Miami OH at Cincinnati (-11.5)
Ok, been looking at this game for the past few days and I think I have finally gotten a handle on it. First, let's check out last year's game:
Cincy won 47-10 in Miami OH.
http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/boxscore?gameId=272580193
Remember that Mauk was a late scratch with arm weakness and Grutza had to step in at the last second. It really didn't matter: Grutza ate them alive to the tune of 25-35 for 290 and two scores (Pike was 1-1 for seven yards, for what its worth).
Cincy won the TO battle 4-0. Neither team had much success running the football. Cincy outgained Miami OH by only 115 yards, but the Redhawks had some late trash yardage. Kokal started the game for Miami OH and proved to be the wrong choice by the oft-incorrect Shane Montgomery. Raudabaugh ended up throwing for 240, but needed 45 tries to do it.
What will be different in this year's game:
1. The obvious: Pike in for Grutza and Kokal won't put Miami OH in a 9-0 hole before Raudabuagh comes in.
2. Cincy's DL vs. Miami OL - both are probably weaker than last year's versions. Cincy's smothered Miami QBs last year. They could again this season, but it won't be to the same extent with the DE play that they lost. Miami had three guys returning to the OL this year, but injury problems have forced them shuffle things around and after a poor first two games, Montgomery stated that he was "encouraged" that his rebuilt OL held Charleston Southern without a sack. That is supposed to happen against winless I-AA teams. Still, though, one has to think that Cincy's DL has regressed more than Miami's OL. New DE Connor Barwin (who had 109
receiving yards in this game last year) had this quote after the Oklahoma game: "I hope that Loadholt (Oklahoma LT) is an eventual top 10 draft pick, because if he isn't, I have a lot of work to do."
3. The turnover margin: Unlikely that Cincy wins 4-0 again.
4. The penalty margin: Cincy was a penalty machine last year (and could be this year), but in last year's game, Cincy had 9 flags for 90 yards as opposed to Miami OH's 5 for 25. Probably won't see that again in Cincinnati.
5. The crowd. There were 22,000 last year in Miami and it was probably a 50/50 split. This year, it should be nearly a packed house with all pro-Cincy sentiment. This game was moved to 7:30 in order to basically guarantee a solid crowd.
What hasn't changed:
1. Cincy's back seven. Miami OH will have to dink and dunk in the passing game like last year in order to gain yardage. Miami OH could drive on Cincy, but they'll have to be patient and sustain drives.
2. Miami's entire defense. Can't help but wonder if they have regressed a little though. Torched by the Vandy running game and 27 points to a below-average I-AAer in Charleston Southern? Strange. Their "stud" trio of LBs have not been consistent enough.
3. The coaching advantage. Kelly >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Montgomery. That amount of arrows was a kind estimate, too. I may be two or three short.
4. Both team's receiving cores.
5. Like last year, I don't expect either team to have consistent success on the ground. (editorial note: John Goebel should have a firmer grasp on the Cincy RB job than he currently does. Jacob Ramsey dances around the LOS while Goebel runs forward).
6. The special teams. Rogers was 1-3 on FGs against Miami OH last year. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same out of him/Yuengling this year (Kelly has said that he may not choose a kicker for the game until it is time to send one onto the field). Basically, each team returns their guys at K and P. Miami OH needs to watch out for the Cincy return game though, as they had three kickoff returns of 50+ against Oklahoma.
7. Kelly's killer instinct. Many of Cincinnati's current scheduled games (Miami OH, Marshall) were deals that were made when D'Antonio was around. With Cincinnati making their supposed "step forward" last year, Kelly doesn't believe that they should be playing these teams in home and homes. He wants 2 for 1s here along with at least one game against a big time non-conference foe. If Cincy is up 21 early in the 4th, they won't be looking to run clock.
As for this year's game, you should see far more passing than running once again. Cincy will probably run slightly more in order to get Pike comfortable.
This is unfortunately a good spot for Miami OH - basically, they have nothing to lose and they'll have a bye week after Cincy with which to prepare for the conference schedule. On the other hand, there is some pressure on Pike in his first start. It's a tricky game, but Cincy is not only expected to win, you know that Kelly wants to win convincingly.
I do think that the Cincinnati defense will have a renewed sense of urgency after the Oklahoma game. Because of that, I have a tough time seeing Miami OH getting more than 17 here (barring Cincy turnovers deep in their own territory, of course).
So, I can't recommend Miami OH here. After all, this is basically the same Cincy team (outside of QB and DL) that beat them 47-10 last year.
I do lean Cincy, and they may be a gameday play for me. I'm still mulling that much over. I can't get over the uncertainty of Pike and how Kelly still went with Grutza even though he seemingly wanted someone other than Grutza to step up and take the job. Pike has the strong arm that Grutza lacks, but the fact that Grutza won the job must point to a deficiency in Pike's game. Tunnel vision? Decision-making? Is he unable to check off his first option? I'm not sure. Even if he has a problem, will we see it against the likes of Miami OH? Or will it not surface until the conference schedule? Or at all?
The uncertainty of Pike is keeping me away here. I wonder what the spread would be with Grutza in there. The only thing that I know about Pike is that he is a 6'5'' pocket-passer with a stronger arm than Grutza's. Hopefully I'll know a little more by 10:30 PM on Saturday.
Cincinnati 31
Miami OH 14
