Week 4 Card

L

larice

Well-Known Member
Below are the games suggested by the numbers I run. I'll narrow these down a few plays based on some of y'alls plays. Like the rest of y'all, not much on this card is thrilling. Most of these are under the radar games as is usually the case just based on the numbers.

I'll pick up the stuff in your threads, but if you see anything here that you don't like situationally, holler.

*** Updates *** I'm making a few editorial changes. Gonna add a couple and remove a couple. I tweaked my numbers a little bit based on last week's results. I'll explain a little about the 'numbers' in a later post, but remember that my "numbers" are based only on statistics, not a "handicapped" number. Similar to Denfulks' PR #'s, then he modifies them based on info, situations, etc.

Removed: Ohio +20, Marshall +22, Central Michigan -4,
Downgraded (still considered but not strong): Cincy, Tulsa
Added: Hawaii +15

Buffalo +42.5 vs. Auburn: (Probable Bet. I'm a little worried that the numbers can't reflect the defensive battle we saw on Saturday. Kenny Irons is worth more than 21 points by himself, just not against LSU's Def. That was outstanding football and I hate to bet against Auburn. Maybe Tubby will throttle down since he's over the huge LSU hump?)

Rice +28 vs. Florida St.: (Bet. Numbers show this as a close game- too close to be real. Reflecting FSU's poor performance?)

Boston College -7 vs. NC State: (Big bet. I like this one. I'm showing a 38-14 deal. I like this alot).

Clemson -16 vs. North Carolina: (Bet. I haven't seen them play. Showing 49-20 and will probably take this one, but I'm worried that UNC usually stuffs somebody in this spot every year. Thoughts?)

Louisville -13.5 vs. K State: (Big bet. Showing this as 55-20. Why so low?)

Fla. Atlantic+29 vs. South Carolina: (No. Again, showing a LOW scoring game here. Not sure I believe that Fla. Atlantic can hold S.Carol to the points I'm showing. Showing 17-3 but don't endorse it yet.)

Bowling Green -7 vs. Kent St.: (I have no idea. 29-11)

Cincy +26.5 vs. Virginia Tech: (Maybe. 35-17. V-tech usually sticks it to somebody in this spot so I'm listening.) Downgraded.

Tulsa +4.5 vs. Navy: (Waiting on y'all. Number show Tulsa winning outright, but I don't hear anybody saying that. I haven't seen either team play yet.) Downgraded.

Air Force -1 vs. Wyoming: (Bet. Numbers show Air Force between 17 and 30 point favorites.)

UTEP -10 vs. New Mexico: (Bet. UTEP is a huge fav in my system. Did New Mexico show anything last week that should make me stay away here?

Florida Int'l +18.5 vs. Maryland: (No bet. I'm leery here- my numbers show a low scoring game which I don't necessarily endorse. I know that Maryland will put up more points against FIU than the numbers show. Any situations here other than the fact that Maryland needs to beat up on somebody?)

USC -20.5 vs. Arizona: (Bet. USC has to cover that piss-ant spread. I show 57-10 type of stuff. They weren't overly impressive against Nebraska and I don't expect them to play balls to the wall all game against Arizona, but I think they can't accidentally cover that against Az.)

Utah -6.5 vs. SDSU: (Bet. Many people will be on SDSU here. I'm showing 33-13, so I'm going with Utah, against popular opinion.)

Hawaii +15 vs. Boise State: (This one should have been included in the first printing, but I didn't because of the blue turf. The numbers were there. Showing a game in the 30's for both teams. I actually have Hawaii winning on a couple of numbers. Hawaii Guy likes it so it is getting stronger. Not a bet yet though.)


To recap: The games that I really like are few and far between.

BC, Louisville, Air Force, USC, and Utah.
 
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kstate is 5-0 ats as a home dog since '97...i have lou at -9 and i can tell you that is a winner.....kstate is horrendous and lou has a lot to prove this year. back up qb will want to show his talents and the backup rb's are rediculously fast
 
marsahll isn't putting 24 on anyone in the top 50 let alone top 20 @ and SEC stadium...... would steer clear of this game
 
isnt usc's line strange? im playing them as well (for a little lower) but when you consider they were -18 against nebraska!!! wtf?!?!? so arizona is nebraska caliber?!
 
Thanks TroyStacks. Let's hope that Louisville bet cashes. I've never fully wrapped my head around a "trap" bet, hell I don't even know what it is, but it must be a pretty good trap for me b/c when I look at it I'm pretty sure the bookie is on the wrong side of the trap.

KingKrunked. USC and Louisville are tit and tat for me- see comments above.

Thanks Huntdog. I mostly leave the analysis to y'all. I have a 4 yr old and a 1 yr old, so I don't get to watch all of the games. Most of those picks are from the program I use and I just modify them based on y'alls input. I'll delete some and put about coke money on some of the others.
 
larice, the power ratings I like to use just cam out today. I have been having a hell of a time trying to figure out some decent plays on this week's card. I'll have more to comment on after I analyze my power rating info.

I can tell you that I do have two plays this week so far: Louisville -13 and Georgia Tech -16.5.
 
Denny:
My Georgia Tech/Virginia numbers are pretty close: 28-7, 24-10, etc. I like a 5-6 pt difference between my line and the spread. But I like the Georgia Tech side anyway - or maybe I just dislike the Virginia side?
 
I just can't find any bright spots for Virginia, Larice, and I like to play on the home team in the ESPN Thursday night games anyway.
 
PRs showing Missouri to be a -29 favorite and I like that with them playing at home.
 
I just can't buy in to Florida Atlantic. PRs showing USC a 22.5 favorite, but I can't lay money on FAU. They have just been pitiful.
 
My PRs showing Wyoming to be a -11.5 favorite in this match-up. With them currently a 1 point home dog, that may be a play for me.
 
PRs showing UTEP to only be a -4.5 favorite in this match-up. It will be a "no play" for me with UTEP going on the road.
 
Consider it done, my friend.
smoke.gif
 
Good thread larice. I see your numbers spit out a FAU play..and i am glad you are saying no to it for now..

see a lot of talk on FAU this week. This is week 4 in a brutal 4 game road stretch against big conference teams. I understand that SC isn't amn offensive powerhouse but this is a tough spot regardless.
 
Great stuff larice, gonna have to take another look at the BC game. What factors determined your line?
 
Thanks B.A.R. Agree on the tough spot 100%.
Thanks smo1a. Let me know what you find out.

Okay. The first thing I need to say again is that these numbers are based only on statistics. No handicapping involved whatsoever. They are my feeble attempt to determine the strength of a team based on how they did against who they played and how they'll do against who they play this week. That said, it ain't easy. Currently, I actually have 10 different "predicted outcomes" some I like/trust better than others, but each captures a component of the game that I think is important. The best one picked 67% last week. Will it do that again? Doubtful but who knows.

Another problem is Bull's deal: Do you pick all of the picks suggested by the best program or do you make picks within that range? My stance is to identify the top three 'programs' and use them to make picks in the future. From those suggested picks (the ones I posted) I'll solicit other's input, situations, etc. and try to make MY plays. It is still a little early to weigh too heavily on computer ratings anyway.

Probably none of that answered your question. My last excel column was "FC" if that tells you anything. I use RY, PY, PPG, td/int, ypc, SOS, computer ratings, line strength, 3rd %, PE ratings, and the list goes on. I weigh alot of the columns based on a team's propensity to run the ball or pass the ball. So, WVU gets more emphasis placed on their running stats than Arizona St. and vice versa.

One thing is certain... There is much more to predicting these games than just numbers. I'll make a pick not based on my numbers (Texas last week), and I'll refuse to make a pick based on my numbers (Rice last week).
 
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Good deal larice. Thanks for the info. I look at quite a few sources and will certainly take your input into consideration.

:cheers:
 
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