Week 4 Fading Public Dogs

nbafan88

nbafan88

Pretty much a regular
Week 4 Possibilities include


Stanford -14... I will probably be on this although I do not like the sandwich spot Stanford is in.

Michigan -6.5

Boston College -5

WVU -17... weakest of the day for me... gotta do some more research

Minnesota -10

Illinois -4

Alabama -38

Auburn -3....also qualifies as a 50 point swing play... basically one team coming off a blowout victory and the other coming off a blowout loss

Northwestern -19.5



will finalize plays before kickoffs if I am sober enough to do so :tiphat:
 
That game is ridiculous, future professional QB playing for BYU but he's not Taysom
 
clowncar said:
Correct me if I am wrong but the RLM in the BYU at Mich game is ridiculous
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haha i dont really know what you're trying to say...

yes there is RLM.... and yes it could very well be a dummy line move

is the line shady? I don't think so... but then again I dont know much about college football
 
nbafan88 said:
haha i dont really know what you're trying to say...

yes there is RLM.... and yes it could very well be a dummy line move

is the line shady? I don't think so... but then again I dont know much about college football
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\

Saying $ > quantity
 
J Galt said:
he will be a nice CFL player some day but not sure how that factors into capping this game
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You're right, I wouldn't touch this game with your money anyway, situationally way too tough to figure out...

I fucking hate BYU anyway and hope they get smoked, be shocked if Mangum isn't playing in the NFL and should be allowed to leave after this year
 
kjohnson109 said:
You're right, I wouldn't touch this game with your money anyway, situationally way too tough to figure out...

I fucking hate BYU anyway and hope they get smoked, be shocked if Mangum isn't playing in the NFL and should be allowed to leave after this year
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i was half kidding but I'd like to see a little more out of him before we start calling him a sure fire NFL guy

and he should be allowed to leave but he won't, needs some time to develop
 
Got some Stanford -13.5 -110 on northbet... they gave me $50 bucks yesterday for some reason... I will add more on Stanford later with the local. Just waiting to see what the line does.


Friday Night - 10:00 PM EST


Stanford -13.5 -110
 
How is BYU a public dog? You had some wrong public dogs last week too. Northwestern was NOT a public dog, neither was BYU and both teams covered easy as pie.
 
It's certainly not going to be 100% Gabe. And NW was a huge public dog. Just going by water cooler talk, forums, and percentages I saw.
 
Inspekdah said:
It's certainly not going to be 100% Gabe. And NW was a huge public dog. Just going by water cooler talk, forums, and percentages I saw.
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Well we'll agree to disagree there. The smart money was on NW, they won outright. Nonetheless do you think BYU is a public dog this week? Line has moved 2.5pts, all I read is how bad of a spot it is for Michigan.
 
Gabe said:
How is BYU a public dog?
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Because over 55% are on them. 62% on pregame.

Gabe said:
You had some wrong public dogs last week too. Northwestern was NOT a public dog, neither was BYU and both teams covered easy as pie.
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No I did not. Wizard posted in my thread and gave a big list. I did not say they were public dogs.


I am just listing teams that are public dogs... its just ONE factor going into taking a side.... if you want to blindly fade public dogs you can do so... or you can incorporate it however you wish with the countless other factors that go into capping a game
 
Inspekdah said:
I'm both curious as to why the Stanford line is plummeting and why everyone likes Oregon St?
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The line apparently opened at -17 which is interesting in of itself. I understand the shitty spot that Stanford is in but having an injured QB negates that letdown possibility IMO
 
Gabe said:
Well we'll agree to disagree there. The smart money was on NW, they won outright. Nonetheless do you think BYU is a public dog this week? Line has moved 2.5pts, all I read is how bad of a spot it is for Michigan.
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Doesnt mean they weren't a public darling. Because they were. And Duke should have had that game well out of reach early on but kept making mistakes. But that's why blindly playing these isn't wise and NBA acknowledges that.

BYU, yes, this week would be considered a big public dog.
 
Hogan being hurt can only help the Tree but everyone knows I think he sucks regardless of last week...but it would be Beavs or nothing for me. Stanford just not worth my money this year.
 
Similar team talent and scheme wise to Michigan which spotted the Beavs an early score before thumping them. Hogan was nuts last week, for sure. Think he's made some strides. Not sure how Oregon St scores here...
 
I don't know Hogan's status. Beaver frosh QB a decent work in progress but rough around the edges
 
Inspekdah said:
Similar team talent and scheme wise to Michigan which spotted the Beavs an early score before thumping them. Hogan was nuts last week, for sure. Think he's made some strides. Not sure how Oregon St scores here...
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Going to have to be a lot better on offense than they were against sjsu to find the end zone more than once. Makes me think Stanford TT under is a better way to fade here than taking oregon state if someone is so inclined to fade them. Another worry if you like oregon state ... sjsu had open guys .. the qb was awful and couldn't hit them ... missing BADLY ... but they were able to get open ...

Opener made sense .. I actually had a pr of 17 so i don't think it was really off. I lowered my line to 14.5 because I hated the spot for Stanford more than anything else.

If Hogan plays, and plays like he did last week the rest of the year, the Cardinal are a very tough out.

I had NW last week. I think it was the correct wager all things considered but I also think Duke was the better team for the bulk of that game. They were going to struggle to put up a ton of pts regardless which made the 3.5 or whatever it was pretty valuable though.

Agree with Spek as far as similarities with Meechigan. Spot is really different though.

we are all on the wrong side a lot ... nature of what we are doing here. Just because a public dog or several won last week doesn't mean that what nbafan is doing, doesn't work .. especially if he is doing his own added value analysis to coincide with it.

Seems like he takes a little more abuse than your average guy around here.... and for his support of players over owners, sure he deserves some .. but not for getting a game wrong last week.
 
Mr NBA - Interesting strategy you use. For the past two years I have been doing just the opposite and doing well.
I guess it starts out with definition of 'public dog" , and where one looks for the percents of people on favs.

I use something I find on Blankets, and select only games where the public is 60% or higher on the favorite. So in your above list, the only teams that qualify would be Alabama and Minnesota- which puts me on ULM and Ohio U.

From my Blankets source, the biggest Favs this week are Houston, La Tech, and bama. Which also puts me on TexasSt, and Fla Int, also. There are 8-10 more I believe but I won't list them all . I think you get the drift.

GL
 
clowncar said:
Seems like he takes a little more abuse than your average guy around here.
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a little? :rofl:


Mr NBA - Interesting strategy you use. For the past two years I have been doing just the opposite and doing well.
I guess it starts out with definition of 'public dog" , and where one looks for the percents of people on favs.

I use something I find on Blankets, and select only games where the public is 60% or higher on the favorite. So in your above list, the only teams that qualify would be Alabama and Minnesota- which puts me on ULM and Ohio U.

From my Blankets source, the biggest Favs this week are Houston, La Tech, and bama. Which also puts me on TexasSt, and Fla Int, also. There are 8-10 more I believe but I won't list them all . I think you get the drift.

GL
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Thanks for your comment. I have used sportsinsights for the past 8-9 years or so. I check pregame as well but pregame does not incorporate as many sources into their numebers as SI does. I trust their %'s and its perfectly fine for people not to. That's their prerogative.

I really could not care less what the %s are on blankets/wagerline where teenagers are clicking little circles. Actual wagers matter to me.

Good luck
 
What is the criteria again? Over 55% on an underdog?

By that definition Northwestern was a public dog according to pregame they had 61% last week at Duke. As was BYU 61% at UCLA.

Nobody ever said that underdogs that are getting the lionshare of action is a dead loser, but is there some track record from previous years on this? I think this is the 3rd year for this thread, surely there must be some historic data to weigh on such plays?
 
I haven't kept track nor is there a cutoff I specifically look for. It's just one aspect and it's more so about finding shady lines. It's not something that is a hard science. I don't play against every public dog. Some don't have enough action for books to care and hence I don't care.

Ill definitely be on Michigan and BC tomorrow. As well as Purdue, which opened as the favorite
 
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That offensive holding call in the 4th quarter after the big play by Oregon state sure makes you wonder if the game was fixed lol


BYU/Michigan is BY FAR the heaviest bet game of the day.

12:00 PM EST

Michigan -7 even

Purdue +3.5.... This is not really fading a public dog but I like the fact the line has flipped over 0 and moved 5.5 points. Purdues defense has been awful but BG's isn't so hot either. Blough sounds like he's pumped and is ready to take over at QB. Hopefully the rest of the team steps up their game for him
 
In my ATS pick 6 pool, the most picks by a mile were on BG and Tenn. The split on those two games were 20-3 BG and 17-3 Tenn. Both look like good fades today.
 
Other notable points:

Im not playing any of these but staying away from playing them is sometimes just as important

There is currently 75% action on the UNDER in NIU/BC and no movement on the total. This is the same premise as fading public dogs. Public unders should not exist. It's an oxymoron. The total in BC does seem high when you look at what is expected between these two teams.

There is RLM on the total in the Michigan game in addition to the side.
 
wiseplayer, I'm not sure but I know you can use the spread dot com and goto sport -> public bets to see sports insight percentages.

That site also came from big dog nbafan, and I like it a lot.
 
wiseplayer said:
Nba, good stuff. Where on the sportsinsight is the public betting % shown? Thanks!
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I'm not entirely sure if sportsinsights basic plan is free now. I'm grandfathered in for the $15 a month. I love it for so many reasons. I don't know how I'd live without it. Everything is organized in one place and it's just simple. It's not just about the %s. It definitely can be dangerous because it can lead you to make more wagers than you would if you didn't use it. That's one reason books like it.
 
nbafan88 said:
I'm not entirely sure if sportsinsights basic plan is free now. I'm grandfathered in for the $15 a month. I love it for so many reasons. I don't know how I'd live without it. Everything is organized in one place and it's just simple. It's not just about the %s. It definitely can be dangerous because it can lead you to make more wagers than you would if you didn't use it. That's one reason books like it.
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god has used si for awhile now, always worth tha price. I buy tha premium membership though an it is worth it
 
tru said:
god has used si for awhile now, always worth tha price. I buy tha premium membership though an it is worth it
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Definitely worth every penny. I dont use all the tools and things on their site. 50 cents a day for the platform and live lines is incredible for me. I believe it's 49.99/mo now
 
nbafan88 said:
Definitely worth every penny. I dont use all the tools and things on their site. 50 cents a day for the platform and live lines is incredible for me. I believe it's 49.99/mo now
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nah pretty sure its 200+ a month for tha pro membership
 
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