-week 4 ncaaf-

broadwayjoe

broadwayjoe

May 5Dimes MLB 2nd place
sides: 14-13 -0.30
totals: 1-1 -0.10
ml dogs: 7-8 +6.70
big plays: 3-1 +5.70
ytd: +12.00


Week 4:

Wed...

Louisville ML +160

Thurs..

Colorado +3/ML +115

Friday…

Baylor +14 (-120) (if this goes to 11, i will consider a buyback)

Saturday…

***BIG PLAY – Kent State +3***/ML +130

***BIG PLAY – San Jose St +9***/ML +310

Auburn +3

UNC -1.5

FSU -4

Toledo +6.5/ML +240

Tennessee +7.5/ML +250

Ball State +3.5/ML +145


GL:cheers:
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Week 3 Recap:
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http://www.cappingthegame.com/forum/showthread.php?t=64205
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</O>it was the type of saturday that makes you wonder why you gamble. 3 losses by 7 points combined that cost me 6 units including a big play that lost by a half point. my team got embarrassed again and worse yet i had money on them. a team that has been killing me ats for the last two years got me again in mizzou. and the worst part:

SEVEN AND TWO on leans that i didn't add to the card:

rice + L
ball st - W
south carolina + W
wisc - W
iowa - L
uconn - W
fau + W
mtsu + W
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Things I did right:

UNC moneyline (still think Rutgers has some serious fundamental flaws)..unc benefits from a much easier sos this year, and I believe will be a good bet for a lot of the year…finally got the Mouse off their back and won a semi-big game. They are rightfully favored this week, although there’s not a whole lot of value there imo

Mississippi state…just as I thought they’d stifle an offense that hasn’t come together yet, just as they did last year. Not much on offense, but not much was needed…I love this team’s defense, and believe it’s single-handedly good enough to cash as a bigger dog vs almost any team in the nation…especially at home where their terrible offense doesn’t make the opposing crowd explode

Temple…not much to say here, al golden made a couple of terrible mistakes in this game and was definitely outcoached…he’s way too aggressive in the wrong situations. Still a good coach, but was shown up by gil Saturday...should have cashed the moneyline rather easily, and the 6 pts were a gift…thanks for the last play of the game too..that was great

Byu…yeah, I think a lot of us had this right…glad I jumped on first half and game

Notre dame…impressed me even without dominating the stat sheets…nice win on the turnover battle early

San Jose St…think they will be a good bet all year…can run the ball and stop the run…qb is comin along great and is very talented…think I predicted a final of 30-10..which was pretty damn close…think they match up to stanford very well; only thing I can think of is that the books think that people see Stanford as a sweetheart type team and don't really know much about sjst...otherwise i don't see why this isn't 90/10 action on sjst

USF…maybe you have an argument that Kansas should have cashed, is the better team, whatever…I don’t buy it…grothe’s head was somewhere else, the d ends were wayyyy too aggressive in the first half, Kansas had a better gameplan, reesing had probably the best game of his career, and Kansas still covered by a half point…not happy about this at all, and I def feel I was on the right side…if usf played like they did in the 3q all game this turns into the sjst game

Things I did wrong:

Buckeyes…still liked the value, but maybe there was some homerism there…usually isn’t as I bet on florida two years ago and I’ve had a great record with this team…didn’t see this coming, and I’m not sure how they’ll respond…honestly think the big10 is up for grabs just because of their potential state of mind…I know as a buckeye fan I’m absolutely crushed so I could only imagine being part of the team

Ark St…really don’t understand the 1half performance at all…had the qb analysis wrong as leonard was outplayed which shocked me…they outgained s miss by about 100 yards and won the rushing battle like I had thought…but never led in the game as favorites…should have bought this one back at three, and there were better choices out there (obviously by my leans)…don’t think I had it that wrong, but still a clearcut loser with the wrong side

Nevada…I’m starting to really hate mizzou, but I’m sticking to my guns even after two years of getting my ass kicked betting against this team…they have major flaws on defense…you won’t convince me otherwise…their offense is incredible though, and you I think they can definitely name the number vs buffalo

Obviously a big part of what I did wrong this week was leaving those leans on the table…uconn, wiscy, and ball in particular because those were just basically due to my aversion to chalk…oh well…
 
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Week 4:

Thurs..

Colorado +3

Friday…

Baylor +14 (-120)

Saturday…

***BIG PLAY – Kent State +3***

***BIG PLAY – San Jose St +9***

 Auburn +3

UNC -1.5

FSU -4

Toledo +6.5

Tennessee +7.5
 
will add mls on tenn, sjst, kent, col, and maybe toledo

leans:

louisville +
miami oh +
iowa +
oregon
ball st -- i am definitely playing this; if it goes past 4 it may be a big play
tamu +
 
This is gonna be a better week broadway...

I don't think any TOSU fans saw that coming. IMO USC is more talented but not by that much. Offense wr's and qb definately a problem and we don't have the defense ala 02 to support our offensive talent. QB wide receiver recruiting over time should be blamed. DLine biggest waste of talent right now, individually they beat their man but don't play collectively or as a unit and move laterally as one on those sweep plays. Linebackers overrated yes but Whilhelm Hawk would look bad that Dline HAS the talent and chemistry is the issue, not to mention lack of dominant DT or safety. I think that 02 team would of been right there the other night. But right now OSU could be in for a long season, the Wisconsin game I'm already leaning Wisky. Penn State can take us too. Anybody with an offensive line.

BTW I am not sold on USC.
#1 TOSU was demoralized after Boeckman int all heads were down in lockeroom and gave up.
#2 USC can be run on. OSU was getting 5 yards a pop but defense lost that game. This USC team is not as good as USC teams of the past.
#3 This OSU team when you really think about it is garbage on offense when they can't play Tresselball. Oklahoma and some teams will present a completely different challenge.


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Love Colorado, am with you on most except Auburn.

Kent State is on my leans list but I haven't watched a game between them or UL Lafayette. Not to mention I've lost on these mid majors, Houston, two Wyoming games. I just don't have any tangible information to make that bet other than I think Kent will really run on them, Southern Miss really did, for like 400 or something ridiculous I recall.
 
i like sjsu as well ... wondering if i can get your thoughts on a couple of those games on your list ...baylor and kent state ... thanks and gl this week broadway.
 
Masoli has looked good when given the opportunities this year but obviously this will be different. Prefer him over the freshman. Team is so well coached ........
 
On San Jose State, also on Tennessee........like the Toledo play as well.

Joe, stay away from betting against Mizzou; not telling you not to pick your spots, in fact I could definitely see Buffalo covering vs. Mizzou, but I don't like it enough to bet it, but I do think this week there is a lot better shot to cover than last week.

I am telling you their defense is not as bad as people think.

I have been burned a couple of times betting against my alma mater.
 
Baylor +14

this play has less to do with baylor...although they have been impressive; even the wake game was pretty close for a while...and more to do with uconn and line value. for full disclosure, it may not be a play if it's the game is on saturday, although i had planned to fade uconn this year. baylor IS a better team than virginia...there's little doubt in my mind of that. so uconn was a soft -10.5 vs virginia, they blow them out as i had expected, and now they're -14 to a better team? makes no sense. this defense is very solid, i might even say good, but baylor will be able to score (i will break down why in a second part later in the day), so i see uconn having a tough time winning by double digits. i wrote this on uconn a couple of weeks back (some of it was geared to the temple game, so won't be applicable), and i still believe there's weight to it...better yet, they played an awful virginia team (neither the majority of fans or the books seem to know how bad they are yet), and AGAIN had a pouring down rain game vs Temple so far this year (that skews the stats and made it a lot tougher for temple to be competitive because of the type of talent on offense, but still was able to take em to OT)...sooner or later the breaks are going to run dry for this uconn team. i hope this game is one of many this year that they don't get the breaks...

from my week 2 thread:
"i think uconn is going in the right direction long term, but i think they take a step back from last year, and they could very well do so while improving...

very very favorable schedule for uconn last year, as they played nobody except virginia ooc, and they played all their big conference games at home except cinci and wva, both contests they got smacked in. duke, maine, and 2 mac teams ooc.



let's examine the road games. at duke...they trailed 14-11 at half before blowing out the lowly blue devils in the 2h. pitt - impressive. but we all know pitt and how schizo they are with the mustache. virginia - aforementioned loss. cinci - got blown out. wva - got blown out. bowl game on neutral - unimpressive loss.


okay, but broadway, they had some big time wins. louisville - very bad rain. controversy on the punt return. trailed the majority of the game. brian brohm having possibly the worst game of his collegiate career in bad rain, a bs td, and it still took until 1 minute left to get the lead for the first time. sfla - another really bad weather day ..rain. awful grothe toss for a pick 6, a sfla missed fg attributed to a lead by uconn late, and sfla actually scored the game tying td, and it was called back due to a holding call...from the 3 yard line ---which is a new one...a holding call on the 3 yd line going in?? don't see that very often. sfla played a very sloppy game in an extremely tough spot for them. they just had a crushing loss at rutgers the week before when they were the highest they had ever been ranked...and they went to cinci the next week. not that they were looking past uconn, but a really tough spot for sfla.


my intent on the above paragraph was not to dismiss uconn's performances. good teams play good enough to win games, and they did so. but it just seemed that EVERY break went their way...something like that just doesn't keep up."
 
sirwinzalot said:
On San Jose State, also on Tennessee........like the Toledo play as well.

Joe, stay away from betting against Mizzou; not telling you not to pick your spots, in fact I could definitely see Buffalo covering vs. Mizzou, but I don't like it enough to bet it, but I do think this week there is a lot better shot to cover than last week.

I am telling you their defense is not as bad as people think.

I have been burned a couple of times betting against my alma mater.
Click to expand...

i've been burnt more than enough on this team....will try to stay away from betting against them when they're in the 20s as favorites, because they can hang 70 on anyone in that range
 
rtr103 said:
Do you guys still like Oregon even though Justin Roper is out 2-4 weeks??
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i do, and i agree with vk, but that's what is keeping this from a play to a lean right now, and i doubt it will make my card. still think oregon is the only way to play this game
 
absolutely agree with your buckeyes analysis o-state. i think someone will knock usc off even with a weak pac10. we'll probably see an oklahoma/sec winner bcs championship game. wisky always plays us good, and i think they might actually just beat the shit out of like that psu night game a couple of years ago. that's probably the only other game we lose, but who knows. with no leader at the qb position strange things can happen and a team can have a lot more trouble bouncing back mentally from this. we struggle vs the spread, and michigan has a lot of time to perfect it before coming to ohio stadium. i've stuck up for that dbag boeckman for two years all the way up to that horrible pick...literally the play before i stuck up for him when he was being harassed by my party and said he was playing an okay game...then the dickhead does that and i sunk into the couch redfaced. i'm sick of it. his numbers and decisions and leadership in big games have been atrocious. he is a huge reason for the losses in the last couple of years. and he didn't do anything but NOT make the mistake vs michigan. everybody's talkin coaching, scheme, behind the times, etc...and there may be some truth to that. but i think saturday it was players not executing, and then players quitting...the most guilty of that being boeckman, at a position where it's the most contagious. it's a shame; i thought we had a legitimate chance, and we had them outgained in the first half and it looked like there was a chance to at least stay close, and then that awful decision. no excuse for that. his name fits completely -- todd. nice fuckin name.
 
Brutal week in terms of nerves for ya last week. Hopefully this week is much smoother waters. Gl Joe.
 
regarding the weekday games, we are thinking alike again...on CU +3 already and looking to bet Baylor...made this line closer to 10 myself.

Virginia (or Wassou) are the worst BCS teams.
 
Word is that Pryor took all the snaps with 1's yesterday....

Shugarts in a RT with the ones....Browning to LG....Rehring is hurt.
 
that is great news jump...he probably should have taken all of the second half snaps last week...whole attitude of both teams was different when he was in...usc was more timid and less decisive on defense, and it seemed as if the bucks' off played harder for him
 
good to hear horses, agree with you on virginia. you have any thoughts on the louisville game? probably a no play for me now, but i'd like to hear from a few people on each of the sides
 
broadwayjoe said:
that is great news jump...he probably should have taken all of the second half snaps last week...whole attitude of both teams was different when he was in...usc was more timid and less decisive on defense, and it seemed as if the bucks' off played harder for him
Click to expand...
Script is out on Todd...USC blitzed every play he was in and he's too slow in his progressions...when Pryor was in the USC ends had to play contain...it also allowed us to run the ball...

PSU, Wisky, Illy, etc will just blitz Todd...

And yes, the team wants a change...Alex Boone said so after the game...

It's time.
 
Broadway, I'm in the minority as I lean Louisville (made the line around pk) but that team isn't getting my money as they still appear rather dysfunctional. I really don't understand what the hell Kragthorpe is doing. I really do not see a large talent advantage for KSU...certainly not one to warrant laying over 4 on the road w/o playing anyone and having all those new JC's making their first div 1 road start. I can almost guarantee you I won't have a bet on this game unless Louisville makes it all the way up to +7, which won't happen.
 
Script is out on Todd...USC blitzed every play he was in and he's too slow in his progressions...when Pryor was in the USC ends had to play contain...it also allowed us to run the ball...

PSU, Wisky, Illy, etc will just blitz Todd...

And yes, the team wants a change...Alex Boone said so after the game...

It's time.

It's a roll of the dice; I could easily make a case that they have a better chance of winning in Madision with Todd under center rather than Pryor. Once Pryor becomes the man, he is going to go thru growing pains and turn the ball over...you don't want that happening in Madison or you're going to end up in the Alamo Bowl instead of the Rose Bowl.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
 
I'm sure you can make a case.....but the difference is the team has lost all confidence in Todd...that won't get it done...they need new blood for the energy..

The team was apathetic Saturday.
 
Yeah, it's amazing how many top teams USC has made to look apathetic over the last few years...

If the team is truly down on Todd and they want Pryor in there, I understand...hell, looking at the stats, he even had a higher comp% than Todd. If that is the plan, need to pull the trigger this week for Troy and get him some game reps. Even 'SC players remarked on his athleticism.
 
horses said:
Script is out on Todd...USC blitzed every play he was in and he's too slow in his progressions...when Pryor was in the USC ends had to play contain...it also allowed us to run the ball...

PSU, Wisky, Illy, etc will just blitz Todd...

And yes, the team wants a change...Alex Boone said so after the game...

It's time.

It's a roll of the dice; I could easily make a case that they have a better chance of winning in Madision with Todd under center rather than Pryor. Once Pryor becomes the man, he is going to go thru growing pains and turn the ball over...you don't want that happening in Madison or you're going to end up in the Alamo Bowl instead of the Rose Bowl.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->
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completely understand why you would think that about pryor, but i'm not necessarily convinced that he will make more mistakes in a big game than boeckman's past has shown he is capable of making. and if he makes just as many or even marginally more, he's so much more explosive and more of a threat that i think it will more than make up for it. also, he was under some strong pressure in a game that was out of hand in his first real action, and definitely could have forced some things that resulted in turnovers and he didn't. boeckman was in his 13th start (or whatever) and the game was half-way close in the first half and he did some of the dumbest stuff i've ever fucking seen. neil o'donnell stuff. his big game numbers are just so unbelievably bad, and yet i don't think they really tell the full story with all the intangibles that he lacks.
 
louisville + - added to card (ml only)
miami oh + OUT (would have loved to have 14 + here, but no such luck
iowa + OUT (huge game for pitt, iowa off rivalry game, no +3)
oregon OUT (dd chalk layoff)
ball st - added to card (points and ml...line is sharp; doubt it budges)
tamu + OUT (heard lots of compelling arguments for the other side; homefield here is huge imo, but if ark st can..well...also momentum might be pulling in two diff directions for these two teams...)<!-- / message -->
 
final card is now updated now up top..

it was tough to pull the trigger on louisville with a lot of good cappers on kstate, and a lot of good reasons to go that way, but just feel this is a much more important game to ul, kstate bad on the road historically, and they have a lot of inexperience making their first big game debut on national tv...if i can get them to have a slow start, i think it is going to be a close game, and if it's game--advantage hometeam. not a whole lot of difference talent-wise, a toss-up imo. that's good enough for a +160. we're getting some value with the bigeast struggles and the kentucky ass-whooping (which i was on the right side of for a big play btw, so i'm well aware that louisville is far from the team they have been, particularly defensively). with a lot of good cappers on the other side, i didn't wanna have two units tied up into it, which is why i didn't take the points too in this one...so i'm sure they'll lose by 3 and i'll wish i were to have taken the points. prob won't have time for a full write-up on this one, but do hope to get the rest of baylor up today during the game as well as colorado, kent, and sj state. the reason why i may buy back baylor has nothing to do with liking the play less, but everything to do with husky, bar, etc jumpin on uconn, and having a potential middle that would have a decent chance (i think uconn probably wins by 7-14, which is why i bought the half) isn't bad either. of course, paying -120 for the play in the first place takes a lot of value out of a potential middle, so i'll have to keep that in mind as well. prob won't matter, because i doubt it drops another point.
 
Broadway, killing those ML dogs and Big plays.

I really like SJST this week, glad to see your hitting the ml as well, I do think its possible here. Kent St is an interesting game that I am going to go and look at. Told my friends at WVU they are walking into a bear-trap tomorrow night, I'm certainly not willing to lay points with WV in that game. Best of luck this week, def some nice picks you got there.
 
1-0 +1.60

got hosed on a +115 ml for colorado cuz i took it at its lowpoint. anyways, i think the colorado defense finally comes together tonight....dline should be able to handle a very talented wvu oline enough for some very talented lbs to make plays. front seven has been decent, and i think there is an upgrade there this year due to the experience and depth. ranked 31 last year vs the run returning nearly their whole front 7, and opponents this year are averaging 2.5 ypc. secondary was beat up all spring which has led to some early probs, so i'm hoping this game they are all on the same page and the cohesion is there. by coming together, i mean the ability to put out fires against a team they don't necessarily match up with well on the defensive side of the ball. wvu will be able to move the ball...no doubt. speed will be a factor. i think the defense is talented enough to force a few fgs in clutch situations though in this shootout. no doubt in my mind that colorado will have the passing game going and be able to score. no doubt the crowd, travel & air, and the excitement of hosting a ranked opponent will work in colorado's favor. colorado i'd give a slight special teams advantage, passing game advantage, better rush defense (although wvu will run the ball a lot better), and a huge home field. big coaching advantage as well...if they come out agressive enough and can win the turnover battle, i think they win. i believe there's a good chance they do these things. should be an exciting game to say the least. 41-30 buffs
 
Nice work bro.

Have to say that Baylor and the UNDER are really interesting me here . Problem is I havent seen Griffin play and have no idea what type player he is . Read that he is comparable to Pat White athletically but again havent seen him.

Really agree with the UVA comparision . One thing that really stands out is Lorenzen's play . He had 3 INTs at home vs Hofstra amd another @ Temple . Last wek vs UVA he completed I think 1 pass to a WR or only WR caught a ball. Either way limited . Looking at Baylors run defense they did well vs Wake and very well vs the cupcakes they played. Granted it was home but UConn just seems way to one dimensional. The Huskies will get there yards on the ground but how are they going to be at converting 3rd downs ?

Read an article where Baylor and Briles have placed great importance on field position. Of course all teams do but the fact his players are talking about really makes me buy into the emphasis. ( Turnovers , field position and momentum his keys)

So really think while its Griffin's 1st road game the Bears are going to be "safe" football . Try to gring yards out , run the clock , keep the ball away from UConn and win the field position and turnover battle .

Think at +11 or better the Bears have value ....Uconn just isnt crisp enough IMO to be DD favs vs a team with a clue ...:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
Nice work bro.

Have to say that Baylor and the UNDER are really interesting me here . Problem is I havent seen Griffin play and have no idea what type player he is . Read that he is comparable to Pat White athletically but again havent seen him.

Really agree with the UVA comparision . One thing that really stands out is Lorenzen's play . He had 3 INTs at home vs Hofstra amd another @ Temple . Last wek vs UVA he completed I think 1 pass to a WR or only WR caught a ball. Either way limited . Looking at Baylors run defense they did well vs Wake and very well vs the cupcakes they played. Granted it was home but UConn just seems way to one dimensional. The Huskies will get there yards on the ground but how are they going to be at converting 3rd downs ?

Read an article where Baylor and Briles have placed great importance on field position. Of course all teams do but the fact his players are talking about really makes me buy into the emphasis. ( Turnovers , field position and momentum his keys)

So really think while its Griffin's 1st road game the Bears are going to be "safe" football . Try to gring yards out , run the clock , keep the ball away from UConn and win the field position and turnover battle .

Think at +11 or better the Bears have value ....Uconn just isnt crisp enough IMO to be DD favs vs a team with a clue ...:shake:
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wouldn't say that he's like pat white because i think he's more like a qb and less like a rb. he's def athletic and shifty, but i think he's a solid passer, and i'd actually like baylor to let him air it out a little bit more (not necessarily here, but as the season progresses). kid is good, and maybe i'm being presumptuous, but i don't think he'll be rattled here. he didn't make many mistakes or try to be overly agressive vs wake, so i don't expect it here. not like he's makin his debut in a 90000 seat stadium...not to say uconn isn't tough at home, but it could be worse for his first road start. briles' style of offense and the oline helps tremendously. absolutely right with lorenzen...baylor has been pretty good against the run, and i don't think lorenzen can exploit their weakness against the pass. under might not be bad if briles stays conservative which is likely...griffin and finley are more than adequate pieces of the running game and you have a good back on the other side of the ball...could see a lot of running and hopefully a close game. part of my thought process was that i can't see uconn getting to more than 31..31 is their max in my mind...think baylor can score 20-24 points. so obviously i think the total will be tight, but the closer the game, the better chance of the under imo. could definitely see a 21-17 game.

gl sportsnut, and thanks for the input

edit: guess i was a little off on the total here...
 
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thanks horses and kyle...game didn't go the way i thought it would and how it looked like it would in the 1quarter, but i'll take it...
 
how i see this baylor/uconn panning out...both teams are concentrated on running the ball and have virtually the same success. uconn struggles with mobile quarterbacks and team speed, and that's what they face here. an experienced oline and a very talented qb/rb combo along with some good athletes on the outside will allow baylor to get to 20+ points...i don't see how that's not enough to cover this number. baylor's run defense is solid, and i don't have confidence that lorenzen will make enough plays to exploit the defense. i am concerned with the first start on the road, but this is one of the best situations to make that start imo for some reasons i mentioned earlier in this thread. i can understand why you would not like baylor, but i have a hard time grasping how anyone could lay these points tonight with a team that is overrated in a conference that has struggled this year. not saying they can't cover, but they'll need 1 and maybe even 2 out of 3 of these things to do so imo: big plays on special teams, the baylor run defense to shit the bed, jumping out to a two score lead early in the first quarter to get the rook rattled and get the momentum early (by big plays/turnovers). i'll take my chances that does not happen, and i'm excited to watch this kid with for the first time that i have a rooting interest in him. 28-24 uconn
 
Joe I think you and me will be the only ones on Baylor tonight.I agree with your write up. I think Uconn wins this one but only by 8.I got it 20 to 28 Uconn.GL to us.
 
regardless of what happens the rest of the way, i'm becoming more and more impressed by this freshman and looking forward to betting on him over the years (mental note)
 
sorry for the lack of write-ups...busy week. i've scattered a few of my thoughts throughout the forum on a lot of these, and i think there is some thorough information on sj state that i won't bother being redundant on, but wanted to get some kent state thoughts...

Kent +3

i estimated this line at kent -3.5, which kind of bothers me, but obviously i'm confident in the work i did here despite that. if you are making a ull wager based on the illinois game, you should know a couple of things. ill was able to run the ball on them. they had a bigtime lookeahead as they go to penn state next week. ull scored two tds in the second half of the fourth quarter in a game that was never really in doubt....the score and even the boxscore is a little bit deceiving...there was never a time where i looked over and said, holy shit ull might beat ill. this kent state team is very hungry for a win here to build some momentum for conference play and get back to .500. they lost to two bcs teams and were actually competetive for a while in both of those games. no doubt in my mind that they are zoned in and very focused on their opponent...not off a bad loss or too good of a win, not looking ahead, etc. they are talented team, shown by their 800+ yards offensively in the last two games, but they continue last year's trend of shooting themselves in the foot. it's really unbelievable. 10 turnovers through 3 games. 7 dropped passes (wr prob the weakness of the team...when a 5'5" back is your favorite target, well...). 7? that's more than braylon edwards!!! 2 punts blocked. another concern and something i think that is weighing on the way the line has been is jarvis, who didn't play most of the game....jarvis is fine and will go today. minor ankle injury and he could have went the full game, but they just didn't wanna press it. despite not having jarvis, the running game still clicked and played well. that's the obvious thing that stands out in this game...the run defense on the ull side of the ball is awful. jarvis, edelman, flowers, terry, whoever they want should be able to run the ball right down ull's throats. kent state has just as potent of a running game than s miss, and s miss ran the ball 61 times and averaged 7 ypc. jarvis is a lot like fletcher, maybe even more slippery, and he ran for 200+ on em. ull also runs a defense heavily reliant on the blitz, which should create some big plays for edelman (who i know everybody hates, but i disagree) in the passing game. one thing is certain about this play -- kent state will be able to score, and i expect them to get to 30+

ull runs a spread, and have a similar qb to edelman actually and a back in fenroy that's not as good as jarvis, but he's solid and has some success due to the nature of the offense. i think it's safe to say that this offense is close to a one trick pony with a qb in desormeaux who is the key to their offense, who gets more carries than fenroy. for you edelman haters, it's like having a watered down edelman is the key to your offense..he's basically the same qb, only the other aspects of his running game aren't nearly as good. i don't think that ull will be able to have any success through the air, and kent might actually win the turnover battle for once. i'm not a believer in desormeaux, if you didn't notice. i'm going to have faith in my evaluation of the two qbs despite what any of you might say (haha), and i think that edelman will have a more efficient, better game than desormeaux. i think that pratt (new OC) has helped out edelman quite a bit

trend-wise nothing really stands out except bad kent state trends, which imo are meaningless because of all of the injuries they had last year. they had their 4th qb starting last year along with 3 linemen out and 4 injuries to defensive starters. they're finally healthy this year, and think they can make a run in the wide-open mac. before they got killed by the injury bug they had some good road wins last year at iowa state and at ohio. they put up points and had chances to be a lot more competitive than the score shows agains iowa state. so being on the road doesn't bother me as much. not like ull is so much tougher at home. they suck equally pretty much no matter where they play. this kent state defense is so underrated because of the fucked up situations the offense puts them in. they are nowhere near as bad as the numbers show. kent state has a talented and experienced front 7 (very good lbs) that gets pressure on the qb, and they play mostly bump and run on the outside, which usually gives them some probs with mobile qbs. i expect them to adjust that a little here and make desormeaux beat them with his arm, which is something i don't think he can do.

it's all about managing the turnover battle. even if kent loses it, they can still win the game, but they just can't have -4. if they win the turnover battle they run away with this one...

again, value in the line. ull had a "close" game at illinois, and kent state hasn't covered a lined game yet, and struggled mightily last year. overrated vs underrated.

jarvis 250+ total yards, edelman 100 rushing, 200 through the air...

kent state 41-17
 
G-Man, knew you were from the cleveland area, but didn't know it was mentor...i'm a painesville guy. resident now; born and raised. good stuff; some LAKE COUNTY representation in here

:cheers::cheers::cheers:
 
Love SJSU today too.

That line put me off Baylor last night, as dumb as it sounds if it had been around 7 or so I would have pulled the trigger on Baylor (at an open of 14 I thought I was missing something). I'm realy pissed that I passed it up, my read on UConn was correct. Glad you cashed it.

Good luck today.
 
broadwayjoe said:
wouldn't say that he's like pat white because i think he's more like a qb and less like a rb. he's def athletic and shifty, but i think he's a solid passer, and i'd actually like baylor to let him air it out a little bit more (not necessarily here, but as the season progresses). kid is good, and maybe i'm being presumptuous, but i don't think he'll be rattled here. he didn't make many mistakes or try to be overly agressive vs wake, so i don't expect it here. not like he's makin his debut in a 90000 seat stadium...not to say uconn isn't tough at home, but it could be worse for his first road start. briles' style of offense and the oline helps tremendously. absolutely right with lorenzen...baylor has been pretty good against the run, and i don't think lorenzen can exploit their weakness against the pass. under might not be bad if briles stays conservative which is likely...griffin and finley are more than adequate pieces of the running game and you have a good back on the other side of the ball...could see a lot of running and hopefully a close game. part of my thought process was that i can't see uconn getting to more than 31..31 is their max in my mind...think baylor can score 20-24 points. so obviously i think the total will be tight, but the closer the game, the better chance of the under imo. could definitely see a 21-17 game.

gl sportsnut, and thanks for the input

edit: guess i was a little off on the total here...
Click to expand...

I fucked up with the UNDER myself bro. It was to close to play either way after I had it figured out . I had the same exact feeling that Baylor would be able to keep UCOnn to 31 or less and alsmost played the TT UND for them which would have barley squeaked by . I did play Baylor over 19.5 TT so happy about that but the under busted some parlays...

Good work. Despite messing the total up the Baylor Bears were very good to me . Good Luck today :cheers:
 
well, i probably shouldn't, because i had already eliminated it from being a play earlier in the week, but i have nothing on tap at noon, and teedub got the fuckin best of me:

Iowa +1.5
 
5-0 +5.75 on the week lol


ridiculous luck there as i cashed on the extra half point that was thrown out there this morning...i will gladly take it.
 
3rd & Long said:
Love SJSU today too.

That line put me off Baylor last night, as dumb as it sounds if it had been around 7 or so I would have pulled the trigger on Baylor (at an open of 14 I thought I was missing something). I'm realy pissed that I passed it up, my read on UConn was correct. Glad you cashed it.

Good luck today.
Click to expand...

i know exactly what you're saying, happens to me as well. yeah, uconn is gonna be a good fade this year i think...just hope they keep winning (or playing tough at least) so it gets us these fat lines.

it would sure be nice if sjsu just returned the favor from last year...i'm getting kind of tense on this play...
 
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