Week 3

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Week 2- 9-1 +10.67u

YTD 11-4-1 71.9% +9.37u

Flat- 7-2-1 +4.8u
Teases 2-2 +0.8u
Team Totals 1-0 +1.0u
ML Parlays 1-0 +2.77u


Interesting card.

One to start. Missed the best number but I still like it.. I do not like my guys this week but there will most definitely be points scored. Full card to come during the week. And I can certainly give more feedback on this one overall.

New England -5.5 (-118)
Buffalo -1 (-117)

NY Giants +3.5
Philly/Cincy over 47 (-115)
Atlanta -3
Atlanta -2.5

New Orleans -3
KC/Baltimore over 53.5

Minnesota +8.5/Cleveland -1 6 pt tease
 
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Look ahead line all week was Balt -2.5. Capping wise I have been a big Balt fan. I thought they were the best team last year and I think they are still the best team. I think a full point adjustment past the key number of 3 is a bit much and at 3.5 it would be KC or nothing but i really don’t like the game.

biggest concern to me is KC’s inability to tackle thus far. They started similarly last year and obv caught fire late in the year. They will add Mike Pennel this week who returns from suspension but they are still short handed in the secondary with both CB1 and CB 2 out.

conversely Baltimore has rushed the QB as much as anyone in the league through two games yet have gotten to the QB in the bottom third of the league. If this continues, Mahomes will torch this secondary. I really wish this were a week 14/15 matchup. Going to sit back and watch the show.

final note, honorable mention to Pitt and Buffalo, but these are the two best teams in the AFC. Remember that only one bye is in play this year. This game carries a ton of weight for tiebreakers so look for added importance for KC as on paper their future schedule is tougher than Baltimore’s.
 
Last week could be the perfect springboard to a great season...

Terrific point about the ONE bye week this year. This is a HUGE game this week, moreso than in any other season.
 
New England... Just feel like an overreaction to what we saw on Monday. I fucking loathe the Patriots. So much that I'd love to root for an arch rival over them. But I think the Saints were just THAT bad Monday. LV allowed over 6 yards per play still and if you think Darren Waller is just going to run free, I am not so sure. Pats are going to run the ball with success and goad Carr into making mistakes. LV would be best served leaning heavily on Jacobs in my opinion but I don't think they will. Strong lean to the under in a ball control game as well. Could see a 23-13 type game here.

Buffalo.... I am not as high on Buffalo as most but they are solid. They are going to put this game in Goff's hands and while the Rams have looked solid, neither of these two teams has really played an opponent that showed up for the game. Some respected sharp money in on LA, but COVID travel and weird long road trips you are going to have to prove it to me. I'll take the home squad

Giants... Trendy play.. See also weird long road trip.. See also everyone hurt. See also the complaints about the field... Lot of off field distractions for Niners. I was on the Giants last week and they busted through the back door, I am on them again to defeat the mighty Nick Mullens.

Philly/Cincy... Lean to Philly on the spread. Just feel like this is a solid number to hit. Could see a lot of points here. Philly would be wise to use the attack the Browns went with last week and I think Burrow will put a few on the board to get this over

Atlanta.. Prob my fav play of the week.. I mean this is literally it... Last chance.. Atlanta, for as bad as their D has been, put up over 500 yards on Seattle and 39 points against Dallas. Chicago is a suspect 2-0. I would be shocked if Chicago came in and laid one on them

New Orleans... See above... line looks fishy right... I mean the Saints just lost to the Raiders and the Packers are unstoppable. Maybe a sucker play... I don't think the Pack are AS good as theyve looked nor are the Saints AS bad as they looked Monday. Lookahead line was 6.. We really downgrading a full 3 points?

Already gave my KC thoughts.. Lean to KC on the spread. Just don't see how one side will stop the other at all. And if one gets up by more than a TD, the other will be trying to score with their incredible offenses. Shame this game is this week.. These two teams are at least 4-6 points better than every team in the league on a neutral field and we may settle homefield in the playoffs (injuries notwithstanding) in Week 3.. Lame.
 
Not that I’m disagreeing with any, but one thing to note on the 9ers. They stayed out East after playing the Jets last week in the same stadium. No travel, just not sleeping at home for a couple of weeks.
BOL
Like ATL quite a bit and hate the Pats as well, but probably the right side.
 
Not that I’m disagreeing with any, but one thing to note on the 9ers. They stayed out East after playing the Jets last week in the same stadium. No travel, just not sleeping at home for a couple of weeks.
BOL
Like ATL quite a bit and hate the Pats as well, but probably the right side.

If the 9ers can win. My gosh. Imagine any team missing their QB1, TE1, WR1, RB1, RB2, DE1, DE2, CB1, LB2 and still being favored vs. any team. Absolutely mind-boggling

And a few of them top 10/15 in their position.
 
Not that I’m disagreeing with any, but one thing to note on the 9ers. They stayed out East after playing the Jets last week in the same stadium. No travel, just not sleeping at home for a couple of weeks.
BOL
Like ATL quite a bit and hate the Pats as well, but probably the right side.

this was factored in and I think it’s a negative this time around. I know college and pro are different but my contacts in college indicate there’s virtually no socializing at all off “campus”. So take the Niners who were decimated by injury, hated the stadium they are playing in, and essentially had to spend two weeks with each other, I see that as a negative this season




Any concern about Atlanta D, particularly the secondary? I’m already on Atlanta anyway.

Fuck yeah. They are awful lol. But we are all trained to forget what we have most recently seen. If this were opening day, with these rosters and Atlanta -3, who are we taking 9 out of 10 times.
 
New England... Just feel like an overreaction to what we saw on Monday. I fucking loathe the Patriots. So much that I'd love to root for an arch rival over them. But I think the Saints were just THAT bad Monday. LV allowed over 6 yards per play still and if you think Darren Waller is just going to run free, I am not so sure. Pats are going to run the ball with success and goad Carr into making mistakes. LV would be best served leaning heavily on Jacobs in my opinion but I don't think they will. Strong lean to the under in a ball control game as well. Could see a 23-13 type game here.

Buffalo.... I am not as high on Buffalo as most but they are solid. They are going to put this game in Goff's hands and while the Rams have looked solid, neither of these two teams has really played an opponent that showed up for the game. Some respected sharp money in on LA, but COVID travel and weird long road trips you are going to have to prove it to me. I'll take the home squad

Giants... Trendy play.. See also weird long road trip.. See also everyone hurt. See also the complaints about the field... Lot of off field distractions for Niners. I was on the Giants last week and they busted through the back door, I am on them again to defeat the mighty Nick Mullens.

Philly/Cincy... Lean to Philly on the spread. Just feel like this is a solid number to hit. Could see a lot of points here. Philly would be wise to use the attack the Browns went with last week and I think Burrow will put a few on the board to get this over

Atlanta.. Prob my fav play of the week.. I mean this is literally it... Last chance.. Atlanta, for as bad as their D has been, put up over 500 yards on Seattle and 39 points against Dallas. Chicago is a suspect 2-0. I would be shocked if Chicago came in and laid one on them

New Orleans... See above... line looks fishy right... I mean the Saints just lost to the Raiders and the Packers are unstoppable. Maybe a sucker play... I don't think the Pack are AS good as theyve looked nor are the Saints AS bad as they looked Monday. Lookahead line was 6.. We really downgrading a full 3 points?

Already gave my KC thoughts.. Lean to KC on the spread. Just don't see how one side will stop the other at all. And if one gets up by more than a TD, the other will be trying to score with their incredible offenses. Shame this game is this week.. These two teams are at least 4-6 points better than every team in the league on a neutral field and we may settle homefield in the playoffs (injuries notwithstanding) in Week 3.. Lame.
Best post of the season right here. Except don’t love Saints. Analysis spot on with that one too, but can’t trust Brees after the anthem shenanigans over the offseason. Has to prove me wrong before I believe poor play is a coincidence.
 
Double dipping. Don’t love seeing the line move but I’m not passing it up either

Atlanta -2.5
 
Thrilled to see you on pats and bills. They can close two huge parlays for me carried over from yesterday!!!
 
The reason I lean Balty on Monday night is because your chiefs have had this thing where they seemingly start slow/fall behind every week!! No team a better front runner with a lead than the ravens imo. Kc has to start the way they typically finish or I think they be in trouble.
 
A couple tough beats on that PHI over & the ATL game, the fuck. Buffalo tried to fuck us but the NFL gods were on our side on that 4th & 9. That call was as mysterious as the "tuck rule".
 
A couple tough beats on that PHI over & the ATL game, the fuck. Buffalo tried to fuck us but the NFL gods were on our side on that 4th & 9. That call was as mysterious as the "tuck rule".

yeah I felt generally good about where my head was at on these plays minus the Giants. I’m not going to classify the Saints as a bad beat but they had the ball in plus territory with all the momentum to take the lead and decided Taysom Hill should do some shit.
 
Missed the best number but put in Rams -11.5 (-115) already.
Last time these 2 played the Rams embarrassed them. This is a bad matchup for the Giants no matter what you look at. Rams losing yesterday the way they did should actually have them more ready to whip some ass.
 
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