Week 4 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Week 4 already, so after this week, we are officially a third the way through the season. Time flies as fast as ever. As I mentioned in the recap, it was just a disaster last week. 5-11 for the week, which brought the season long total to 17-24. I'm glad that most read this thread for entertainment purposes only, but I will make mention of something. One interesting thing I've been aware of for awhile is my complete inability to win a game that kicks off in the second window. I have not gotten a game correct in that window all year. There's been 9 of them so I am 0-9 in the 3:30PM window, and it wasn't much better late last year. I considered avoiding all games in that window, but now I'm curious, so I'm writing them up if I like them. ATTENTION: This could be a fabulous opportunity. Don't delay, order now!!!

I'm not going to be betting this because I wouldn't fade Bielema as a road dog, but I will be VERY surprised if my alma mater wins Friday night in Lincoln, and if someone made me bet it, I would lay the current 7.5. First of all, I'm a believer in Matt Rhule. I think he knows what he's doing, and he'll be able to sniff out what ails Illinois. The primary problem for the Illini is that they can't run the ball, especially between the tackles. They had to resort to stretch plays or pitchouts to get yards against EIU, Kansas completely shut them down on the ground and CMU was successful other than a few busts on blown run fits. Nebraska's defensive line is by leaps and bounds the best they have faced, and I don't think they'll have an answer for the Polar Bear Hutmacher or Robinson or any of them really. Illinois has thrown the ball well, but Nebraska will get pressure on Luke Altmyer, and although he's been very good so far this year, he has at least one pick in him this week. I think the motivational edge is with Nebraska as well because I think they look at their schedule and see a potential huge season brewing while Illinois is kind of playing with house money. Defensively, Nebraska should be able to run on the Illini which will limit the opportunities the Illini secondary will have to ballhawk Raiola. I hope I'm wrong but I see the Illini taking it on the chin a bit.

San Jose State +12 WIN
Houston +3.5 LOSS
Clemson -18 WIN
Mississippi State +7 LOSS
Buffalo +13 WIN
Rutgers +3.5 WIN
USC -4 LOSS
Arkansas +2.5 WIN
Oklahoma State +1 LOSS
East Carolina +7.5 LOSS (Whaaaaaaat?
Miami(FL) -17 WIN
Cal +3 LOSS
Tulsa +3 WIN
Bowling Green +23 WIN
Oregon State -3.5 WIN
BYU +7 WIN

10-6


Friday Night:


1. San Jose State +12.5(Bet Rivers) @Washington State: I faded the Cougs last week because I thought Washington would handle them, and I don't want to get into specifics, but they should have. The Huskies became the third team out of three to pile up 450 yards or more against the Cougs, The Spartans have not played any offensive juggernauts, far from it, but they've not given up 200 yards in a game yet this year. I like their staff, so I think they can come up with a good scheme to bottle up Washington State QB John Mateer's runs and make their running game somewhat pedestrian, which Washington was able to accomplish. I also like the chances that nobody on Wazzou will be able to cover SJSU WR Nick Nash, who has 34 catches for 454 yards and 6 TDs in 3 games. Washington State is also coming off one of the most emotional games imaginable for them, so they are certainly ripe for a letdown. Washington State could certainly lose this game if they showed up with a C effort. I think the chances are pretty good that the Cougs bring a subpar effort, so I am interested in the points, although I would have liked to get the 14 that was available early n the week.

Tough break for the Spartans not getting this one outright, but they could not stop WAZZOU so the right team probably won that game. Nick Nash has to be the best receiver in the country at this point. 16 catches and 2 more TDs and he didn't do much of anything in the first half. Right ATS side here for sure.
 
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I almost played these guys, I don’t know Jack bout sjst anymore but agree I like their staff as well so expect a certain level of play regardless who in the jerseys. As you mentioned seems like prime spot to get a bunch of points against a team who just won their Super Bowl per say. Those were my only 2 thoughts which had me really close. I was busy loading up on cuse props when I was in Illinois earlier but I might go back and play this one since I see you agree.

Look at it this way, with the new playoffs so many seem to not like season might technically be a 4rh the way over but I think unlike most years when I bet less and less at the end this year might afford way more chances for plays late!!
 
2. Houston +3.5 @ Cincinnati(BR) : The Cougars started the season with an ugly 27-2 loss at home against UNLV, but since then they've found their footing a bit under Willie Fritz, especially defensively. DC Shiel Wood has been very good at all of his stops, including Army a couple years ago, Troy under Jon Sumrall after that and last year with Fritz at Tulane. They've given up 307 total yards to UNLV in that bad opener(not bad) and then followed that up by holding Oklahoma to 249 yards and then only a paltry 159 to a Rice team that a lot of people had as a darkhorse in the American last week. I'm not a big fan of Donovan Smith but they've outgained the last 2 opponents easily, and I don't think Cincinnati is anyone to be intimidated by at home. They've shown a penchant to lose games they should win under Satterfield, something he's continued from his time at Louisville. That was especially true 2 weeks ago when they puked up a win and lost outright to Pitt when they were entirely helpless against Eli Holstein in the second half. There's a major coaching edge in this one, and I'll take more than a field goal with a very good defense against a team that finds ways to vomit on themselves in big spots.

Wrong side, bad call. Fell in the love the coaching mismatch and never even considered the Cincy side here. Poor handicapping.
 
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3. @Clemson -18 v NC State (BR) Take this with a grain of salt because I typically do not fare well when taking a position on Clemson, but I've come to the conclusion that the Robert Anae offense, which we all liked so much a few years ago at Virginia, is pretty much toothless now. He didn't look very good when he moved to Syracuse, and then last year, when reunited with his QB Brennan Armstrong, Nc State couldn't throw the ball to save their lives. I had high hopes with Grayson McCall coming to NC State this year, but again, nothing much has happened, and now McCall might be out, and is at best hobbled. I like backup CJ Bailey, but having his first major playing time against this defense at Clemson will not be ideal. The offense just has not looked good over the past 3 years, and i think that's a good enough sample size, with a weak effort at home against Louisiana Tech being the latest example. Clemson looked superhuman their last time out, but I think we can dismiss that effort after watching what Appy State looked like last night. However, I am a believer in RB Phil Mafah, and NC State has shown no evidence that they can slow down the likes of him. The NC State defense is ranked 101st in yards per play, and I know hey played Tennessee, but Western Carolina and LT are in there too.. I don't think this will be a formidable defense for Cade Klubnik, even if he has turned the corner. There are some things I like against the Wolfpack, (Concepcion, Doeren) but I don't think this is a good matchup for them. Clemson is going to need margin in these games, and I think they can get it here. The line came down from about 21, so I like it at this number.

Clemson again ran roughshod in the first half on offense. It got a tad bit hairy at the end because Clemson had no interest in competing on defense in the second half, but all's well that ends well. Correct side here obviously.
 
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4. @Mississippi State +7(-120) v Florida: (BOL) : The Bulldogs ruined me last week by getting blasted at home by what appeared to be a way overrated Toledo team, but I'm going back to them here. Sometimes people say things just because it sounds profound, but I've heard a few people suggest that Mississippi State might be the worst SEC team in 20 years. Even though I've lost money on them two weeks in a row, that is just a silly statement. Teams that bad show it all over the statistics, and this team, though not good, is not THAT bad. they're ranked 28th in yards per pass attempt and Blake Shapen grades out 12th among QB passing grades per PFF. That should be good enough to be very effective against this Florida outfit, which hasn't been even remotely competitive in coverage in either of the FBS teams they played. Miami was a joke, as the whole country saw in week1, and they weren't better in their pass coverage last week, as a Texas A&M team playing it's backup QB and without any identifiable weapons in the skill area torched them for 302 yards in the first half. While that was still a game, the yardage total was 302-73. Now this team is a TD favorite on the road? When they are 1-6 as a road favorite over the past 3 years? The eye test told you that Florida can't cover anyone, and that the coaching staff appears severely overmatched. The jury is obviously out on Jeff Lebby, but I don't think Sun Belt Billy and his crew are going to outscheme anyone. I'll take my chances fading this Florida team, especially when they are near the bottom of most notable statistical categories on both sides of the ball.

There were probably 120 teams in FBS that would have covered this spread as a home team, but Mississippi State is not one of them, and as much as I wanted to force them into being one of them, they were not. There's 60-70 games to play each week....
 
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5. Buffalo +13 @Northern Illinois: (BR) I was hoping to get 14, and if you wait, you might get it tomorrow, but I needed to write this one up so I'm using the 13. This is almost purely a situational handicap. Northern has obviously looked great, but they are coming off the biggest win in their program's history(and the MAC's?). They're off a bye but still, I'm sure their glowing about that win even still. Under Hammock the Huskies have been a cash register as a road dog, but just as much of a cash register against as a home favorite, going 4-12 ATS and sporting outright losses to some pretty unsavory teams. Buffalo comes in with a new coach in Pete Lembo, who I've always been a fan of. Ball State was 23-17 during his tenure, and the Cards had some of their best years in the program's history when he was there. He definitely represents a coaching upgrade over Maurice Linguist. I was a little skeptical that he even had a functioning QB on his roster prior to last week, but when you step back and look at the stats, CJ Ogbanna has not been terrible, and they can run the ball a little bit. UMass took a ton of money against Buffalo last week, but the Bulls clubbed them with no problem, and I think they'll be an overly positive story this year mostly due to Lembo's presence. This is a spot play, so I'll bet that the Huskies are caught looking ahead to another shot to prove themselves next week at NC State. Hammock's record as a favorite can't be ignored.

This turned out to be a good call. I can tell you I'll be a pretty good candidate to be on NIU this coming week though.
 
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6. Rutgers +3.5 @Virginia Tech (BOL) : I was never a believer in Virginia Tech this year despite the fact that I thought they could win a bunch of games due to their weak schedule. All of their momentum coming into this year was built on wins over shit teams or teams that were a shell of their former selves due to injury. Whenever they played someone at their level, they slunked away. That includes games against this Rutgers team and at home against Purdue, which is at a very similar point in the schedule as this one is. That one was Ryan walters second game, and Purdue ended up with a 427-286 edge. Fast forward and one must wonder how in the orld that was possible. considering that Purdue hasn't done that do just about anyone with a pulse since. Both of these teams are better at stopping the pass than the run, and it's very surprising that a Schiano team would have poor numbers against the run, but I don't think an edge in the running game is going to materialize for VT. Their top RB Tuten is banged up, and they haven't run it well this year against subpar competition. Rutgers is running the ball well, and has in the past with Kyle Monogai, so I expect that to continue. Rutgers is coming off a bye, and they have hardly had to break a sweat, but I expect a great effort from Schiano here. Rutgers is expecting to win this game, not hoping, and Schiano is 10-3 in the non-conference since coming back for round 2 at Rutgers. Monogai ran for 8.9 yards per carry last year in this game, and Rutgers is better and more is expected of them this year. I trust Schiano here a lot more than I trust the Hokies, who I think are a bit of a paper tiger.

Fade train should continue on VT. I still do not like betting on Kaliakmanis though. Rutgers following the script under Schiano. Soon they'll start being a home dog in conference and it will be time to shift gears on them.
 
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7. USC -4 @MIchigan (BR) : This line keeps falling, and I'm guessing that's because people are not sold on USC. I think the upgrade in the defensive coaching staff has made all the difference. Their numbers aren't great, but I don't know if they need to be against what will almost certainly be a totally one dimensional offense. Mullings is a load for Michigan and Edwards is a home run hitter if used correctly, but with Orji at QB, there isn't much of a threat for a pass. I wouldn't want to see this Michigan backfield running against last year's USC defense, but under D'Anton Lynn, I'm more comfortable. On the other side of the ball, Michigan's defense is a bully, but they couldn't stop Texas when the game was in doubt. CB Will Johnson is s stud, but on the other side, Jyire Hill got toasted against Texas, so it will be interesting to see if he's out there vulnerable again. I don't know that Wink Martindale is the answer as the latest former Baltimore DC or staffer to take over at Michigan. My guess is that Lincoln Riley will have a pretty good plan having had 2 weeks to prepare. I just don't know that Michigan score enough to stay in this one.

Great win for Michigan, but man did USC miss an opportunity. That tackling display on the last long run by Mullings harkened back to Alex Grinch. I tip my cap to the Wolverines there. Their only chance was to bust some long runs and they did it enough to win.
 
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8. Arkansas +2.5 @Auburn: Probably will be able to wait a bit for 3, but 2.5 is the number now. I'm not going to say for superstitious reasons that I like the Hogs outright, but I'm ok if the line never gets back to 3. This Arkansas offense has been very good. Taylen Green is a bit inconsistent, but I think Arkansas is going to be able to run the ball on Auburn with Jaquinden Jackson, who has averaged 8 yards per carry. The hogs amassed 600+ in their first two games, including at Oklahoma State, but were uneven last week, which is probably not all that disappointing to their coaches because they were able to escape with a win against UAB. Petrino has 2 good receivers to use in Armstrong and Sategna, and TE Luke Hasz, who is a load hasn't really been used all that much. Defensively, Arkansas has been great so far against the run, bottling up the nation's leading rusher from last year Ollie Gordon for only 2.9 yards per carry two weeks ago. Running is obviously Auburn's MO with Jacquez Hunter, but they will probably have to throw the ball effectively to move the chains, and I don't know that Auburn will be able to do that with Hank Brown making only his second start. He looked fine last week against the nation's worst defense in New Mexico, but this will be a major step up for him. Arkansas is also very good as a road dog, going 6-1 in their last 7 tries in the role.

Pittman remains money as a road dog. Arkansas really didn't even get going on offense and they won comfortably anyway. I suspect playing the dog in Arkansas games is going to be a smart strategy
 
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Brass BOL on the week! I've been torn on the Rutgers game this week, but agree they certainly appear to have the better running game and coaching.
 
9. @Oklahoma State +1 v Utah (BOL) : There's no telling which way this line is going to go, but I'm assuming that Cam Rising is going to play. If he doesn't, I'm sure this line will swing, but at the current number, the assumption is he's playing. There's a few reasons why I like Okie State here. First, Gundy has been a master as a home dog, going 8-1 in that role in his last 9, and if I'm not mistaken, he's won all or almost all of them. Utah has historically been very good on the road, but Whittingham has dropped 6 games as a road favorite outright over the past three years. Even if Rising plays, his hand isn't 100%, and I don't know that a 60-70% Rising is going to be good enough in this game. The Cowboys haven't been able to get Ollie Gordon going so far this year, but Alan Bowman has been solid, and he has some talented receivers to work with in Washington State transfer Dezhaun Stribling as well As Brennan Presley and Rashad Owens, both of whom have been around awhile. It's also going to be close to 100 degrees in Still water for this one, and I'm sure most of the kids on Utah haven't dealt much with temps like that. Both of these coaches are very good, and they were hired in the same year, (2005), but I trust Gundy here, and I think he'll find a way to get Gordon going.

Gordon did not get going, the OSU offense was a disaster under very late and their defense, though not terrible showed that they aren't reliable. Had news come out that Rising wasn't playing I would have been on Utah as a dog here. Had to ride Gundy as a dog, but I'm sure that flipped before the kick.
 
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Timh said:
How about your Ilini Brass, what a big win!
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I am surprised for sure, and that cost me a pretty penny on the emotional hedge. I was really surprised by how they ran the ball in the second half. 7.6 yards per carry in the 4th quarter. They didn't show any evidence previously that they could do that against a front like Nebraska.
 
10. East Carolina +7.5 @Liberty (BOL) : I've been looking at jumping on ECU all week and still like it quite a bit even though Appy State's performance last night made ECU's inability to crack 20 points on them a little questionable to say the least. This is more of a fade of Liberty, who had some pretty high expectations but have not looked good. In week 1 they were in a 27-17 game with Campbell with 3 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. IN week 2 they were down by 9 with 7 minutes left to New Mexico State and had to score twice late to sneak out of there with a win despite being a 22 point favorite. Last week it was 14-10 into the third quarter before they scored late to get it to 28-10 against Austin Peay(I mean UTEP). They have either been sleepwalking or they aren't very good. Liberty is a heavy run team and their top RB Quin Cooley is questionable for this game and ECU has been good against the run so far, ranking 9th in FBS in yards per carry against. Jake Garcia has already tossed 8 picks(!!) but somehow ECU has won two games and lost the other by 2. Liberty has let teams much weaker than ECU have them on the ropes, so I like the Pirates chances to hang here. If Garcia can somehow avoid multiple picks, they might find a way to be in a position to win late.

It was 17-0 early after the stupid weather delay and then ECU just shit the bed in the second half, culminating in the obligatory front door cover for Liberty with a minute left. These teams that get ahead and then change how they're playing to "preserve the victory" at some point have to know this approach causes more losses than wins by a factor of about a million.
 
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11. Miami -17 @USF(BOL) : This is the kind of game that I usually look to play the dog, but there's just too much going against the Bulls here to do it. I think a lot of people were impressed by USF because of the way they hung with Alabama despite the final score. They passed the eye test. I thought they looked good at times in that game too. The Bulls are at home, but they play in a pro stadium which isn't that great of an environment. Another problem is their defense, which is giving up a ton of yards. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play and 124th in yards per pass attempt. That's not good news against an offense like Miami's, which has had the pedal to the floor against the patsies they've played against. USF's pass defense wes were on display last week against Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles haven't had a decent QB since Favre, and the past couple years they've hardly used a QB, opting instead under Will Hall to use Frank Gore Jr as a wildcat QB at times. A rotation of 3 shitty quarterbacks combined last week to throw for 397 yards on 33 attempts (12 yards per attempt). Byrum Brown managed to get 10 yards per completion in that Southern Miss game, but he's led USF 127th in FBS in yards per pass attempt. The Miami defense stops that as they haven't given up anything through the air. USF's ticket in this game is running the ball, but Miami is pretty stout in that department, and if they don't, the Miami DL can pin their ears back, which will lead to lots of sacks because Miami gets them and USF gives them up by the bushel(122nd in sack rate). Miami's been great on both lines and has been very good on 3rd down, both offense and defense. Restrepo, Martinez and company should have a lot of success. There's enough mismatches in various areas that have me laying it with the Hurricanes.

I was legitimately proud of myself here. I am the kind of guy who ignores evidence when they see a dog they want to back, and this one had all the hallmarks of it. If there is evidence of a team being able to dominate the other one on one side of the ball, be observant and don't invent ways the dog can make crazy things happen.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
4. @Mississippi State +7(-120) v Florida: (BOL) : The Bulldogs ruined me last week by getting blasted at home by what appeared to be a way overrated Toledo team, but I'm going back to them here. Sometimes people say things just because it sounds profound, but I've heard a few people suggest that Mississippi State might be the worst SEC team in 20 years. Even though I've lost money on them two weeks in a row, that is just a silly statement. Teams that bad show it all over the statistics, and this team, though not good, is not THAT bad. they're ranked 28th in yards per pass attempt and Blake Shapen grades out 12th among QB passing grades per PFF. That should be good enough to be very effective against this Florida outfit, which hasn't been even remotely competitive in coverage in either of the FBS teams they played. Miami was a joke, as the whole country saw in week1, and they weren't better in their pass coverage last week, as a Texas A&M team playing it's backup QB and without any identifiable weapons in the skill area torched them for 302 yards in the first half. While that was still a game, the yardage total was 302-73. Now this team is a TD favorite on the road? When they are 1-6 as a road favorite over the past 3 years? The eye test told you that Florida can't cover anyone, and that the coaching staff appears severely overmatched. The jury is obviously out on Jeff Lebby, but I don't think Sun Belt Billy and his crew are going to outscheme anyone. I'll take my chances fading this Florida team, especially when they are near the bottom of most notable statistical categories on both sides of the ball.
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Smart man here imo. Dumpster fire.
 
12. Cal +3(-118) @Florida State (BOL) : I've bet against Florida State all 3 weeks but haven't written any of them up, so I felt like I'd do Mike Norvell a solid and give him a win, LOL. In all seriousness, when we think about this, the first thing we think of is how much the value has eroded in betting against the Seminoles. You could get 17 or whatever it was on BC, and 7 with Memphis and now you can only buy up low juice to three on CAL??? That line of thinking assumes that Florida State is a solid team worthy of being a favorite, and the evidence has told us that that is just false. These losses were not flukes. Georgia Tech dominated that game and only won by a FG because that's all they were hoping for. BC beat the hell out of them in the first half and then just coasted to a 15 point win in the second half. The Memphis game wasn't really even competitive, as the Tigers were up 20-3 halfway through the third quarter and out it on cruise control the rest of the way. And how good is BC, or Memphis? Pretty good I'd say, but not world beaters. I didn't write up Memphis last week because I couldn't justify it based on their play. Henigan played his best game by far against the Noles. So now Cal comes in at 3-0, having already won at Auburn and they are a dog to this FSU team that ranks poorly everywhere on the field, especially on offense? I don't think it's justifiable. Is it because FSU is at home? If anyone has seen what that stadium looked like last week, they know the only people that care enough to come to the game are the ones with a scowl on their face ready to boo the team off the field. Somehow, both lines for FSU have been beaten consistently, and it shows in the numbers. 103rd in yards per play on offense. 124th in yards per carry. 112th on third down. Defensively, their numbers are pedestrian as well. As for Cal, I like the staff, and I like Mendoza at QB. He's not explosive, but he can run if necessary and keeps the chains moving (17th in 3rd down conversions). Also, Cal usually leans heavily on the running game. Jaydn Ott is s stud, but he's been hobbled and hasn't done much. Luckily for them however, Jatavian Thomas has come in and averaged almost 8 yards a carry. Ott is reportedly healthier this week after not playing last week, so they have some depth there. Cal is good enough to produce a performance equal to FSU's previous opponents, and that has been worthy of decisive victories, not just lucky last minute wins. Maybe FSU has figured it out, but I'm betting they are what they've shown.

This was frustrating. FSU was begging Cal to beat them, and they just refused to do it. The last TD was a desperation heave for FSU and they got lucky on it. Cal had a 410-284 edge. This was the right side. 410 total yards and 9 points is a travesty.
 
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As always this is a great thread and best to you.

Good selection last night. Really impressed with San Jose QB, Brown, and receivers and RB. I do not know if you saw the end, but there was tremendous sportsmanship and respect shown by Wazzu players/coaches towards Brown after game was over - it was good to see.

Best to you today on MissSt. I understand the selection with the pts agst Gators, but after what I watched last week I cannot ever punish myself again with a wager on those bulldogs
 
13. Tulsa +3 @Louisiana Tech (-113) BR : Tulsa is coming off a thrashing at home against Oklahoma State in a game that they took a ton of money, so there's a lot of disappointment for bettors that took those points. At the same time LT was beating NC State for a large chunk of their game before wilting, so there are some good vibes for them. I like a bounce back for Tulsa here as they are back in the road dog role that they have consistently flourished in. Scotty Montgomery was just about automatic in that role, and now Kevin Wilson is 5-2 in the short time he's been around. The GH bit off a little more than they could chew last week, but I do like their offense under Kirk Francis. Also, just about everyone was down on LT this season, and I think for good reason. There's a reason why Texas Tech didn't consider native son Sonny Cumbie for the head coaching job after his interim stint and went elsewhere to fill the job. On top of that, Cumbie didn't inherit much in Ruston and didn't do anything to get a QB to run his offense. He's played two of them thus far and both Jack Turner and Blake Baker have been terrible. They split duty against Nicholls in the opener and both of them threw picks, combining for three in a narrow win. They were able to compete last week against an NC State team that was lost for a half, but I don't think they have any juice on offense and I think Francis will be comfortable because LT can't pressure the QB. I'll jump at a chance to fade LT as a favorite when the opponent is a program that thrives in the road dog role.

Nice job at the end for the Hurricane. They played like shit but still got the win. The Tulsa road dog train keeps rolling.
 
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bones said:
As always this is a great thread and best to you.

Good selection last night. Really impressed with San Jose QB, Brown, and receivers and RB. I do not know if you saw the end, but there was tremendous sportsmanship and respect shown by Wazzu players/coaches towards Brown after game was over - it was good to see.

Best to you today on MissSt. I understand the selection with the pts agst Gators, but after what I watched last week I cannot ever punish myself again with a wager on those bulldogs
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Totally understand Bones. It's a hold your nose bet for sure. What a finish last night. Heartbreaking for the Spartans, they probably thought they won it with the late TD.
 
Br@ssknux said:
7. USC -4 @MIchigan (BR) : This line keeps falling, and I'm guessing that's because people are not sold on USC. I think the upgrade in the defensive coaching staff has made all the difference. Their numbers aren't great, but I don't know if they need to be against what will almost certainly be a totally one dimensional offense. Mullings is a load for Michigan and Edwards is a home run hitter if used correctly, but with Orji at QB, there isn't much of a threat for a pass. I wouldn't want to see this Michigan backfield running against last year's USC defense, but under D'Anton Lynn, I'm more comfortable. On the other side of the ball, Michigan's defense is a bully, but they couldn't stop Texas when the game was in doubt. CB Will Johnson is s stud, but on the other side, Jyire Hill got toasted against Texas, so it will be interesting to see if he's out there vulnerable again. I don't know that Wink Martindale is the answer as the latest former Baltimore DC or staffer to take over at Michigan. My guess is that Lincoln Riley will have a pretty good plan having had 2 weeks to prepare. I just don't know that Michigan score enough to stay in this one.
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USC is one of the most heavily bet teams this week, along with Tennessee.

The movement is odd.
 
14. Bowling Green +23 @ Texas A&M (BR): Over the past few years BG has been very game in these types of games, and they proved that a couple weeks ago when they had Penn State on the ropes. Under Loeffler they've beaten Minnesota as a 31 point dog, beat Georgia Tech as a 22 point dog and played really well at Michigan last year, picking off McCarthy 3 times as a 40 point favorite and covering easily. They have some good athletes on offense, and QB Bazelak is FINALLY playing decently in year 6. The best athlete is probably their TE Harold Fannin who dominated against Penn State and is probably going to get drafted in April. Under Loeffler they have had good defenses and they are coming off a bye after the Penn State game, which is good because I would be wary about this if they were playing Penn State and A&M back to back. A&M is coming off a nice win last week over Florida and has the annual trip to Jerry's world against Arkansas next week, so this is a sandwich spot for them. Marcel Reed looked good last week, but everyone looks good against that Florida pass defense, and A&M is not all that explosive in the skill spots. If BG plays solid D and at least makes them be methodical, I think they'll be able to cover this.

Correct side here. BG very solid team.
 
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B.A.R. said:
USC is one of the most heavily bet teams this week, along with Tennessee.

The movement is odd.
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Bad sign then. But the sharps have been wrong before. They spent Hue Jacksons 0-16 campaign pounding the Browns. I can see skepticism on that line when it was 7 though. I wouldn't play it more than this.
 
15. @Oregon State -3.5 v Purdue(BOL) : I know this seems like a square play, but i cannot get over, even 7 days later, how weak Purdue looked physically against Notre Dame. They caught ND on a bad day, but they couldn't block, they couldn't dream of tackling and everyone on their team looked slow? Can they bounce back? Sure, and I would totally expect a better effort, but we're asking them to do something Big ten teams have historically struggled to do, and that is go out West and play well in a tough environment. Oregon State is nowhere near the last couple teams that Jonathan Smith had out there, but they are still a physical team that can play defense. They had a rough outing last week because Oregon finally decided to be the team everyone was expecting, but Hankerson and Griffin are both a load on the ground and Gevani McCoy has show he is capable as well. Defensively, Trent Bray knows what he's doing, so if Purdue goes out there and plays the Beavers to a standstill in one of the toughest road environments in the country over the past 5-6 years, it will be a 500% improvement. I obviously like Walters, but the jury is still out on him. The performance the Boilers give tonight will be a major reflection on him. I think they'll be better, but not that much better that they'll have a a chance to win this late.

This line got down to 1.5 I think? Wow, that is a case of making things way more complicated than they are. Purdue is going to be a go against for me until further notice unless the lines get ridiculous.
 
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16. @BYU +7 v Kansas State (BOL) : Happy to scoop up 7 here(and at -108 to boot!). K State looked good last week, but it looked like Arizona just had the moment consume them more than anything. I'm still focused on that last road performance for the Wildcats against Tulane. The Green Wave just moved the ball at will on them, and that's getting to be a trend for the Wildcats on the road as their last 6 road opponents have averaged 28 points a game. In ther 2 FBS games they rank 105th in yards per attempt against and 95th in overall yards per play. I think BYU's offense has been better than expected under QB Jake Retzlaff. They've won back to back road games and now come back home with a chance to get to 4-0, and we all know the Mormons aren't intimidated by anyone. They've also been surprisingly good on defense. One of the games was against Wyoming, but it was on the road in a tough environment and they handled it. They also won a tough game with SMU and held their offense to almost nothing. K State will try to run it, but they've been pretty stout so far and are 5th in the country in overall yards per play. I think they're line in this game, so I'll definitely take the 7.

Nice to have a game where my team had everything go their way. BYU had under 300 yards, but the fields were so short and they had two non offensive TDs so it's not surprising. K State is not a team to be trusted as a road dog. That probably seems obvious, but it should be noted regardless. Johnson was not good.
 
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I was mulling over Tennessee but ended up not writing it up. It's ok. I was close to Ga Tech too. That would have been a tough one.
 
10-6 for the week , and I went to bed thinking ECU was going to come through but woke up to that collapse. I'll take anything positive with as bad as it went in the previous two weeks. 27-30 for the year. I'm adding recap comments to the posts with plays in them.

I'm also going to try to be more active in the forum this week. Sorry that I haven't visited other threads as often this year.
 
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