Week 4 What Are We Learning

VirginiaCavs

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Chargers and Jaguars provide good reminders not to emphasize too heavily the week before.

Kenny Pickett has arrived. Finally.

How crucial are (often bad) decisions made a couple yards from the opponent's end zone..both Cleveland and Baltimore were hurt critically by not taking the field goal

Small dose of reality for Lions and Jags, though both teams still offer plenty of promise going forward.
 
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Never ever lay points with Detroit when they are playing 11 v 11 against an NFL team.

Fade Baltimore in second halves.
 
Lamar Jackson is a great athlete, one of the best the league has seen. But he can't be trusted to make good decisions at the position where that matters most.

Not a new revelation.
 
The Bills defense is for real

If this team was 100%, I'd be willing to lay damn near -7 in the blind every week.

Also, Baltimore absolutely should have let them score, and not just because I had a piece of that over. Which, they scored 30 in the first half and somehow really never threatened.
 
I watched a lot of Arizona vs. Carolina today so you didn't have to. Thankfully I was on AZ, but let me just tell you, these two teams suck out loud.

It's strange because even though Carolina brought in a new QB, one who has some talent, they seem to have exactly the same offense as last year. The entire thing runs through McCaffrey and the moment you take him away, Carolina is thunderfucked. What's also nuts about that is, that's not a guy who's proven he can stay healthy. So why are you relying on him for basically all of your offense?

Carolina's defense is fine, but nothing spectacular. I feel like you can kind of confidently lay -3 against this team pretty much every week and you'll win more than you will lose. The one thing that Baker gives them though is the ability to score in the second half when they've already fallen behind. I've seen a good bit of Carolina this year as I've been involved in three of their games so far. Essentially their gameplan is: DO NOT TRUST BAKER MAYFIELD, GET THE BALL TO CMC. But then, when they fall behind by like 7+, that's when they realize they're kind of fucked and so they take the leash off of Baker and just let him do dumb shit.

Why I didn't bet the second half over in this game today I will never know.

As for Arizona, to me their situation is even sadder than Carolina, if you can believe it. Mainly because they do have a bunch of talent. And yes, a lot of that talent is hurt right now, but they still have talent. And yet, Murray and Kingsbury are CLEARLY not on the same page. There was a point in this game where I kind of felt like Murray was simply going to stop listening to the sideline all together. The disconnect between them really jumps through the TV.

Anyway, AZ won, and some of that was just them out-talenting Carolina, but a lot of that was Carolina being like a six win team. I wouldn't trust this Arizona team for shit. But again, I would look at their second halves. They did it today, they did it against the Raiders. Once they cycle through all the plays that Cliff calls and Murray hates, they seem to get back to what makes that team fun to watch, giving the ball to Murray and letting him do his thing. Again, today was sort of the perfect storm for a second half over, and Joe blew it. But that these two teams suck, and that they will score and be scored on in the second half of games is something I learned today.
 
I should say, I also watched the Birds. This team is good. They're not even fully healthy, who is, but man they're fun and they're good. Also, this is a team where the coach and the QB really do seem like they're on the same page. Also, watching this team you see why Hurts made such a huge leap this year in such a short span of time.

One thing Philly has done well going back to the Andy Reid era, is get their QB a really good security blanket at TE. We're in the fourth generation of this if I'm not mistaken. Chad Lewis to Brent Celek to Zach Ertz to Dallas Goddert. It's a whole thing. But what's made that work even better is the trade for AJ Brown. Because Hurts knows and trusts Brown, suddenly this team has two security blankets out there pretty much at all times for Jalen to throw to. Add in that Devonta Smith is a fantastic route runner with great hands and you can see where the problem starts.

But then you add in one of the best OLs in football and a solid running game—and a QB who is perfectly happy to run RPOs and this offense is going to get theirs.

How were they behind by 14 like two minutes in? A pick six off a tipped ball, a three and out, and a solid drive by Jax. But the Birds didn't panic and in the end talent won out.

But I will tell you the same thing about Jacksonville this week that I said about them last week. Jacksonville is for real. They're still really young and they're putting it together so they're not going to win a ton of games. But their coaching is light years better now than it was, Lawrence seems like he's getting better every week, and sooner than later this team is going to be pretty good. In the meantime, they're going to be a really tough out.

Oh, and speaking of Doug Petersen, one other thing we learned today judging by the post-game love he got from so many Eagles' players. The problem was fucking Carson Wentz. That fucknugget.

Which, I guess, could lead me to talk about Washington, but why. That team sucks. Carson Wentz is a cancer, and I feel like today was the last day you could make a realistic case for betting on him with this Washington team. There may be spots later in the year where you want to bet against someone Washington is playing, and I'm sure he'll have one or two games this year where he goes for four TDs and puts up 30+, but he sucks, Washington sucks, and they look like a straight fade.
 
I should say, I also watched the Birds. This team is good. They're not even fully healthy, who is, but man they're fun and they're good. Also, this is a team where the coach and the QB really do seem like they're on the same page. Also, watching this team you see why Hurts made such a huge leap this year in such a short span of time.

One thing Philly has done well going back to the Andy Reid era, is get their QB a really good security blanket at TE. We're in the fourth generation of this if I'm not mistaken. Chad Lewis to Brent Celek to Zach Ertz to Dallas Goddert. It's a whole thing. But what's made that work even better is the trade for AJ Brown. Because Hurts knows and trusts Brown, suddenly this team has two security blankets out there pretty much at all times for Jalen to throw to. Add in that Devonta Smith is a fantastic route runner with great hands and you can see where the problem starts.

But then you add in one of the best OLs in football and a solid running game—and a QB who is perfectly happy to run RPOs and this offense is going to get theirs.

How were they behind by 14 like two minutes in? A pick six off a tipped ball, a three and out, and a solid drive by Jax. But the Birds didn't panic and in the end talent won out.

But I will tell you the same thing about Jacksonville this week that I said about them last week. Jacksonville is for real. They're still really young and they're putting it together so they're not going to win a ton of games. But their coaching is light years better now than it was, Lawrence seems like he's getting better every week, and sooner than later this team is going to be pretty good. In the meantime, they're going to be a really tough out.

Oh, and speaking of Doug Petersen, one other thing we learned today judging by the post-game love he got from so many Eagles' players. The problem was fucking Carson Wentz. That fucknugget.

Which, I guess, could lead me to talk about Washington, but why. That team sucks. Carson Wentz is a cancer, and I feel like today was the last day you could make a realistic case for betting on him with this Washington team. There may be spots later in the year where you want to bet against someone Washington is playing, and I'm sure he'll have one or two games this year where he goes for four TDs and puts up 30+, but he sucks, Washington sucks, and they look like a straight fade.
I wasnt a full believer on the eagles hype this offseason, but they are legit and the hurts leap is real, so much depth too. Could make the case they should be nfc favorites right now

Them vs cowboys will be fun because say what you will about dak, cowboys defense is really good

Lawrence too, hes not gonna be great every week yet, his wr1 is christian kirk..., but people who ignore jax are gonna look in december and see him with 4000 yards and 25+ tuddys and not have noticed hes gotten so much better. Jags are 2 years away from contending imo if they hit on some drafts
 
I wasnt a full believer on the eagles hype this offseason, but they are legit and the hurts leap is real, so much depth too. Could make the case they should be nfc favorites right now

Them vs cowboys will be fun because say what you will about dak, cowboys defense is really good

Lawrence too, hes not gonna be great every week yet, his wr1 is christian kirk..., but people who ignore jax are gonna look in december and see him with 4000 yards and 25+ tuddys and not have noticed hes gotten so much better. Jags are 2 years away from contending imo if they hit on some drafts
Eagles are my team and I’m always very skeptical about them. However I’m slowly beginning to believe. I knew our offense would be good, but our D has really surprised me. Can’t wait for the Dallas games. We owe them for 2 beat downs last year.
 
Teams not taking 3pts is the new dumb. With an 8pt lead late 4th, Philly could have kicked a fg under 40 yards to ice it but instead went for it and was stopped.
I see lots of high spreads next week that can be 13pt teased to 20+ pts vs the likes of Jacksonville, Green Bay on a neutral field who struggled vs the Pats and their 3rd string QB, Tampa Bay and Minnesota.
Parity is what the NFL wants and mediocrity is what we’re seeing so take them points.
 
I should say, I also watched the Birds. This team is good. They're not even fully healthy, who is, but man they're fun and they're good. Also, this is a team where the coach and the QB really do seem like they're on the same page. Also, watching this team you see why Hurts made such a huge leap this year in such a short span of time.

One thing Philly has done well going back to the Andy Reid era, is get their QB a really good security blanket at TE. We're in the fourth generation of this if I'm not mistaken. Chad Lewis to Brent Celek to Zach Ertz to Dallas Goddert. It's a whole thing. But what's made that work even better is the trade for AJ Brown. Because Hurts knows and trusts Brown, suddenly this team has two security blankets out there pretty much at all times for Jalen to throw to. Add in that Devonta Smith is a fantastic route runner with great hands and you can see where the problem starts.

But then you add in one of the best OLs in football and a solid running game—and a QB who is perfectly happy to run RPOs and this offense is going to get theirs.

How were they behind by 14 like two minutes in? A pick six off a tipped ball, a three and out, and a solid drive by Jax. But the Birds didn't panic and in the end talent won out.

But I will tell you the same thing about Jacksonville this week that I said about them last week. Jacksonville is for real. They're still really young and they're putting it together so they're not going to win a ton of games. But their coaching is light years better now than it was, Lawrence seems like he's getting better every week, and sooner than later this team is going to be pretty good. In the meantime, they're going to be a really tough out.

Oh, and speaking of Doug Petersen, one other thing we learned today judging by the post-game love he got from so many Eagles' players. The problem was fucking Carson Wentz. That fucknugget.

Which, I guess, could lead me to talk about Washington, but why. That team sucks. Carson Wentz is a cancer, and I feel like today was the last day you could make a realistic case for betting on him with this Washington team. There may be spots later in the year where you want to bet against someone Washington is playing, and I'm sure he'll have one or two games this year where he goes for four TDs and puts up 30+, but he sucks, Washington sucks, and they look like a straight fade.
Yep Lawrence lost FOUR fumbles and they still nearly covered. That shouldn’t happen again, they’ll be fine
 
Falcons ran the ball 14 straight times including a 10 play 75 yard td drive.

Mariota can't hit the broadside of the barn and can't hold on to the ball to save his life, but this team is going to give a few teams some problems.
 
Can’t wait for the Dallas games. We owe them for 2 beat downs last year.

This. I selfishly hope Dak isn't at 100% for this game and plays anyway. Because his record against the Birds is clear, and it's not good for us. We owe him.

Also, I need this Cowboys team to start doing some losing for my season wins ticket.
 
Teams not taking 3pts is the new dumb. With an 8pt lead late 4th, Philly could have kicked a fg under 40 yards to ice it but instead went for it and was stopped.
I see lots of high spreads next week that can be 13pt teased to 20+ pts vs the likes of Jacksonville, Green Bay on a neutral field who struggled vs the Pats and their 3rd string QB, Tampa Bay and Minnesota.
Parity is what the NFL wants and mediocrity is what we’re seeing so take them points.

I agree with this. Less so in Philly because Elliot had taken a hit on his previous FG so they may have been being sort of cautious. But I'm pretty sure the entire first half of the Arizona game was defined by both AZ and Carolina failing on fourth down. And of course there's the argument that Baltimore should have kicked it, no matter how they feel about their defense.

Take points. Not every time, but man, stop leaving easy points out on the field.
 
I agree with this. Less so in Philly because Elliot had taken a hit on his previous FG so they may have been being sort of cautious. But I'm pretty sure the entire first half of the Arizona game was defined by both AZ and Carolina failing on fourth down. And of course there's the argument that Baltimore should have kicked it, no matter how they feel about their defense.

Take points. Not every time, but man, stop leaving easy points out on the field.
Beak to beak next Sunday, lez do this!
 
Beak to beak next Sunday, lez do this!

*throws birdseed in your direction*

Without really looking at it, my guess is I may be on that over, too. Philly's been good for like 24 a game. I'm not sure why that would change here.
 
Offenses worth trusting:
- Detroit - when you can put up 45 without your best WR and RB, you've got something
- Philly - they have the best balance in the league, a top 5 rushing O combined with a top 10 passing O
- Buffalo - Allen is Superman until he shows otherwise
- Green Bay - the kiddie WRs are starting to step up for Rodgers, they already have the smash and dash running game
- KC - Mahomes is spreading it around while giving Kelce a fat share, while CEH looks like his 2020 version

Defenses worth trusting:
- Buffalo - clamping down on teams when they need to
- Philly - combination of a sack hungry DL and lockdown corners is wrecking havoc
- Dallas/Denver/Green Bay - all playing great against the pass but a little susceptible vs a strong running team. They keep it out of the end zone though.

Other interesting teams:
- NY Giants, Cleveland, Chicago and Atlanta - four teams trying to turn the clock back to 1972, top 4 run offenses with minimal passing attacks. Somehow they're all at .500 or better, which goes to show that even a bad identity is better than no identity.
- Miami, Tampa, LA Chargers and Rams - four teams that are really heavy on the pass/run ratio with an interesting group of QBs: the ageless legend, the super bowl winning QB with an elbow issue, the young stud thrower and the injury prone lefty. Do they all hold up for the full season?
- Indy looks crazily disfunctional, which is odd considering they came into the season with THE superstar RB, a ready made #1 WR and were bringing in a former MVP at QB
- Baltimore's D has been shockingly bad, really weird considering they lead the league in INTs and are one of the lead in force fumbles.
- Tennessee has that do just enough to win look again. They're 3-1 if Bullock can hit a FG.
- Cincinnati looks like they'll be around all year. They're 3-1 if they had a good backup long snapper.

The phrase "Its a week to week league" has never been more true. String together 3 or 4 wins and you'll rise quickly this year.
 
This. I selfishly hope Dak isn't at 100% for this game and plays anyway. Because his record against the Birds is clear, and it's not good for us. We owe him.

Also, I need this Cowboys team to start doing some losing for my season wins ticket.
Me too. Crap I forgot about that. Have them u10.5 I think
 
I love that @Gandolf post and will get back to it, but two things for now:

The Donks just lost Javonte Williams at RB for the rest of the season. This is a huge blow. The only reason it's not completely crushing is because their coaching is so bad they weren't even leaning on him the way they should.

And the Falcons put Cordelle Patterson on IR so he's out for a while.

I may have misspelled both of their names, btw. So, sorry to those dudes if they read CTG.
 
I love that @Gandolf post and will get back to it, but two things for now:

The Donks just lost Javonte Williams at RB for the rest of the season. This is a huge blow. The only reason it's not completely crushing is because their coaching is so bad they weren't even leaning on him the way they should.

And the Falcons put Cordelle Patterson on IR so he's out for a while.

I may have misspelled both of their names, btw. So, sorry to those dudes if they read CTG.
Wonder how long it takes for Ridder to get in a game
 
If you have the luxury of carrying a back up long snapper you instantly sail into first place.
 
Wonder how long it takes for Ridder to get in a game
The Falcons screwing around and winning probably delays Ridder playing for now.

Foe me their season was to determine if they had something in Ridder or if they need to draft Stroud or Young. Well they've probably already blown that. They look like they may win 7+ games.

Maybe Smith already knows what he has in Ridder. Idk. But watching preseason I would say Ridder probably already can do what Mariota can. Just my 2 cents.
 
Also, are the Steelers seriously going to throw Pickett to the wolves, letting him start vs Buffalo, TB, Miami, Philly?

I get Trubisky sucks but this just seems like a recipe for disaster for Pickett.
 
Also, are the Steelers seriously going to throw Pickett to the wolves, letting him start vs Buffalo, TB, Miami, Philly?

I get Trubisky sucks but this just seems like a recipe for disaster for Pickett.
Pickett might be better than expected this week simply because there's not much tape on him. From what I saw of him in the preseason it will be a lot of simple one read throws feeding Najee swinging out of the backfield, some quick screens to Diontae, timing throws on square outs and back shoulder, quick hitter slants to the slot or TE, and the occasional deep shot looking for single coverage. They'll also run a few boot action plays with again simple throws. I don't see him standing still in the pocket reading progressions. He'll probably throw for a high percentage early simply because of so many short throws.

If you equate it to a pitcher, it will be a junk ball thrower like Jamie Moyer with a fastball thrown once every other inning just to keep hitters honest.
 
The Falcons screwing around and winning probably delays Ridder playing for now.

Foe me their season was to determine if they had something in Ridder or if they need to draft Stroud or Young. Well they've probably already blown that. They look like they may win 7+ games.

Maybe Smith already knows what he has in Ridder. Idk. But watching preseason I would say Ridder probably already can do what Mariota can. Just my 2 cents.
Ya I was really impressed with him, I like Mariota as a high quality backup

But hes not the future and Falcons arent winning super bowl
 
Pickett might be better than expected this week simply because there's not much tape on him. From what I saw of him in the preseason it will be a lot of simple one read throws feeding Najee swinging out of the backfield, some quick screens to Diontae, timing throws on square outs and back shoulder, quick hitter slants to the slot or TE, and the occasional deep shot looking for single coverage. They'll also run a few boot action plays with again simple throws. I don't see him standing still in the pocket reading progressions. He'll probably throw for a high percentage early simply because of so many short throws.

If you equate it to a pitcher, it will be a junk ball thrower like Jamie Moyer with a fastball thrown once every other inning just to keep hitters honest.
I saw his target share was 60% of passes either to friermuth or Pickens, only one game and it wasnt a gameplan installed for him, but was surprised how little najee was involved in passing game when with ben he was
 
I saw his target share was 60% of passes either to friermuth or Pickens, only one game and it wasnt a gameplan installed for him, but was surprised how little najee was involved in passing game when with ben he was
Steelers aren't really much of a screen team. Ben would use Najee as a safety valve when nobody was open or in no huddle. As he got older he checked it down more.

30+ Ben would check it down to Bell, Najee or other RBs 5 or more times a game on average. Young Ben would use his legs more and only threw to RBs about 3 times a game. I think that's what we'll see from Pickett.

From a fantasy perspective, Najee's value dips a little unless he can run the ball better than that sucky 3.5 ypc he has. Pickens will go up since he seems to be on the same rookie page with Pickett. Diontae dips because of a few less passes and more targets for Pickett, but he's already the short pass guy with 9.0 ypc. Claypool falls off the map. Freiermuth ticks up a little mainly because he's a big red zone threat.
 
Who's starting at QB for giants this week?

Schefty says jones and tyrod both injured, didnt say out for week yet, and jake fromm coming in for workout
 
Surprised how high up cincy is

Seahawks only forcing punts 6% is pitiful

FeOki0NWQAMrewl
 
Green Bay vs New York Giants in London
- Two teams that force about 20% punt rate on average. (top quarter of league)
- Force about 10% FG rate on average (top third of league)
- Force about 4% Turnovers on average (bottom quarter of league)
- Both teams are mid-pack in plays per game
- Both teams are in the top quarter in rushes per game
- Did I mention they're playing in London?

To me that means long fields, clocking run drives.....how does this one get over 41?
 
One thing I learned this week is there's all kinds of Kay Adams Up & Adams spots that pop up on Pro Football Reference. If she's your type (and why wouldn't she be), enjoy!
 
One thing I learned this week is there's all kinds of Kay Adams Up & Adams spots that pop up on Pro Football Reference. If she's your type (and why wouldn't she be), enjoy!
Her agent should be fired

She quit gmfb/nfl network assuming she had the amazon hosting job in the bag and charissa thompson grabbed it, now shes gotta wait out a job on fox, cbs, or nbc while doing a FanDuel youtube show

Besides being incredibly attractive, shes really good at what she does and knows football, hope she gets something better soon
 
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