Week 3

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
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WEEK 1 [11-7 +7.79U]
WEEK 2 [9-10 +0.52u]
SEASON [20-17 +8.31u]

LAST [1-2 -1.12u]
✅4/3.88 BILLS (BUF) -10-103
❌2/1.90 BILLS u47½ -105
❌3/3.15 Vikings +2½ +105

Managed to keep my head above water for a 2nd straight week thanks to the miracle by the midget in zona, but it just as frequently goes the other way so I'll gladly take it.

THURSDAY:
  • 3/2.86 STEELERS +4½ -105
  • 1.13/2 STEELERS +177
  • 2/1.90 STEELERS u38½ -105


If the Brownies can allow Flacco 4TDs and a last-minute comeback last Sunday, maybe Trubisky can work them over as well...or maybe the Steelers are ready to try Kenny Pickett and Mitch has looked like the old Chicago loser Trubisky so far. Tomlin's D is keeping them in games lately. The new Steelers D seems made to contain CLE and their running game, having beaten them twice last year while only allowing CLE 22 total points. PIT is 11-5 ATS as a DOG in L16. I really like the plus number here and may even hit the ML lightly,

CLE 2-11 ATS IN DIV L3 SEASONS
CLE 2-9 ATS AS HOME CHALK 2020-22
LAST 7 YEARS IN AFC NORTH GAMES WITH A TOTAL < 43, THE UNDER CASHED 61.7% AND HOME TEAM ONLY COVERED 37.3%
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Don't miss the bus...;)
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For grins, even though mostly these bleed into last season...I've always been a big proponent of 7 games, 7 weeks, 7 seasons, etc... for a decent and meaningful sample size...so I present:

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Sorted by ATS wins but hot/cold color coded as well
 
WEEK 1 [11-7 +7.79U]
WEEK 2 [9-10 +0.52u]
WEEK 3 [0-3 -6.13u]
SEASON [20-20 +2.18u]

LAST [0-3 -6.13u]
❌3/2.86 STEELERS +4½ -105
❌1.13/2 STEELERS +177
❌2/1.90 STEELERS u38½ -105

Steelers looked good for a while...until they didn't, should've played 1H

SUNDAY
  • 4/3.85 PATRIOTS +2½ -104
  • 2/1.90 Dolphins +4½ -105
  • 2/1.94 SAINTS -2½ -103
  • 2/1.85 Chiefs -5 -108
  • 2/1.90 Colts o50½ -105
  • 2/1.90 RAIDERS o45½ -105
  • 2/1.92 COMMANDERS u47½ -104
  • 3/2.65 TEXANS +3 -113
  • 2/1.92 BEARS u39 -104
  • 3/2.73 Jaguars +3½ -110
  • 3/2.86 BUCCANEERS -1 -105
  • 2/1.90 Falcons +1 -105
  • 3/2.86 Cardinals +3½ -105
  • 3/2.86 Broncos +1½ -105
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WEEK 1 [11-7 +7.79U]
WEEK 2 [9-10 +0.52u]
WEEK 3 [6-10-1 -10.92u]
SEASON [26-27-1 -2.61u]

No surprise, the NFL is fukn tough. I had a fair day but NE turnovers and KC misfortunes/bad calls sunk my chances for a plus day.

LAST [6-7-1 -4.79u]
❌4/3.85 PATRIOTS +2½ -104
✅2/1.90 Dolphins +4½ -105
❌2/1.94 SAINTS -2½ -103
❌2/1.85 Chiefs -5 -108
❌2/1.90 Colts o50½ -105
✅2/1.90 RAIDERS o45½ -105
✅2/1.92 COMMANDERS u47½ -104
⛅3/2.65 TEXANS +3 -113
❌2/1.92 BEARS u39 -104
✅3/2.73 Jaguars +3½ -110
❌3/2.86 BUCCANEERS -1 -105
✅2/1.90 Falcons +1 -105
❌3/2.86 Cardinals +3½ -105
✅3/2.86 Broncos +1½ -105
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MONDAY
  • 4/3.85 COWBOYS +1 -104
  • 2/1.90 Giants u9½ -105

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LB Micah Parsons may be listed as questionable but he's "good to go" per Cowboys' officials, and that will be huge. DAL should also be better with the expected return of WR Michael Gallup. Cooper Rush's 93.6 passer rating in 2 career starts, both wins, maybe a small sample, but if the boys continue getting solid line play...especially with rookie Tyler Smith at left tackle, I could see some more good weeks in Rush's immediate future. NY standout defensive anchor Leonard Williams is doubtful with a knee injury after making 112 straight starts and will be sorely missed. Meanwhile, the gints o-line looks like a big issue, most notably facing the ferocious front DAL presents. Defense most likely dominates this game on both sides, but I'll back Rush over "Dimes"

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