WEEK 3

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Kansas State -7 W
E Caro +3 W
C Michigan +19 L
Virginia +3 / ML L

smaller

Michigan / Ark St over 45 W
Kansas -6' L
Fresno -20 W
SDSU +18 L
Hawaii +5 W
N Dame -7 W
UCF P 2H W

small

UAB/Ark over 59 W
ODU +14' L
FAU ML / FSU ML L
ASU / TSU 1H under 30 L
NW State +38 L
Auburn TT over 43' W
Morgan State +25 W
NCST ML live W


leans

Kentucky >24
Jax St -
Cinn
UMass
WVirg
UCLA?
UCF
Col State
Fla
Okie State


$$ reminder - one of the highest % plays in CFB wagering (over the years) ...... is to fade a team favored on the road - after losing at home the previous week - so if you find yourself betting a team that fits this spot, better reconsider.



*ASU/UM juiced a bit - Michigan needs to get the O going in a huge way - with USC on deck. I wouldn't expect a focused effort by their D here (off nasty loss > USC). ASU is all O / no D.

Probably will wait until later in the week to add anything - BOL this week boys
 
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added one unit

Kansas State -7

$ should / will be closer to 8-9' - Zona (one year) tough D is likely gone - couldn't stop New Mexico. New staff on the road in a new conference vs B12 MONSTERS at home / weekday game?


edit: technically a non-conf game standings wise - could be wrong - but I don't see how KSU coaches and players approach this any different - play-offs are their goal no doubt
 
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small at Heritage

ODU +14'

ODU is tough - plays the Hokies tough - off su L with bye on deck - Hokies roll - I'll use the value and bet Rutgers big next week .......
 
In a game they (and me) thought they might could win - App St got slaughtered at Clemson - now they are FAVORED on the road - with a conference game with SA on deck. The last SEVEN games when on the road as a favorite - they have won SU ONCE (0-7 ats). Last 15 games as a RF - covered 3. E Carolina is a team I've slotted to play on - typically better on the road - but they can win this one outright.

Adding one unit - will buy up / wait for a better deal

E Carolina +3/ML
 
bookieassassin said:
In a game they (and me) thought they might could win - App St got slaughtered at Clemson - now they are FAVORED on the road - with a conference game with SA on deck. The last SEVEN games when on the road as a favorite - they have won SU ONCE (0-7 ats). Last 15 games as a RF - covered 3. E Carolina is a team I've slotted to play on - typically better on the road - but they can win this one outright.

Adding one unit - will buy up / wait for a better deal

E Carolina +3/ML
Click to expand...
Ah so we meet opposed again!

I agree ECU is a play on team this year. And that App St ATS mark scares me and the slot is bad for them too! but you know what doesn’t scare me? A 4/7 TD/INt ratio by Garcia. And he threw 4 picks last week! Dunno the a$$ kicking by a mad Clemson team doesn’t change the fact App state is one of the few G5 teams that can run the table from here on out. Figured this line would be 6-7.

We shall see!
 
satnightfever05 said:
Ah so we meet opposed again!

I agree ECU is a play on team this year. And that App St ATS mark scares me and the slot is bad for them too! but you know what doesn’t scare me? A 4/7 TD/INt ratio by Garcia. And he threw 4 picks last week! Dunno the a$$ kicking by a mad Clemson team doesn’t change the fact App state is one of the few G5 teams that can run the table from here on out. Figured this line would be 6-7.

We shall see!
Click to expand...
Vs the least aggressive secondary in America + zero sacks - (so far) it won't matter!! ha

Probably too aggressive here - App State is dangerous - but you're paying a premium for that privilege - this is a week 2 line unadjusted. Raw numbers say line should be closer to P - SP+ says EC -3'. Most agree with you so far - I would expect late money on ECU so wait if you like ASU.

Just a Big Picture play for me - ECU going up - ASU going nowhere really - they run the ball (identity) worse every year - D is worse every year under HC in most every category - why? ECU is tough vs the run and has huge ST advantage ( #2 vs #67) - as well as a nice edge on D (#45 vs #117). ASU with a potentially large QB edge - so far....new O for ECU so early issues expected.
 
added at BO

C Michigan +19

* holding a bit back - to see if it goes up? - will add more at >17' if it drops - misleading finals from LW, give us about 4-5 points of value here
>> Illini a horrible team to extend the margin on anybody - in Kansas / Nebraska sammich - CM usually very tough in this spot - should stay close
 
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adding cheesy ML parlay (+ money)

FAU ML / Fla St ML

* Tom Herman NEEDS this one bad - FIU off a huge upset / misleading score - FAU has won and covered the last 5
* FSU off loss / bye - Memphis rarely competes in this spot - 3-27 SU as a road dog - last SU win if a 3+ dog like 15 years ago.
 
BA—what’s your thoughts on tonight’s matchup with Tex St and AZ st? Looks like an even fight, number and PR wise, but anything stand out to you? As always l, value your input. Good luck this weekend! 💪🏈
 
2dawgnation2 said:
BA—what’s your thoughts on tonight’s matchup with Tex St and AZ st? Looks like an even fight, number and PR wise, but anything stand out to you? As always l, value your input. Good luck this weekend! 💪🏈
Click to expand...

Do you join the MOB and get that dopamine release (bet TSU)? - or make the 'smart' play / take the (perceived) value with ASU, but feel slightly anxious? And especially regret if ASU get's their ass kicked ......... :cool:
>> kinda same thing with Indy/UCLA

Ha - for me a live/2H play only. We don't know how good that ASU D is really - their O looks one dimensional, and might be in trouble here if they can't run. TSU was way too up/down last year to get a great read on them here (lost to Ark State by almost 50). I might make a 1H play, and play off of that.........
 
SMALL play

ASU / TSU 1H UNDER 30

* I think Zona State can ugly this one up for awhile - they play really slow, and should be able to run here (ran for 350 and held ball for 40 minutes vs Miss State). I'll look for a live or 2H over - as TSU D might wear down / Bobcats O tough to stop for 4 Q.
 
extra small sensible dart ......

NW State +38

Demons are terrible/tired, but scrappy - already have several ST TD's and explosive runs - weather might be an issue- SA with App State on deck
>> will wait and see if line goes up closer to KO -
 
adding

Hawaii +5
Auburn TT over 43'

$ both juiced at BM


Off loss / HC game for Auburn - Lobos off bye / terrible D - the 28 probably works but I can see Auburn falling asleep 2H - a great shot to get that lame O going before game with Hogs next week
>> Hawaii off bye - SH in a very uncomfortable role as favorite, off polar opposite and very physical game at UCF - Rainbow Warriors arguably the better team
 
more of a hunch, so should make this a smaller play - but I'm fading the sorry Terps / Locksley - weak road team / weak off a loss. In a weird spot - off loss / favored on the road / Nova on deck.

Virginia a great dog and will play their ass off here

Virginia +3 / ML

Juiced a bit at Heritage
 
bookieassassin said:
adding cheesy ML parlay (+ money)

FAU ML / Fla St ML

* Tom Herman NEEDS this one bad - FIU off a huge upset / misleading score - FAU has won and covered the last 5
* FSU off loss / bye - Memphis rarely competes in this spot - 3-27 SU as a road dog - last SU win if a 3+ dog like 15 years ago.
Click to expand...
Was really thinking about FAU for the reasons you mentioned, but I just can't trust Cam Fancher with my money. You're probably right though.
 
adding smaller at Heritage (-112)

IRISH -7

Against G5 teams - Irish are vulnerable typically ..... but vs P5 teams? tough as hell usually (22-7-1 ats run), especially on the road / Boilers weaker at home. Won't be easy - but a bad line IMO - before week 2, raw numbers would be 16'/17 - TEN POINT DROP?
 
bookieassassin said:
more of a hunch, so should make this a smaller play - but I'm fading the sorry Terps / Locksley - weak road team / weak off a loss. In a weird spot - off loss / favored on the road / Nova on deck.

Virginia a great dog and will play their ass off here

Virginia +3 / ML

Juiced a bit at Heritage
Click to expand...
Agreed brother….love UVA. GL
 
teams I kinda like that I'll look to play live/2H - missed line I wanted mostly

JAX ST
Fla St
UCLA (1H?)
Cinn
UCF
Col St
KENTUCKY (1H ?)
FLA
Okie St
WV

forgot about FCS stuff (shoulda focused on these instead (dumb)

adding small

Morgan State +25

Ohio (Kentucky on deck) - typically could care less about these games - missed covering last 3 by 60 points

BOL today boys
 
bookieassassin said:
teams I kinda like that I'll look to play live/2H - missed line I wanted mostly

JAX ST
Fla St
UCLA (1H?)
Cinn
UCF
Col St
KENTUCKY (1H ?)
FLA
Okie St
WV

forgot about FCS stuff (shoulda focused on these instead (dumb)

adding small

Morgan State +25

Ohio (Kentucky on deck) - typically could care less about these games - missed covering last 3 by 60 points

BOL today boys
Click to expand...
Have a day my man!
 
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