Week 4 Plays

[raems]

2-4, -2.85u ytd

Thursday Night - Bengals -7 risking 1.05 to win 1

Tough spot for Miami - grinder in Seattle, comeback at New England falls short, 74 plays and 37 mins on the field in the Miami sun for that defense against Cleveland, now a short week on the road. Just seems like a flat spot, nice congratulations for the coaching staff's first win together makes it all the better. Cincy's score against Denver this week is a little deceiving, they let the game get away from them with some foolish mistakes much more than Denver outplayed them. Cincy with two big AFC losses already, I would expect them to dial in here with a solid gameplan against a dead-legged defense and do enough to put the game away in the 4th quarter.

Eyes on Washington, Tampa, SF, AZ/Under, no need to play them yet.

 

[D-Woww]

good luck man.. think im gonna sit this one out altho you make great points. something just doesnt look right with cincy. they def missed eifert but i think were seeing just how good marvin jones was as well. just gonna sit back and wait and see if they give me a reason to trust them to lay this much at any point this year. BOL

 

[raems]

3-4, -1.85u ytd. That was a performance that usually results in a 30+ point win, Cincy left a lot of points on the board and I think that offers some value for them next week with Eifert coming back and a mini-bye to prep for a bad Cowboys defense. Neither here nor there with that a week away.

Seattle/Jets Under 40 1.1/1.

Without Decker as a slot weapon, the Jets will have an even harder time moving the ball against arguably the best defense in the league. Run blocking isn't all that good so even a TOP-centric gameplan isn't going to get them much. Team has been struggling in the red zone all year so I doubt that corrects himself against the Seahawks. Other side, Wilson hobbled which means he'll be in the pocket all day, which is terrible news with that o-line playing a 10am game against a really good D-line. Whoever scores 17 wins this one imo.

Skins -7.5 1.1/1

Teams with as little talent as this Browns team just get the shit beaten out of them a few times a year. Wish I had a ton more analysis here, but bottom line is that the 2-14 team doesn't lose every game in the last minute, they usually get crushed every so often and think it's about time that happens to them again after a few competitive weeks. Not a huge fan laying this with a flat out bad QB but so be it.

Falcons ML 1/1.4

Prove-it game for Carolina, have yet to see a single thing that suggests they should be a road favorite against a non-terrible team.

Bears ML 1/1.25

Bears starving for a win, just think these guys show up and win one of their few winnable games all year despite all the injuries. Nothing about this Lions team makes me feel confident that they're capable of winning games they "should" win.

Bucs ML 1/1.5

Tampa off a 30 point loss and another home loss as a favorite now home against the champs, expecting them to show up big. Broncos 3-0 off a big road AFC win, this feels like a spot where they can let up a little bit on the road against a non-contending NFC team. Semien as a road favorite, at some point you just have to draw a line. Tampa is talented and fully capable of beating anybody at home any week, I'll take the + money in what I feel is a 50/50 game.

Steelers -4.5 1.1/1

Steelers at home off a 30+ point loss, teams off a 30 point loss always a spot I like to back the following week. Makes it all the better that KC just got an inflated score where they did nothing but catch passes on defense for the last 45 minutes. They did their job very well against the Jets but that in no way prepares them for this Steelers attack motivated off a 3 point showing.

 

[raems]

Oh and Colts -2.5 1.1/. This Jags team continues to be outmatched at QB and still doesn't know how to win games, time for them to lose this game and give it a go with a different head coach after the bye week.

 

[raems]

7-7, -0.4u ytd. Nice to hit on a few of those home dogs instead of covering the spread without winning like earlier in the year.

Giants Team Total Under 19.5 1.15/1

I think the absence of Vereen, who is a huge safety valve in the passing game, along with a dinged up Jennings, along with that troublesome right side of the line, leaves Eli in a really tough spot tonight. Immobile QB playing behind a line with protection issues, and a GIGANTIC step up in competition when considering their last two games were against the Saints and Redskins defenses at home, leads me to believe the Giants will struggle a lot to move the ball. Yes, they have target to throw the ball to, but I don't think they'll have the requisite time to make those passes, and also expect the Vikes to win more 4 point plays in the red zone than the Giants. Type of game where the Giants definitely might hit a few big plays, but lose on a snap by snap basis. 20 is asking for a lot.

Gl guys.

 

[B.A.R.]

Nice week so far, GL tonight.

 

[raems]

8-7, +0.6u ytd.

Was interesting to see Minnesota handle a different game plan last night. Giants had extra protection in all night and just couldn't get guys open. This defense is for real, very excited for the Rhodes / Hopkins matchup Sunday.