. Great to see you here continuing to do your thing and generously sharing your thoughts — hope you crush it this season, amigo.

Question for you:
I look at a lot of situational stuff in my capping, and recently I’m starting to believe in what I might call a “delayed” letdown spot in NCAAF…Let’s say you have a team that, 2 weeks ago, played a very taxing game (both physically and emotionally) where they were a big underdog, and they either won SU or barely lost / covered easily. A lot of people will bet against them the next time out, expecting a letdown, but often it doesn’t happen. So let’s say they held it together in that next game and managed to avoid the letdown, winning handily. I believe this team should *now* be ripe for an ATS loss in their 2nd game after that big energy drain. Texas would be that team this week, likely at a low point in their performance cycle after holding it together for one week post-Bama. Now I’m not saying I’d blindly fade the Horns on that basis, but it’s a starting point that would have me looking to either play Red Raiders or pass while I look at other factors.

I’ve never heard other cappers mention this theory, and I wonder what are your thoughts? Thanks.

-TBB
Click to expand...

Good man, thanks for the support .............. :shake:

IMO it depends on the (specific) spot .....

>> it can happen sure , but often might be coincidental, rather than a consequence of the earlier 'letdown' game. But here you may be on to something - Horns had to rally around their bu/ banged up QB the game after Bama - and now have to go on the road vs a better than we thought TT. The question is how much did it take out of them? UTSA after all was themselves off a 3OT loss at home vs Houston - followed by a road trip at Army, that went to OT also. They played hard, but how much fight did they really have left? Several coaches have said playing option teams (esp Army) can have a serious hangover effect (one said it screwed up their entire season so many guys got hurt). I don't think it took too much outta Texas really......?

Here, TT is off 2 tough games as well, with a bu QB - a 2 OT storming the field moment vs Houston - and a tough loss at NCST - in which they OUTGAINED the Pack 353-270 (note they also OG Houston 468-353 / 35 FD). IMO both NCST and Houston are overrated, but still fine efforts.

So - I don't think I see any situational edge here - I would go DIRECTLY to the obvious match-up issue..... CAN THAT RED RAIDER D STOP BIJAN? We don't know yet, as Houston and NCST didn't run, but also can't run at all anyway. I haven't checked the (potential) yet, but the 2nd question is - Can TT D , penetrate / create havoc vs that very young Horn OL? One of the reasons Horn HC doesn't release a depth chart, is because he doesn't want anyone to talk about how young they are. Typically SEVEN TRUE FRESHMEN on the 2 deep OL - depending on injuries - the rest are young too.

I would recommend waiting for a 2H / live bet - if Texas can't get any push vs the TT defensive front, its gonna be a tough game for them to win. But nothing at all wrong on a smaller play on TT if you can get 7 - I might do that myself.
>>> also that Texas D is getting too much EARLY love as well IMO - NEWSFLASH - Bama offense under that Bill O'Brien ..... is FLAWED. Checks LY's box scores, and analytics - they struggle on early downs in a big way- relying on a great QB to continually bail them out - and that was with great WR ...... BOL
 
Wolfeman said:
.Dawgs a Barking as usual, hope you have yet, another winning week BA!
Zona, Duke, UF, Oregon St, K St all are live barkers, just like my neighbors’ damn pair of chihuahua’s…I’m certain I could punt one of those fawkers for a 10 yard gain. Thanks for the heads up on the early #’s, your card looks fantastic so far imo.

Take a 2nd glance at wazoo +7, Stanford +14…
Click to expand...

wassup Wolf ......:shake:

Wazzu not sure of ...... Ducks have struggled vs those boys, and are all of a sudden POOF! ...... world beaters ha. I'll definitely be watching and looking for a live play. Like Tree a bit - and yep BBF saw that Smith was out thanks! I usually look to hedge (live) this early in the season anyway.
 
bookieassassin said:
LVM - man CC literally has no chance in this game ha .......rough 1st 2 for Ga St - outgained and easily could have beaten S Caro on the road - then had to face a (better than you think) N Caro. Surprise appearance from QB Reynolds last week made CLT POOF! - about twice as good as expected, and surprised GSU I reckon. CC has arguably G5's top player, but no D - Panthers should run all day here. BOL buddy ..... :shake:
Click to expand...
Like I was saying .......

Holy crap both teams looked much different than expected IMO - GSU looked terrible, maybe they're banged up .......?
 
bookieassassin said:
wassup Wolf ......:shake:

Wazzu not sure of ...... Ducks have struggled vs those boys, and are all of a sudden POOF! ...... world beaters ha. I'll definitely be watching and looking for a live play. Like Tree a bit - and yep BBF saw that Smith was out thanks! I usually look to hedge (live) this early in the season anyway.
Click to expand...

Freaking Nix has a long history of looking much better at home than he does in road starts, def think wazzu the right side.

I lean trees as well but the more I’ve looked at that game this week the more I think over just might be the better option. I could def see trees covering but I don’t think their defense has much of any chance of slowing down udub passing game so think they gonna need at least 27 to feel good even w +14. Often times when I lean dog in a game like this I find over works out even better, just a thought.
 
bookieassassin said:
added

S Miss +13
Air Force -14 1H (smaller)

Don't think SM goes to 14 , saved a bit in case it does. Great spot for SM off FCS with a bye on deck, HC Hall coming back to where he was an OC. Tulane off huge upset W, with Houston on deck.

AF probably covers, but they have not bounced back well off a loss - figure they start strong here tho vs a sorry Nevada team off a 7 HOUR game at Iowa.
Click to expand...
Really like Southern Miss too
 
2daBank said:
Freaking Nix has a long history of looking much better at home than he does in road starts, def think wazzu the right side.

I lean trees as well but the more I’ve looked at that game this week the more I think over just might be the better option. I could def see trees covering but I don’t think their defense has much of any chance of slowing down udub passing game so think they gonna need at least 27 to feel good even w +14. Often times when I lean dog in a game like this I find over works out even better, just a thought.
Click to expand...

Wazzu QB still a question mark (supposedly) ...... as are Ducks really - so I'll only be involved live/2H

You're correct over IS probably better for TREE
 
adding smaller - both juiced a bit at BM

Charlotte TT over 20'
C Michigan TT over 16'

Market hasn't adjusted to return of CLT QB (IMO) - a frustrated SCaro O might score a ton so I'll go this way
CMich can score - don't think PSU D stays focused for 4Q

BOL today boys ..........:shake:


TCU -1
Ga St +2'/ML L
Buffalo +5
Duke +8'
BYU -20'
Florida +12
Arizona +6
Kan St +13
TREE +14
Clemson/WF 1H UNDER 28'
SMiss +13


smaller

Oregon St +7
Michigan -16
WF/VT 1H UNDER 26 W
Navy +10 1H
Tulsa +22
USF +14'
AF -14 1H W
Sparty at 3
ODU/NW ML
CLT TT over 20'
CMich TT over 16'


leans

JMU 1H
TT
NW
ODU
ULM
FAU
LT / SAla OVER


live/2H
* IF set up

N Caro
Clemson
Ohio St
E Caro
App St
Penn St
UCF
Fla St
 
Helluva Saturday Amigo… winners & sharp angles all around yet again. TY!
I was able to land a TCU/KState ML Parlay that pulled me back to even on a 50/50 September Saturday. Lots of Fun!

GL Week 5. You keep the Freight Train Wagon charging along Brotha…..I know you’re already crunching the #’s on the Early lines. Animal!

Aloha BA
-Wolfe
 
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