Week 4 Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Record pretty bad, will update it tomorrow. Been working taxes and bs'n

Fading Dallas tonight as I love getting Pax at home as a dog. As far as Reynaldo Lopez gors, he has looked through 2 starts, but it's worth noting his ERA cant hold as his .103 BABIP and 94% LOB% are hilarious and no way sustainable. In 47 innings with the Sox last year, he walked 14 ...he's already walked 7 in 13 inn this year. ChiSox offense has tailed off and Mengden can likely go 6 with a QS.

  • 920 Oakland Athletics -142
  • 922 Seattle Mariners +100
Fades stros: AF and line > -125 and season >= 2014 and p:runs <=1

A's lean off starter momentum HF and -125 >= line >= -150 and season >= 2014 and s:W and os:L
 
Dodgers also look like decent fade vs lefty as road fav of 50 or less off starter win
:popcorn:
abd4046c-5d99-4fda-82d7-ac2a1f6bd41a.png
 
managed 3-1 last night...so just late games again :D

Taking several RL. Wanted to fade Wood again but Pads are so bad, so I just went over since several queries point that way. Had 7-0 angle on Tribe but missed it..shown anyways. Red Sox too damn hot to be getting 160...but I'll take stick since Jap hasn't been seen much yet
  • 963 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -107
  • 977 Houston Astros -1½ -110
  • 975 Boston Red Sox +1½ -145
  • 963 Los Angeles Dodgers/San Diego Padres Over 7½ -110
Here's a solid trend pointing to ChiSox for next 2 games, may play them tomorrow, but cant take Gonzales tonight.

Posting plays late so no one can tail... cheers! ;)
View attachment 32101
 
Dug quite a hole last week, hopefully this is beginning of digging out now.

Catch up record recap...

SAT 1-5 -4.474u
SUN 1-0 +.833u
MON 3-1 +3.91u
TUE 4-0 +3.44u
YTD 69-82-2 -14.596u

Today so far...
  • 920 Toronto Blue Jays -195
  • 901 Colorado Rockies +108
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds +135
 
Mets hot vs Roark, 17 runs in 11 2/3rds innings. Conversely the Nats have only seen Matz once and he allowed zero runs w/ 8 k's in 5 innings. Can’t see the nationals sweeping Mets, especially with this pitching matchup

  • 908 New York Mets -1 +141
  • 908 New York Mets -107
View attachment 32107
 
  • 926 Los Angeles Angels -105
Angels are getting undervalued here due to the Boston bats lately. This lineup of angels has had big time success against Porcello. How Skaggs fairs against the Sox is a mystery since they’ve seen very little of him. If the pitching matchups were reversed I 'm thinkin the line would be -180ish for Sox, so I'm really likin the value here.
 
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WED 4-5 -1.31u
YTD 73-87-2 -14.596u
  • 967 St. Louis Cardinals +105

Cards an amazing 21-12 as away dog less than 125 and starter off quality start over 3 years+ link
View attachment 32109

Short board today, but this shows how cheap the prices are at 5D, Tony has best numbers...bar none!

View attachment 32110
 
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Tigers blow, but they have beat O's 2 straight and O's are terrible road fav...Cobbs' numbers some of worse in league too

  • 960 Detroit Tigers +109

8682de82-9bda-4a49-b86a-45977f245f61.png
 
Brewers aren't big favs often but 8-1 when they are over 3+ years. Peters is terrible and although Marlins have pulled a few surprises, just dont see it here
  • 956 Milwaukee Brewers -175

View attachment 32111
 
Zimm is 13-6 RL (+44.9% ROI) early seaon and 5-0 RL as dog. I mean, dude is pulling 25 million this year, he has to produce at some point, right?
  • 960 Detroit Tigers +1½ -150
starter = Jordan Zimmermann and season >= 2013 and 12 < game number <= 30
SU: 12-7 (2.42, 63.2%) avg line: -117.2 / 107.2 on / against: +$401 / -$481 ROI: +16.8% / -23.1%

RL: 13-6 (1.71, 68.4%) avg line: 116.6 / -130.3 on / against: +$1,004 / -$1,107 ROI: +44.9% / -40.4%

OU: 9-9-1 (1.39, 50.0%) avg total: 7.7 over / under: -$100 / -$50 ROI: -4.7% / -2.4%
 
Gonna roll with under since I see so many poitives for Yanks and Jays. Jays kill it in DIV as dog vs lefties and NY 16-5 as home fav in first game of series in DIV. Sanchez has had success vs NY although hit pretty hard last week. CC has decent day splits and looked vs Jays earlier this year.
  • 963 Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees* Under 9 -105

team = Blue Jays and AD and DIV and season > 2015 and o:STL
SU: 10-4 (1.36, 71.4%) avg line: 135.5 / -146.4 on / against: +$921 / -$1,033 ROI: +65.8% / -50.5%

RL: 12-2 (2.86, 85.7%) avg line: -160.1 / 142.1 on / against: +$856 / -$905 ROI: +37.9% / -64.0%

OU: 2-11-1 (-2.07, 15.4%) avg total: 8.7 over / under: -$1,007 / +$890 ROI: -65.1% / +57.7%
 
Not sure about that, NY is in Kill mode today after that last game and CC is getting old. Waiting for ump seems right
 
cc has been an auto go against for me for a while and i can't say it's been profitable but tonight it may be
 
BJPLAYER said:
cc has been an auto go against for me for a while and i can't say it's been profitable but tonight it may be
Click to expand...

I hear ya, amazing the old guy still hanging but his numbers were actually good last year although yanks only won about 50% with him. He only gave up over 2 runs in 3 of last 10 starts
 
why not...too many reasons to list...sox may go 160-2

  • Boston Red Sox[E. Rodriguez must start.] -vs- LAA Angels[N. Tropeano must start.] 1.909
 
Decent day, profit smaller when betting favs and always risk 1u

THU 7-3 +3.13u
YTD 80-90-2 -11.466u
  • 916 New York Yankees -1½ +105
  • 916 New York Yankees -183
  • 903 New York Mets -135
 
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so far...adding to mets and considered backing out on nyy, but let's ride :cheerleader:
  • 903 New York Mets -137
  • 917 Cleveland Indians -120
  • 920 Detroit Tigers -103
  • 913 Washington Nationals +1½ -185
  • 913 Washington Nationals/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 6 -114
 
CK +$1235 (29-7) ML but -$66 RL (20-16) so I took Max plus stick..will def take sox and RL...may even fade cubs
Pomeranz 22-11 both ML & RL with the RL +$1439 or 33.4% ROI
 
Kyle Hendricks (0-1-2, 17.0 IP): 4.71 SIERA / 4.78 xFIP
Jon Gray (1-3, 21.2 IP): 3.40 SIERA / 3.15 xFIP

Hendricks: 4.00 xFIP in four career starts at Coors Field (1-1-2, 24.2 IP).

Hendricks' ground-ball rate has been at a career-low 42.9% which may hurt tonight, pitching at Coors Field.

Gray one of the unluckiest starters so far, considering his stats, losing three of his four. Faces Cubs for the first time and I'm thinking he may score first win. Arenado should be back too...and that cant hurt.

late plays coming

Note...this SIERA is something new to me, but as I been bumping around fangraphs, it's an unbelievable amount of information....fuck, I remember keeping a spiral to chart pitchers in the 90's haha

anyways...they explain it better than me, but may well be a great tool
View attachment 32120
 
rest of the story
  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers -155
  • 910 Colorado Rockies -108
  • 910 Colorado Rockies -1½ +180
  • 927 Boston Red Sox -128
  • 927 Boston Red Sox -1½ +125
 
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Mixed results, but once again you can see how pain manifests easily when playing favorites. Most of my detriment can be attributed to yanks and rox...wah!

FRI 6-7 -2.31u
YTD 86-97-2 -13.776u

  1. 4/21/2018 2:15 PM Baseball 952 St. Louis Cardinals -1½ -101
  2. 4/21/2018 2:15 PM Baseball 952 St. Louis Cardinals -213
  3. 4/21/2018 9:05 PM Baseball 977 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
  4. 4/21/2018 9:05 PM Baseball 977 Boston Red Sox -155
  5. Toronto Blue Jays [M. Stroman must start.] -vs- New York Yankees [J. Montgomery must start.] Over 8.5 1.719
View attachment 32121View attachment 32122View attachment 32123
 
Gonna roll with yanks too..

  • 966 New York Yankees 1.653
  • 966 New York Yankees -1½ 2.31


5 years with starter off quality start and line < 12.5 from current and APR-MAY...ROI 13.8% and 25.2% on RL

View attachment 32124
 
Twins / Rays Over 7.5

Kyle Gibson (1-0-2, 14.2 IP): 5.24 SIERA / 5.08 xFIP
Blake Snell (2-1-1, 21.1 IP): 3.58 SIERA / 3.76 xFIP

Gibson: 5.66 xFIP 3 starts at the Trop (1-2, 14.0 IP)

Snell: 2.82 xFIP in 2 starts home vs MIN (0-0-2, 9.1 IP)

Total looks low at 7.5 Both pens bottom 10 and Twinks' defense is disappointing. Hoye behind plate with one of the smaller strike zones over the past few years.

SDQL backs it up as only 8 times these starters have been in with a total under 8 and 6 went over

starter in [Blake Snell , Kyle Gibson] and season >= 2015 and H and total < 8
SU: 1-7 (-2.50, 12.5%) avg line: -104.3 / -105.7 on / against: -$722 / +$682 ROI: -77.8% / +71.1%

RL: 2-6 (-2.12, 25.0%) avg line: -100.7 / -115.9 on / against: -$531 / +$497 ROI: -51.8% / +49.5%

OU: 6-2-0 (0.75, 75.0%) avg total: 7.5 over / under: +$390 / -$475 ROI: +45.6% / -52.2%



Haven't pulled the string yet, but this one definitely high on my radar

:haveanidea:
 
well, maybe a couple more

season >= 2015 and tS(W, N=5) >= 4 and starter = Dallas Keuchel
SU: 18-8 (2.58, 69.2%) avg line: -156.9 / 144.5 on / against: +$510 / -$652 ROI: +12.6% / -24.5%

RL: 15-11 (1.42, 57.7%) avg line: 104.2 / -120.3 on / against: +$556 / -$746 ROI: +18.7% / -21.6%

OU: 10-15-1 (0.40, 40.0%) avg total: 7.8 over / under: -$635 / +$453 ROI: -21.8% / +16.1%


  • 973 Houston Astros -208
  • 973 Houston Astros -1½ -130
  • 973 Houston Astros/Chicago White Sox Under 8½ +110
 
Good day was almost excellent, but the BoSox's awesome run was shutdown, for a night anyways. Still probably playing too many favorites, but winning helps

SAT 8-4 +2.27u
YTD 94-101-2 -11.506u

  • 906 Milwaukee Brewers -179
  • 912 Arizona Diamondbacks -145
  • 913 Washington Nationals +166
  • 915 Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 8½ +105
  • 929 San Francisco Giants -101
Funny, but like the best and worse April pitcher face off today and you getting +165 :happydance3:

View attachment 32140
attached find list of very strong April pitchers and a couple angles pointing to NYY over
 
Enjoy the work you put in here. Curious as to what Yu’s numbers are when say the temperate is below 65 degrees? He seems to struggle, like Otani, when it’s cold out but have nothing to support it. Last night was freezing in Colorado and his action fell flat.
 
Inspekdah said:
Enjoy the work you put in here. Curious as to what Yu’s numbers are when say the temperate is below 65 degrees? He seems to struggle, like Otani, when it’s cold out but have nothing to support it. Last night was freezing in Colorado and his action fell flat.
Click to expand...

Small sample but 7-8 ML and 5-10 RL, also 5-10 over with avg 7.9 runs per game so he likely hasn't pitched that bad. - Link
 
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