Week 4 Thursday Final Picks

[Sammy Meatballs]

In the early game I like the underdog Bombers to win in Montreal. I took them at +3 and also some on the moneyline for this game.

Winnipeg leads the Cfl in offence this year, their QB GLENN has the most passing yards in the CFL. They are led by an explosive offence with receivers STEGAL, ARMSTRONG, EDWARDS and BRAZZELL. They also have the best running back in the league in Charles Roberts.

Why Winnipeg? They are simply the better football team than Montreal and are getting +3 points. Consider these facts in this game?

Montreal is missing their best defensive player Timothy STRICKLAND with a hamstring injury. Montreal is also expected to be without their second best receiver Kerry WATKINS who is the only deep threat. Also AL's Offensive lineman Paul LAMBERT is possibly out with a shin contusion. Add to the fact another O lineman was home in Ottawa with his wife who just gave birth, not sure on his status.

Strickland is like taking away a RAY LEWIS from the Baltimore Ravens super bowl teams.


For Winnipeg returns Derrick DEADLY Armstrong who is a major threat at wide receiver. He alone can be a game breaker in this game. Also Winnipeg has signed former DB Lion Sam Young to play corner for this game.

Montreal QB will have the following receiving core to throw to tomorrow.

Ric DERIVEAUX 3 games of cfl experience
Elijah THURMAN- 2nd game with the Alouettes, played on other teams
Ben CAHOON- Played many seasons with Als, very solid possession receiver
Brian BRATTON-3 games of cfl experience

It is no wonder CALVILLO throws to CAHOON on virtually every down. Problem is that Winnipeg is very physical and knows this, and has MALVEAUX and Davin BUSH to cover CAHOON. CAHOON is not fast and runs routes of 10 yards and then can make a double move and beat overly aggressive db's.

You do not lay points with an offence like this, if not for playing one good half of football vs Hamilton, Montreal has looked lost on offence, getting sacked a ridiculous 15 times in week 1 and 2 and then getting shut down by hamilton in week 3 in the 2nd half? Why does someone get sacked that many times, because no one is open, with this receiving core.

A look back at the starting receiving core of the Als in their last 2 grey cup appearances.

-2005 Watkins- Anderson-Vaughn-Stalla-Cahoon-
-2006 Watkins- Anderson-Stalla-Cahoon-Edwards
This year Watkins is injured- Traded Anderson, Stalla is gone? Edwards is on Winnipeg now? All these receivers replaced by Rik DESRIVEAUX, Elijah THURMAN who is a wideout playing slot now, and Brian BRATTON, 2 of which have 6 games of Cfl experience.


Also on the ALS defence their best Db Davis Sanchez has a heel injury.

Winnipeg may be missing its best pass rusher WALLS, but i don't think it should matter.

This line should be a pickem, and Montreal has done nothing to deserve to be favored in this game. In fact Montreal was lucky to beat Hamilton and cannot protect its QB. Calvillo cannot throw under any pressure as his receivers cannot get open.

Also Winnipeg receiver Terrence Edwards was cut by the Als last season and he had a very good game vs them in week 2. He is one of the cfl's next stars and will look to exploit the Alouettes again. MOntreal secondary has been beat by a lot of deep plays, and this Winnipeg receiving core has major deep speed.

Winnipeg has a decided advantage on offence in this game. Defensively Winnipeg should be able to contain montreal offence which is not good. Hamilton made them look good last week. You cannot throw to one 5'9 possession receiver all game against a good defence.

The only area Montreal is better in is could be special teams, and field goal kicks.

Simply put we have the advantage on offence in this game- Winnipeg
advantage on defence in this game- Winnipeg
advantage on pointspread- Winnipeg

My take is Calvillo your laying -3 here's the ball show me you can do it, if he can I would be the first to shake his hand, but I am confident that I will not be shaking his hand after tomorrow.



I am also taking the Lions over the Tigercats tomorrow at -15.

Lions are dominant at defence, and although I do not expect a top effort, they should still score in the mid to high 30's and Hamilton will not score many vs this Lions defence. The lions are already talking about not taking anyone lightly and should cover this number.

 

[E.T.G.]

sammy, great info as always. i will have a lot more to say 2morrow, little tired right now but I am locked in on BC already. The first game I am still thinking about but you make a great case

 

[E.T.G.]

Montreal is missing their best defensive player Timothy STRICKLAND with a hamstring injury. Montreal is also expected to be without their second best receiver Kerry WATKINS who is the only deep threat. Also AL's Offensive lineman Paul LAMBERT is possibly out with a shin contusion. Add to the fact another O lineman was home in Ottawa with his wife who just gave birth, not sure on his status.

Strickland is like taking away a RAY LEWIS from the Baltimore Ravens super bowl teams.

Montreal QB will have the following receiving core to throw to tomorrow.

Ric DERIVEAUX 3 games of cfl experience
Elijah THURMAN- 2nd game with the Alouettes, played on other teams
Ben CAHOON- Played many seasons with Als, very solid possession receiver
Brian BRATTON-3 games of cfl experience

It is no wonder CALVILLO throws to CAHOON on virtually every down. Problem is that Winnipeg is very physical and knows this, and has MALVEAUX and Davin BUSH to cover CAHOON. CAHOON is not fast and runs routes of 10 yards and then can make a double move and beat overly aggressive db's.

You do not lay points with an offence like this, if not for playing one good half of football vs Hamilton, Montreal has looked lost on offence, getting sacked a ridiculous 15 times in week 1 and 2 and then getting shut down by hamilton in week 3 in the 2nd half? Why does someone get sacked that many times, because no one is open, with this receiving core.

A look back at the starting receiving core of the Als in their last 2 grey cup appearances.

-2005 Watkins- Anderson-Vaughn-Stalla-Cahoon-
-2006 Watkins- Anderson-Stalla-Cahoon-Edwards
This year Watkins is injured- Traded Anderson, Stalla is gone? Edwards is on Winnipeg now? All these receivers replaced by Rik DESRIVEAUX, Elijah THURMAN who is a wideout playing slot now, and Brian BRATTON, 2 of which have 6 games of Cfl experience.

Also on the ALS defence their best Db Davis Sanchez has a heel injury.

Winnipeg may be missing its best pass rusher WALLS, but i don't think it should matter.

This line should be a pickem, and Montreal has done nothing to deserve to be favored in this game. In fact Montreal was lucky to beat Hamilton and cannot protect its QB. Calvillo cannot throw under any pressure as his receivers cannot get open.

Also Winnipeg receiver Terrence Edwards was cut by the Als last season and he had a very good game vs them in week 2. He is one of the cfl's next stars and will look to exploit the Alouettes again. MOntreal secondary has been beat by a lot of deep plays, and this Winnipeg receiving core has major deep speed.

Winnipeg has a decided advantage on offence in this game. Defensively Winnipeg should be able to contain montreal offence which is not good. Hamilton made them look good last week. You cannot throw to one 5'9 .

Sammy these are all pretty important notes that I noticed watching Montreal vs. Hamilton last wk. I remember seeing Strickland go out of the game so seeing that he is their Ray Lewis, it hurts to lose your best player and leader. One thing I noticed and think I mentioned during half time last wk was that although Calvillo was 13-13 at one point, it seemed almost everyone of those, if not all, went to Cahoon and were under 10yards. There were also 2 drops by the Hamilton defense which were SURE PICKS along with a few other passes that the young DB's went for the tackle instead of going for the ball. You can tell there is not much trust among the other receivers and Calvillo was even willing to force the ball in sometimes rather than find another receiver. If there was another quater last week, Montreal prob loses that game. On defense they were beat twice by a team who had not had a receiving TD prior to that game. I think I am pretty much convinced that there is a live dog in this game in Winnipeg

 

[CHAMPBASI]

Sammy,

Wicked write-up !!! You made some great points on taking Winnipeg. Like I said in another thread, I was POSITIVE Winnipeg would get the job done in Week 2 vs Montreal and had my biggest bet of the season on them. Two weeks later, all that has changed is Montreal beat the worst team in the league and Winnipeg lost to an improving Edmonton team which will hopefully serve as a wake-up call.

I'm on Winnipeg +3 and also threw Winnipeg in a 3 team 10 point teaser with BC and Cal/Toronto under.

BC huge tonight. Let's get this DOUBLEHEADER off to a good start and keep the momentum in the night game.

CHAMP

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Everything Green you bring up some good points.

The oddsmaker make a line on what they perceive is the power rating of teams in the CFl.
We analyze the games and see if we agree with the lines or spot errors.

The Key is that Vegas puts out lines based on power ratings and perception of teams in the CFl.
However what we must do is find the intrinsic value of a team, meaning we must find the true value of teams that are undervalued in Vegas's minds.

I have to think Winnipeg has extremely high intrinsic value this week vs Montreal. As Champ pointed out Winnipeg lost last week but it was due to in large part many special team blunders.
Edmonton recovered 2 onside kicks, blocked one punt and partially blocked another. Winnipeg still managed to lead that game late in the 4th Qtr.

I have been to enough CFL games to know that mediocre teams do not have home field advantages.
Look at what BC did to Sask last week!
BC won in Toronto
Toronto blew out Hamilton
Edmonton won in Winnipeg
Sask won in MOntreal

The reason is simple, teams can win on the road in the CFL, crowd is never a good reason to bet on a mediocre team.

Winnipeg was -5.5 at home and secured the cover with a 9 point win over Montreal in week 2!

Now Montreal is laying -3 at home vs Winnipeg?

Not to mention Montreal is coming into this game wounded, I will try to update the status of all the injured ALs, because they are all key players.

 

[E.T.G.]

Agree Sammy. I have a few other things to add here. I mean from what I recall watching in the Montreal-Hamilton game with my Montreal -6 ticket is that I had to look up and say "Thank You" quite a few times. Hamilton no doubt had 2 picks which they dropped, a better defense catches atleast one of them and prob returns it. Also Hamilton fumbles in their own endzone and Maas throws a pick in the endzone when he led Hamilton on a drive. Hamilton found success in the 2nd half with the running game and Winnipeg has the CFL leading rusher. The two plays where Hamilton went deep for TD's, Montreal was flat out beat on, it was just bad coverage . Montreal offense went almost non-existant in the 2nd half as well and I am convinced if there was 7-10more minutes left that they lose that game.

Power ranking wise, this puts #2 or #3 vs. #7 and they are a dog.

I think from what I researched, Montreal has historically been a good team (5 Grey Cup finals since 2000) but they are a team on the decline as their better yrs have passed them and this is not the same team anymore. Maybe people are still playing their name and not the team?

 

[Sammy Meatballs]

Power ranking wise, this puts #2 or #3 vs. #7 and they are a dog.

I think from what I researched, Montreal has historically been a good team (5 Grey Cup finals since 2000) but they are a team on the decline as their better yrs have passed them and this is not the same team anymore. Maybe people are still playing their name and not the team?<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
__________________

Well said Everything Green, you nailed it on the head, I am adding more to the Winnipeg Moneyline.

INJURY UPDATE:

Kerry WATKINS and TIM STRICKLAND are deactivated for this game. Rookie TJ HILL playing his first game in CFL replaces STRICKLAND who by the way is Defensive Captain of the Alouettes.

Ashlan Davis replaces WATKINS on offence. He is a rookie from Tulsa.

Als have a lot of players on the injured reserve, like receiver Dave Stalla, linebacker Dwayne TAYLOR and Tim CHEATWOOD, these players are all key players and have been out.

 

[keith.line]

GL Sammy.

 

[E.T.G.]

Well said Everything Green, you nailed it on the head, I am adding more to the Winnipeg Moneyline.

INJURY UPDATE:

Kerry WATKINS and TIM STRICKLAND are deactivated for this game. Rookie TJ HILL playing his first game in CFL replaces STRICKLAND who by the way is Defensive Captain of the Alouettes.

Ashlan Davis replaces WATKINS on offence. He is a rookie from Tulsa.

Als have a lot of players on the injured reserve, like receiver Dave Stalla, linebacker Dwayne TAYLOR and Tim CHEATWOOD, these players are all key players and have been out.

Thanks.. So their leading receiver (Watkins) and their leading tackler (Strickland) from last game are out.. wow I like Winnipeg a lot tonight. I like my teaser a whole lot tonight.

Winnipeg +9 & BC-10

 

[E.T.G.]

Man with Watkins out, if you double Cahoon, Cavillo will have no where to throw the ball except to the other team.

 

[moondawg]

Dang, sounds like u think the Bombers will walk all over Mont. I actually agree w/ u..........but it sounds like u may be a homer....by saying "we" a couple times.......

Or maybe I'm just misunderstanding something. One thing's for sure. Soundslike u know your CFL.........

 

[moondawg]

I'm a HUGE college and NFL bettor, but I'm trying to get into the CFL a little.
I'm just taking a guess at this..........This line would be like ND being a 3-pt fav at home to somebody like Tennessee...........ND...huge pub fav, history, blah blah against a good Tenn team, though they have their own history........