Week 3

Capaholic

Capaholic

Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
YTD 9-4-1 +4.5u 67.9%

First glance I loved some favs, and then this happened.


Detroit +6
Falcons +1.5 (now 1 most places, would still play)
New York Jets +22 (-115)
NY Giants +6
Houston +3
Pittsburgh +6.5
LA Rams -3

Almost
Kansas City -5.5
NY Jets +22 (added)

Always open to discussion. GL to all this week.
 
Last edited:
Adding:

New York Jets +22 -115

Strictly numbers. Brown has to be worth point(s). And I am getting value at the same number.
 
I am not one to question your picks as you are far better at it than I am but how are the Jets going to score any points with that QB and that pitiful offensive line.
 
brewers888 said:
I am not one to question your picks as you are far better at it than I am but how are the Jets going to score any points with that QB and that pitiful offensive line.
Click to expand...

You can always question my picks. Nobody is infallible here. We are here to beat the book together.

I acknowledge the OL issues are concerning. But I am looking at a few things here:

Miami had the ball in the second half down 13-0 before completely setting themselves on fire. Final score obviously skews a very methodical approach the Patriots had for much of the game. I see them approaching this game similarly.

The Jets are a Top 10 defense by the analytics after two weeks, though that is definitely a small sampling and their Yards per play leaves something to be desired (Giving up long TDs doesn't help that number). Cleveland is also a Top 10 unit and in top 10 in Yards per play. Yet Falk managed to go 20-25 for 197 in largely unimportant minutes.

I am placing this wager at this point based on the following assumptions (not necessarily going to happen)

- Adam Gase will have a plan for the offense
- LeVeon Bell will be a big part of the offense
- Falk will use the short passing game to his advantage
- The Jets will score 10-14 points this week.

Unless they give up an incredible amount of yards and TDs to the Pats and/or gift more pick 6's to them, I can still be down 35-7 in the 4th quarter and be staring at the opportunity to cover. Given the track record of the Pats not covering the number over 20 (another fairly small sampling) and given their desire to get in and out of this game without injuries or bullshit, I see a heavy dose of the running game in the 2nd half allowing the Jets to stay within the number.

Or the Pats could win by 50. Either one.
 
Capaholic said:
Adding:

New York Jets +22 -115

Strictly numbers. Brown has to be worth point(s). And I am getting value at the same number.
Click to expand...

I was looking long and hard at the Patriots tt under 31.5. Then I thought the Pats could easily hang 28 before the half, and Mosley is still out. Hope you cash it!


Is the Steelers play based on perceived value from qb situation? I faded with Hawks ml last week and was thinking of fading again. That defense has looked abysmal and I'm generally higher than most on the 49ers. I was expecting a lower # tbh I figured 5.5. Maybe I just stay away
 
@Lexington 125 , I was on the wrong side with Pitt last week. Simply put, I am lower on the Niners than you are. Obv go with your numbers and your feeling on it. I try to watch as many of the previous week's games as I can through the Sunday Ticket app (they edit them into small 30 minute games) and I try to find what the overreactions will be.

Pitt has been dog shit. But one thing that you can say about them over time (despite coordinators and especially despite Tomlin), they have been able to get creative on offense. I really think Rudolph will be given the tools to succeed on offense in this one with the scheme they set out to execute. Heck, who really expects a backup QB for an 0-2 team to go on the road and hang with a 2-0 team with two road wins in their home opener. Seems like a slam dunk no?

I read into the acquisition of Fitzpatirck by the Steelers a LOT and love the balls of it. They clearly feel like they are still in this and have not played a division game yet. By week's end, the Browns should be 1-2, Bengals are irrelevant and my boys will hand Balt their first loss. So the opportunity is there for Pitt to really show something and climb back in this race.

I'm at work this afternoon. So that's the best I got off the top of my head. If you take the Niners and win, I'll be happy for you as well. I've "seen" plenty of games wrong!
 
Thanks for the response... Minka is a playmaker for sure-honestly it was a fringe play and I think the line is too high anyway so I'll be on the sidelines. Would be buying high on a favorite which is a personal no no, just wanted your thoughts. Much appreciated!
 
Capaholic said:
Generally I would have thought there would be a ton of scoring in KC tomorrow, but keep an eye on the weather. 80% chance of rain throughout the game.
Click to expand...

It’s really coming down right night. Ruined my morning plans at the pumpkin patch.
Thinking teasing big red and the under
 
So on a neutral field KC only favored by 2? Slight underdogs at BAL? The more I think about this the less it makes sense.
Arrowhead is the loudest outdoor stadium in the world. It’s insane. Send a rookie into hostile territory with less than ideal weather. I don’t see how this isn’t a bloodbath. Trying to remain unbiased but BAL has proven nothing. Wins over the worst team in NFL history (MIA) and nearly as bad (AZ.)

Is there some sort of matchup issue Vegas is considering?
 
KingKrunked said:
So on a neutral field KC only favored by 2? Slight underdogs at BAL? The more I think about this the less it makes sense.
Arrowhead is the loudest outdoor stadium in the world. It’s insane. Send a rookie into hostile territory with less than ideal weather. I don’t see how this isn’t a bloodbath. Trying to remain unbiased but BAL has proven nothing. Wins over the worst team in NFL history (MIA) and nearly as bad (AZ.)

Is there some sort of matchup issue Vegas is considering?
Click to expand...

Bad weather? Zero running game. Competent defense vs a team without its best weapons. Who knows.
 
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