WEEK 3

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
ONE UNIT
*1.0 unit or more

Bama -20 W
Air Force -3 L
Texas Tech -23' W
Georgia -3 T
A&M +7 W

smaller
* 0.5 - 0.75 or so

Vandy +8' W
Pitt -4' L
Minny -2 L
Duke +3 L
GaSo -2' W
Iowa State / ASU OVER 55 L
Clemson +8' live W
Miami,F -17 W
B Green +6 W
Georgia +7' live W
Navy -4' live W

*0.25 or less
Mizou State +28' W
UAB -11 L
CMU +16 1H L
Ark +3' 1H W
Buffalo ML live W



leans

ARKANSAS w
GA TECH w
BUFFALO l
TROY l
ODU? w
Houston w
Purdue w
S Miss w
N Texas w
 
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added one unit

Bama -20
Air Force -3
Texas Tech -23'

smaller

Pitt -4'
Minny -2
Duke +3



waiting

Aggies at 7
Gators at >10
ODU at 10
S Miss >3
NTX <3'
Miami, F <14'
Georgia to drop?
PURDUE at 24
Mizzou State at 28
Troy at 7
ARK to go up?
Kansas State +3????
Houston to drop

Ga Tech? - forgot .... Clemson is desperate / owns this series - might play live/2H
 
Bama (LV/BO) - very possibly a dumb bet, and no doubt I'm paying a 2-3 pt tax for the privilege (was hoping for 17/18) - but massive for Bama/HC - going into a BYE week, with Georgia the following week. DeBoer values these non-conference matchups more than most (15/19 ats) - Wisky going nowhere fast, and is a terrible road team.

AF - great spot - off a scrimmage, then bye (but Boise next) ..... Utah State off a very physical game at A&M / FCS on deck. Falcons off a bad year, 5/5 OL return - tough on the road, esp. when favored (9/14 ats)

TT - (BM) HATE laying this many..... BUT TT off 2 scrimmages, Beavs? 2 tough games, last being a rough late loss to Fresno - with @ Oregon on deck. A weak road team vs a great home team looking to EXTEND THE MARGIN. Beavs should get killed. Warning TT does have @Utah on deck. I'll play here, fade the next week.



Pitt - (H) maybe should be a larger play .....but the home team usually wins/covers in this series. BUT Pitt is a great road team - and just MUCH better than the Couch Burners at this point. Off CMU, with a BYE on deck - covered 15/19 on the road. WV off an ugly loss to OHIO, with a beating at Kansas on deck

Minny - off FCS/BYE next - a weird spot, but PJ just did this last year, beating a solid (then) UCLA team 21-17 (-4) / bye on deck. I'm a Cal homer, but they're probably overrated - so I think we're getting a good deal here.

Duke (BM) - Tulane is tough - but this is a MUST WIN for Duke (NCST next) - Illini final misleading (5 TO for Duke). Looking for a huge game from Duke QB Mensah (may work the opposite?). Giant killer mentality of Tulane- MAY have them looking to Ole Miss next week.....I'll add to it at 3', but I think it only drops??
 
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Just a tiny spot play, (0.25 units at Heritage)

Mizzou State +28'


Just fading SMU here - off a tough loss (3/9 ats off a SU loss) to Baylor - with TCU on deck ..... now on the road at Mizzou State? (Ponies 5/15 ats non-conference). Mizzou State off a win over Marshall, where they outgained the Herd by 200 yards. Ponies had the worst performance in the nation week 1 (probably), and improved, but gave up over 600 yards to Baylor last week and lost . Where is their focus this week?
>> OVER might be better, as I don't see much of a defensive effort by SMU, but their O will move it for sure (Bears D is .....not good). Bears actually have a good QB - until he gets killed - hopefully later in the season......
 
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same small play

UAB -11

Unfortunately - they played a bit better last week at Navy - they play much better at home, and are fine off a loss (9/15). The key? > Zip O is really bad...
>> Akron hasn't scored, and has gained 364 yards in 2 games / 4-29 on 3rd / QB 25-61 - 200 yds / 112 rushing. I don't see how UAB doesn't just outcore the Zips here.... Nebraska had 775 yds last week. Big game for Dilfer / @ Tennessee next week.
 
bookieassassin said:
Bama (LV/BO) - very possibly a dumb bet, and no doubt I'm paying a 2-3 pt tax for the privilege (was hoping for 17/18) - but massive for Bama/HC - going into a BYE week, with Georgia the following week. DeBoer values these non-conference matchups more than most (15/19 ats) - Wisky going nowhere fast, and is a terrible road team.

AF - great spot - off a scrimmage, then bye (but Boise next) ..... Utah State off a very physical game at A&M / FCS on deck. Falcons off a bad year, 5/5 OL return - tough on the road, esp. when favored (9/14 ats)

TT - (BM) HATE laying this many..... BUT TT off 2 scrimmages, Beavs? 2 tough games, last being a rough late loss to Fresno - with @ Oregon on deck. A weak road team vs a great home team looking to EXTEND THE MARGIN. Beavs should get killed. Warning TT does have @Utah on deck. I'll play here, fade the next week.



Pitt - (H) maybe should be a larger play .....but the home team usually wins/covers in this series. BUT Pitt is a great road team - and just MUCH better than the Couch Burners at this point. Off CMU, with a BYE on deck - covered 15/19 on the road. WV off an ugly loss to OHIO, with a beating at Kansas on deck

Minny - off FCS/BYE next - a weird spot, but PJ just did this last year, beating a solid (then) UCLA team 21-17 (-4) / bye on deck. I'm a Cal homer, but they're probably overrated - so I think we're getting a good deal here.

Duke (BM) - Tulane is tough - but this is a MUST WIN for Duke (NCST next) - Illini final misleading (5 TO for Duke). Looking for a huge game from Duke QB Mensah (may work the opposite?). Giant killer mentality of Tulane- MAY have them looking to Ole Miss next week.....I'll add to it at 3', but I think it only drops??
Click to expand...
Zero chance Tulane is overlooking this game BA.
Good Luck this week, I’ll be rocking with some of your plays 🫡
 
Having a giant looming always matters (some) ......
>> it's all about PRACTICE / preparation - not being fired up on game day

Duke is a must win - if you're thinking play-offs. But an Ole Miss W? = MONEY / raises - recruiting - NIL/audition for LK. Every Wave player wants/wanted to play for Ole Miss ..... Duke?

BTW - Ole Miss will be off Arkansas, with LSU on deck - that is a winnable game. Coaches know better, but the players don't. SHOULD they overlook Tulane? Hell no - but it's human nature, which always kicks our ass...

Does it change the handicap? probably not, just something to consider. A 98% focused Tulane might still kick the shit outta Dook.
 
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Ole Miss vs Tulane /week 4 - interesting game

Checking out LK in this same type spot -

2024 vs GASO (-35) / Kentucky next - won 52-13
2023 vs Ga Tech (-17) / Bama next - won 48-23
2022 vs Tulsa (-21) / Kentucky next - won 35-27 (note Tulsa was tough as a dog then)
2021 vs Tulane (-14) / Bama next - won 61-21
* he's about 75% ats in NC games

Hopefully Tulane will kill Duke (maybe) - Ole Miss will struggle with Arkansas (probably) - bringing this one closer to 14 - right now Ole Miss -19 or so.
* BUT - note to self, stop fading Sumrall (Willie Fritz homer)
 
adding juiced - at BM, or LV when available

GEORGIA -3

* too expensive now (-127/8) - but will add when it drops a bit ...it should come close / I'll play at -115 or so - it may hit 3 BRIEFLY....

Why is it dropping? Vols have looked sharp in 2 scrimmages - Dawgs? - not so much. Here's the thing - it ALWAYS looks like this for these 2 coaches. Nobody cares less about non-conference games than Kirby (4/15 NC - 0/9 FCS) - few care more than Heupel (16/20 ats NC - 9-2 FCS)

Which team enters 2025 on a 'mission'? - GEORGIA.
>> Vols overachieved LY and should see some regression IMO (historically great D). Dawgs have been working on this one since day 1 fall camp. They have a BYE next, then Bama.

Georgia / Kirby absolutely OWNS Tennessee .....8-0 su / 7-1 ats. MOV - 14, 28, 14, 24, 23, 29, 26, 41 pts

Note Vols are 'great at home' - but those numbers are skewed because of NC success....as a home dog they've covered 1/6, and 8/20 - 12/30 overall in SEC home games. Georgia is awesome usually on the road, but have slipped as of late.


$$ IF it doesn't drop to < -120 ..... I'll probably play smaller at 3' / adjust above. I need to get better at line movement prediction - and what service / newsletter moves lines / WHEN their picks are released .....Often lines will move towards SP+ numbers (Bill Connelly) - he has Tenn FAVORED by 1'/2 - so 3 might pop up late today or tommorrow I'm thinking.....
eg. like if I knew RAS likes the Vols this year, I should probably wait until they release - or Dr Bob / whomever.... is he still around ha
 
Georgia has already dropped almost 10 cents since I started above post - waiting for 3, maybe 2' .....?

* adding (regretting it already)

Texas A&M +7

>>> slightly juiced at Heritage - locking this in at -114 smaller, then waiting for 7' decently priced

I think the Aggies can stay close, or win outright ...... BUT they are terrible on the road (3-12 su/ats). IRISH? better lately at home, but usually better on the road.
AND (Steele) - in their last 38 games in which the spread was less than 10, Irish have covered THIRTY. Note Steele is a mistake machine this year - didn't fact-check this (lazy)
 
bookieassassin said:
Georgia has already dropped almost 10 cents since I started above post - waiting for 3, maybe 2' .....?

* adding (regretting it already)

Texas A&M +7

>>> slightly juiced at Heritage - locking this in at -114 smaller, then waiting for 7' decently priced

I think the Aggies can stay close, or win outright ...... BUT they are terrible on the road (3-12 su/ats). IRISH? better lately at home, but usually better on the road.
AND (Steele) - in their last 38 games in which the spread was less than 10, Irish have covered THIRTY. Note Steele is a mistake machine this year - didn't fact-check this (lazy)
Click to expand...
Kinda like the under in this game better than a side. Should see lots of running the ball.....and both defenses are better than the offenses (in theory)....
 
bookieassassin said:
adding juiced - at BM, or LV when available

GEORGIA -3

* too expensive now (-127/8) - but will add when it drops a bit ...it should come close / I'll play at -115 or so - it may hit 3 BRIEFLY....

Why is it dropping? Vols have looked sharp in 2 scrimmages - Dawgs? - not so much. Here's the thing - it ALWAYS looks like this for these 2 coaches. Nobody cares less about non-conference games than Kirby (4/15 NC - 0/9 FCS) - few care more than Heupel (16/20 ats NC - 9-2 FCS)

Which team enters 2025 on a 'mission'? - GEORGIA.
>> Vols overachieved LY and should see some regression IMO (historically great D). Dawgs have been working on this one since day 1 fall camp. They have a BYE next, then Bama.

Georgia / Kirby absolutely OWNS Tennessee .....8-0 su / 7-1 ats. MOV - 14, 28, 14, 24, 23, 29, 26, 41 pts

Note Vols are 'great at home' - but those numbers are skewed because of NC success....as a home dog they've covered 1/6, and 8/20 - 12/30 overall in SEC home games. Georgia is awesome usually on the road, but have slipped as of late.


$$ IF it doesn't drop to < -120 ..... I'll probably play smaller at 3' / adjust above. I need to get better at line movement prediction - and what service / newsletter moves lines / WHEN their picks are released .....Often lines will move towards SP+ numbers (Bill Connelly) - he has Tenn FAVORED by 1'/2 - so 3 might pop up late today or tommorrow I'm thinking.....
eg. like if I knew RAS likes the Vols this year, I should probably wait until they release - or Dr Bob / whomever.... is he still around ha
Click to expand...
Spot on about UGA, Kirby owns the Vols and comparing performances from weeks 1 and 2 means little when Heupel is going for style points and Kirby is doing the opposite.
 
Grabbed Bama Sunday morning at -19.5. Wisky looks horrible to me, as bad or worse than last yr.
On Duke too, they're tough and a must win.
Grabbed a little Purdue at +21. Trojans didn't travel well last yr, hope it continues.
Thanks for posting BA!!
 
bookieassassin said:
Georgia has already dropped almost 10 cents since I started above post - waiting for 3, maybe 2' .....?

* adding (regretting it already)

Texas A&M +7

>>> slightly juiced at Heritage - locking this in at -114 smaller, then waiting for 7' decently priced

I think the Aggies can stay close, or win outright ...... BUT they are terrible on the road (3-12 su/ats). IRISH? better lately at home, but usually better on the road.
AND (Steele) - in their last 38 games in which the spread was less than 10, Irish have covered THIRTY. Note Steele is a mistake machine this year - didn't fact-check this (lazy)
Click to expand...
I think good old A&M might buck that trend and compete on the road here. They could get wiped out in the 4th. Notre dame was disorganized for a Freeman lead team.
 
BOL BA - Any thoughts on Ark/Miss over? It appears to me that both these secondaries are vulnerable and with LK and Petrino would expect a lot of explosive plays.
 
Timh said:
BOL BA - Any thoughts on Ark/Miss over? It appears to me that both these secondaries are vulnerable and with LK and Petrino would expect a lot of explosive plays.
Click to expand...

Damn sure looks like it don't it? ......a 45-40 / 38-35 type game
>> then why 'only' 61' ?

Not enough info on Arkansas, off 2 scrimmages ..... nor Ole Miss, who lost a ton of talent - Rebel D has given up too much on the ground (191 / 5.5) to GaSt - and (172 / 4.6) to Kentucky. Their OL has been completely rebuilt, and over 10% of runs so far have been stuffed...

Hog D is bad , but checking their progress under 3Y DC Travis Williams - they get a little bit better every year (Steele p. 77). SO - they should be better again this year - and should compete well here - for awhile at least. Their OL should be much improved - so I think they move the ball here.
>> OVER might be worth a look on Ole Miss every week.....LY their D led the nation in sacks/TFL/ yards/ rush D. This edition might take a big step back......

Total wise - just lean over for me .....OR play it live (?) for a better number. I love the Hogs here, but passed on an early 10', thinking it might go up / looking for 12 (dumb). Looking at Hog TT over 26' - tho the 7 / 7' should be fine - they play well 1H on the road too.

BOL !!
 
bookieassassin said:
Damn sure looks like it don't it? ......a 45-40 / 38-35 type game
>> then why 'only' 61' ?

Not enough info on Arkansas, off 2 scrimmages ..... nor Ole Miss, who lost a ton of talent - Rebel D has given up too much on the ground (191 / 5.5) to GaSt - and (172 / 4.6) to Kentucky. Their OL has been completely rebuilt, and over 10% of runs so far have been stuffed...

Hog D is bad , but checking their progress under 3Y DC Travis Williams - they get a little bit better every year (Steele p. 77). SO - they should be better again this year - and should compete well here - for awhile at least. Their OL should be much improved - so I think they move the ball here.
>> OVER might be worth a look on Ole Miss every week.....LY their D led the nation in sacks/TFL/ yards/ rush D. This edition might take a big step back......

Total wise - just lean over for me .....OR play it live (?) for a better number. I love the Hogs here, but passed on an early 10', thinking it might go up / looking for 12 (dumb). Looking at Hog TT over 26' - tho the 7 / 7' should be fine - they play well 1H on the road too.

BOL !!
Click to expand...
Simmons banged up for Ole Miss (probably a chunk of the reason line has dropped and total hasn't risen).....I think this total is a bit of Vegas nod that the under is in play.....one of the games that should be 41-34......but ends up 27-21
 
weekday games don't see much....

Live/2H plays

OVER in WF/NCSU
Houston live / under live or 1H
KSU live? / KSU alternate line?
UCLA live?? < they can't lose this one


THURS 9/11

NC STATE -7
7:30 p.m. ESPN
WAKE FOREST
> NCSU - Virg/Duke ... WF- FCS/BYE
*HOME team has won and covered 14/18 / WF is on 3-0 su/ats run
$ NEITHER can be trusted here - slight lean WF - strong lean OVER


FRIDAY 9/12

COLORADO
7:30 p.m. ESPN
HOUSTON -3
> CU - FCS/Wyo ... UH - @Rice/BYE
* Cougs are getting too much early love (what have they done ffs)- Deion has quietly (kinda sorta) covered 14/19- Buff D is underrated and could cause problems. Willie F has covered 26/40 laying <10
$ slight lean Houston - strong lean UNDER

KANSAS STATE -1'
9:00 p.m. FOX
ARIZONA
> KSU - ARMY/BYE ... A - FCS/BYE
* A NON-CONF GAME - KSU can get killed here and still win the B12
$ stay TF away - nobody knows what's gonna happen here - Cats could regroup here, or AFTER the bye at home - play an alternate line maybe, if you like KSU

NEW MEXICO
10:00 p.m. B10
UCLA -17
> NMSU - FCS/BYE ... U - @UNLV/BYE
$ stay far away - maybe Bruins live if they get down early
 
bookieassassin said:
weekday games don't see much....

Live/2H plays

OVER in WF/NCSU
Houston live / under live or 1H
KSU live? / KSU alternate line?
UCLA live?? < they can't lose this one


THURS 9/11

NC STATE -7
7:30 p.m. ESPN
WAKE FOREST
> NCSU - Virg/Duke ... WF- FCS/BYE
*HOME team has won and covered 14/18 / WF is on 3-0 su/ats run
$ NEITHER can be trusted here - slight lean WF - strong lean OVER


FRIDAY 9/12

COLORADO
7:30 p.m. ESPN
HOUSTON -3
> CU - FCS/Wyo ... UH - @Rice/BYE
* Cougs are getting too much early love (what have they done ffs)- Deion has quietly (kinda sorta) covered 14/19- Buff D is underrated and could cause problems. Willie F has covered 26/40 laying <10
$ slight lean Houston - strong lean UNDER

KANSAS STATE -1'
9:00 p.m. FOX
ARIZONA
> KSU - ARMY/BYE ... A - FCS/BYE
* A NON-CONF GAME - KSU can get killed here and still win the B12
$ stay TF away - nobody knows what's gonna happen here - Cats could regroup here, or AFTER the bye at home - play an alternate line maybe, if you like KSU

NEW MEXICO
10:00 p.m. B10
UCLA -17
> NMSU - FCS/BYE ... U - @UNLV/BYE
$ stay far away - maybe Bruins live if they get down early
Click to expand...
This helped , I just tossed some loose change on KState ML +756 and caught UCLA -5.5 (-121)

See if I can get a free pizza mahalos
 
added smaller/small

CMU +16 1H
GaSo -2'
Ark +3' 1H
Iowa State / ASU OVER 55


CMU - think they hang for awhile - should be able to ugly things up, until Michigan takes over. Chips off 2 straight road games (SJSU > PITT)

GASO (-115 at LV) - a reach no doubt but hear me out ha....
>> Eagles (weak road/tough at home - 8/11 HF) off 2 terrible games at Fresno and USC - they led Fresno at the half, had a rain delay, and haven't been seen since. They should be the #2 team in the Belt, and if this one was played week 1- GASO would have been favored by 9'/10. JSU played well at UCF, and beat Liberty, helped by turnovers (outgained 534-390). They run the ball well, (GASO run D stinks) - but pass D is terrible (GASO strength). Panthers should get back on track here before a great home crowd (nite game). I'll probably play an alternate line as well.

Ark - strong starters on the road - I'll add to this play for sure (very small play here)- LOVE the Hogs in this spot - waiting for a solid 7/7' maybe. If line doesn't go up, I'll add to it live/2H/ML. Late Ole Miss $$ wouldn't surprise me.

ISU/ASU OVER - ASU has talent on O (QB/W) - and in this spot (off Iowa) a focused defensive effort in Jonesboro, Ark would be a surprise. Meanwhile, Cyclones can score as much as they want vs a horrific D (zero starters return). Plus it's gonna be hot - cloudy - light winds.



* Will probably add....

Miami at 17/16' - fading USF here - off wins over Boise and Fla
Fla at 7'+ - thinking we see drunk, crazy Cajun money late - maybe pushing this one to >8
Hogs at 7/ML
B Green - if it hits 6'/7 - fading sorry Liberty, a terrible road team in survival mode - with JMU on deck - BG next HG 10/11, @ Louisville / @ Ohio next - this one is HOMECOMING



* Will (look to) play live/2H

CLEMSON - if GT is up early
BUFFALO - if slow start
Ala/Wisky over - if Wisky is moving the ball
TROY
OSU/TT OVER - if Beavs can block / protect < doubtful
UTSA - off slow start - 11/17 off loss
USC off slow start - no shocker if it takes them awhile (tho later 3:30p kick)
N TEXAS - and/or over
GEORGIA - I've got enough invested already, so I might pass - but if they get behind, IMO this is a strong ML play live/2H


BOL boys ......... 👊

 
bookieassassin said:
ASSuming the joke was both are Cats - I thought KSU would win too if that's what you meant ha
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Oh I had no clue about either side but in response to his let's go Cats, when it's said around where I live it's generally Arizona and basketball season. Cats winning was a lock.
 
“Fla at 7'+ - thinking we see drunk, crazy Cajun money late - maybe pushing this one to >8”

wise angle brother! I’ll hold out for the hook…lmao 🤘🏼
 
Navy -4'

Live at MB


Navy gifted Tulsa 2 TD early - 3 STRAIGHT TO ffs....off a disappointing game ($$) LW - they should take over 2H vs underrated Tulsa
 
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