Week #4 of CFB

Yanks27Sox9

Yanks27Sox9

CTG Partner
2007:
CFB ATS: 14-13-2, +0.60 units
CFB ML: 1-2, -0.75 units
CFB O/U: 7-7-0, -0.70 units
------------------------------
CFB Total/YTD: 22-22-2, -0.85 units


Still not over this past Saturday. Boise's backdoor, UCLA's debacle, and the multitude of BYU turnovers and penalties will prolly leave me with a sour taste the whole damn week. But nevertheless, there's always the following Saturday...and here's what i've got going/played so far...albeit w/ the unit amounts slightly scaled back on some games.


Thursday, 9/20

Miami (-3) over Texas A&M (-110) for 1.5 units

Friday, 9/21

Oklahoma (-20) over Tulsa (-110) for 2 units

Saturday, 9/22

Penn St (-3) over Michigan (-110) for 2 units

BYU (-9) over Air Force (-110) for 1.5 units

Central Florida (-6.5) over Memphis (-110) for 1 unit

South Florida (-13.5) over North Carolina (-110) for 2 units

Toledo (+3.5) over Iowa St (-110) for 1 unit

Ohio (+3.5) over Wyoming (-110) for 1 unit

Georgia (+3.5) over Alabama (-110) for 2 units

Connecticut (+9) over Pittsburgh (-110) for 1 unit

Washington (+6) over UCLA (-110) for 1 unit

LSU (-18) over South Carolina (-110) for 1.5 units

California (-13.5) over Arizona (-110) for 1.5 units

Texas Tech (-6) over Oklahoma St (-110) for 1 unit

Indiana (+2.5) over Illinois (-110) for 1 unit

Washington St/USC over 63.5 (-110) for 1 unit


Write-ups on these plays will follow in the coming days. And any additional plays for the week will get added into this post as well.

Hope most of you avoided the carnage that was this past weekend...and that you're already building a winning card for the coming weekend.

:cheers:
 
Last edited:
On Oky, will prob be on PSU, want to bite on BYU but was looking for a few less points, lean to USF, not sure about USF with WVU on deck, and I lean to both of the dogs you took. I just see no way how anyone can logically lay points with Iowa St this week. GL yanks
 
Thx, Aztec. Let's get all 3 of them. :cheers:

BAR...i'll write something brief on it in a few. :shake:

Thx, ETG. BYU should kill them. But then again, they shoulda also beaten Tulsa by double digits. But everything went wrong for them this past week...kinda like everything went right for AF against TCU. Will get into it more in a bit.
As for USF...normally i'd be wary of who they had on deck, but not so much here. And that's only because they had a buy week last weekend, and this is their 1st game after...and back at home...following the upset over Auburn. Think they'll be totally pumped.
And yeah...i saw Toledo got some love today from Killa, lol. But they are, as is Ohio, a decent looking home dog this week.
:cheers:



Anyways, i'll come back to my original 8 plays (played sunday afternoon/evening) in a bit. But for right now, i added 2 more (played monday evening) into the mix.

UGA (+3.5)
and
UConn (+9)

Both are added into my original post.

Georgia, plus the points.
UGA, off the loss to South Carolina, got healthy against a cream puff this past week. Bama's in the midst of 3 tough games...Arky, UGA, and FSU. But this game imo boils down to defense. UGA's defense will fare much, much better than Arkansas' did this past week against Bama's offense. And Bama's defense, as McFadden showed, can be run all over. It's been a few years, but UGA's won the last 2 meetings. And i actually think they take the thing SU...but will gladly accept the 3.5 pts, as i think it'll be a very tight game regardless.

UConn, plus the points.
UConn beat Pitt at home last year, in a high-scoring OT game. But the bottom line here (this year) is that even though Pitt has a very good defense...with the QB/offensive injuries...Pitt is just pathetic on the offensive side of the ball. That offense was horrid to watch against Michigan St this past week...and they were lucky to stay in the game. UConn's off to a decent start this year...but it's the lack of offense from Pitt that has me taking the points in this one. UConn will be able to keep it close, providing they don't repeatedly turn the ball over to that Pitt defense.

Anyways, those are my 2 additions from today. Be back in a few w/ some quick thoughts on those first 8 plays from Sunday evening.
 
back to my original 8 plays...

Miami (-3)
Had to take the Canes at home, on a Thursday nite no less. Yes, they got schooled by Oklahoma two weeks ago...but so will A&M in early November. Bottom line is that Miami can stop the run. And A&M's defense didn't show me they can stop much of anything against Fresno St a couple weeks ago.

Oklahoma (-20)
Not much to add to everyone's thoughts on this game, as it's a popular one around the forum...and rightly so, imo. The Sooner defense is jsut too good for Tulsa's spread offense. It's gonna be a long, painful day for Paul Smith. And on the other side...if Tulsa can't stop BYU, they won't be able to stop Oklahoma from thowing up a quick 50+ before putting it on cruise control.

Penn St (-3)
Another play where i'm not sure what to add. Think we were all taken aback by this low of a line. Sure, Penn St hasn't had much success (if any) against UM for some time...but what more opportune time for that to change. PSU's gotta helluva defense, facing a very green QB. They contain the UM running game, and it shouldn't even be that close.

BYU (-9)
Back on these Mormons. As i mentioned to ETG...everything went wrong for BYU against Tulsa. Turnovers and penalties...but also they were weak against the pass. Well, AF ain't gonna be passing much. They run...and BYU can handle that...as they did last year, and as they did against UCLA. BYU's beaten AF by 19, 21, and 17 pts respectively the L3 years. And i doubt they enjoy the same fortunes as they did against TCU...because BYU can throw the ball, and score.

UCF (-6.5)
The Knights have beaten Memphis the last 2 years...by 21 at home in '05, and by 2 on the road in '06. But UCF's an improved team. Very impressive against NCST and Texas, in their only 2 games of the season. They play solidly on defense, under O'Leary...and they're getting production on offense as well. Memphis, on the other hand, was less than impressive against ole Miss...and they've only played cupcakes since. They've lost 6 straight conf openers...all on the road, btw...and it's a streak that will only continue.

USF (-13.5)
Sure, the Bulls have WVU on deck. But this past week was a bye week for them, and this is their first game back (at home too) since the huge upset over Auburn. Just think they'll be pumped w/ energy, their fans will be pumped, and that they'll whip up on UNC this week..while getting ready for WVU. And besides, UNC isn't anything special. It's a young team, that's struggles on both sides of the ball...against much weaker teams than USF. And UNC has VaTech on deck themselves. USF also beat them by 17 LY, at Chapel Hill.

Toledo (+3.5)
The Rockets have been atrocious on defense this year. But Iowa St will be the first offensively challenged team they've faced so far. Plus, Toledo is historically way better at home...30-4 under Amstutz, and 20-2 after playing 2 or more on the road. Plus, Iowa St shot their load last week in their rivalry game. Before that, they looked simply pathetic. But it's also a helluva sandwich game for Iowa St...with their in-state rival last week, and mighty Nebraska on deck.

Ohio (+3.5)
Another intriguing home dog. First, Wyoming...who got lucky to get the backdoor at Boise last week. The Cowboys play good defense, but will they have enough offense? Wyoming travels poorly, with a 6-17 road record under Glenn...and 7-35 in their L42 road games. They are also 2-8 in their L10 prior to a bye week. Ohio's been solid at home under Solich...and the've won 4 of 5 non-conf home games. But the bottom line is that the Bobcats can play defense too. So much so that they gave VaTech a decent run this past week in Blacksburg. This one should be low scoring, but Ohio's gonna keep it very close...and prolly win SU.

Well, that takes care of my brief thoughts regarding the 8 plays i made Sunday afternoon/evening. Wanted to get these out there, before the week got too old. Added those other 2 plays (above) tonight...and still looking for more. Happy capping, boys & girls.
 
HUNTDOG said:
love the plays bro..cheers to a good week!
Click to expand...

thanks, hunt :cheers:


there's a few more games i got my eye on. i'm either gonna pull the trigger on them in the morning...or wait until dr bob does his thing, and hope he moves something in my favor.

but most likely will be playing Indiana (+4).
washignton st would become a play if that line happened to reach 27 or 28 points...but that's prolyl wishful thinking.
and lsu -16.5 pts really has my interest. injuries have been the only reason i haven't played this one yet.

anyways, either way, there'll be more additions tomorrow.
 
GL Yanks. Still thinking about joining you on the BYU side, but it's going to be a bit more expensive to hop aboard now. You've got some nice #'s this week.
 
more additions...

Ray, Brar...thx, guys. :cheers:

JPicks...yeah, happy w/ most of my #'s, thx. And i know what you mean about BYU. Going over 11 makes it a riskier play, for sure...but i'd prolly still be on it up to 13.
:cheers:


3 more additions today to the card...all included in the 1st post of this thread above.


LSU (-18)
See the LSU/Cock thread for some great info, and a couple very brief thoughts from me. I loved this at 16.5, having LSU winning by 24...and the cocks topping out at 9 to 10 pts. (Keepers power ratings favors LSU by 31 and change, btw.) But i hesitated, due to injuries. Well, dr boob came and screwed this line up today while i was out & about. Sent BAR a few profanity-laced texts, bemoaning this line movement. Then in the afternoon, it came back to -18...so i settled for that.
But backing LSU here, with a couple recent games in mind. First was what LSU did to VaTech. Second, was the UGA/uSC game. Compare the offensive & defensive units of all involved in these 2 games, and i think you'll see what i mean (in general)...in terms of the cocks topping out at 9 or 10 points, and losing this one by 24 to 28 points.

{but what dr boob taketh away...and he can also giveth...}

CAL (-13.5)
I wasn't goign to play this at -16.5 or -17, because Cal and Oregon meet up the following week. But along came dr boob, and this line movement left me no choice...just too much value at under 2 TDs...in a revenge game...and at home. See RJ's and Jump's thoughts on this one. No need to take this further than they have. But remember...Arizona got their asses handed to them by BYU the first week...and have only played cupcakes since. So i tend to take any improvements AZ made, since the BYU loss, with a grain of salt...and then some. They are significantly outclassed in this spot.

WASH (+6)
Was siding with UCLA to rebound...but after tonight's news, i have to go against my favorite team. First, UCLA has excellent ATS #'s against Washington...except for the last 2 years...both UW covers. Second, and most important, are injuries. Washington seems healthy...with only one backup LB who might not be able to play. UCLA is anything but healthy. Olsen is out, and will not see the field. This became definite tonight. So Cowan will be the QB. He's definitely capable, as he's the QB who beat USC last year. However, even though he's starting...he's hurt too. He's got a partially torn hammy. In fact, this Tuesday was his first practice in over a month. So i question his timing, his conditioning, his being prepared...and most of all, his health. One of Cowan's greatest assets is his mobility...and i have to assume, from everything i've read, that his mobility will be severely limited. Bottom line though...he's got a bad hammy, he'll have only practiced 4 days (in the past month +) preparing for this tough game, and there are other Bruin injuries to deal with too. UCLA's offense will also be missing a starting WR and a starting O-lineman. The receiver is one of their best...and they plan on rotating 3 kids to try to adequately fill the hole in the o-line. Add in a couple defensive injuries, and it all jsut doesn't bode well for the Bruins this week.
Don't get me wrong, i hope they win...i jsut don't see it as likely, and definitely don't see them covering the spread. In fact...for any of u ML players...you can get 2 to 1 on this game still. And if Cowan aggravates that hammy, which is a good possability, and has to leave the game...then i'd have to say that UCLA has damn near zero chance of winning SU against this imprved UW team.
Anyways...take it all for what it's worth. The Bruins are heading into this game crippled/not whole...and their coach is a moron too.


Take's care of tonight's additions. And the Canes sure started the week of right tongiht.
:cheers:
 
(almost) my final card

Got my eye on 1 more/last game...just waiting & watching the line.


Thursday, 9/20
Miami (-3) for 1.5 W = +1.50
Friday, 9/21
Oklahoma (-20) for 2 units
Saturday, 9/22
Penn St (-3) for 2 units
BYU (-9) for 1.5 units
Central Florida (-6.5) for 1 unit
South Florida (-13.5) for 2 units
Toledo (+3.5) for 1 unit
Ohio (+3.5) for 1 unit
Georgia (+3.5) for 2 units
Connecticut (+9) for 1 unit
Washington (+6) for 1 unit
LSU (-18) for 1.5 units
California (-13.5) for 1.5 units


Miami's big win tonight was a thing of beauty. Hopefully, OU will follow suit with a dominating performance on Friday.
BOL all :cheers:
 
final additions

BAR/Aztec/Hunt/Jump/BigRak...
Thanks, boys. :cheers: Helluva way for the forum to start the week.


Added 3 final plays for the week...

TT (-6)
Why? Because BAR talked me into it, describing all of Okie Lite's issues.

Indiana (+2.5)
Was always a lean (from above)...just finally played it tonight. Cost me a 1/2 point too.

WashSt/USC o63.5
Was leaning hard towards a play on Wash St, but the line didn't get high enough. (Wanted 27 or 28.) In any case, just see thsi game easily getting into the 70s.

GL today:cheers:
 
my final card

includes the 3 latest additions...


Thursday, 9/20
Miami (-3) for 1.5 for 1.5 units W = +1.50
Friday, 9/21
Oklahoma (-20) for 2 units W = +2.00
Saturday, 9/22
Penn St (-3) for 2 units
BYU (-9) for 1.5 units
Central Florida (-6.5) for 1 unit
South Florida (-13.5) for 2 units
Toledo (+3.5) for 1 unit
Ohio (+3.5) for 1 unit
Georgia (+3.5) for 2 units
Connecticut (+9) for 1 unit
Washington (+6) for 1 unit
LSU (-18) for 1.5 units
California (-13.5) for 1.5 units
Texas Tech (-6) for 1 unit
Indiana (+2.5) for 1 unit
WashSt/USC o63.5 for 1 unit


Hope we all have a great Saturday!

'an_horse'
 
btw, guys...

it's raining like a mo-fo in LA tonight. 4am, and the streets are flooded where i'm at. hasn't rained here in what seems like a year.

anyways, not sure of the day's (saturday's) forecast...but even if it stops soon, the 2 fields will be very wet at gametime.

for waht it's worth...
 
Yanks like the plays alot.Penn should handle Mich run.Im On this one basically think Penn States D over the New QB Turnovers here for short field scores,Nervous on this play though line way too low .(sucker Bet) But i just dont see Penn not covering.I like Toledo to win by DD ML .I like your Indy ,Wash ,and Georgia,Cal BOL get some of that ass!
 
The injury to Cowan is exactly why I hedged yesterday....a hammy is a bad deal...

Too bad on the injuries as I loved the spot originally..

Great start and do it up today...

Your card is fondystyle in gerth.
 
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