Bills thoughts....
If they do win it's because they forced 2 turnovers, ran the ball well,and made some downfield plays all while staying turnover free.
They did it! Hit on the over last week and really saw a lot to like from this team... The secondary is better than last season's, something I would never have believed without Gilmore/Darby. White is playing great, Poyer has been putting licks on wrs since week 1 and has brought blitz pressure well when called on. The rotation on the D line has kept everyone fresh,and has been very instrumental so far. The offense looked much improved vs Denver- though Shady couldn't get it going on the ground he caught all 7 passing targets. TT had himself a very solid game, was elusive, made plays with his feet, didn't turn the ball over. Zay let him down with a couple drops, but he was still 20-26 which I will take weekly. Clay has continued to be the most consistent target.... still hated a couple offensive play calls- for instance on the first td drive Denver is stacking the box to stop Shady... TT makes 2 28 yard passing plays to get to the 12. Shady gets 1 carry and is replaced by Tolbert. in the redzone, who promptly drops a wide open td pass. They get lucky catching a deflected td, but I think longterm taking out your best offensive playmaker in scoring situations will catch up to you.
This week is obviously the biggest test for this defense. They will need to generate pressure early on Ryan to try and knock the offense out of rhythm. They held the Denver run in check, but allowed carries of 32yds, 19, and a 12 yard td run to Charles. Though so far they haven't allowed much on the ground I will play devil's advocate and say before last week they faced 2 anemic offenses. Passing D has been great, bend but don't break and very physical. Once again let me point out they have faced McCown & Simian @home, and a neutered Cam. Going otr to face off against Matt Ryan is a completely different animal. Julio and Sanu are huge, I would think they look to use that size vs our corners. DThomas had success last week I think size could be a killer here. Don't be surprised to see some p.I. calls in this one. I think the potential of Lawson being out is pretty big here- Yarbrough has played well but that is eating into our depth, as I said some of our success can be contributed to having a fresh line. Dareus should be back but has really been a non factor. I could see us really getting worn down and giving up big chunks of yardage to Freeman/Coleman. This may be the week Coleman breaks out.....
Offensively teams have been content to keep stacking the box and making TT beat them. He showed last week that he is capable, and I think he is now developing more chemistry with the wrs, particularly Matthews/Holmes. Zay has serious bust potential and looks like that dropped week 2 pass is still haunting him. Clay will have a career season. Shady is beyond due to have a breakout game, and the Bills O-line definitely has the size advantage over the Falcons dline. However, Glenn once again has been ruled out, so there is potential for the Falcons to send heat Dawkin's way. They will need to score 24+ to even have a shot.
I am seeing a lot of people grabbing the points with the Bills, citing their defense as a major reason why. I would advise against it. Buffalo otr record vs playoff teams has been pathetic for a decade. If you really think the defense keeps them in this one then Bills tt o20 would likely be a better option for reasons stated. I think they lose this game by DD and would say this may be the safest game on the card to tease down. Lean over as I said I think the defense regresses otr, but I don't know if I'll pull the trigger on the total because the Bills are more than capable of putting up a dud
