Akron (+10) ----- MASTERED
Akron ML (+305) ----- Small Potatoes
Circled it in preseason as a game I thought Marshall could drop. 1st, Marshall is really, really bad on the road....especially ATS. 2nd, I love the fact that they waxed off Ohio last week, a rival that they hadn't beaten in 3 years. So there's a chance they could come out a little flat here. On the flip side, Akron is fresh off a bye, in what is by far the biggest home game this team has played since Bowden has been here. I expect there to be a good crowd & a real fired up Zips team. Akron is not afraid to play teams better than them, they very well could have beaten Michigan last year (and Akron wasn't near as good then as they are now), & played much better against Penn St 2 weeks ago then the final score suggests (3 drives inside Penn St. 20 & only getting 3 pts). I'd really like for the Zips to get Chisholm going in the ground game as he hasn't gotten much action yet, but I also really Like Pohl at QB and think he's a better runner than many believe (which gives Marshall some problems). He also has a very experienced receiving crew, although they need to start holding on to the damn football. Defensively, it's a struggle holding Marshall in check. But if Marshall comes out flat, then I think it's a possibility that Akron can have some success. Bowden has recruited really good athletes (and also has some very highly recruits f/ transfer), and it'll be by far the most talent Marshall has seen thusfar in the year. The Zips front 7 are very underrated....good fast experienced LB's and a good DL. Secondary gives me concern, but they are also talented and very athletic. Concern = if Marshall is finally mature enough to know that they can't come out flat on the road & take games off like they have in the past, b/c if that's the case then covering this number could be tough. But I fully expect for Marshall to come out a little flat after their win last week, and the Zips to be fresh & not intimidated at all. I also think the Zips are still a little under appreciated, as I wouldn't be surprised to see them come out on top of the MAC East.
Iowa (+7) ----- REG
Iowa ML (+245) ----- Small Potatoes
Iowa has looked like a turd on offense so far. Pitt has ran all over everyone. Iowa lost last week to ISU, which I was not surprised with at all. I actually prefer it for this bet to happen. Pitt has a dominating run game, & I absolutely love the Terminator James Conner, but I feel like what Pitt does offensively plays right into Iowa's defenses hands.....Iowa has consistently proven they can stop the run. So if Iowa can slow down the run game and force Voytik to pass, then I'm not so sure that Pitt will have too much success.....he's been ineffective so far this year, and besides Boyd I don't see many other options he trusts. Iowa is bound to get Weisman going eventually, although it may not be this game I guess.....but bottom line is, that I expect both offenses to struggle a little bit running the football, and I'd rather trust Rudock over Voytik. Call my crazy. Aside from that, I see it being a very physical game, & Iowa always seems at their best when everyone is ready to sh*t on them.
Florida (+14.5) ----- REG
Florida ML (+435) ----- Very Small Potatoes
First, I'd like to thank Jimmy for talking me off my only concern with this game.
I circled this game as well, & after going back & looking at the game from last Saturday, I saw what I needed to in order to stick with this play. My biggest reason why I felt like Florida could compete in this game is b/c of the new offense Roper has installed. & although Florida was lucky to get away with a win last week, their offense was still very productive & they seem to have a good grasp of it. And that was what I wanted to see their first few games of the year in order to warrant a bet on the Gators.
I would have a hard time betting on Bama, particularly with this many points that they are giving, against a team that runs hurry up offense until Saban & company prove they can stop it or slow it down. I didn't see them do it as much as I thought they would against WVU, and Florida has better athletes & talent than WVU does.
Driskel has been effective. He still makes dumb mistakes, is probably thinking too much at times, and (my biggest concern) does not handle pressure well. But his WR's are having too many drops as well. If they can hold onto the ball then I feel like this offense could really get humming. The RB's are good & deep. The OL is good enough, but not deep. And most importantly, as I've stated, i feel like their hurry up & tempo could have enough success against Bama to cover 2 TD's.
Defensively Florida is still good. Their front 7 is good enough to slow down Bama's backs I believe. I like the match up of Dante Fowler against Cam Robinson.....although Fowler does move all over the field. The most shocking thing for me has been the secondary play of UF. Aside from VH3, the rest of the secondary have been below what I thought. They are excellent against the run, but have blown coverages in the secondary. I fully expect for VH3 to be matched up against Amari Cooper all game long, which I think will be a fantastic match up. Florida will most likely sell out to stop the run, and make Bama beat them through the air, which is completely possible, but I think they will have to have others step up besides Cooper....which we all know Bama has the talent there.
Nonetheless, Florida still has tremendous talent in the secondary that are capable of making big plays, but are also capable of busting coverage. I think a lot of this game comes down to the QB play for both teams. & I may not go as far to say that Florida will win (although I wouldn't be as stunned as most), I certainly do think that they can keep it within 2 TD's.
Maryland ML (+113) ----- REG
I MASTERED against Maryland last week, in a game that shouldn't have even been the sweat that it was for me IMO. And this week I was real close to going big on Maryland, but I'll just stick with a regular wager. Basically, I don't give a crap about Cuse running CMU into the ground last week.....the Chips didn't have by far their best 2 offensive weapons & were coming off an upset win, it was a perfect situation to dominate for Cuse that was coming off a bye week. Maryland got embarrassed last week, and I really don't like Edsall b/c he cry-babies too much, but I expect them to come out focused for this game. Cuse beat Maryland last year, but the Terps were also without their best 2 WR's & were injury riddled for the game. This year they are healthier, and I'm not so sure Cuse can contain CJ Brown....they did let Nova's QB run all over them in week 1.
North Carolina ML (+130) ----- REG
Letdown spot alert. That's the main basis behind this play.....it's totally situational. UNC are off a bye week where they should have lost to my Aztecs. ECU are off games @ S Car & @ VT where they pulled a big upset in the latter....against a Hokies team that were off a big upset lol. UNC hasn't been impressive this year, and their pass D is suspect which doesn't look good for this game....but this is college football, & these are the spots where a lot of teams drop games. So I expect for the situational play to pay off, as UNC isn't as bad a people probably think (hint:SDSU is pretty good) & they are off a bye week, against a team that is on it's last leg of a grueling non-con schedule. Oh, revenge factor for UNC also if you're into that thing.
San Diego St (+10.5) ----- REG
San Diego St ML (+325) ----- Small Potatoes
Almost took my Aztecs against UNC (would have been a HUGE win for the RSW bet), but was too concerned about their young secondary. Not necessarily their CB's, but their safeties. They are preforming better than I expected, & now I'm hoping it wasn't just for 1 game. I said preseason that this team has a lot of talent, so hopefully Rocky Long's coaching is already sticking to them. Both teams off a bye week, just like they were last year when SDSU should have won the game but gave it away at the end. So it's easy to say that SDSU has been looking forward to this & wants payback, but it's equally easy to say that OSU knows not to sleep on this team. However, the Beavs do have USC next week, so who knows if they could be looking ahead. Anyway, I think Oregon St will have major problems running the football, SDSU has a very good and deep DL, and OSU already has some injuries on a thin OL. So can Mannion beat them through the air is the question, and the answer is probably yes. I have faith in SDSU's CB's, but not quit yet their safeties, so I could see some busted plays & some inside receivers getting loose. Flipping the side of the ball, I have faith in Kaehler that he wont make stupid INT's all year long....he's a good QB, just mental mistakes sometimes. Biggest question is how do the Aztecs replace WR Ruffin, who is BY FAR their best WR and he's hurt for the majority of the year. They have good talent, hopefully they can show up to play. Main basis of the bet: I think 10 points is too much, & believe SDSU has a good chance to control the LOS both offensively and defensively. SDSU's run game has been good (as expected) & OSU still has problems on the DL IMO. If the Aztecs can limit big plays defensively, control the LOS & run the football, then I think they have a decent shot to win this football game. I also don't think SDSU is not fazed at all playing on the road against big opponents....and i get a big feeling that the team is ready for win against a power 5 team.
OU/WVU U 65 ----- Small Potatoes
Love this play, but I suck at totals so it's only small. I just don't get where everyone is saying there will be a lot of points scored. OU will most likely try to control the LOS & run the ball as much as possible. WVU can throw & put up points, but OU's DL is very very good & will probably make Trickett uneasy (even if he's getting rid of the ball fast). I could give a big write up on this game, b/c I do have lots of thoughts, so if anyone wants it let me know. But regardless, I said preseason that OU would go 11-1 & lose to either WVU, TCU, or TT on the road (right now I'd take off TT unless they figure out how to stop the run). So I expect this to be a pretty good football game, and I'm really looking forward to the Holgo vs Mike Stoops chessmatch. These types of offenses are the reason why Stoops implemented this new defense....so lets see if it pays off.
ULL (+17.5) ----- Small Potatoes
I fail to believe that ULL is as bad as they have been so far this year. Think they got in a bad spot against La Tech, & last week they were outmatched, even though they could have made that score respectable if they didn't turn it over in the red zone. Just think it's too may points, & I love Hedsputh as a coach.....and also love the fact that last year when he faced Harsin he held Arky St to their season low on offense, so he may have a coaching edge to slow them down a bit.
ML Parlay:
Va Tech, BYU, Toledo, LSU, Nebraska (+200)
I'm obviously putting that fairly decent Dog ML record up in the air this week. Rare that I only like dogs for a week....but all the favorites I did like had 1 problem: I didn't like the # they were sitting at....it was just a couple points too high for me.
