Week 4 Thoughts and Plays

[E.T.G.]

5 Unit Plays: 0-0
4 Unit Plays: 1-0
3 Unit Plays: 3-3
2 Unit Plays: 6-5
1 Unit Plays: 2-3
Plays of the Wk: 0-0
SoCar Games: 1-1
Totals: 1-0
Overall: 12-11 +4.35units
SC Season Wins O7 (3-0) 3.6 to Win 3.

Wk 1: 1-5 -10.05units
Wk 2: 7-2 +13.2units
Wk 3: 4-4 +1.2units


Lets move on to Week 4, a lot of interesting things happened in Week 3 and most of them I would just like to forget.


TAMU (3-0) @ Miami (2-1), Under 40:
I am looking at the total hard here, have no interest on a side but this game should see very little points. TAMU and Miami both will run the ball a lot, Miami should be able to put a decent stop to the rushing game and they don't blow anyone away on offense. I don't think a team hits the 20's in this game at all.

Oklahoma (3-0) @ Tulsa (2-0):
Tulsa racked up a hell of a lot of points and yards vs. BYU and they get to play their big brother this week at home. Tulsa can move the ball, yes, but Oklahoma has looked very scary on both sides of the ball this yr. Oklahoma will travel on the road for this contest and it will be their first road trip this yr vs. what should be a confident and defensively challenged Tulsa team. Oklahoma -20.

UGA (2-1) @ Alabama (3-0):
Very interesting game here and it will be a good measuring stick for this Georgia team who needs to win this SEC game. Bama comes off an emotional last second win and they have some confidence and swagger after starting the yr 3-0. Georgia comes into this game after playing a cupcake and they must play better than they did vs. SC. UGA has now lost 5 of their last 7 conference games, something to think about here. UGA +4

Syracuse (0-3) @ Louisville (3-0):
Cuse, get ready to feel the wrath of L-Ville fresh off a loss at home. I think Cuse and ND would be an OT battle if they meant up but L-Ville is going to come into this game pissed off and while their national championship hopes might of gone out the window with the loss to Kentucky, they still have the Big East to play for. L-Ville -40

ECU (1-2) @ WVU (3-0):
I had this game eyed up for a little bit now and with USF on deck for WVU, I sort of like the situation here. ECU has a decent run defense and they can pass so they are going to put some points on the board here. WVU is also 3-0 ATS thanks to the legs of Noel Devine. My thinking here is that inferior opponent on the road gets a lot of points thus making the line inflated. I would love to see ECU +24

Army (1-2) @ BC (3-0):
After jumping out to 3-0 in the ACC, Boston College now gets to enjoy the easy part of the schedule. Matt Ryan and Callender keep this offense going. Defense is stout vs. the run. Army sucks. BC -28

Wyoming (2-1) @ Ohio (2-1), Under 42:
I am looking at the total here and I am expecting a low scoring and very boring/uninteresting game. That is the basic jist of it here.

AF (3-0) @ BYU (1-2):
Well I knew BYU could score points, I didn't know they gave them up like that too. AF comes into this game actually controlling their position in the MWC with 2 conference wins already. If they took out BYU, they would no doubt be in the driver's seat of the MWC. The other part of this is that BYU after playing 2 road games comes home to Provo where they are very tough to beat. TCU was able to throw all over AF and their pass offense sucks. It is scary to think what BYU could do to the AF secondary in this matchup. I think with the AF upset over TCU and two recent losses by BYU, the line will have value but there is no doubt in my mind who is the superior team. BYU -4

Michigan St (3-0) @ ND (0-3):
I will make this short, will ND score their 1st touch down of the yr? I think Michigan St can hang about 24+ on them so how many points will ND have to score to cover the spread? 10? 13? 17? I have it as MSU -10.

Memphis (1-1) @ UCF (1-1):
UCF might be a secret no more after scaring Texas but Kevin Smith is a hell of a back and they are pretty decent C-USA team. Memphis is improved but I don't think they are as good as UCF. UCF - 6.

Miami(OH) (1-2) @ Colorado (1-2):
I want to keep an eye on the injuries for MOH but Colorado is a gradually improving team, they get the game at home, and they shouldn't be favored by that many points. Dustin Grutza straight up ripped apart the Miami secondary, I think Hawkins can do the same. Colorado -6

Penn St (3-0) @ Michigan (1-2):
Huge game in the little house with PSU coming to town sporting an undefeated record and most likely top 10 ranking. Michigan only has the Big 10 to play for right now and it appears the offense got back on track vs. the practice squad (ND). I myself, don't like Morrelli commanding my money so I am unwilling to lay a lot of points on the road with him. This is a revenge game for PS after a tough 17-10 defeat last yr. I think the ND blowout does some good for this line and keeps it short. Who has PSU played again? Thats right.... ND, Flor International, and Buffalo. PSU -4

Colo St (0-2) @ Houston (1-1):
This could be a dangerous little game for Houston if they don't watch out. Colo St is coming off a bye so they have had 2 weeks to prepare for Houston. Houston brings a balanced offense to this game vs. CSU defense which has allowed an average of 200yds to in their 2 games. Houston has a lot of speed and defense has played ok. CSU has a good QB from what I remember in the Colorado game. Houston -6

NoIlly (0-3) @ Idaho (1-2), Under 42:
I am afraid people don't realize just how bad No. Illy is. In Week 3 they lose to Eastern Michigan as 14 point favorites. In Week 2 they lost to Southern Illinois and in Wk 1 they lost to Iowa. Idaho is no super power but I am almost sure they are better than this team from the MAC. Idaho will benefit from playing the tough competition they have played and it will show in this game. I hope for a small line here... Idaho -4

Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1):
Kentucky rolls into this game with a lot of momentum. They just won a huge rivalry game and they have to feel good about themselves coming into this game. Both of these teams were just involved in last second finishes. Arkansas comes into this game feeling down after going down 17, fighting back to take the lead, and than losing in the final seconds. That type of loss can devastate a team and we will find out this week the impact it has had. I would take the team coming off the win over the team coming off the loss. Kentucky PK, +1

Troy (1-2) @ ULL (0-3):
Troy impressed me in the bowl game vs. Rice and they impressed me vs. a big and slow Ok St team. I have concerns with Omar's hand which appeared to be bothering him vs. Ok St but this team is very fast and they will benefit from having played 3 teams who are bigger and in most cases faster than them. The game will start to slow down for them as they enter conference play. This is a revenge game for ULL and the line will prob have little value after Ok States poor showing. Troy -6

FLINT (0-3) @ Kansas (3-0):
Is anyone else laughing at how Kansas is starting the yr. Games vs. Central Mich, Southern Louisianna, Toledo, and now Florida International. After 3 games we know Flint still sucks and Kansas will run the score up. Kansas -28

Arkansas St (1-1) @ Tennessee (1-2):
After getting the shit kicked out of them by Florida, I would like to think Tennessee would want to bounce back at home by rolling the competition. Arky St will be a little tougher than they expect and I think they could have some value here in this game. The downside is that bettors have not forgotten the cover vs. Texas in WK 1. Arky St +20

NMST (2-1) @ Auburn (1-2):
Auburn offense is in a world of trouble right now, it has been 3 games and they have consistently looked like shit in all 3 of them. Losing to Miss St is a way to lose your job so Tubberville better blow this team out. Can they? NMST and their offense give bettors the back door possibility. Auburn has done pretty good vs. the pass and the should be able to get pressure on Chase Holbrook but Auburn shouldn't lay many points to anyone until they prove they can score. NMST +16

Florida Atlantic (2-1) @ North Texas (0-2):
The mean green from North Texas are a bad team. Congrats to those who had FAU ml vs. Minnesota! FAU should come into this game feeling good and ready to roll their sunbelt opponents. They have what is most likely the conference's best coach and came into the yr with a ton of returning players. They are 3-0 vs. North Texas and they were also 3-1 in road conference games last yr. FAU -4

SJST (0-3) @ Utah St, Under 34:
I am willing to bet the under in this game as long as it is above that number. SJST with no run game = no offense. They play decent defense and Utah St is Utah St. Neither team has reached 20 points yet and I think this is a 17-13 type battle getting ready to brew. It might be one of the ugliest and boring games to watch of the weekend.

SMU (1-2) @ TCU (1-2):
I don't know if I could bring myself to make a bet on TCU again after what they did to me vs AF but SMU needs to be faded, especially on the road. The only problem in this game is that TCU doesn't know where the endzone is. They will play tough defense and give SMU offense hell all day but AF did a decent amount of throwing on them and their offense flat out sucks with out Aaron Brown. TCU -6

Purdue (3-0) @ Minnesota (1-2):
Purdue crushes team from the MAC and Minnesota goes down to the wire or OT with them. Minnesota sucks and Purdue can score a lot of points. Purdue -13

There are a lot of teams I just don't think I can bet this weekend like UCLA, Utah, Oregon St, Wisky/Iowa, Texas, Iowa St so I just avoid those games for the time being.

 

[Dmoney416]

Great stuff - I can't decide if NMSU will give Auburn problems or if Auburn will take out their frustrations on them.

Good to see that there was no reason to worry about Cincy once the 1st quarter ended.

 

[E.T.G.]

Early plays on..


Oky -20.........1.1unit to win 1unit
Baylor-5........1.1unit to win 1unit
ECU+25.5......1.1unit to win 1unit

 

[E.T.G.]

Locked in Plays

Oklahoma -20.........1.1unit to Win 1unit:
Short here, I know some other are looking as well but I have my eyes on the Over here in this game. If the LVSC number was 59 and that is the # off shore, I am playing. Tulsa defense will stop nothing that Oklahoma does and Oklahoma will stop some of the things Tulsa does. Tulsa will get some points on the board but enough to keep this game relatively close? I don't think so. The line is on the rise and road chalk especially this big has not treated me all that nice this yr so I am going 1 unit here. If I get my number for the over (63 or less), I will be on that as well.

Baylor -5.............1.1unit to Win 1unit:
Would go bigger here but Baylor is not a team I trust most in CFB and it is a long ways to travel to Buffalo. Add in the fact that it could be a cold night up in Buffalo and I will stay small here. Buffalo has problems with their pass defense and I first noticed that vs. RU who is not a pass happy team. I made a play on Temple thinking they would be able to throw on Buffalo and got my ass kicked. I am back trying to win money with a team who does throw the ball a lot. This is the home opener for Buffalo as well so just keeping it small.

ECU +25.5.............1.1unit to Win 1unit:
WVU has a huge revenge game with USF next week and they have been very fortunate to cover the last two spreads. While I don't expect ECU to shutdown White-Slaton-Devine, they should do some good in slowing it down just a little bit. I have had this game circled for a little bit and believe Pinkney and his arm give ECU a backdoor shot all day. They have a decent run defense and despite this game being at home for WVU, I have to take my chances getting beat by 27 points since 26 is an odd number in football.

Florida Atlantic -6........2.2unit to Win 2unit:
Almost got the number I really wanted (-4) so I can make a play here. As I said in my first post, FAU brings what is most likely the conference's best coach and came into the yr with a ton of returning players. They were expected to compete with Troy for the Sun Belt and this is the second conference game for them.. They are fresh off a win over Minnesota and should feel good with themselves before traveling to Texas. Another refreshing fact is that they were 3-1 in road conference games last yr. FAU got it done with defense and a balanced attack vs. MTSU. Against Minnesota they got it done behind the arm of Rusty Smith (quite important for another play). North Texas has problems defending the rush and pass and is 1 dimensional with a passing game only. The will run into trouble here.

Purdue -13.5.........2.2units to Win 2units
Rusty Smith of Florida Atlantic: 24/43....467yds.....5td....0int

Are you kidding me? Curtis is prob the best QB in the B10 and his offense has been on fire vs. the MAC which is what Minnesota has been struggling with.

Curtis Painter this yr: 81/117......959yds......13td.....0int

The offense is going to steam roll Minnesota out of the dome.




Very Strong Leans which I am going through:

TAMU under (43?)
Oky over (60?)
LVille -37
Indiana +3
BYU Over
UGA +3.5
PSU -3
Hous -6.5
BC -29
Kansas -30
Idaho +1
SJST +3.5 /Utah St Under (39?)
SC +16.5 / Under (45?)

 

[Dmoney416]

Thanks for the write-ups. I was mad at missing Idaho +1 as well - I guess I thought some early money would be on NIU since Idaho is Idaho. I don't mind -1 too much though as the jump from +1 to -1 is not bad. If you like them though, it is at -2 at most books I think.

Also, the Miami/A&M total has opened at 49 at BM (at 48.5 now). You had 40 listed in your first post, so I figured you would be interested in that one.

 

[E.T.G.]

Thanks for the write-ups. I was mad at missing Idaho +1 as well - I guess I thought some early money would be on NIU since Idaho is Idaho. I don't mind -1 too much though as the jump from +1 to -1 is not bad. If you like them though, it is at -2 at most books I think.

Also, the Miami/A&M total has opened at 49 at BM (at 48.5 now). You had 40 listed in your first post, so I figured you would be interested in that one.

Thanks D,

I have a few more things to go over in the Idaho game but the line is def. on the move. Thank you for the heads up on the Miami/A&M total, that is way too high imo..Which brings me to...



TAMU/Miami Under 48.5:

This Thursday night game features two teams who love to run the ball. TAMU has opened the season at 3-0 with wins over Montana St, Fresno, and ULM. Miami comes into the game at 2-1 with wins over Marshall and FLINT and an embrassing loss to Oklahoma, 51-13. This will be the first road game for TAMU and it will be the third home game for Miami. Now looking back at each teams games there are a few things to note.

TAMU vs. Montana St:Rushes = 32-267yds. Passing = 11/24 -127yds.
TAMU vs. Fresno St: Rushes = 63-318yds. Passing = 13/24 - 79yds.
TAMU vs. ULM: Rushes = 42-310yds. Passing = 19/35 - 237yds.

*Few things, I would say the 35 passing attempts was a chance for McGee and the TAMU offense to work on their vertical game in preparation for Miami. I think they would much rather throw the ball about 25times a game, tops.

Miami vs. Marshall: Rushes = 40-260yds. Passing = 9/21 - 81yds.
Miami vs. Oklahoma: Rushes = 35-52yds. Passing = 11/24 - 87yds.
Miami vs. FLINT: Rushes = 40-204yds. Passing = 10/19 - 224yds.

*Miami wants to run the ball 40 times a game and throw about 20 times.


It is my opinion that neither of these teams has the play makers at WR or the QB to really be a big threat throwing the ball. I think both offensive coordinators prefer the low risk quick routes rather than trying to get vertical. Now on to defenses.


Montana St vs. TAMU: Rushes = 38-110yds. Passing = 25/47 - 297yds.
Fresno St vs. TAMU: Rushes = 48-139yds. Passing = 21/31 - 260yds.
ULM vs. TAMU: Rushes = 44-215yds. Passing = 15/27 - 133yds.

* I think TAMU is suspect vs. the pass but Miami is not the team to exploit that, someone like Oklahoma will do that. They do a pretty decent job vs. the rush.

Marshall vs. Miami: Rushes = 32-51yds. Passing = 19/35 - 183yds.
Oklahoma vs. Miami: Rushes = 45-116yds. Passing = 22/28 - 295yds.
FLINT vs. Miami: Rushes = 37-159yds. Passing = 6/14 - 105yds.

*I think Miami has the better rush defense but they too can be thrown on. I don't feel that McGee is the QB to do it though.


I think going into this game the thing both offense do best is run the ball. The thing both defenses do best is defend the run. I would venture to say that if it is a close game, both coaches will opt to keep the ball on the ground, play field position, and let the other team make a mistake. I am not sure how much each coach trusts their QB to put the ball in the air. This is the first away game for TAMU and I think they will be conservative with the play calling. Miami's outbreak passing last week was a result of playing a very poor team, I noticed that both teams made an attempt to step their passing game up in WK3 but in a close game both will rely on what they do best which is grinding out yards. I think this total is high and a 24-21 game still falls under the amount. I don't think both teams reach the 20's in this game. I think if I had to set an O/U for Rushing attempts in this game it would be 80. I am going to the gym but I will make my final decision on this game in a little bit. I have noticed that I have done pretty good with my totals that I lean towards but I don't have much confidence when I play them, I am gradually trying to change that.

 

[E.T.G.]

TAMU/MIAMI - Under 48.5........3.3units to Win 3units.

I went to the gym thought about this total and I am just flat out confused at how it can be so high. The Under is 21-5 in Miami's last 26 home games and I am not even a trends kind of guy. The team totals are posted as:

Miami O/U 26
TAMU O/U 23.5

Miami Over 26? They scored 31 vs. Marshall, 13 vs. Oklahoma, and 23 vs. FLINT!. Don't let the TAMU scores fool you either. They scored 29 in regulation vs. Fresno, 38 vs. Montana St, and 54 vs. ULM all of which were at home. On the road last yr they scored 21, 34, 31, and 12 points vs. Kansas, Ok St, Baylor, and Texas. Miami can do a decent job to pretty good job vs. the run. TAMU has scored 139points this season and McGee has 2 touchdown passes. I had this game at 40 points, would of played under on 42, even 44 and I am quite surprised this total is so high. If both teams do reach the 20's it would take a score of 28-21, 27-23, or 26-23.. I don't see many teams scoring 29 but I guess you do it if you kick a lot of field goals or miss a few extra points along the way. 25 points is hard to do as is 22 unless you get a safety. I think a solid bet might be Miami team total under 26 as well.

 

[RetroVK]

howdy etg.

leaning with you on baylor , kansas , houston and i already played georgia.

the one that is different is indiana .... seems like a lot of folks like the dog here but i do not. care to share why you like them ?

 

[E.T.G.]

howdy etg.

leaning with you on baylor , kansas , houston and i already played georgia.

the one that is different is indiana .... seems like a lot of folks like the dog here but i do not. care to share why you like them ?

I'm not a fan of Juice at all. I have not warmed up to Illinois and I am waiting for this line to keep rising because I think it will. You can throw on Illinois and no doubt in my mind Kellen Lewis has less turnovers than Juice. The win over Cuse means nothing to me and the game vs. Missouri is ehhh. I actually felt the offense moved better with McGee but whatever. Illinois is just not a team I lay road chalk with, I wouldn't do it vs. Cuse and I won't do it here. It is basically Indiana at home or nothing for me. I can see this game going over the total though for sure. The home team has won 4 of the last 5 games in this series and Indiana won on the road at Illinois last yr.

 

[E.T.G.]

Florida -21...........2.2units to Win 2units.

I have no reason in the world to believe Ole Piss covers this spread. Ramble posted a good deal on this game, I've talked to Gator fans, read rivals interviews, there is just no way I can see Ole Miss scoring 24+ because that is what it will take to cover this spread. Yes it is the 1st road game and yes you are laying 3 TD's in a conference game however UF looks like a track team out there with an offense that is humming along doing anything it pleases.

 

[Aztec4Life]

With you on the Sooners, etg! GL bud! :cheers:

 

[E.T.G.]

Current Card:


Oky -20...............................1.1unit to win 1unit
Baylor-5..............................1.1unit to win 1unit
ECU+25.5............................1.1unit to win 1unit
Florida Atlantic -6.................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Purdue -13.5........................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Florida -21...........................2.2unitto Win 2unit
TAMU/MIAMI - Under 48.5.....3.3unit to Win 3unit


I really didn't expect to get down on this much action this early but I had to bite on some of these lines. I think I am going to see how far down this Baylor line goes. ECU is down to +24, wish I played it for 2 units at +25.5... I really don't get this under 1 bit and 12 of Miami's last 13 games have gone under 48.5 points. I am pissed at myself for missing Idaho. I could of had +1 and now the line is -3. Current games I am still evaluating..


SJST /Utah St Under (36?): I can't believe that Utah St is laying 3.5 points but I also don't know how either of these teams break 17 points.
Oky Over (59?): I wouldn't be surprised to see Oky hit 50 something in this game so its a matter of what this total comes out at.
Louisville -37: I see this number going down to -36.5 in some places and well I will welcome any drop. I just think mentally, if Louisville is up for this game, they cover this with flying covers. If there is a Kentucky hangover then it will be difficult.
UGA+3.5: My problem here is that it will be the first road start for (4) offensive linemen on UGA. The crowd will be tough and this is a fairly young squad. The rushing game is talented but is only averaging 3.7ypc. The defense is fast but undersized and I am a little worried Bama can run right at them.
PSU -3: I am waiting for this line to drop. Michigan dominating ND does nothing for me what so ever but apparently it got some people back on the wagon. This is a revenge game for PSU and they will likely face a true frosh QB. hmmm
Hou -6.5: This is a tough game to get a handle on for me and it may be best for me to skip it. I like the Houston offense and think they have a ton of speed but something about CSU worries me and Houston doesn't always come to play.
BC -28.5: My one fear when playing against service academies is that the opposing coach takes it easy on them when up big. Army flat out sucks and there is no doubt that if BC wants to win 42-7, they can. They are coming off a big win and are 3-0 in the conference so they make use this game as a practice to work some other guys in and sure up any weaknesses. I am however still drawn in to this because Matt Ryan = points.
NMST +17: I just don't accept Auburn laying 17 points to a NMST attack that can score some points. NMST is no powerhouse and Auburn might actually look like they have an offense this game but the back door is wide open.
SC +16: Spurrier is 9-1 ATS on the road at SC. I think if the defense plays very well, they can hold LSU to 30 points and under. I will touch on this game later in the week, I am also looking for the total.
Kansas -31: As I mentioned before, Kansas has no problem running it up on teams and FLINT is really weak.

 

[B.A.R.]

Great thread ETG.

Sexy first post..great reads.

That under on Thursday night is quite interesting. Especially because its so high compared to your intial thought.

BTW...PSU is more than revenge. They lost last year at home..yar before on last second TD when they were undefeated and 9 staright overall. Many years of frustration to take out. Kind of like when OSU finally broke through against UM after the decade of the 90's.

Kentucky (3-0) @ Arkansas (1-1):
Kentucky rolls into this game with a lot of momentum. They just won a huge rivalry game and they have to feel good about themselves coming into this game. Both of these teams were just involved in last second finishes. Arkansas comes into this game feeling down after going down 17, fighting back to take the lead, and than losing in the final seconds. That type of loss can devastate a team and we will find out this week the impact it has had. I would take the team coming off the win over the team coming off the loss. Kentucky PK, +1

You mentioned this but I don't see a play...

 

[E.T.G.]

BTW...PSU is more than revenge. They lost last year at home..yar before on last second TD when they were undefeated and 9 staright overall. Many years of frustration to take out. Kind of like when OSU finally broke through against UM after the decade of the 90's.



You mentioned this but I don't see a play...

Thanks for the comments. Umm with PSU, yea, I should of said it has been a long time since they won. I just see Michigan getting a lot of love this week and I am holding out hope for PSU -1, lol if not than I'll more than likely take it at -2.5 or whatever it drops to.

About the UK game.. This is a tough one for me. I felt Arkansas was overrated coming into the season and they did not deserve their previous #16 ranking. They have 2 great backs, yes, but little else on offense. Now the tricky part is predicting the emotions of 18-22 yr old kids. These two teams are as opposites right now as you can get. UK comes off a late come from behind victory over their biggest rival and Arkansas comes off a game which they were down 17, battle back to take the lead and than have the game stolen from them in the final minute. Kentucky is flying sky high and Arky is lower than the floor. I had the line at PK, +1 because I think Kentucky is a feisty team who is really confident about themselves and they have an offense that can generate a lot of points.If this game were at Kentucky, I would not make it a PK, I would of made it UK -4 or 5. Bama straight up abused the Arky secondary and Woodson is twice the QB that Parker Wilson is. Arky can run the ball all over Kentucky and Kentucky can throw all over Arky. Maybe I might have to look at the over here. I think despite McFadden's concussion, there is no doubt he plays. I was kind of shocked to see Kentucky +7 as the line since it was so far off from what I thought it would be and so I have taken a step back to look at this game some more. One would think that I leaned Kentucky +1 than I would be all over Kentucky +7 but I think I need a few more days to see where both of these teams heads are at.

 

[RetroVK]

ETG looks like we see the illinois/indiana strengths and weaknesses the same way but have afforded them different weights maybe. i agree with most of your points there.

the kentucky game is interesting. arkansas should be able to ram up kentuckys booty all night long ... but if that Bama qb could destroy the arkansas secondary, i hate to think what woodson will do to it. tough game to analyze because the emotions are hard to gauge at this point.
great stuff as per usual. look forward to more insight from you through out the week.

 

[HUNT]

Current Card:


Oky -20...............................1.1unit to win 1unit
Baylor-5..............................1.1unit to win 1unit
ECU+25.5............................1.1unit to win 1unit
Florida Atlantic -6.................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Purdue -13.5........................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Florida -21...........................2.2unitto Win 2unit
TAMU/MIAMI - Under 48.5.....3.3unit to Win 3unit


I really didn't expect to get down on this much action this early but I had to bite on some of these lines. I think I am going to see how far down this Baylor line goes. ECU is down to +24, wish I played it for 2 units at +25.5... I really don't get this under 1 bit and 12 of Miami's last 13 games have gone under 48.5 points. I am pissed at myself for missing Idaho. I could of had +1 and now the line is -3. Current games I am still evaluating..


SJST /Utah St Under (36?): I can't believe that Utah St is laying 3.5 points but I also don't know how either of these teams break 17 points.
Oky Over (59?): I wouldn't be surprised to see Oky hit 50 something in this game so its a matter of what this total comes out at.
Louisville -37: I see this number going down to -36.5 in some places and well I will welcome any drop. I just think mentally, if Louisville is up for this game, they cover this with flying covers. If there is a Kentucky hangover then it will be difficult.
UGA+3.5: My problem here is that it will be the first road start for (4) offensive linemen on UGA. The crowd will be tough and this is a fairly young squad. The rushing game is talented but is only averaging 3.7ypc. The defense is fast but undersized and I am a little worried Bama can run right at them.
PSU -3: I am waiting for this line to drop. Michigan dominating ND does nothing for me what so ever but apparently it got some people back on the wagon. This is a revenge game for PSU and they will likely face a true frosh QB. hmmm
Hou -6.5: This is a tough game to get a handle on for me and it may be best for me to skip it. I like the Houston offense and think they have a ton of speed but something about CSU worries me and Houston doesn't always come to play.
BC -28.5: My one fear when playing against service academies is that the opposing coach takes it easy on them when up big. Army flat out sucks and there is no doubt that if BC wants to win 42-7, they can. They are coming off a big win and are 3-0 in the conference so they make use this game as a practice to work some other guys in and sure up any weaknesses. I am however still drawn in to this because Matt Ryan = points.
NMST +17: I just don't accept Auburn laying 17 points to a NMST attack that can score some points. NMST is no powerhouse and Auburn might actually look like they have an offense this game but the back door is wide open.
SC +16: Spurrier is 9-1 ATS on the road at SC. I think if the defense plays very well, they can hold LSU to 30 points and under. I will touch on this game later in the week, I am also looking for the total.
Kansas -31: As I mentioned before, Kansas has no problem running it up on teams and FLINT is really weak.

I agree..and I guess we are crazy...I'm playing this saturday night when it gets to 17.5.

 

[HUNT]

oops...I was referring to your SC/LSU comments...gl ETG.

 

[ahitspat]

Great analysis on that O/U btw. I personally cant bet it because I know how bad our Defense is, but u are most likely right about the conservative play. Hope you hit it say like a 13-3 game A&M WINS... hahahha. I have lost so much faith in my team.

 

[RSMS9999]

GL this week. Lets hope the Cocks pull the shocker

 

[E.T.G.]

GL this week. Lets hope the Cocks pull the shocker

ummmmm wow, I can't even think about that. My Team Total would be all but finished and man taking down #2 would beautiful. The reality is that I'll stick to Cocks +17, lol!

 

[E.T.G.]

SJST/Utah St Under 44.........1.1unit to Win 1unit

 

[BetTheRent$]

I usually like to avoid heavy chalk, but you made a convincing case for Louisville

 

[E.T.G.]

Semi-Final Card with a lot of action this week. I don't know the reason but hopefully it is a good week starting with tonight. Added the following: Florida Team Total over 39.5, Idaho-3, Oregon-16.5, SC+17.




Oky -20...............................1.1unit to Win 1unit
Baylor-5..............................1.1unit to Win 1unit
ECU+25.5............................1.1unit to Win 1unit
Idaho -3..............................1.1unit to WiN 1unit
Florida Atlantic -6.................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Purdue -13.5........................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Florida TmTotal Over 39.5.....1.15unit to Win 1unit
Florida -21...........................2.2unit to Win 2unit
Oregon -16.5.......................2.2unit to Win 2unit
SoCar +17...........................2.4unit to Win 2unit
TAMU/MIAMI - Under 48.5.....3.3unit to Win 3unit



I don't even want to say I still have more leans but I do.

 

[AnthonyR1282]

UK vs. Arkansas

I would be very careful betting UK in this game. I know I am a Arky fan, but we gave that game away last week. 3 TO's leading to 21pts in the 1st quarter. We are a very good offensive team and I don't think anybody in the conference will stop our O. It's a home game, at night on national TV.

But a few things to make you think about. In the previous 9 season's HDN has coached at Arkansas, we have lost every SEC game following an SEC loss to open the season. So as soon as we lose once in the SEC, we almost always lose the next game as well. But I think things change this year. GHG.

 

[BigRaktor]

BOL this week ETG...like the card :cheers:

 

[JPicks]

Gotta give credit where it's due. You have a great thread week in/out. Good luck this weekend and go Vandals. What can I say I'm a closet Vandals fan.

 

[RetroVK]

Wanted to wish you good luck this weekend against the LSU tigers , etg. really enjoyed the bluechip collab. on that game. Tear your bookie a new one.

 

[reNew Orleans]

BOL this week green - nice looking card, tend to disagree with your boys vs LSU... but of course I am pretty biased towards LSU ha.