WEEK 3

[bookieassassin]

Same as last week - not guessing lines, what the line 'should be' - ignoring wagering



THURS 9/15

103 LA CHARGERS
8:15 p.m.
104 KANSAS CITY -6


FRI 9/16

105 FLORIDA ST
7:00 p.m.
106 LOUISVILLE P

107 AIR FORCE -20'
8:00 p.m.
108 WYOMING


SAT 9/17

109 CINCINNATI -17
12:00 p.m. Cincinnati
110 MIAMI, OH

111 CONNECTICUT
12:00 p.m.
112 MICHIGAN -45

113 PURDUE -1'
12:00 p.m.
114 SYRACUSE

115 RUTGERS -20'
12:00 p.m.
116 TEMPLE

117 TEXAS ST
12:00 p.m.
118 BAYLOR -27'

119 WKU
12:00 p.m.
120 INDIANA -2

121 GEORGIA -23'
12:00 p.m.
122 SOUTH CAROLINA

123 OKLAHOMA -`10??
12:00 p.m.
124 NEBRASKA

125 BUFFALO
1:00 p.m.
126 COASTAL CAROLINA -14

127 OHIO
2:00 p.m.
128 IOWA ST -23

129 UTEP -1'
2:00 p.m.
130 NEW MEXICO

131 OLD DOMINION
2:00 p.m.
132 VIRGINIA -9

133 SOUTH ALABAMA
2:00 p.m.
134 UCLA -15

135 CALIFORNIA
2:30 p.m.
136 NOTRE DAME -16

137 NORTH TEXAS
3:00 p.m.
138 UNLV -1'

139 TULANE
3:00 p.m.
140 KANSAS ST -13'

141 NEW MEXICO ST
3:30 p.m.
142 WISCONSIN -34

143 PENN ST -2
3:30 p.m.
144 AUBURN

145 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
146 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1'

147 COLORADO
3:30 p.m.
148 MINNESOTA -28

149 MISSISSIPPI -15
3:30 p.m.
150 GEORGIA TECH

151 BYU
3:30 p.m.
152 OREGON -2

153 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
3:30 p.m.
154 UAB -12'

155 TROY
3:30 p.m.
156 APPALACHIAN ST -12'

157 KANSAS
4:00 p.m.
158 HOUSTON -12

159 ULM
4:00 p.m.
160 ALABAMA -55

161 COLORADO ST
5:00 p.m.
162 WASHINGTON ST -17

163 LIBERTY
5:00 p.m.
164 WAKE FOREST -16?

165 MARSHALL -13'
5:00 p.m.
166 BOWLING GREEN

167 MISSISSIPPI ST
6:00 p.m.
168 LSU -2'

169 TOLEDO
7:00 p.m.
170 OHIO ST -28

171 AKRON
7:00 p.m.
172 TENNESSEE -42

173 CHARLOTTE
7:00 p.m.
174 GEORGIA ST -17

175 TEXAS TECH
7:00 p.m.
176 NC STATE -8'

177 ARKANSAS ST
7:00 p.m.
178 MEMPHIS -17

179 UCF -14
7:30 p.m.
180 FAU

181 USF
7:30 p.m.
182 FLORIDA -25

183 SMU
7:30 p.m.
184 MARYLAND -3

185 MICHIGAN ST -3
7:30 p.m.
186 WASHINGTON

187 PITTSBURGH -18'
7:30 p.m.
188 WESTERN MICHIGAN

189 NEVADA
7:30 p.m.
190 IOWA -20'

191 LOUISIANA -12'
7:30 p.m.
192 RICE

193 UTSA
8:00 p.m.
194 TEXAS -18'

195 LOUISIANA TECH
8:00 p.m.
196 CLEMSON -34

197 MIAMI, FL
9:00 p.m.
198 TEXAS A&M -6' ??

199 SAN DIEGO ST
10:00 p.m.
200 UTAH -21

201 FRESNO ST
10:30 p.m.
202 USC -12'

203 EASTERN MICHIGAN
11:00 p.m.
204 ARIZONA ST -20'



LEANS


UAB
B Green
CAL
Vandy
Troy
Fresno / over
La Tech
Rice
Kansas
Bama 1H
Toledo
Tenn
Memphis
S Ala
Purdue

Pitt
SMU
NCSt
Penn St


Will add some notes later today - BOL this week boys ......:shake:

 

[bookieassassin]

with notes - sorry didn't think I could get to it till tonite
HC - homecoming
OL- off loss
ORL - off road loss / off home loss, etc


FRI 9/16

105 FLORIDA ST
7:00 p.m.
106 LOUISVILLE P
* UL won 31-23 LY / 4-2 SU / 5-1 ATS in series

107 AIR FORCE -20'
8:00 p.m.
108 WYOMING
* 11/14 in series U


SAT 9/17

109 CINCINNATI -17
12:00 p.m. Cincinnati
110 MIAMI, OH
* C - FCS/INDY
M - QB still out

111 CONNECTICUT
12:00 p.m.
112 MICHIGAN -45
* M - Hawaii/Terps

113 PURDUE -1'
12:00 p.m.
114 SYRACUSE
* P- FCS/FAU

115 RUTGERS -20'
12:00 p.m.
116 TEMPLE
* R- FCS/Iowa

117 TEXAS ST
12:00 p.m.
118 BAYLOR -27'
* Bears won only by 9 LY - Iowa St next

119 WKU
12:00 p.m.
120 INDIANA -2
* WKU- BYE/FIU

121 GEORGIA -23'
12:00 p.m.
122 SOUTH CAROLINA
*G- FCS/KENT St

123 OKLAHOMA -8'?
12:00 p.m.
124 NEBRASKA
*OU- > Kan St
N- LOSS/BYE
$$ stay tf away

125 BUFFALO
1:00 p.m.
126 COASTAL CAROLINA -14
* CC- Ga St in 5 days
B- FCS LOSS/@EMU

127 OHIO
2:00 p.m.
128 IOWA ST -23
*ISU- HUGE W / Bay

129 UTEP -1'
2:00 p.m.
130 NEW MEXICO
* NMU- Boise/@LSU

131 OLD DOMINION
2:00 p.m.
132 VIRGINIA -9
V- ORL/ @Cuse in 6

133 SOUTH ALABAMA
2:00 p.m.
134 UCLA -15
*SA- big RW/La Tech
*FCS/@Col

135 CALIFORNIA
2:30 p.m.
136 NOTRE DAME -16
*C- 11-1 RD
*ND-BAD L / UNC

137 NORTH TEXAS
3:00 p.m.
138 UNLV -1'
*NT- FCS/@Mem
@Cal/@Utah St

139 TULANE
3:00 p.m.
140 KANSAS ST -13'
*T- FCS/SMiss
K- Mizz /@OU

141 NEW MEXICO ST
3:30 p.m.
142 WISCONSIN -34
*BAD HOME L / @ OHIO ST

143 PENN ST -2
3:30 p.m.
144 AUBURN
P- Ohio/CM
A-SJSU/MIzz

145 VANDERBILT
3:30 p.m.
146 NORTHERN ILLINOIS -1'
V- @BAMA
NI- @Tulsa L / @ Kent

147 COLORADO
3:30 p.m.
148 MINNESOTA -28
M- > @ Sparty

149 MISSISSIPPI -15
3:30 p.m.
150 GEORGIA TECH
M- > Tulsa

151 BYU
3:30 p.m.
152 OREGON -2
*BYU- OT W/Wyo
O- FCS/@Wazzu

153 GEORGIA SOUTHERN
3:30 p.m.
154 UAB -12'
*GS-HUGE RW/Ball St
UAB-R LOSS/BYE
$ UAB 13-4 OL

155 TROY
3:30 p.m.
156 APPALACHIAN ST -12'
*T-FCS/Herd
A- HUGE RW/JMU - S-won by 38,37,35 pts

157 KANSAS
4:00 p.m.
158 HOUSTON -12
*K- big RW/ Duke
H- 2 TOUGH OT games/Rice
$ Cougs outgained by 209 yds/22 pen / O -3.1-rush

159 ULM
4:00 p.m.
160 ALABAMA -55
A- TX/Vandy

161 COLORADO ST
5:00 p.m.
162 WASHINGTON ST -17
*W- > Ducks

163 LIBERTY
5:00 p.m. HC
164 WAKE FOREST -16?
*WF- @Vandy/CLEMSON

165 MARSHALL -13'
5:00 p.m. HC
166 BOWLING GREEN
*M- HUGE RW/@Troy
BG- > @Miss St

167 MISSISSIPPI ST
6:00 p.m.
168 LSU -2'
* L - FCS/NMEX

169 TOLEDO
7:00 p.m.
170 OHIO ST -28
O- > WISKY

171 AKRON
7:00 p.m.
172 TENNESSEE -42
*T- @Pitt OT W / FLA

173 CHARLOTTE
7:00 p.m.
174 GEORGIA ST -17
*G- SC>UNC/CC in 5

175 TEXAS TECH
7:00 p.m.
176 NC STATE -8'
*T-Hou/TEXAS
N- FCS/Uconn

177 ARKANSAS ST
7:00 p.m.
178 MEMPHIS -17
*A- off Ohio St
M- @Navy/NTX

179 UCF -14
7:30 p.m.
180 FAU
*U- HL/GT
F- FCS/@ Purdue

181 USF
7:30 p.m.
182 FLORIDA -25
F- OHL/@ TENN

183 SMU
7:30 p.m.
184 MARYLAND -3
*S- FCS/@ TCU
M- > @ MICHIGAN

185 MICHIGAN ST -3
7:30 p.m.
186 WASHINGTON
M- > MINN
W- FCS/TREE

187 PITTSBURGH -18'
7:30 p.m.
188 WESTERN MICHIGAN
* P- OL/FCS... REVENGE ...QB?

189 NEVADA
7:30 p.m.
190 IOWA -20'
*I- OHL/@Rutgers
$ Nev gave up 616 to IWU (IWU 145 yds in penalties too)

191 LOUISIANA -12'
7:30 p.m.
192 RICE
*L- EMU ouch/@ULM
R- FCS- 35 pt cover/ HOU

193 UTSA
8:00 p.m.
194 TEXAS -18'
*U- @Army/FCS
T- HL/@ TT

195 LOUISIANA TECH
8:00 p.m.
196 CLEMSON -34
*C- > @WF

197 MIAMI, FL
9:00 p.m.
198 TEXAS A&M -6' ??
*A- HUGE HL/ HOGS

199 SAN DIEGO ST
10:00 p.m.
200 UTAH -21
* U- REVENGE

201 FRESNO ST
10:30 p.m.
202 USC -12'
*F- LOSS/BYE
U- @ TREE/@ Beavs

203 EASTERN MICHIGAN
11:00 p.m.
204 ARIZONA ST -20'
*EM- RL/Buff
A- @ Okie St/ UTAH

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake7:

 

[BWS77]

Well hello there!

 

[lvmike32]

thanks again for posting this.

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

:shake:

 

[bookieassassin]

on the road boys - did these earlier, most available I would think
* all kinda small - need to do a deep dive into analytics this week -


one unit

UAB -11'
Kansas +10
Nebraska +14

smaller

Texas State +32
S Alabama +14'
SMU +3'
BGreen +18'


maybe/ waiting/ 2H - live?
Air Force
Vandy
Penn St
Troy
Toledo?
Memphis
Bama 1H
Rice
Purdue
NTX
La Tech


*UAB off loss > at home > bye on deck / GaSO still celebrating for months ..... but might be better than we think
*Huskers crippled by the Frost cloud IMO - should play loose and compete / OU with KST on deck, and probably overrated a bit
* Cougs off TWO OT games (3-2) in which they were outgained by 114 and 95 yds, and penalized 22X - no reason Kansas can't stay close - have another winnable game next (Duke) - don't think upset W is a negative here ....?

* Bears off really tough loss, but are tough in this spot - but a lotta points for that O. Bobcats will fight for sure, huge game for them (lost by 9 LY).
* Chip seems to be taking these games more seriously - but S Bama will come to play - Bruins have been terrible as HF vs G5 teams.
* great spot for Ponies - flaky Terps with @Michigan next. Note SP+ has SMU favored by 5 or so
* BG? - recall this (should be) a better team than the one that won at Minny LY - just gotta fade the Herd here

* AF is on a mission it looks like - to go undefeated and play in a NY6 - probably should play 1st # every week really. I hate road teams in weekday games, plus Wyoming is high variance kings - will play 2H or live if set up.
*bad spot for NI greatness - at HOME/FAVORED? - ha - Vandy NEEDS THIS (Bama next) - NI not really



Back tomorrow night I think ha - BOL this week boys ..... :shake:

 

[Wolfeman]

Great to see your outstanding breakdowns as always BA…I like that spot for Purdue. Have a great week…don’t work too hard Brotha.

 

[Fearless_goat]

Great breakdown always .
Your thought on these games ND, Geot, Oregon

 

[Yanks27Sox9]

good stuff

i can see backing nebby this week. situationally, especially in the 1H. i overreacted yesterday taking Oklahoma. the line should be between 8-9 by my numbers, so it's absolutely where the value lies if they respond well to the frost firing.

 

[2dawgnation2]

Great stuff BA! I’m like a broken record repeating myself, but a must read every week, and every year. I’m guilty of growing consumed with the “market” and just viewing numbers. You add great insights and paint new perspective. Much appreciated. BOL to us all!!

 

[bookieassassin]

added a few ....

one unit

UAB -11'
Kansas +10
Nebraska +14

WF -16'
Ga State -18'
OU/Neb 1H under 34'


smaller

Texas State +32
S Alabama +14'
SMU +3'/ML
BGreen +18'

Buffalo +14
Cal +11'
Vandy +2'/ML
Ole Miss/GT UNDER 63'
Rice +7 1H



leans


WKU at 7
Ga 1H
NMex
NTX
Penn St
Iowa
Fresno
Miami TT under
Ducks 1H


$ I'll wait and see if I can get 12 for Cal (just posted the 11' in advance) - same with Vandy, but not sure if it goes to 3 .....
Love Cal in this spot - but too much (value) lost with Irish loss LW - if it rises to 12-14 before KO I'll bump up for sure. Obviously I think Huskers compete here, esp early - if you watched OU LW they were in a life/death struggle with the ferocious Golden Flash D for a half (#127 SP+). Huskers should give an inspired effort, esp. on D, and keep this one close. Recall they have done great as a dog / weak as favorite - last 11 or so losses all by single digits. Coastal Carolina D is HORRIBLE, got pushed around by Gardiner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs - Buffalo should stay close - CC with Ga St in 5.



Dog ML parlay

UTSA 1H +285

Rice 1H +270

Nebraska 1H +250

Vanderbilt +115

SMU +114

$10 > $2283.00

 

[bookieassassin]

2dawg - good man as always - BOL this week

Yanks27Sox9 - love the Huskers at <10' - Sooners had 7 yards rushing at the half vs the Flashes, and obviously are still learning TWO complex schemes. Line was what 5'/6 before - Huskers IMO are a BETTER team without Frost.​

​

FG- there he is ...​

Irish - great time to buy low on ND? - line has dropped about 7-8 points, from what it woulda been before loss/QB injury..... BUT Cal is an absolute covering machine in this spot (somehow). Georgia I don't know why not - 1H is probably automatic (I bet an early 13'). That overrated albino QB Rattler should get torn in half - he has no OL ....uh-oh. DUCKS? - like them here .... rough spot for BYU, esp if 2 WR don't play. I like Ducks 1H - with maybe a live bet on BYU if set up. Might bet Ducks at <3'.​

​

WOLFE - initially like the Boilers (hate Cuse in this role) - but Cuse might be for real this time, and Dome is tough for a passing team (noise poses communication issues). Thanks for all the help buddy, BOL. Where TF is that crazy Eyetalian ha?​

​

LVM - thanks again man BOL​

​

BWS - THIS place is more your style ha ......​

BAR - thanks again man BOL this week

 

[Wolfeman]

Thanks BA for the plays! Hope you have, yet another profitable Saturday… and let’s hammer some Book. See ya at the Window for UAB, KU (love these guys), S. Bama, SMU, & B.Green.

Man do I love College Football….Best of Luck BA!!

 

[bookieassassin]

thanks wolfe - huskers wtf ha

adding

Kan St -6' 2H

will have week 4 lines up later today