-week 4 nfl-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
preseason: 13-4 +9.10
sides: 14-6 +7.60
totals: 1-1 -0.10
ml dogs: 2-9 -4.90
big plays: 1-3 -4.60
ytd: +7.10

pending season win totals (props 0-4 -2.00 so far)...

Cowboys UNDER 10.5 (+120)
Raiders OVER 6.5 (+145)
Dolphins OVER 5.5 (+105)
Panthers UNDER 7.5 (+150)


Browns +3.5/ML +165

Texans +9/ML +310

Niners +6/ML +215

Titans -3

Raiders +7/ML +270

Skins +11.5 --- Cowboys -10.5

Skins/Cowboys UNDER 46

Browns/Bengals OVER 44.5

***BIG PLAY - Bears ML +150***

monday...

Steelers 1h -3

Steelers -5.5
 
Last edited:
week 3 recap:

sides: 8-1 +7.00
totals: 1-1 -0.10
ml dogs: 1-2 -0.20
this week: +6.70


still can't get the ml dogs rolling, as i laid off the two big +550s in which i almost played hoping for a split (bengals/phins) in a terrible error on my part. saints were also close, and i didn't think denver could win a shootout; they proved me wrong. still think denver is overrated and very flawed on defense. kind of forced a total on monday night, thinking the jets offense would be anemic. i was right about that, but the total was shot about 5 mins in with pk 6s and big returns and fumbles, etc etc and had no chance. also left my potential big plays on the table as regular plays, costing myself a few units as i would have went 2-1 on...

otherwise i had a very good week. i was right on my first played total of the year, easily picking up the texans/titans over. kerry collins can still put it on you, and that texans secondary is god awful. i said the vikings would be overrated this year, but after two very tough spots for them, they returned home to play an overrated carolina team. note..minn is still a tough place to play. in weeks 1 and 2, they played two teams that are probably top 5 or 6 teams in the league, both with effective passing games, minn's weakness. carolina is far from a top 5 or 6 team despite their start, and this game had a way of working these things out. the jags won outright (they always play well vs indi), bengals/phins were disgustingly inflated, steelers continued their road ats struggles in the bruce arians era, saints stayed close in a shootout, and chargers rolled, picking me up two units...overall a very well capped week. just when i was starting to think i had no idea what was going on in the nfl
 
grabbed:


Browns +3.5/ML +165

Texans +9/ML +310

Niners +6/ML +215

Titans -3

Skins +11.5

will definitely play the raiders and steelers when the numbers come out...looking at some totals too and lean falcons +7
 
Joe good luck this week.

Against on the Titans pick, but im a homer so.....

Thoughts on Browns/Bengals total? Both offenses should find a way to score this week.
 
Like a lot of your plays this week joe. I'm on Houston HUGE, although at 7.5. wasnt paying attention when those lines came out. Hopefully my niners get it done for you, I'm off it but would def lean that way. Their offense looked amazing last week- albeit it was the lions. How do you make chose your plays? just refresh the lines at 830 ET for the lines and see which ones look off? Do you set your own lines and look for value? BOL
 
Like a lot of your plays this week joe. I'm on Houston HUGE, although at 7.5. wasnt paying attention when those lines came out. Hopefully my niners get it done for you, I'm off it but would def lean that way. Their offense looked amazing last week- albeit it was the lions. How do you make chose your plays? just refresh the lines at 830 ET for the lines and see which ones look off? Do you set your own lines and look for value? BOL
 
hope we have a good week sf...i do most of my work before the season starts and look for teams that may be overrated/underrated from the offseason moves and their swot from the previous year, dead spots/schedule analysis, possible upsets, etc...then during the season i make adjustments based on a projected line i set, matchups, situation, trends, and perception/overreactions to try to find line value...hope that answers your question
 
adding:

Browns/Bengals OVER 44.5

i'm having reservations about the skins being able to score today...so i'm also going to get out of my skins play and take the under, which can hit in a cowboys rout but is the only way the skins can stay competitive, thus probably the better play...21-10 score would be perfect for me, so i still have a tiny chance of middling...

Cowboys -10.5 (-105)

Skins/Cowboys UNDER 46


final card has been updated in the first post...
 
^no, but it allowed me to get a bad number right before the drop so that's awesome...think fitzpatrick will be able to throw on the browns and we have major matchup problems with chatman
 
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