Week 4 Early Discussions

[RJ Esq]

Games and situations I'm looking at:

Iowa v. Illinois--Iowa getting a sandwich game between ISU and Ohio St.

Louisville v. KSU--Louisville let down spot.

Cincy v. Va Tech--Last game before ACC play starts against GTech.

Michigan v. Wisconsin--UM revenge factor, possible let down after ND.

Michigan St. v. ND--ND revenge spot.

Ohio St v. PSU--Buckeye revenge spot. (Adds to the Cincy play this week).

Colorado v. Georgia--Biggest roadtrip for Colorado and great spot for Georgia.

Utah v. SDSU--Revenge for Utah, largest SDSU crowd of the season (close to sell-out for SkyShow a fireworks show after the game).

Auburn v. Buffalo--Sandwich game for AU between Cocks and LSU.

Florida v. Kentucky--Sandwich game for UF between Tenn and Bama.

LSU v. Tulane--Regional rivalry game, sandwich game between AU and MSU.

Hawaii v. Boise St--Boise fortunate to get Hawaii off the island.

Feel free to add your own games.

 

[B.A.R.]

Thatta boy..getting early work in. I will comment tomorrow morning or later tonight. That Iowa one jumps out at me though.

 

[redbearde]

ND is superior to MSU all over the field. I shudder at this line since MSU is a dog to Pitt....didn't see that coming.

Auburn is going to obliterate barfalo.

Hawaii and Boise ought to score a lot. Someone else mentioned the altitude at Boise last week....it may only be 2800 feet up or so, but Oregon St was done by the 4th quarter after getting off to a good start. Perhaps this game on the mainland hawaii doesn't get the backdoor cover like they did against Bama...

Guesses on tOSU vs PSU line? tOSU -9ish? More?

Boston College @ NCSU - wolfpack will be off yet another demoralizing loss to Southern Miss...a second supposedly winnable game in a row only to come home and get their puppy asses kicked around the field by bigger, stronger, and more talented guys in the trenches. Wolfpack won't be able to run, and if Stone throw the ball 30 times, at least 3 of those will be to the BC defense. Meanwhile, BC will run all over the pack, and the occasional pass will open up the field for 3 or 4 huge plays. BC will win something like 34-12. Maybe worse. If you can get single digit chalk, eat it...it should taste good. I think an appropriate line here would be about BC -14...maybe -17. I hope for much less chalk.

 

[redbearde]

Virginia at Georgia Tech. Reggie ball with a big chance to get an easy win at home. UVA will be lucky to get 200 yards of offense, and GT offense should have a field day. Lord only knows what this spread should be. Or will be. I would be thrilled with GT -17ish.

 

[redbearde]

Wazzou @ Stanford - All anyone has to do is run on Stanford. The tree seems to have zero rush defense...SJSU ran for almost 350, and Oregon had almost 300. Navy should have a shitload, too, this week...250 or 3 bills themselves. Wazzou managed to avg over 4ypc against Auburn for 115. What...3 times that versus Stanford sound about right? Tree shouldn't stop Wazzou all day. If Wazzou can stop Stanford a few times (no reason why not), then Wazzou should win fairly easily. less than a TD would be nice.

 

[RJ Esq]

Wazzou @ Stanford - All anyone has to do is run on Stanford. The tree seems to have zero rush defense...SJSU ran for almost 350, and Oregon had almost 300. Navy should have a shitload, too, this week...250 or 3 bills themselves. Wazzou managed to avg over 4ypc against Auburn for 115. What...3 times that versus Stanford sound about right? Tree shouldn't stop Wazzou all day. If Wazzou can stop Stanford a few times (no reason why not), then Wazzou should win fairly easily. less than a TD would be nice.

Thanks for the info. Navy +3 this week looks even better now.

 

[redbearde]

LSU vs Tulane. arizona anyone? LSU will slaughter em just like Houston did...if not better. Tigers can make their own outcome. if LSU -17 comes up, I'll be on that. More likely it'll be a huge spread...say 28ish. Maybe a dog/under play? Tulane might shrink that spread with a good performance this week against Miss St. We shall see.

btw, I'm terrible at predicting lines...better at reacting to them.

 

[redbearde]

RJ, navy will run all the fuck over Stanford, and stanford won't stop it....they just don't have the personnel. I will make a ML play on this game too, I think...just waiting. I'm thinking that might go up.

 

[redbearde]

I think Georgia may pitch a shutout to Colorado. That should be a funny game. What in the world will that spread be.........?

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think that tOSU line will be a bit higher than that....two scores I'd guess...and I'd hammer that...

This is exact same scenario as Iowa game last year and the Buckeyes got they're revenge...

 

[redbearde]

Yeah, anyone the buckeyes want revenge on...well, this is their year.

 

[B.A.R.]

Michigan vs Wisconsin. Much will be predictaed this week for that play. Michigan will win game but ats is a whole nother story. The UM defense is so much better this year that they may actually cover some spreads in Big Ten this year as favorites.

Michigan St has had Notre Dames number for years. That being said, I believe that ND has won last 2 in East Lansing. I know State has dominated the series in South Bend. I actually hope State loses to Pitt this week. That will leave two scenarios. If ND beats UM SU I will take MSU large in this Saturday Night game. If ND loses to UM outright I will still take MSU, but only as a regular play. Caulcrick and Ringer will run all over Notre Dame. Stanton also will do what he did last year. The MSU defense has been okay so far but they will play a bit better at home on nattie TV against this squad. Enough to cover ats at least.

Ohio St and Psu will be around a 9.5-12 pt spread. Once again, you canno take PSU here. It may look juicy but with a revenge game and a still young QB at helm this is not a good spot.

Have to see how Illy performs this week against Cuse to determine if maybe they are a play against Iowa in the sandwich situation.